Taiwan makes 40% of the world's semiconductor chips. A one-day power outage there could halt global chip supply for a year, shrinking global GDP by around 5% and triggering a devastating recession.
Taiwan produces 40% of all the chips. So if Taiwan were to go dark in the event of conflict, you have a global depression. Even if you think about the very best case scenario for China, you have a one-day war where the Chinese target the power systems in Taiwan, electricity to utilize their air defenses. And when that power goes out for one day, the entire production line of all the chips has to be thrown out. Takes about 9 months to make a single chip. So basically for a year, that whole supply of chip is gone. That's like if it's a one-day conflict, and that's if those fabs aren't being damaged, that people aren't killed. Estimates are 5% GDP contraction. Absolutely devastating to global economy.
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