A conversational excerpt about the 2025 U.S. real estate market arguing that while consumer debt is high, the housing market is not necessarily headed for a crash. The speaker contrasts current conditions with the 2008–2013 period when many homeowners were underwater, and notes that present home price appreciation and constrained supply have generated substantial homeowner equity.
If you're still in the business, you are winning the game. It has been a game of survival for the most part, not a game of necessarily having your best year ever. Although a lot of folks in our community are having their best year ever. Is the market going to crash, Lars? You're telling us that there's going to be this major recession and major collapse. I don't know that I see that. So I tend to agree with the approach here is that yes, it's not good from a debt perspective. So consumer debt is way higher than it's ever been. Whether you look at auto loans or helocs or mortgage or credit cards, they're all going up, which is not a good thing generally. But here is the story. When it comes to real estate during the gfc, it was a different scenario. Right in the middle of 2008, all the way to 2013, homeowners equity was less than the mortgage. So homeowners were underwater for middle of 2008 to middle of 2013. So roughly five years now you could see because homes have been appreciating, supply is not satisfying demand. There's just a diverse emergence of equity versus what is owned. So real estate values are through the roof.
