Joe DownsCEO & Co-Founder, Belrose Storage Group. Founder, Storage Moguls.

Make Your Model Bulletproof NOI Layers and Sensitivity Tables

16 Apr 2026 · 1 min

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Joe Downs walks through building bulletproof commercial real estate models using four NOI layers: in-place, stabilized, enhanced, and downside. He shows how to verify DSCR at each layer and create a sensitivity table that maps occupancy against average rent so lenders can see exactly where the deal breaks.

Chapters

4 NOI layers with the DSCR at each. You got your in-place NOI and whether it services the debt, the stabilized NOI and DSCR, enhanced NOI at full value at execution. Also your downside NOI and whether you still service the debt. The lender needs to see that the loan works even when things don't go exactly as planned. You got a sensitivity table, fall occupancy on one axis, average rent per space on the other. 3 scenarios. The downside DSCR check should be visible without digging. Put it in the table, not in a separate section.