Why BJP lost so miserably in UP? A detailed analysis of election verdict, 2024 with @DigantaGuha

Okay, so shall we talk in English or Bengali?

Bengali.

Okay, so yeah, I have not been able to sleep tonight, as you can see from my face, and there's no time to change for the video or for the podcast. So I'm right here with Digonto, and Digonto, it is 11 o'clock at night in India, and India is Brimming. It's like, it's like simmering with news, and I just cannot keep calm. So, Diwanto, what do we think? What do you think? Who's going to be our next prime minister? Let's get down to the point right away.

As of now, if there is no defection, if there is no horse trading, then obviously Narendra Modi has the numbers and he will be sworn in as the next prime minister. But there are news coming in that the India Alliance has already started, has initiated talks with Nitish Kumar. And it has also— it is also trying to woo, you know, Chandrababu Naidu of the Telugu Desam Party. But it remains to be seen whether, you know, their efforts fructify or not. It's too early to say. But as of now, you know, So far as the figures are concerned, I mean it's Narendra Modi all the way. But it's a shocker for Narendra Modi mainly because of the fact that he was you know yelling over the fact that he would be getting that up keepa chasupar. But the figures are very disappointing and he should actually you know I was just discussing this with a friend of mine. I was just telling him that if you become overcomplicit, then you know after a certain point of time. Were taught a lesson. Even Mamata Banerjee was, you know, super arrogant today while she was addressing the media. So she also needs to take a leaf out of his chapter.

So, um, we will now have a coalition government along— so can you break it down for the viewers? Like, do you think we should have a— we would be having a coalition government with India, or how does it work? Or NDA?

No, as of now, going by the figures, there will be a coalition government with Narendra Modi at the helm. Going by the figures, but there are conjectures, there are rumors floating around that there could be some defections. It remains to be seen what exactly happens because politics, as I said, you know, politics throws strange bedfellows and there is no permanent friendship or enmity in politics. Anything can happen. And going by Nitish Kumar's track record, he was the one who actually initiated the process of the India Alliance. Then he defected to, you know, BJP for, for various reasons. You know, the very fact that Narendra Modi's figures have come down drastically It is a huge wake-up call for him, and he needs to really sort of pull up his socks and ensure that if he if he is if he is if he is if he's sworn in as the prime minister, obviously he will be sworn in as the prime minister. You know, he needs to I mean just be a bit modest and not get overconfident or overoptimistic.

Yeah, there was there was a thing going on on you on the TV that said sometime at one point they were contemplating that Mamata Banerjee might be the prime minister. Or Rahul Gandhi might be the prime minister. What are the chances that they cannot?

It's too early to say. It's too early to say. It all depends on you see, as I said, you know, and I would reiterate that so far as the current figures go, it's Narendra Modi all the way. But if there are changes, if there are surprises, then you know if the India Alliance has the numbers, if it can you know get all the numbers, accumulate all the numbers, the sufficient numbers. But whatever it is, it's going to be a coalition government either way. So how much stability you know? going to give to the country, that remains to be seen. But India is at a crossroads, I must say.

Yeah, India is at a crossroad. That's a very important thing. And we have kind of— there's been this huge run of BJP over the past 10 years, which has kind of stopped. I think the wheel has stopped. But at the same time, we are seeing the Congress and India alliance Is jubilant. So what are they jubilant about?

They are jubilant about the fact that Modi was targeting for आपकी बार 400 पर and going by that, you know, I mean, the numbers have really come down, really come drastically come down. And the very fact that the Congress has Congress had around I think 50 or 51 seats in the last Lok Sabha. Now it's touching 100, and it will actually, you know, deducted by one because Rahul Gandhi has to. I mean, I mean, let go of one seat either Iberidi or you know, I mean, Venat. But they are are chances that he would actually let go of rivalry. And, you know, that will give a— that will make way for Priyanka Gandhi Vardhara to make a debut in electoral politics.

Yeah. So that's the thing. So we are now looking at a coalition government, that kind of a thing that used to happen earlier before I left India. So do you think that kind of a coalition government is going to be stable? For India, the only thing that I am concerned is whether it will stabilize the country.

Well, if you if you can do an halal manmohan Singh, then it will be stable. And if you cannot, then obviously you can have elections maybe in a year's time from now.

My dad also says he's eighty nine years old. He's he just now told me that BJP ashtri, which means he is so um and in West Bengal, so West Bengal we it is. 29, Trinamool and 12 BJP, I think. So West Bengal, Mamata is still still on the track and she's saying that जेकाने सौंदर्य खरीद जो ना आमा क्या तो क्वाता बोला हो चुला तो कांडो हो चुली सौंदर्य खरीदे हमारा जीते। It's it's it's incredible that you know like how people it's it's really remarkable how people.

Like me, Bhandar has worked. Like me, Bhandar has worked that this election was fought on local issues. So far as local issues is concerned, if I bifurcate, there are some issues over which, you know, the Trinamool has been pardoned by the voters. There are some issues over which Trinamool has been appreciated. And the very fact that the amount of Lakshmi Bandar was increased at, you know, at the 11th hour, that also worked big time. And honestly speaking, you know, when I had been sort of maintaining this fact that letting BJP win in West Bengal might be a bit tough For Bengalis, for Bengalis and also for non-Bengalis to a certain extent. Because I mean they they have they still have this you know obsession with the so-called secularism factor. And in that case BJP is still known as a party which fans communism. So that way I think it's been a tremendous performance. It's been an upheaval for Bengal electoral for Bengal electoral politics and. And it remains to be seen how Mamata latches onto it, you know, because again, you know, certain cases will crop up. And it also remains to be seen how the new Modi government behaves so far as the agencies, you know, the probe agencies are concerned.

Yeah, that, that kind of an autocratic situation should be— is, is definitely going to be overhauled because, uh, India was becoming more of a dictatorship than a democracy. And, um, I would just, you know, want to say at this point that no kind of— no party or nobody, no charismatic leader should turn into it. It was like on the teetering on the edge of becoming a dictatorship.

So yeah, I mean, actually, you know, if you look back in time, BJP is, you know, I mean, meeting with the same fate as Congress, you know, way back in the '70s, you know, Congress was on a roll, and it was like in power for years. And then the emergency happened. And India, we thought that She can actually, you know, toy with the people of the country. But you will be making a cardinal sin, you know, you'll be committing a cardinal sin if you take the voters for granted.

Yeah, that's the power of democracy. And today we're going to just celebrate the power of democracy, the true democracy in the biggest democracy in the world. I mean, this is the thing that we can celebrate today, that it's true democracy that actually—

it's actually a victory for democracy because people thought that— in fact, I had interviewed one सीनियर बीजेपी लीडर, आई मीन बिफोर द इलेक्शंस, आई मीन ही वाज़ आल्सो लूइंग द फैक्ट दैट यू नो इट्स बिकमिंग अ वेस्टमिनिस्टर मॉडल, सो आई मीन डेमोक्रेसी विदाउट एनी ओपोजिशन वुड बी लीथल. इफ दे शो दिस सेम आरोग्य, देन दे माइट इनफैक्ट लूज आउट ऑन पावर एंड न्यू गवर्नमें NRI's, it was, oh, you're from Modi, you're from Modi's country.

So it was like we were identified as being from Modi's country, from in, not from India, not from, but yes, definitely that created a positive vibe, like at the border, at the Canadian border, US border, when we are crossing over, whenever they saw our, like, you're from India. Okay, Modi's, Modi's India. So everybody knew Modi, like Shah Rukh Khan, मोदी वो स्लाइक शाहरुख़ खान ही वाज़ द शाहरुख़ खान ऑफ़ पॉलिटिक्स सो दैट वे वी गोट अ लॉट ऑफ़ लुक्ड एट द वे अदर ब्राउन पीपल आर लुक्ड एट इन दिस पार्ट ऑफ़ द वर्ल्ड सो वी विल लुक डिफरेंटली यू नो दैट इज़ दैट इज़ द वन समथिंग आई वुड लाइक टू पॉइंट आउट ओवर हियर इंड Modi campaigns, and that's unbelievable, that opulence of Modi culture among the NRI.

It's all about Modi, Modi, Modi. It seems BJP is Modi. It is like India is Indira, Indira is India, you know. We are actually back to square one.

Yeah, I think so.

It's something like that.

I think people like that kind of charismatic leadership, and heart of heart, they want to be ruled by a politician, a very charismatic leader. So every charismatic leader has their followers, and Modi had a huge NRI follower base. So the thing is that now we know democracy is everything. It is what lies in people's mind is everything. And most importantly, in UP, the cow bastion of Modi, Where he made such a such a ceremonious launch of Ram Mandir, okay, to please the Hindus basically. But the Hindus were not pleased. No, it was not wrong, right? No, no prime minister of a secular country should go out all the way to visit a mandir, a temple.

Sorry to sorry to just chip in. It was also not about Ram Mandir. It was also about Modi. And even even if you look at his meditation, you know, he was meditating for forty-five hours, and I was really you know. Amazed by the fact that he was tweeting while he was meditating. So people have also kind of understood, uh, you know, that he doesn't do it on his own. So that was hilarious on my part. In fact, I tweeted about it.

The camera is all over for me.

Yeah, so this megalomania, you know, has been definitely beaten in the dust, and he has to learn lessons. And I think it's a huge, huge— again, I would reiterate, and I would say it again and again, that this is a huge victory for democracy. In democracy, you can never take The voters for granted. You know, I'd leave aside the you know I mean what should I say the glitches and all that the EVM become politics.

But overall, you can never small percentage.

Yeah, yeah. You can never ever you know take the voters for granted. Take them for a ride. I mean they were they are watching.

You know, as I said, you know, as we discussed public सब जानते हैं public सब जानते हैं that's we we so so good to know that and let's just you know wait for What kind of coalition that India forms? We have to wait for that. And yeah, Modi will still be back as prime minister, like you said. And so, but his powers will be, you know, cut, which is a good sign, which is a good sign for the alliance partners.

Alliance partners, there are lots of alliance partners. You have JDU, you have, you know, I mean, Telugu Desam, you have other parties as well. TDP has the numbers, and in Bihar, if you see, even JDU has the numbers. So they can actually play around that. There can be some emotional blackmailing and all that. And somebody was telling me that even, you know, if Nitish is, uh, successfully, you know, I mean, wooed by, uh, the India Alliance, he might be made the Deputy Prime Minister. You never know. So anything can happen. So it's good, it's good, it's good, it's good. I mean, like, there's a obviously lack of stability, but at least there is some competition and there, there will be a significant opposition presence, you know, in the lower house, which is a very good trend, which is a very good sign.

I hope so. And, uh, I— we also hope that this kind of a thing also happens in West Bengal, though I really personally, personally, if you ask me, I really do not want BJP to enter West Bengal because, as you said, BJP has been, you know, so vocal about being so communal and creating such communal tensions all over India. West Bengal is basically very, very secular by nature, and Indian and Bengalis are extremely secular, extremely open-minded as far as religion is concerned. So I don't think BJP should make an inroad into West Bengal. But at the same time, this Mamata magic, What do we say? The Mamata magic or the Mamata megalomaniac, this thing should be also curtailed some way sometimes.

Yeah, unfortunately, Kabiri, the thing is I'm really, you know, uh, startled by the fact that, uh, voters have also, you know, a significant section of voters, especially in West Bengal, has also lost its, uh, you know, I mean, objectivity. People like Yusuf Pathan beating Aditya Chaudhary. Can you imagine? Then Jun Mania, then Keerti Azad. These people are winning, you know, on the trot. Rachana Banerjee. Well, they are all rookies, but they are actually, you know, I mean, scoring over veterans. So it's all about Mamata Banerjee. It's not a TMC victory per se. It's a Mamata Banerjee victory. Personality-driven politics is still rampant in India.

Yeah. Issues have always taken the backseat in Indian politics, whichever politics, whichever country you can say. And It's always, ever since Hitler's time, it was always personality-driven and people forgot the issues and they went for the personality. So it has always been a charismatic leader who ruled the thing until people actually realized, oh my God, what am I doing? What is happening? Like it happened in India. People have finally realized, oh my God, no, this is not right. This is wrong. So that kind of makeover, I don't know whether in West Bengal how much is going to happen. Because we are in, we are tied in the loop of, uh, it's kind of, we are in the Shakir Kaurat, we, we say. So we are in the loop. We do not know whether, uh, BJP comes in, who's going to replace Mamata. If, if TMC is gone, then we'll, we will lose our all our—

there is no alternative at that. There is no alternative. Left has been wiped out, and still people in the left are delighted by the fact that their vote share has increased. Not even a single seat in West Bengal. Left is not silly, which is also, which is also dangerous, which is also ominous. These are also ominous signs, you know. There has to be a left, there has to be a right, there has to be a centrist party, you know.

I don't think it's about policies because, uh, the left, uh, you know, being not being—

they don't have a face.

It's, it's—

they don't have a face. They don't have a face.

There is no Charismatic leader in left who can portray the fact that they're going to do something good for the country. Government for twenty seven years.

They need a credible face, and they have to you know do a very good recce, a very you know meticulous recce of exactly what they want to do.

At least they should come. They should come up as the next opposition party, a good opposition party, and. Definitely.

That will take engine. That will take engine.

Yeah, if BJP changes their stance of being so communal in their nature, if they can change their policies of not being not so communal in their nature and being Hindutva, so if that can be changed, then BJP can be a good opposition party.

I mean, I for sitting from so far, and these people had need to come to Bengal and understand the pulse of the people. Otherwise, just coming over here and you know addressing 28-29 rallies. I mean, they don't work.

We need to have a better opposition in Bengal, like they said. Now that there is a good opposition in India, in central India, at least the opposition has emerged to be good after all this work, hard work they put in. So we should also have a good opposition. The secular, secular nature of the Constitution, if they can protect that nature of the Constitution, Then definitely they can, you know, emerge at least as a good opposition. So on that note, thanks, Zigonto. We have run out of time and it was great talking to you. And generally, I am like so excited. I just woke up from sleep and I'm here and I'm truly excited.

I'm sure you had your breakfast or you skipped your breakfast for this.

I'm having my tea. So yesterday night Yeah, I was awake till three o'clock alone, just you know simmering in the change.

As these supporters are enjoying their share of green sweets, you enjoy. You are entitled to share enjoying your share of you know green tea or whichever whichever tea you prefer.

Having full tea like normal tea chai like from.

Oh chai that's good.

So this is. This is with milk and sugar. Not I don't take sugar, but with normal chai, you know, the not a green tea. Absolutely not. With milk and sweetener, whatever. So that I am enjoying right now.

And thank you, Kabirji, for having me. It's always been a pleasure to talk to you.

Yeah, it's on the channel.

Thank you so much. Thank you so much.

And yeah, okay, take care and. And we'll see you, we'll have a podcast soon again.

Yeah, sure. Thank you.

Bye-bye.