Ultra Wealth Feb 19th, 2024

Nice. We'll review it, man. Always, always have to review. Any of you guys. Individual positions, broader markets. I'm here for you after all. So this is. This is the party. And here's. Here's Eric. Hey, Eric's here. Jeremy's drinking his serenity coffee. I like it. What's up, Scott? Okay.

Morning, everybody.

Morning. Morning. All right, so give me four seconds just to make sure. All right, so some fun things to look at. I'm gonna do just a very, very super fast review of last week because I had two questions come in about fades that you guys just want to kind of just. Just brush up on. Because again, this skill set can be used obviously for day trading. It certainly. It can be used for option selling. It can be used for swing trades. It can be used for option. It can be used for all kinds. And as you know, it all boils down to sentiment. Sentiment and planning. Sitting down ahead of time and saying, this is what I think is going to happen. This is what's likely. And come up with your if then scenarios. Right. If this happens, then this. If this happens, then this. So on and so forth. And just really, really know what you're looking for based. Based on the chart. So if we're looking at this particular chart right here, this particular candle pattern stock is almost irrelevant. And if it was to expect to open, because this week we're talking about earnings gaps and kind of how to predict them and what's going to happen if they start doing xyz, that's what's going to happen today. So if you were looking at this stock and it was gapping up here, what would you expect to happen, Ms. Sue, and why.

They gapped up to that line there?

Yes, ma'.

Am.

If it gapped up to there, I would expect it to. So I'm can assuming that's a new all time high. So it would fade down.

And.

Why? Because it's over earnings. Because it's an all time high. I don't know where the other support, you know, the moving averages are. I'm just gonna say they're probably below it. And there's another big. That big bull candle with all the volume.

Yeah, yeah, big bull candle. Tons of buying volume. So you had a lot of buyers.

There's 1, 2, 3.

Yeah.

And there's what, four pretty strong bull candles coming before that. So it's probably going to have to come back down and rest a little bit and maybe pop back up.

I like it. Why would it pop back up? That was interesting that you said that.

Because it's in a bull trend, it's kind of a strong bull trend. It's gonna, it is going to rest before it goes higher because the bulls are going to jump back in.

Nailed it. Great job, Sue. Perfect. Perfect job. And the fun part is later this, you know, later in the class, I'll be calling on some of you to, to predict an earnings gap for me and just kind of walk through, because here's the thing. You're going to. You're going to feel like you don't know what you're saying initially, but once you do it, 20, 30, 40, 60, 75 times, it'll start and then you. And then you. And then here's the important part. Most people just say things and never follow up on them. If you say something about a chart, go back and look at what happened. That's the key. Using candlesticks, using sentiment, using your analysis. Say whatever you want to say. And it could be, I mean, how many times have I been wrong in my career? Literally, I mean, it's almost uncountable. Like the amount I'll say, oh, this is going to go to whatever. And it just never. Right the next day it goes to zero and goes bankrupt. Like, the amount of times I've been wrong is very large. So I, But I follow up on it and if I tell people, hey, I think this is going to happen and it doesn't happen, I'll say, well, I was wrong. And then here's what I'm expecting from here, because the market's going to do whatever the market's going to do. My goal is to create what am I going to do. So when we're talking about predictions, it's okay to be wrong, but the truth is you've got to follow up on what your analysis is, and you got to really, really come up with what you think is going to happen. And the, the key is to create that prediction and then go back in time and study it and ask yourself, why? Why, why, why, why, why? That's the really, really, really big one. So this is what SMCI on that particular day did. So we did open at 5:50. So 550 we opened, we dropped like a stone, came all the way down to 5, 10 in like 30 minutes. So Eric's that $40 a share. Yes or. Yes, it is. It's $4 a share, team. And then we traded back up. And if I zoom in on this chart just a little bit. So just let me zoom in. Can I zoom in? Maybe not. Okay, this Is zooms in as I can go. So if we look at it, this particular trade is not nothing overly special. I'm just shorting. You see that giant bull candle in there? So I'm shorting into like the midpoint of that giant bull candle, and I'm just setting my stop above three bear candles. So I was expecting the stock to drop, to retest into that level and then maybe go back down. Right. Maybe it will, maybe it won't. I don't know. But I thought that it would because again, the analysis that sue did was, I thought, spot on. It's going to gap up, it's going to fade lower, it's going to consolidate, and then the bulls are going to take over. It's probably going to go higher now. I wish I knew how much higher because that was ticker symbol smci. And that wasn't this day. That was this day. So the day that we just analyzed, misu was right here. Right. This one right there. So that was that day that we just analyzed right here. So we did have a good pullback. We did rest. Right. And then the next day. Exactly. Shave bottom. So explain that shave bottom candle to me, Mr. That you said.

Lots of, lots of buying. There's like, yeah, we're jumping back in.

So jump back in instantly. As soon as the market opens, people start buying it. Ms. Nancy, is that also an inside candle? Yes or yes?

Yes.

Okay, so what do you. What's your prediction happening after this? What's your thoughts?

Well, if we gap up above that big bear candle, I think we're, we're.

Going to continue up, but we, we need to clear that big bear candle there. Okay, so when this next candle comes in, what's your thoughts? I think I'm right. Yeah, that would have been a good day. Trade day as well.

So if I hadn't been in on the swings already.

Correct. Correct, Absolutely. So this is a good day. Trade day. This is a, a good day to take some to, to be in a swing. Notice how it closes above this volume. We're going to talk about volume traps, and we always, we'll always talk about volume traps because that's the big one. But really, I mean, this volume, a lot of people always will tell you that the volume that has to be bigger than the volume that is trapping, that's just incorrect, plain and simple. So in fact, I think about it as in, let's say you're playing football and you have a defense of 10 people and the offense has seven, and they still score touchdown. You're like what we, we got scored on by less people. Come on, dude. So that means to me, like if we go above the volume that I'm looking at as a strong volume and we do it with less volume, then the bears are even more mad in this scenario. So yeah, inside candle, shave, bottom candle, you had the gap up, fade down, rest and then explosion. So it's like, hey, okay, sue said it trends, bullish. Be bullish. So you're getting in bullish on this candle somewhere. If you're looking at this trade, if you're watching this chart, if you're analyzing Tom now to come to today. All right, so this was not earnings, but this is the sell off that we got on SMCI super micro computers. So let's, let's just look at the chart here for a second because this is really, really interesting to me. I think, I think this is very interesting. All right, Scott, describe this volume to me please.

Well, previously we always talked about if you have extreme volume and an all time high, most likely it's a bad place to buy in. And then there's going to be some selling that's going to occur from there.

Bingo.

You had a lot of previous big gaps and goes.

Yep.

Kind of moving away from all moving averages too. So it's kind of out in the middle of nowhere.

So nice.

I would, me personally, I'd be cautious on getting in at this point.

I love it, I love it. Great, great, great analysis. So can everyone see that what kind of all of Scott said was extremely true?

Right.

We're very, very far away from moving averages. You have not a little bit of volume, the biggest volume on the screen at the highest price ever. Tons and tons and tons and tons of bull candles previously. So obviously we can see that the trade, like if you're in trade, if you're in bullish, like you're just so happy. But you see this candle on a Thursday or not, you know, the day doesn't matter, but the volume is just the highest ever at the highest ever price. So that means what? Don't buy here. Time to sell. Time to sell. That's right. Don't buy here. Time to sell. Laughs don't buy here. So if you're in bullish, sell. Or what if you're not in bullish? Can you make money if a market goes down by selling? Yes, you can. So the next day, Jeremy, when stock opens here, what should your sentiment be?

Bearish.

Bearish, Exactly. Or not bullish? Yeah, one of the two. Yeah, definitely don't buy but, or you're, or you're shorting or you're looking at playing something long. And let's go look at the 3 minute play on this and I'm gonna zoom in to the first three minute chart. Okay, so here is the, the pre market. And again we're gonna study pre market a lot a little bit later. But here's what's interesting to me. The pre market. Notice how we take out that volume there, right? So we're already kind of closing below pre market. And this selling again, it's very, very, very quick. That the fades, you guys remember that talking about that fades are very fast. They don't like, oh yeah, let's wait 47 hours for you to set this trade up. They're quick. So, so that means you got to plan ahead of time. So if you don't plan it ahead of time, you're gonna have, you're gonna have a hard time getting in. So this is the very first candle that comes in at market open because the market decided to be very, very kind to any single human being alive on this stock. The markets gave an absolute gift to anyone out there because who knows what's going to happen if we take out that volume. And that's amazing because do you think that this is going to happen again? Probably the answer is yes. Yep, most likely. So you're still waiting. Haven't done anything yet. Haven't done anything yet. And now at this stage you're like, okay, we got a nice little lower shadow. Notice what we're doing with pre market high. All right, starting to feel a little, little topsy turvy up here. Next candle comes in. So these are some big candles, very nice indecision candle. And then that's, that's it. This will be game over for this stock now. So if you're looking to short, right, you're probably shorting on a pullback, some type of retest and then, then that's toast my ghost. So very, very strong selling. And that's because again, it just happens so high. So you're not, you're not buying here at all. But you're, you're, if you're selling, great. So this is a very cool candle. This is a, you're looking at almost a 300 point candle, ladies and gentlemen. Very, very interesting. And the good news is I can already tell you what's going to happen on this candle because I think we all studied reversals. I'm pretty sure, pretty sure we had a whole week where we just studied reversals. This is a reversal. So if anybody wants to study them more for any particular reason that you're gonna be able to make some good money on this 99 chance that we gap up a little bit on Tuesday and we end up trading up a little bit higher and then we go back down 99 likelihood that's what's going to happen. The only, only other 1% happens is we'll gap down on Tuesday and then we'll trade up and then we'll go back down. Now why would we trade higher in this situation? Well, there's a lot of people are like whoa, we got a pullback finally because you got a lot of bulls that are here. You got tons and tons and tons of bulls but you also got people who bought here, here, here and here. They're going to be pretty trapped and they're, they're like the stock market's rigged. This, this is rigged. People. You know, oh my gosh. And then when it goes higher and they're like oh thank goodness, I can only sell for a hundred dollars per share loss. They'll sell and then there'll be a lot of people will sell them mean this is going to go lower. Letting you all know this is a reversal. Very high probability. But that's why I like fades is because you can just. This is a fade. This is a very, very interesting candle. That's what this candle does at an all time high. So feel free to put super micro computer on your list. It's not going to go to zero but I mean a pullback to 600 makes sense. A retest back into 880, 920, something like that. Anywhere up in here that makes sense. Pull back halfway in that candle and halfway into that can. You can start taking some positions or looking at it or keeping an eye on it or just watching it. Or again if you just want to say hey, here's the analysis. I'm a planet and three months later I'm going to come back and see what it did. Awesome. And or go and start looking for this gap and this type of exhaustion and find other trades that did it and see what they did. Just a practice. I'm pretty sure docusign was this type of candle. It's close. This one right here. It wasn't, wasn't even quite. I needed, I would need to go look to find something very similar to smci like the exact same. But this is, this is very similar sentiment. Right. You got this huge run up massive line. This just happened to happen on earnings and you can see it kind of pulled halfway into that level and you got that drop down. But this is still a beautiful drop on Docusign and that's 50, 60 points a share. And then eventually came all the way back up again to halfway into this big candle right, right here. And then it had another big drop. It's going to be hard to find an exact thing to SMCI because that stock has just, I mean, what was fascinating about this move team is it went from $300 a share a month ago to a thousand, a thousand and some changes. So I said Nvidia was going to be a big breakout. I was wrong. This one was a big breakout. Nvidia was still really cool, but good grief. All right, so those are some things I just want to kind of, I guess, quickly review to give you some insights. I do typically play more bull fades than I do bear fades, mostly because I'm just more of a bullish trader. And on the day trading time frame, fades move very quickly. And I have better win loss ratios with bear fades than bull fades when day trading. So that's why I mentioned day trading here specifically. So the bull fades, I'm normally playing these as swings or option selling or investment style positions. Buying some shares, adding to a position, selling some puts. But when I'm day trading I generally, generally focus a little bit more on bears and I do have a big win loss ratio. But that's the, the bull fades is usually, usually more of a credit swing trade style approach to the bull fades. For me, just to kind of wrap up our piece on fades. So this week and today specifically, we're going to talk about again going into more gaps, just really, really dialing in on earnings gaps when we talk on Thursday. You all probably will never sleep the same once you know about short squeezes. So sorry in advance for ruining your life. It's one of those things that takes, it's a hard one to get over once you know about how short squeezes work. Okay, so here's some, some pieces on how to plan for earnings. And we're going to do all this together today. But here are six steps of what I do. I know it sounds simple, but when I say plan for earnings, I literally mean before earnings gets here. Doesn't. I don't do this on every stock, obviously. I just do this on the stocks that I care about, the stocks I'm invested in, the stocks I want to be invested in. I go through everything and I ask myself, what's it going to do? How do how do I plan for it? So notice the trend. Do all the work that we talked about on week one and two. Look through all the moving averages daily, weekly, monthly, right? 100, 210, 20, 50. Look, know where everything's at. Come up with three scenarios at least. I guess I should have wrote it down at least. Sometimes I'll say big gap up, small gap up, small gap down, big gap down. But you always should have a flat every now and then. Earnings don't do anything. I don't know if you guys ever played roulette. So when you hit the 00 double zero, just a flat open and then make sure you know and you think through and you really ponder. How does everyone feel in the above three scenarios? A gap up, a gap down and a flat open. Right? Flat open is generally self explanatory. But if you're going in and you're really bullish and you do a flat open, you know, you need to know what type of time horizon you're playing, right? If your options or whatever you're trading, like you need to know something. And then this is a big one for me. Who is in the most pain if the stock opened xyz. And a lot of times I will go through some earnings gaps and I will take some earning strategies just based on who would be in the absolute most pain if it gapped up or gapped down big. So as we get into, when we discuss options in April, we will be going over earning strategies and how you can play options going into earnings. And we'll make sure we have really good earnings, just awareness. But the reason I'm still studying all the charts before we get to the strategies is because charts what matter strategy doesn't. You can just buy stock or sell stock and if you know what you're doing, you're going to make tons of money. So you don't need options to make good money. But you do need, you do need to know sentiment and do need to know how to read candles and you do need a good practice of you creating your plan ahead of time and then just practicing, practicing, practicing. And then I will review six and I'll try to figure out what, what looks interesting if there's a, if there's a noticeable trend. For example, when I say review elastics earnings, what that does is it just kind of helps me see is like is earnings trending up? Are we trending down? Do they normally gap up? Do they normally gap down? Is it like literally coin flip down, up, down, up, down, up, down, up. Have we gapped down every single time on earnings. Have a gapped up every single time on earnings. By the way, I normally go with the trend, FYI, so if we've gapped down the last six earnings, I'm probably gonna play a gap down again. I'm gonna lean more towards that perspective, and I'm gonna say, okay, if we gap up, here's gonna be some people that are really trapped. So I'm a trend trader, ladies and gentlemen. Always remember that, trend trader. You will make more money trading trends just knowing what they are and knowing when they end. Jeff, hit me.

I have a question.

So if on the day of earnings, like Nvidia is Wednesday, I think this, this week. So if you see a stock that day moving in that direction, what's the probability of it gapping in the direction the way the stock is moving that day?

50%. Yeah.

So that doesn't, that doesn't sway your mind? Like, oh, like Coin this week, Coin was going up consistently all week, and then it had earnings, I believe, and it just rocketed up after that. So, like, what would that, would that indicate to you? Like, everyone's very bullish on this and there's behind the scene news or anything like that?

No, no, it's a good question. I mean, I do like playing stocks going up into earnings because people get really, really excited about the news. There's a very, very popular phrase in the stock market. Buy the rumor, sell the news. So before I answer Scott's question, I'll tell you a quick story about Warren Buffett. But I get a lot of people that ask me, like, hey, if a stock has really good earnings, why does it go down sometimes? So there's a famous story that, that Warren Buffett walks into a boardroom meeting with a company and he's like, hey, how we doing? And the boardroom's like, bro, we're crushing it. We're slaying it. We're making money hand over fist. Couldn't be better. And Buffett's like, awesome. Leaves the boardroom, sells everything. So why do you. CEO said we couldn't do, we can't be better. Couldn't be any better. So Buffett sells it. All right, well, hey, if you can't be any better, this is it. We're at the top. So saying all that to say you can have a really good run up into earnings. And I do love playing, ladies and gentlemen. I love, love, love playing run ups into earnings. But on earnings day, I, I, you're gonna know as much as I Do, I mean, it's a, it is a coin flip, truthfully. And you can get, and I can get pretty good 50% or more with option trading. I can get that 50 to 60% with, with earnings because you can sell volatility. We'll talk all about that in April. But you can sell volatility, you can buy volatility, you can protect yourself. You can come up with math formulas. But it is a, it's a coin flip. And I love having shares over earnings because shares don't go to zero overnight 99.9999% of the time. And then it's just a numbers game. Right. If it goes up a dollar, you make a dollar per more per share. But yeah, it doesn't really matter. And we're going to look at today, we're going to have some of you guys and Jeff, I'll have you do some predictions as well. But we're going to look at some charts that have earnings this week, some big names and I'll see what you guys think they're going to do and we'll create all of it based on these six steps. Scott, what was your question, big guy?

So I know we talked previously about buying options around earnings. What because you pay like extra fees for the, the calls or puts or whatever for options and everything like that, would you always buy in the money to be safer on that or because it has to move a certain dollar amount for you to be profitable on them? So some stocks aren't going to move that much on calls.

Yep.

To make money. Is that I'm looking at it right or wrong?

No, you're correct. Yeah, I, I normally buy out of the money options just because they're cheaper and I, I'm assuming I'm going to lose on them anyway. So I'd just rather would spend less money. Yeah. So over earnings, if I buy options, I, I generally do buy out of the money because if it does have a huge, huge move and then it just crushes, you can do really well. Yeah, you can do really well. Joe says if the overall trend is up but the last six earnings it drops, the earnings trend is still more dominant. That's a really good question, Joe, because I, I don't know how rare or how popular that is, but I would be a contrarian in that example. So if the trend was bullish, Joe, in the last six earnings we gapped down, I would have bare protection with an upside. Fingers crossed. If we gap up type of sentiment in that example because of the trend, I'm I'm still going with the trend. Yeah. The answer is yes, the trend is still more dominant. So the overall 6 earnings gapped down, but the trend is still bullish. My thought is, well, if we gap down, we're still going to go higher anyway at some point. Right. We still likely will have some type of bullish move because that's the trend. Does that make sense, Joe? So I would, I would still have a sprinkle of bearishness in my analysis and I might have a put or two, but I would still kind of lean more towards the long. Kind of like Google.

Thank you. Yeah, and I wasn't clear on from the way you said it before, I wasn't 100% sure. So I wanted to clarify.

Yeah, thank you for clarifying. And I would say that's probably exactly like Google. Right? Google overall trend is bullish. And we gapped down the last two earnings. And so even after we gap down, we end up going higher over time. Yep. Oh yeah, Scott, Walmart's gonna be one we'll look at. It's gonna be a very interesting little, little cookie to analyze because I would, I'll fill you guys in on exactly what I think's gonna happen on that one. Okay, here's. So there's three ways that I plan for earnings because Jeff had this question and so did a couple of others. Number one, check trading view. Then I go to earnings whisperer.com because trading view is not always correct. It just kind of gives you an idea. So I check and then I verify and then step set. Step three, you're going to love this one. I set a calendar reminder for the stocks I am in or I care about. You know, it's pretty easy. Set a reminder, good old Siri, Apple, Google, whatever. And then if you really, really, really need to verify, go to the company's website. It'll tell you under Investors Relations if you have shares. Sometimes they'll email you, sometimes they'll mail you a letter in the mail if you have enough shares. Like Nancy, right when you got, when you guys go on Nancy's, they'll call you like yo nance, reporting earnings. So yeah, these, these are the four things that I do. I mean I check Trading View and I verify earnings whisper.com and then I set a reminder. That's, that's the three ways I do it. You do it those three ways. I haven't been wrong yet. Just double verifying and then sending a reminder. And if you really, you're unsure, it's probably a small company and you should probably go to the company's website or if it's like their first earnings release in like seven months or whatever, whatever. Say if it's something weird, just go to their website and kind of verify it. Okay. So again, we're going to talk a lot about more about options and effective options use over earnings on month four. Again, way one play share shorter long flip a coin. Again, using options effectively, you can create the coolest earning strategies of all time and you can come up with very, very high probability scenarios. But you still need to know after earnings what's going to happen. Still really, really important to know. This is, that's why it's in bold. It doesn't matter what you do into going into earnings, you still need to know what's going to happen after earnings based on your analysis. So here we go. We're gonna go look at three. I know Jeff is in the car, so let me know if you get out of the car. Jeff, we're gonna have Joe and then sue and then Scott. So Joe, I want you to do cat Cava. Sue, you get Nvidia. Scott, you get AI. So these are three socks that are having earnings this week. I'll do the screen share to make it easier. Just remember what tickers you got. And Joe, let's go look at Cava and I'm gonna have you break it down for me. All right, Cava? All right, so you just tell me where to go and I will do it.

Okay. First to check the monthly mas on weekly and daily.

Right.

It looks like it's gone up quite a bit. So there aren't much for moving averages, just the daily ones. The 10 is the next closest and then the 20.

This is the only. This is all the data we got on it.

Yeah. So nothing on, on the monthly yet. So it does definitely looks to be in an uptrend currently getting close to previous all time highs.

Yep.

Yeah. So the weekly. On the weekly then the Emmys, we have a couple of them, but again they're, they're lower so.

Pretty far away.

Yeah. So and then the daily, they're, they're closer obviously, but potentially if it comes down, it could bounce off those. Looks like we have an inside day currently, so could just be consolidating a bit for coming into earnings.

Mm.

So if it gaps down potentially it'll, it'll gap down into the, the 10 EMAs. Potentially lower. And if it goes up, it could head for the all time highs and then beyond.

Okay, so what would your thoughts be if it opens here.

It opens, there'll be some profit taking that'll probably fade back down depending on the volume. I guess it'll fade down a bit and then people will support to, to pop back up whether it's being strong.

Okay, so that's plan number one. All right. And then if it gap down, so where, what's your thoughts here?

Probably down to the moving averages potentially.

Is it open, open down here somewhere?

Yeah.

Okay.

If that's the case, it could, it could then draw potential to the 20 because it'd be a gap and go at this point in time anyways.

Before.

It gets some support to potentially move back up.

I like that. Okay, so you're saying like if it opens here, it could trade down into here, consolidate and then potentially go back higher.

Yeah, I guess wait and see what happens how what earnings are really like. If it's decimating, then yeah, consolidate and drop off again. If it wasn't that bad, it could break back above.

Perfect. And what if it opens flat?

If it opens flat, then. I think it'll probably go for the all time high again being that it's the bull in a bull trend.

Okay, and then what?

Be some profit takers there and then probably take it off again.

So this is what you think. Something like that, potentially. Okay, which one would you like to play or which one would you like? Which one do you feel the most comfortable with?

Probably the last one. I don't know the company that well to know about their earnings. But wouldn't it ultimately depend on how the earnings come in?

Sure.

Like you decide ahead of time which one or wait to see how earnings come in and then go from there. Pick one of the three angle.

Yeah, good question. So I, I normally do, I look at this, I look at it because the earnings, they can essentially come in however they want. I mean it's obviously important if you're an investor, if you know the company, you like the company. But from a just straight up trade standpoint, you're absolutely correct. I'll oftentimes look at this and go, I wonder what it's going to do. Like I don't even care what earnings do. I'm just interested in the gap because the gap, if it gaps is going to help me kind of understand how to trade it in this exact situation. If we open flat, Tom, and didn't do anything, so we just opened here and then we traded up into 60, I'd probably look to short just because it's, you know, we're at, we're at A high price and we've gone from 30, so that'd be 30 to 60. So that's a hundred percent return on whatever the heck this company is. Although I do know it, it's a US company, they do like fast food salads. So for whatever that's worth, trades up into like, if it got up into 60 after a flat open, I probably short it because 60 to like 63, let it trade back down to that resistance. I mean you could. That's still $6 a share for a $3 risk, you know. So that's a possibility, possibly number one for me. I love what you said here. Like if it gapped down below the 10 on the weekly. So if I go to the daily chart, we can see where those weekly moving averages are. And you'll notice right here, this is the daily chart. So the weekly, we're right at the 50 EMA. So in order for us to open below, we have to open below the 50. And that would definitely be a very, very, very strong gap. I mean that'd be a large gap too. So that would be like us at 17%. So you'd have some people probably buy it a little bit, but trade up into here and then it would go lower into 43 if it gapped all the way down there. Because you look at all these people that are trapped, right? Tons and tons and tons of people, lot of people trapped. So yeah, a gap down to here would probably be the most vicious thing possible on cava. And a gap up, since we're already so high, would be likely a fade opportunity. And so even if it doesn't gap that high, it could still fade because we're at a resistance. So if it opened here or here or here or here, it could still fade because we're so, so much higher. So that tells me that what is the best risk reward possibility for me is probably to the downside on this particular stock. If I was going to play it, it's like I'd probably buy puts because if it gaps up even a little bit here, here, here, here, we're going to be at a previous all time high. We're going to be at a previous resistance. We had tons and tons and tons of buyers that are profitable. So there's not a lot of trapped people and there's not a lot of trapped bears that we can see. So then we would probably, if we gapped up, we'd probably fade down. And then I would say, all right, cool. And I would prefer a gap down because a gap down, you're going to trap the most people right here. Unless we start trading sideways into earnings for the next week and a half to two weeks and we do nothing. And we just have a bunch of bear candles, indecision candles coming into earnings. Then we go back and look at the weekly chart. I was like, okay, well, it would only be a good gap if it opened above 60, because then you have this guy trapped and then whoever's creating this upper shadow, because this is the end of the week. So you do have some upper shadows here from the end of the week. So if we continue to trade sideways all the way until earnings and then a lot of indecision comes in, we might have some bears that are trying to short up here to take, take profit. But that's exactly. I would say the, the best risk on this one is to the downside. Like the best potential profit captures to the downside. Unless it trades sideways to bearish all the way until earnings. And then if it'd have to gap above 60, but even if it gapped above 60, I think still people would take profits pretty quickly and open. So you'd have to get out of your bull trade pretty fast. So now what we can do is we go. All right, cool. Here's earnings. December 23rd. Sorry, period. The period ending was of December quarter of last year, the 27th of February, Tuesday. And then you can click on the last earnings. Last earnings. They surprise with a good number. Last earnings. We only have two to go from since it's pretty new. Yeah. So relatively new company. So that's the other thing too. Right. Is, you know, if they come up with anything bad. We only had two earnings. A gap down is possible. Everyone who's in this trade is profitable. I mean, we're at all time highs. There definitely could be some good profit taking. So now I'll put this on my list. I'll go, all right, sweet. Next Monday, I'm gonna go look at this stock and go check it out. Okay. The Next one was Nvidia. All right, Ms. Sue, lead us to profits. Everyone's just gonna do whatever you say.

Okay. So pretty much the same process. Need to go look at the monthly. Weekly, daily. Although we kind of know it's all, it's all bullish. It's been Nvidia for the last couple months.

Yeah, but what you're, what you're right about is like the candles, right? We can still look at the candles and go, why do the, you know, why do the candles matter? This is another big breakout reason. Remember, guys, when we were so bullish on Nvidia because we had an inside month right there. That whole month was inside. Then we had that huge breakout and we went from 500 to 725. Yeah. Love it.

Yeah, I sold around 700. Should have stayed in it, but it's gonna have to rest and retest. It can get back in. So.

Yep.

And just looking at the pattern monthly, it. It just shows that going bullish for 8, 9, 10 candles and then have to rest and retest a little bit, take a breath and go back up. So just from, just from that chart right there, that's kind of what I expect it to do again. But it's went up a lot. What is that? 500, $224 in two months. So yeah, I think it's gonna have to take a breath and then go back up higher again. So need to look at the weekly. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 full candles and an indecision candle. Lot of people profitable. If it was me, I would probably think about selling for sure. So we're going to probably get some sellers. So probably going to gap down a little bit still. All the moving averages are down below us holding that up. Volume is pretty much the same. All bullish volume. Well, it's not all. There's got to be sellers because there's buyers. But I guess we'll look at the daily. Okay. Earnings is in two days. All right. I don't know. It's all time high. So what did it do on the last two or three earnings? That gaffed up big time, didn't it? Trying to go off of my memory.

Because this one was a small gap down.

Yeah.

More or less flat really. But it had a good earnings. Yeah, this one did gap up and this one had a really good gap up.

Yeah, that was the one I was remembering. So like you say, it's just a coin flip really if it's going to gap up or gap down. But if it gapped up pretty big, I would expect it to fade for sure. At least maybe down into the 10, take a breath and go back up higher again. And my sentiment on Nvidia, it's. It's got a rest for a little bit.

Yep.

But it's. Yeah, okay. Probably headed to a thousand.

Okay, I'm listening to what you're saying. What about a gap down?

Gap down. If it gaps down, there's gonna. There's gonna be some people hurting because there's probably a lot of people like me that really think it's just still going to go to the moon and they might be holding on and if it gaps down, let's see, They probably are going to be kind of in some pain. Might be some, I don't know, pain selling, some panic selling, but. I doubt it's going to go further than the 20. What is that, 6, 669?

Yeah.

I'd love it to go down there. Would get back in.

What was that? What did you say?

I said I would love it to get down there. I would get back in.

Yes, you would. I think other people would too. Yeah.

Then, then from there it would go back up.

Okay. Okay. I love that. So again, listen to what you say team pretty closely because I agree with everything you said and I do think that if it gapped down, like, let's say it opened here or here or here. I don't foresee it opening below the 20. And this is. I'll give you my thoughts on Nvidia team. But I, I think Nvidia will gap up. And the reason is because there's just so much hype. Everyone's talking about it. It's all. Is everywhere. They just surpassed Google as the largest, like one largest companies in the world. So, you know, it was a big move. They're $1.8 trillion, so they passed Google and Amazon. So it's really, really, really, really massive. So I think that hype, I think that hype's gonna lead to a gap up. Now here's where it's interesting again. I just, I just think it's gonna gap up because the trend's bullish. Last few earnings gaps are gapped up. So I think we'll gap up and you'll trap this guy, this guy, and this guy pretty badly. And we'll have a little bit of a push higher and people be like, holy smokes. And a little bit of FOMO kicks in and everyone starts to buy it. And then like you said, man, sue, then we get some nice little quick little selling event. I don't think the bull trade up there would be the highest probability trade in the world, but you definitely have some people that are trapped. And again, if it does gap up up there, I think a lot of FOMO will kick in. There will be some buying, but it'll be a quick flash in the pan. It wouldn't last very long because we're so, so, so high, Tom. And it's so bullish. People need to take some profits. Now. If we do gap down on earnings, I think we probably are going to open flat. That's probably, in my opinion, the most likely event. We just have a very, very, very, very, very small gap down. Nothing really happens, and we just kind of end up trading down to the 20. And then we get a bounce off the 20 and then we probably go higher a little bit too. I would agree with you. 20 is gonna be a good little buying spot, a gap down. I don't know what they'd have to do to gap down. I mean, they're gonna have good earnings. Like, the earnings numbers are gonna be good because again, team, remember, as the stock goes up in value, they make, they're making more money, right. The companies are worth more. They're able to take loans, they're able to do more research and development, hire more employees, yada, yada, so on and so forth. So they're doing well. So I'd be very, very, very surprised for a huge gap down. I know what would cause the huge gap down. But if it did have a huge gap down, people would be a little bit terrified for a quick second. And then they would be buying the heck out of it because they would, they're like, oh, sweet. I would you get, we get a dip. What a gift. And if Sue's gonna be buying again, that means that a lot of people are gonna be buying again. And we can see that it's a retest gap, right? You got bear candle, bear candle, double bear candles, gapping down like those bears. Whoever shorts up here, whoever's brave enough to shorten video, they're. They're profitable, so they're happy. They know they're shorting into a massive bull trend. So they would cover and then we go higher. So I, I don't even think a gap down, a very big gap down is likely. I would say 78% chance of flat to, you know, up or down. Very, very small. And then 21% chance gap up. Those are my thoughts. A big gap down would be really surprising. Really surprising. And, and it will be a very, very good money making opportunity for us if that happens.

I definitely agree with that. It just, it looks like it's probably not going to gap a lot either way.

Yeah. But Nancy says, can we go back and look at the November 2021. It was at a high and gapped up. November 2021. Yeah, girl. Freaking nailed it. Good job, Nance. Absolutely crushed it. So this is, this is exactly what I was kind of referring to right there. Good job, Nancy. There you had that beautiful gap up, right? And what a great gap and go right. Really, really good gap. But if we go back and look at it and just kind of again, analyze it and let's just, let's just look at, I don't know, these, these three candles. Did Nvidia have a really, really good run up, like. Yeah, absolutely. You had some beautiful opportunity. So much bullishness here. And this is probably exactly what I would expect Nvidia to do if we gapped up on earnings. This is exactly what I think it's going to do. It's going to be a little bit of a challenge to catch. But again, this is what a flash in the pan looks like. You're gonna have two, maybe three days to make money on Nvidia. If it gaps up and it's not gonna be very easy. You're gonna have to catch pullbacks and you're gonna have to buy a rip and get out pretty quick. Good job, Nancy. That just helped me make a bunch of money. Cause if Nvidia does gap up, which is a 21% likelihood, that's what's gonna happen. Jeff?

Yeah.

I have a question.

Would you ever actually click on the earnings and go into the financials? Because I do that sometimes to see if they have more liab and stuff like that to see if I know this company is not a company that's actually in trouble. But sometimes you see a company that's actually in trouble and you can kind of like judge what to do with it. Do you ever actually go into it a thousand percent?

Yes, dude. Of course now you're going to be better at the balance sheets than I am. But I just kind of look at, just. I just kind of view it from cash flow, increasing revenue. Are they, are they spending more, making more? Yeah, I just look at it from the basics. I'm sure there's other, like, deeper things that you could study, but I'm just a basic. Like if revenues are going up and profits going up, they're gonna probably go higher over time.

Yeah.

Okay. Great job, dude. Yeah, good one.

We're gonna call you and Scott.

Yeah. Oh, yeah, just call them for sure. Review my balance sheet. All right, team. Well, that's Nvidia. Now that this is gonna be a big earnings this week, so don't get caught sleeping. Jeremy, can I ask you a question about Nvidia earnings? Yep.

I see a lot of people right now saying that if, if they do.

Get down, that it's gonna pull the.

Rug out from all the tech stocks that are currently, you know, staying strong because Nvidia is holding them all up. What are your thoughts?

That, the 1% likelihood. I mean, because there can be so many people that are, are going to, are expecting Nvidia if it goes down. Like if they just get, I mean, I guess it'll depend on the size of the gap. Like if it opened here, it would absolutely fade. I mean, because everyone is going to be like, oh my gosh, like all the noobs, they're not going to sell because it will cause a market to move for sure. But the noobs wouldn't sell if we had a huge gap down because they're like, oh God, just buy more. I just feel like the trend is so, so, so strong in this example that if it does gap down it would fade. And so we'd have a big quote unquote, what I call a capitulation event in the microchip community where loss stops would gap down. But everyone's gonna think that that's a buying opportunity. In my opinion, they would buy it and we just go higher. It would slowly fill the gap. So it'd be a rug pull for a day and there'd be a lot of stops lost, there'd be a lot of stop losses. But a big gap down Nvidia and I'll look for a buying opportunity. Got it. Thank you. Yep. And I mean again for my option people, Nvidia is going to be a really cool one to consider put sales on. Right. Because again a put sale you're going to win unless it has a huge gap down. And obviously I know that Nvidia is pricey, so it's like you're selling a put on video, you better have some cash. Right? But if it does gap down, it's like, well you could get some share ownership at 580 and you could sell a put this Friday at 580 and get, and get a little bit of premium. And then you, every scenario that I just planned out, like, you know that less than a 1% likelihood that you get some shares at 5:80 and if you do, you get some shares at 580, which means what's the likelihood that you can sell them at 620 in March sometime? It's like it's probably, probably pretty good. Most, most likely because that's the trend, right? The trend is bullish. And for, for Nvidia to overtake Google and Amazon so quickly? I mean that's a, that's a big deal. It's a really big deal. So I'm gonna go to Walmart, Scott, to go through my question and answer on Walmart. And then I will let you do ticker symbol AI. So what's really interesting about Walmart is they did announce a split which is fantastically interesting and I am really, really interested to see what happens on, on earnings. But it's my, and it's my thought process that we're going to gap down on earnings a little bit. We just gapped down the last earnings but if we do gap up we're going to end up trading back down because we just hit a new all time high. I had a collar on Walmart so I sold my shares. I got called away at 165 this past Friday for a decent little win. Had a good pyramid in it. That was a boring, nothing special about that. But the thing is with splits, Walmart announced a split right around here. Now I did not know that it was going to split but it announced a split not that long ago. And Nancy, you know this, what do I always say about stocks that announce a split?

I don't remember, I'll tell you.

I guess I would buy it and then wait for it to split.

They go down.

That is correct. They buy the split. Stocks go up going into the split. They go down after the split like 85% of the time. It's a very, very high probability. So when they announce the split, buy the crap out of it and then after the split sell it. Now the, the psychology behind that, and this is weird, I know, but when you get a split you get less stock but the value is the same. But if people who are unaware of this go and log into their broker and they're like what the heck, why do I only have what's going on here? I have more. I'm so confused. And so they get, they have more shares and they think they're richer even though the value is the same. They sell them because they have more of them. I don't know why people do that, but they do. This is just the trend, this is what I've noticed. So when you get a stock split you have more shares at a less price. People start selling those more shares because they have more of them to sell. That kind of makes sense I guess, maybe a little bit. But going up into the split, people want the stock because it's going to split and they're going to be able to own more at a lower price. So these are the intelligent investors and these are the ones that haven't read Intelligent Investor by Benjamin. So I usually buy up into splits and then sell into splits. So I'm out of My Walmart position. We have a high wave, Doji. An all time high I think we're going to have. If we gap up, that's fine. But if we gap up, we're going to fade down on Walmart because again, blue chip stocks, right. Gapping up into all time highs, they're probably going to fade. So Walmart gap up, we fade back down and then I'll start, I'll probably pick up some shares. Walmart again, this is one I go in generally like probably every once a year, once every two years at a good price because it's Walmart. It's like what's Walmart going to do? You know, it's going to go higher eventually. All right, Scotty, you get to crush us with ticker symbol. I gave you an advanced one so I'm interested to see what you think.

Sweet. All right. I would start same as on the month chart.

Okay.

Looks like the only moving average that is there is the 100.

Well.

10 and 20 on the ones playing.

1020. Yeah. Yep. Looks like it's kind of just going sideways the last two months, three months, four months.

Yep.

So I would, I'd probably mark where the big bold candle closed as a resistor and then I'd probably mark the bear candle. Yep. Then I would go into my weeklies from there.

Okay. Weekly chart.

So you got the start of a T10 EMA possibility trade.

Hey, nice, nice. Good find. Yep.

Really still at all resistors. I wait to probably get into the trade above where that 3114 is to see if it breaks that trend now. And then I'd go to the daily from there. On. The daily again, kind of a 10AMA setup. You got a hammer. That just happened two days before good bear candle came in.

Yep. So what are you thinking from open and close? Let's do a. A long. Where do you think the most damaging open would be for the bears?

I think it has a good possibility to go in for the bears to open.

Okay.

If it gaps up around the $32.

Mark, got a massive pump. Yep.

It's just kind of going sideways. It's in a lot of resistors right now with earnings coming up. Earnings has always been positive, but they've dropped.

Yes, yes. So that's probably why you said that it most likely is going to gap down or. Or the. The is a little bit more bearish, huh? Yeah. So if it, let's say opened here, what would your, what would your thoughts be?

But open there? I would say it's gonna probably Retest back down to support level. If it doesn't break that, then it's going to climb back up to the resistant level. And then it seems usually they go higher after that. So I'm assuming that it's going to break the resistor at that point.

Okay.

I don't know anything about the stock.

Oh, it's okay. Yeah. I love, I love that analysis right there, dude. I love it. I think you absolutely nailed it. I would give that a 55 likelihood of happening. Now, what if we open here?

I would expect the fade down because everybody's going to be profitable. And then you have a lot of bears trapped.

Yep. How far would it fade down, do you think?

I don't think it would go back down to where the resistor is. I. I think it would stay above that probably by like a dollar or two. Probably in like. Yeah. Mid 32s. And then it would probably stop there.

And then go higher.

Yeah. Then probably retest and go higher.

Okay.

Now that you broke. Broke everything.

I like that. Yeah, I like that perspective a lot. And. And I would agree. I love how you said that if we opened above 35, you're gonna have a lot of bears that are trapped. So you got these guys, you got these guys, these guys, you know, this, this, this dude, all that volume, that volume, these volumes. So, yeah, a lot of people trapped if AI was a gap up above 35, but you do have a lot of people that are profitable. So I love that plan. And so I would say put this on your watch list. I know it's a little later, two weeks away, but you can at least just see, like, okay, cool. Here's what I thought's gonna happen. Let's see what actually happened. And I would give the big gap up probably a 20 likelihood. And so the only other likelihood for me would be just a flat open. With what. Which would be probably a 30 likelihood. So gap down, trade down to the support, and then the balance is the highest likely possibility on AI to me. And that's just because it's. That's what's done recently. We're still trading sideways. And in general, we're still going. We're still kind of going down the most amount of people. And again, we'll talk about this on the options. But the most amount of people that would be trapped is with a gap up. Right. We gap above 35. That's definitely gonna be the most amount of people that are trapped. So I would. If I was gonna take a play on that, I would go get some $35 call options or some bull perspectives above 35 because we gap down, people will be trapped but they'll just like, like Scott said, they'll just eventually take profit and they'll, it'll bounce again. You can definitely make some money on a downward gap. But if it open above 35, there's also a likelihood that it hits 40 within a week because you have so many people that are trapped. Be a really, really, really strong gap and go. And I love how you found the 10 EMA on the weekly sky. Good job.

Yep.

Nice tiny man weekly. So again, is that going to happen? It's like probably, probably not very likely. It's unlikely event but you know, it could always occur. So if we go back and look at Roku for my boy Jeff, the reason that this sold off so big and so if we go analyze it really quickly is because we had a bunch of bull candles, you'll notice right before earnings. If I zoom back out over here. So I zoom back. So look at that volume spike that came in right before earnings. Really, really good bull volume spike, good buying candle came in, got a good hammer. We were trading above the hundred on the daily. So there's that blue line. We were trading above the 200 on the daily. And really since last earnings, last earnings, we had bad earnings and gapped up. So they, they lost their estimate. This earnings, we had good earnings and we gapped down. So there you go. Riddle me that. There's, there's the coin flip. Roku is a stock that gaps a lot. So if you go back and look at this one. So this earnings gap was. Let me just do this really quick. So the last earnings gap, this was gap down 20%. This earnings gap up, gapped up 20%. This earnings didn't do anything, which is rare. This one gapped up 10% and then ended up continuing higher 25% the next two days. This one had a 18% gap up and yeah, this was a big gap down. So yeah, Roku just historically does have big gaps. Usually you got a bunch of people trapped and when it opened, so you'll notice it opened below the 200 and look how the 200 acted as a really, really nice resistance. So the 200 there act as a good resistance because that's really where we opened. So we took out the hundred but we trapped and anyone who bought in there was losing money. And if you look at it at a quick glance, it was more bulls than bears. And Jeremy probably saw this pattern, a little bit of an inverted head and Shoulders pattern there, close with the neckline. We were expecting it was expected to go higher and just didn't. Got really, really pummeled. So then if we pop into a day trade, right, knowing that it did gap down and then we pop in here and just look at a five minute chart. So if we're looking at a five minute chart and we had done all of our analysis and everything ahead of time, what we're going to notice is okay, we got the 200, but look at that. Really, really good bull candle came in right there acting as a protection, acting as some buyers and then all those buyers got smoked. And this is a really good short opportunity for, you know, shorting shares or buying puts or whatever because again, you're just using all of that analysis from the daily weekly. You're below everything makes sense team. So you start putting all that together and you just look at all of it and compile of it and just spend a little bit of time. I usually spend somewhere between 10 to 15 minutes on each earnings that I care about, just kind of analyzing it and go, okay, what, what do I think is going to happen here and why. And now Roku is back below the 100 on the weekly. So which is the big blue line. So ultimately my thought process would be something like this probably happens if I had to guess because again, big selling, you got a double top looking thing here. What's the overall trend on Roku? Right. Overall trend is down still. You're still going to have more of a downward bet. And yeah, good gap, good volume. That's my, my expectation is it goes lower and then does what? Well, probably fills this gap from last earnings. Right. It's probably the next thing that it does. I'll just, I'll come in down here and Tom, draw a line there and I'll just say gap. I'll write gap fill. So don't know. But anyway, just again, just working on the, the earnings perspective and just kind of like coming up with who's gonna be the most trapped and who's gonna be making the most money. I think we would know that if Roku gapped up to here on earnings, it would have faded.

Right.

You had a bunch of bull candles in before, you know, all these people that were profitable, the people who bought off the hundred because they were expecting, you know, the S curve. Right. They were expecting essentially this. So if you got that and you got that gap up, it probably would have been a good fade. All right. I think it's a good buying opportunity when it goes down to 50ish area.

I was watching it like last in 20, 23, and it was just kind of hovering around 40, $50. Then you had that earnings in like November, I think. Or maybe it was September or earlier than that where it like, it just like skyrocketed.

Maybe it was actually later than that.

But skyrocketed up to like a hundred bucks.

Yeah. No, dude, Roku is a volatile cookie. This is the. This is the big one right here. That was a very, very nice gap. Very good earnings gap. And then this one, this one right here was.

That's the one.

Yeah. Yeah. So long story short, the answer is yes. I mean, if we're looking at it, if we just look at a weekly and just look at just the candles here for a second and really kind of zoom in. I'll turn all my lines off for just a moment. I mean, you know, Roku did make a lot of money on that earnings. They almost made a billion dollars that quarter. And if it trades down into that 50ish price zone, we can see that it's bounced here before. Yeah, somewhere around 50. Makes sense. We'll get down there. Yeah, man. Low 50s. Let's keep an eye out for it. It's at 72, so we got some room to go. Yeah. All right. Broader markets. The markets are closed today, but here's the cues. And again, I really don't think anything overly scary is going to happen with the Q's or the broader markets. Just my opinion. The trend's still bullish. You do have a bearish engulfing candle with good volume. We had a bear gap down, which is a retest gap. So we filled the gap. Three bull candles in a row. And then you got a little bit of selling. It will come down to Nvidia. Right. If Nvidia gaps up, the markets will gap up and we'll kind of go higher and then start chopping around and the moving averages will catch up and we'll probably form a mid spring rest and then we probably end up going higher because that's the overall trend. Other than that, thought process could be if Nvidia gaps down, markets will gap down a little bit again. NBA gets bought up, markets get bought up, when we still kind of form a little bit of a consolidation, and we still probably go higher because the trend is bullish. And then the only other thing is we have to start missing earnings across the board. So Nvidia misses earnings, Walmart misses earnings, AI misses earnings. We have a few other bigger names that start to miss Earnings and then we start to kind of crack that little support. We take out the 10, we take out the 20 and we just pull back to here. And if you guys remember, this is the previous all time high. And then I'll just start being a net buyer on, on some of, you know, some other positions. So ultimately I don't, I'm not too scared. Again, I still, I still do, do I still look over at individual stocks. I like playing the overall markets obviously for longer term investments and whatnot. This was a 10ema and you guys remember the 10ema reversal. So there was the 10may, we opened above the 10ma that day. So there was really some good moves in here to be caught on the swing trade or even a quick day trade. There are some good moves to be made there. So again it's gonna be all about Nvidia earnings. In my opinion. If Nvidia earnings gaps up, the markets will just slowly go higher. And that's what again, that's probably why I think it's gonna happen. Yep. Brian says, are you putting, are you putting anything into the rumors that Bill Gates and Warren have Both sold like 65% of their holdings due to fear about markets going to pull back? I'd have to look to verify because again all that's public record. So if you care enough to find out, you can go look through it and see if that's actually accurate.

Well, unusual Wells just put out a thing yesterday on Twitter or on X and according to them they posted all the documents that you got to file or whatever that both of them have sold about 65% of all their stocks. The only ones that they have held are their long term value stocks.

Yeah, exactly. I would probably just go look and see which ones they are. Look at what, what they're selling. Again, I have, I have no problem with a nice 1015 pullback in the markets guys, at all. I hope we get that. I mean that would be so not. I mean from 2023 for the last year and a half we're up 65% on the broader markets. So it would be incredible to get this. Like that would be such a nice little move.

So do you want that because you already have your positions collared or you're going to sell and rebuy or what? What is your strategy if that does start to happen?

Both.

Yeah, I would, I would sell a lot of things and rebuy. I do have a lot of collars right now and I have. Yeah, I'm not worried about that at all. I mean the trend is bullish. We haven't even hit the 50 EMA in quite a long time. But I'm out of an I'm out of Mongo database. I have only call options left on Nvidia that are so deep in the money at this point. I guess whatever is possible. You know, we got our Google's positions, we got our swing trades, we got our day trades, we got a lot of things building. I know everyone else has everything else going on but Carvana, we call her Carvana. So yeah, I love callers and this is the place to be getting into some. I mean, because you're at again, the broader markets are all time highs. So any pullback that we get, it would get pulled back into old resistance, new support. I still think we would ultimately go higher again. I'm not saying that Warren Buffett and Bill Gates are not very good people to follow, but they could sell and Rebuy with an 8%, 9% drop also. And they just get right back in. I am a little bit of a conspiracy theorist. I think if Warren Buffett dies, I know that Munger died and not a lot happened with the markets, but I think if Warren Buffett dies, The market dropped 10% that week. That's just my random conspiracy theory. But again, it'll be a viable event when it happens. It's not an if. Our boys are getting old, right? Our boys getting old. So those are kind of my general thoughts on the overall market. I think it's all gonna be about Nvidia, right? And I think the best thing for the markets would be an Nvidia gap down. I do think the best thing would be an Nvidia gap down. Everyone gets panicked for like a week and then it slowly curates higher and then we kind of go back off to the races. A gap up on Nvidia again I think is probably is relatively probable and a flat open and everyone just kind of takes a breath of fresh air and we just kind of figure out what happens. But again, if we go back and look at Carvana, I know a bunch of people are in this one as well. So I got the, got the collar. And Joe walks us through a really good what she did example on Carvana with her earnings because these, these come out next week. So she had a really cool caller and she posted the, the numbers in the WhatsApp groups. Let's just go read through those numbers really quick. Where's Ultra? Well, there we go. Where is Joe's really nice little write up? I probably can search for it, Jojo. There it is. All right, so if you want to scroll up, this is Friday morning. So she got into a collar, and so she sold the March 1. So March 1, Friday caller, for a $2.35 credit at the end of a big bull day. So that means she brought $2.35 in per contract. So if you have 100 shares, you brought in two and 35 bucks. Sold a $65 call for $4.02. So that's $402 for every 100 shares, and then bought a $45 put for a $67. This, ladies and gentlemen, is literally the perfect collar protection on the downside, and you get paid handsomely. I mean, $2.35 credit is a lot, especially on a $50 stock. I mean, 50 cents is 1%. So she's over there making 4% for free, if you think about it, which is really nifty. So anyway, the price fell on Friday, and so she was able to close for a 65 cent credit. Bought the call back for $2.19. So you can see that the call dropped a decent amount. This would be a debit. It doesn't really ultimately matter, but I know what you mean. So the call costs $4.02. So she bought the callback for 219. So you can see that the call dropped 50% in value. So that's a free $2 of capture. And then her put that cost $1.67. She was able to sell for 284. How nifty. And when. The best part is she got paid to make that money. So cool. I love options. They're the best. You're gonna hear that laugh a lot this week. This week. I just. They're. They're so fun. So now, again, at that point before earnings. Yep, exactly. So now it's like the next, you know, Monday, Tuesday pops up again a little bit. Or you get a bull candle on Tuesday or whatever comes in that you can just do get another one. And then she can start doing the math and just going, okay, well, I've chipped away my cost basis, this amount or this amount or this amount. And then you can kind of rinse and repeat or, you know, you do a trade. And our girl Nancy's going to go on a cruise for all of March. So any calls that any callers that she gets on, she's just going to leave them alone, go on a nice little cruise, and she knows her worst case scenario. A few of you are in Coinbase and Coinbase was a really, really cool gap. Very, very beautiful bounce off the hundred. So this one, you're also. You're still in your March 1st, caller, Joe. Okay, so she's going to sit back until March 1st and see what happens on Coinbase. This one did have a really, really beautiful run up into earnings and then it did have a great gap up on earnings. But look where we gapped up. We gapped up to the resistance. And my analysis on Coinbase after earnings really was, I don't know what I will do because you had. You went from 120 to 190. That's a lot. So earnings is opening at 190. We, we are 120 a week ago. So I don't know what the heck's going on. You had a gap and go. So bear candle gapping up. So you got some bears that are trapped, but you got a lot of profitable bulls, so you got people selling for a profit. The same people who sold here are going to start selling again because they made money once, so they're going to do it twice. So I didn't know what to do on Coinbase, so I didn't trade Coinbase on Friday. I didn't day trade it. I'd stayed away because I had no. I just couldn't feel the sentiment. We're at a resistance, so some people are going to sell. We're really high, so some people are going to sell. We also have trapped bears, so some people are going to buy. I don't know. Didn't do anything but a really nice trade to buy some shares off that 100, that previous support, right? And down here, this is just. You just gotta buy it. I mean, this is like you're doing a limit buy. And you might remember when we were practicing our reversals, right? We, Coinbase was a big one that we practiced and that sell off right there and then the consolidation and then all the bear engulfing and then this is the accumulation, accumulation pattern. And then you got the double bottom, you got the close with the neckline. So I do think ultimately that Coinbase can come back down to 130. I think that's very possible, but I'm not going to bet on it too hard. So if it happens, I'll start picking some up again. Any other positions that you guys want me to look at? I know Eric said he's an Apple, so Apple's just kind of hanging out the 200. We're just kind of. We're really just chilling at a really interesting little spot. Here. Ultimately, we all know Apple will eventually go higher, but I think that Apple's losing a little bit of steam with Nvidia. And the vision pros came out and there's a lot of. It's a very buy the rumor, sell the news type of thing that's happening right now on Apple. With Nvidia becoming like the second or third largest company in the world. Apple's like looking over its shoulder every day now as the goat, right? As the biggest, the best. My, my best opinion is that Apple trades up back into 185, which is the low of this candle. And I actually think that Apple's gonna slowly trade back down to 165. I don't know when that's gonna happen, but probably June, July. And obviously you would wanna buy it there. But Apple's losing a little bit of steam right now, I think. Just, just a little bit. And this candle here and this candle here and this candle here look pretty similar on a weekly chart to me. So we're, we're high on Apple. There's other. There's another tech company that's now cooler than Apple for right now, which would be Meta and Nvidia. Obviously they're extremely profitable. They're going to do just fine. But this is the one that I would just protect and make sure I have some protection on if it takes out the low of this candle. I mean, really. Tuesday, Wednesday, because we're right at the 200. We got the hammer, we got some consolidation. A bounce here would be great. We bounce here once, twice, three times, and now we're working on a fourth. So if we don't bounce on Apple, it's going to 175 and then it'll bounce and go back up to 180. Fail here, go back down 174 and then I don't know what's going to happen. Either bounce or it'll break. I'm not sure. Shopify, we can definitely look at shop. I still love me some shop, man. And we'll look at Celsius. Hey, buddy. Thank you. Thanks, Jason. I love these kind bars. So I do like the fact that we close above this bear candle. I think Shopify with the inside count that we got on Friday is just a really, really good consolidation effect. So I'm still looking for. We gotta fill this gap for Shopify to be super, super, super bullish. And again, I think it's just gonna kind of come down to what we get on earnings on Nvidia. I think Nvidia is gonna help all tech stocks a little bit. Ultimately, we all know that looking at this chart, Shopify, it looks really, really clean. Looks very, very nice. I can see if a good market pullback comes. I would love to get some Shopify into the high 60s, something like this, because there's just, there's just a lot here that's just gonna be all market dependent. I mean, the markets is extremely high. So it's gonna keep going even higher for all stocks to go up. Good, good bear volume here on the weekly chart. This is a bearish engulfing candle pattern. So for me and my shares of Shopify watching this candle on Tuesday, we have an inside candle. Down we go lower, up we go higher. Make sure you protect yourself on the downside again, you can still get into a good caller. You're probably so profitable. So that's very, very likely on Shopify. And then Celsius. Yeah, Celsius looks really pretty. So I did get into some small shares of Celsius. I had a put sale that expired worthless on Friday. I'm gonna leave that for the trading room. There's a few people in Celsius, but check out this volume trap family. You guys will really like this a lot. Don't pee yet, buddy. He's about to pee on the carpet. All right, so check out this good, really good volume spike here. Really, really good volume spike. This candle closed above it. And again, this was not on earnings, which is always good. That just means that more people are kind of trapped and confused and like, interested and concerned and all the fun stuff. And then look at all these bull candles in a row. So that many bull candles in a row, perfect. Hammer off the 200. Close about that type of volume. What should you expect to happen at that stage? So at that price, you're just, you're just expecting the retest, right? You're expecting a pullback. So if you're, if you're not in and you want to get in, you're doing a limit order, right? If you're not in yet, that would kind of be how you would set that trade up, Tom. So you're getting filled on either that day or the open of that candle just off the high of that volume. And then look at this just cooking. So now we're back to probably the same approach again. Earnings are on the 28th of February. Let's go to earnings. That sounds right. Earningswhisper.com. Okay, we got some big ones this week. Got distracted. We got Rivians coming up. Walmart Palo Alto, Nvidia. Yeah. These gonna be. It'd be pretty big. This is gonna be a good one. All right, so let's go look at Celsius, clh. What we got? What do we got? Dates. Wow, this thing's been really crushing. Yeah, this is gonna be a fun one, Joe. Yeah, this could be really, really interesting one. So really my expectation on this one, again, same kind of thing as before, right? We just go do all the analysis. But they've crushed earnings. They've just continued to incline, put in a bunch of bulls. So it's likely going to run up into earnings continually. And then if it hits a new high, you're gonna have so many people who are already profitable, who already bought that if we gap up on earnings, then we're going to pull back a little bit. So I do think we're going to continue to run up into earnings a little bit, and if it gaps up on earnings, we're gonna get a little bit of a fade. So I would say either a small gap up or no gap down. You know, no. No gap or the most likely. And if it gaps down, depending on the open, it probably gets bought up again ultimately. Yeah. So, team, we're still here all week. This is going to be a lot of fun. Appreciate all of your energy and excitement for this amazing class and information. Next class on Thursday, we're going to talk about short squeezes and kind of talk a little bit about what that is, specifically how I scan for. And then you guys are loosely, forever. So love you all so much. Thanks for being here. I'll see you on Thursday. If you have any questions between now and then, again, on any trade setup, anything that you're in, anything that you want to be in, message me. I'm always here to help. Okay? See you, fam. You're the best. See you tomorrow, buddy. Bye, team. See you tomorrow, Brian.