
A golfer bets 10 cents on the first hole, then doubles the stake after each hole. By hole 18, he owes $13,107. The bet shows how exponential growth sneaks up on you when each step seems small.
Chapters
If I said to you, let's go play golf, and as we get up to the first hole I say, you know, just to make it a little more interesting, why don't we bet a dime a hole just so there's something on the line? Now most people are going to go, no problem, 10 cents a hole. How many holes are there? 18 holes. How much I got at risk? A buck 80, right? Okay, not a big deal. And then I'm just about to get up there and hit the first ball and I say, you know, just make it a little more interesting, why don't we just double it each hole? So what would that be? First hole is 10 cents, so the second hole is 20 cents, third hole would be 40 cents, fourth hole is going to be 80 $0.80. Fifth hole is going to be $1.60. Sixth hole is going to be $3.20. Now stop. How many holes are there? 18. So we're 1/3 the way through and it's $3.20. So in your head you say, wow, what the fuck, you know, so what am I costing me, $10, $12, $15 if I lose? No big deal. You get up to 9 holes and you go, wow, I wasn't expecting $25, but we're only halfway there. 11th, 12th. Now look what happens here. We get to the 13th hole, $4 to $9. We went from down here at $25, 4 holes later, you're worth $409. How do we go from $25 to $400 in 4 fucking holes? Power of compounding. Watch what happens these last holes. 14th hole, 15th hole, 16th, 17th, 18th hole, $13,107.
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