In this solo YouTube episode, Christian Osgood explains that $162 billion of multifamily debt, up 52 % from the previous year, is coming due in 2026, creating a wave of distressed assets. He argues the situation is not a 2008‑style crash but rather a market with abundant seller pressure and modest buyer demand, leading to significant price discounts (10‑30 % below what owners owe). Osgood shares his own recent activity—closing $12.5 million of deals across Texas and offering to buy properties at deep discounts—while noting an ethical dilemma of over‑committing capital. He describes the broader market as “boring”: flat rents, moderate interest rates (high‑5s to low‑7s), average cap rates, and high inventory of sellers. Osgood then outlines a four‑step process for investors to acquire more real estate—Analyze the deal, engage Brokers, secure Debt, raise Equity—and provides resources (free calculator, his book on creative real estate, the SKOL community). Throughout, he emphasizes that the current environment offers the best buying conditions of his career, despite hype about an imminent crash.
Chapters
There were a lot of deals in 2020 and 2021, and here in 2026, that debt is due. The extensions are being called due. The 5-year debt is now due. In fact, there is $162 billion of multifamily debt, up about 52% from last year that is coming due, which reflects on these strategies that I'm using this year that are different than last year. So dive on in if you want to know what this means for real estate, what this means for pricing, and more importantly, what this means to you. We share it all in this episode. So first, let's open this up. I've seen this all over online, the bubble, the, all the YouTubers are out here, oh, the crash is coming, everything's going to end. No, it's not. This is not 2008. This is not even close. There are, however, more deals that you're seeing crashing. We saw Brandon Turner's Houston deal crash. He probably has some more in the hopper there for losing investor capital, unfortunately. But there's a lot of these syndicated deals in the prime marketing of, hey, buy things $0 down with no experience. A lot of people did that. And so we're going to see that a lot of that coming due right now. The opportunity that I am seeing, I have offered this week alone on 3 deals for less than they owe on the property. Debt is coming due for these deals in 2, 3, 5 months, and people are a little bit panicked. What I'm seeing from the bigger shops, so bigger investors, is they're trimming the portfolio and they're cutting their losses in favor of their bigger deals. So they're making shifts. So is everything going to implode? No, but oh my Gosh, the opportunities are awesome this year. I've offered in Austin, in Houston, in Dallas, in Abilene, in Waco, in, in Stephenville. In fact, I'm, should be going under contract for 2 more deals. So stay tuned. We're doing a lot of buying and I have already closed on $12.5 million of multifamily real estate from people who are adjusting their portfolios with the changing market. So we're at the fun part right now where when the debt's coming due, the operators that have strung along their deals as long as they can, they're finally out of options. So they're trading a lot of the deals that I'm buying. I am buying today for 10% off what they owe, not what they bought it for, for what they owe, up to 30% of what they owe. Now, there are still some good deals and normal deals on the market. The normal operations are still in play, buying plenty of those as well. But I'm seeing more opportunity this year than I have my entire investing career. I started in 2016 with a live-in flip condo and rent-in. In 2020, I did a lot of my buying, getting into the duplexes and then graduating to where I'm at now, which is the, you know, about a 38-unit and then scale up to 600 units in the last 5 years. I have never seen as much opportunity As I've seen right now, I'm writing offers. Some of these offers are offensively low and many of them are getting accepted. I'm going to run into a new problem of we're going to have too many deals and I'm going to have to start saying no to truly good deals because of an ethical issue I'm running into. I cannot in good faith raise money for a fantastic deal when I'm already under contract for an even better deal. Because how do you explain to an investor, hey, I have an amazing return for you. However, I'm giving an even better return to other people and I'm actively raising for that deal too. I can't do it. So we're actually having to say no to deals that I would've bought in any other year because of the amount of opportunity that we are seeing right now in the market. There's one other thing that I think people are missing right now, especially Texas, but there's been a good deal of building and oversupply. If you've noticed nationwide, rents aren't up by very much. They're fairly flat. Also, you may have noticed interest rates haven't changed notably in a long time. Like, sure, they've inched down. From their big spike several years ago. But if you're looking at the market right now, it's the most boring market we've seen in a long time. Yes, there are more deals available right now, so you definitely have an advantage if you are buying in this market. But if you look at the variables, we have very moderate interest rates. You know, we're sitting in the high 5s to low 7s depending on what debt product you're looking at and what market you're looking at. Real estate values are fairly average. If you're looking over time at cap rates, you have this boring market where we're kind of in the middle of everything. It's a fairly stagnant market.. There's not a whole lot of change. There are a lot of sellers, not as many buyers. If there was ever a time in history to get into a deal, I would say it is right now, especially if you know how to use a little bit of creativity. But this has been my favorite year operating in my entire existence. I have not had to say no to so many good deals. And I'm watching, you know, I run Multifamily Strategy, as you guys know, we have a mentorship program. I'm seeing more offers get accepted from mentees and more aggressive Negotiations. It's almost a default now. Negotiate a great deal and then take 10% off it and offer that, and it gets accepted more than I've ever seen it get accepted. So I'm seeing not lowball offers, but I'm seeing offers that are notably lower than we would've attempted in past years getting accepted, which means higher margin, better investor returns, easier capital raises. But right now, real estate is not considered sexy in the news, and I am here for it. I think this is the best time to start playing because by the time real estate gets sexy, it's because everyone already made a lot of the money. You want to be on the front end of that wave. I'm looking at what this means right now with all this debt coming due. It just means that there's better pricing available. There's more pain in the market, but we're not seeing these major market shifts or big groups get completely wiped out. We're seeing a few failed deals and we're seeing more pricing pressure for you as the buyer. So if you're buying, I think this is probably the best time we're going to see in the next quite a bit. Maybe we pull back a little bit more throughout this year, but if you're looking for like, hey, I'm trying to time the market and buy at the bottom, we're Probably hovering right around there from all the fundamentals I could see. And I know there's the crash bros out there who every single year launch their series of videos on why everything's going to fail. I've seen Grant Cardone do this multiple times every single year. Even Ken McElroy, who I really, really like and respect, he calls more crashes than actually happen. If I'm looking at the market right now, real estate is really boring. And if you're watching this episode being like, why am I watching an episode on how boring real estate is? You want your money to be boring, people. I promise you, if you're listening to this, you You want the most predictable return, you want the safest underwriting, a mostly flat market right now. This is the least buyers and the most sellers you're probably going to see in every given, any given year. So I'm going to leave you with 4 steps that you can personally take to buy a ton of real estate this year, regardless of how much money you have. Do these things in order, you will end up with more real estate. I absolutely promise you. Number 1, you need to know how to analyze a deal. Brandon Turner's investors or any of these failed syndications, if they knew how to analyze a deal, they wouldn't have invested in his deal because it was like less than a 4 cap in Houston. Assuming that that was going to do better was insane. It wasn't a good deal when he negotiated it, so the deal failed. That's how it works. So you need to know how to underwrite whether you are an active investor or a passive investor. That is the most important thing. You can download a free calculator below. You can also get a link to my book here, which shows you all sorts of plays you can do to buy real estate with or without any of your own money. In fact, actual plays that I've used, you can check that out on Amazon, the book on creative real estate. And then you go to our school community, SKOL, for the calculator. You guys can check that out there too. But you need to know how to analyze the deal first, because if you know the math and you're confident in your numbers, you're going to start writing offers. And if you're going to raise capital, you can start presenting on why it's a good deal to other people. It's very important to get. Number 2, you need to actually talk to brokers about the deals that are on market right now. The deals on market are actually starting to look pretty darn good. There's a lot of opportunity out there, which means you be having conversations around them and actually submitting those offers. If you want a cheat code, have enough conversations in the week. So we're talking like a call or two a day with listed deals until you get some traction with a broker or an owner. You should be writing one offer a week where you've actually had an honest conversation and a reasonable chance of getting accepted. You do this, you should be under contract within the next few months. Next, you're going to actually line up the debt product, which is easy to do. You're going to either do conventional, so you're going to reach out to local banks and credit unions, or you're going to get creative, in which case you probably want to snag this book or watch some more videos on this channel. So we talk a lot about the creative. And then lastly, once all of those are in place, if you need more money, now you have a deal, you have a package, you have the debt product set up, you have a deal and math that says how it's going to make money. It's very easy to find other people in your market who also want to make money. So that should be the easiest part, but only if you keep those 4 steps in the correct order. So analysis, deal, debt, equity. Do those 4 steps in order. You'll buy more real estate this year than you have in any other year. See y'all in the next episode.
