Samuel AndersonManaging Partner, BevAssets, LLC · Just Pick Up The Phone 📞 | Joy 🦋 | Empowering individuals through meaningful connections, one person at a time.

DrinkUp Podcast Daily Industry Brief.

2 Mar 2026 · 5 min

Watch on YouTube

4:38

In this episode of the DrinkUp Podcast Daily Industry Brief, host Samuel Anderson delivers a data‑driven overview of the U.S. beverage market and translates the numbers into actionable guidance for brands, distributors, and suppliers in 2026. He notes that the NBWA February Beer Purchasers Index shows a modest year‑over‑year improvement (now 39) but remains in a cautionary zone, with at‑risk inventory at 47. Premium and premium‑light beers are stabilizing, while imports, flavored malt beverages (FMB), seltzers, and craft beers continue to contract. National Institute of Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (NIQ) 4‑week scans reveal that prepared cocktails (RTDs) are the primary growth engine, with spirits‑based and wine‑based RTDs posting strong dollar gains, while FMBs, hard seltzers, core spirits, beer, and wine are flat. Consumer behavior is shifting: alcohol’s share of household spend is near a 40‑year low, liquor‑store spend fell, bar spend rose, and binge drinking among 21‑34‑year‑olds dropped by nearly 10 points over a decade. On the spirits side, MGP’s latest data shows a 25% sales decline, a sharp drop in contract distilling, and a halving of “brown goods” inventory, signaling that whiskey and contract distilling have not yet found a floor. Branded spirits are expected to modestly decline, with premium‑plus growth offset by mid‑value shrinkage. The Uncle Nearest brand is in receivership, highlighting balance‑sheet risk despite a strong narrative. Hemp and THC beverages have moved from niche to mainstream, with hundreds of SKUs and meaningful sales, but pending federal policy could push most intoxicating hemp drinks out of the market by late 2026 unless Congress creates an alcohol‑style regulatory framework. Anderson concludes with three sets of recommendations: operators should tighten beer assortments, double‑down on prepared cocktails, cider, and non‑alcoholic options, and create experiences that compete with fitness/social activities; distributors should keep mainstream beer and brown‑spirit inventories tight while pushing growth categories; suppliers should protect premium‑plus brands, be realistic about mid/value brands, and not rely on whiskey or legacy beer to rescue performance. The overarching message is that 2026 is a “mix game” – success will come to those who prune capital‑heavy, low‑growth lines and reallocate resources to RTDs, cider, non‑alcoholic, premium tiers, and legal hemp offerings.

Chapters

Welcome to the DrinkUp Podcast Daily Industry Brief, where we break down what's happening in the beverage business and what it actually means for brands, distributors, and operators. NBWA's February Beer Purchasers Index finally showed a year-over-year improvement for the first time since January 2025, but it's still sitting at 39, firmly below the growth line. The at-risk inventory reading at 47 keeps the industry in what NBWA calls cautionary territory, So beer is less bad, but it's not good. Below premium and premium lights are showing better readings, while imports, FMB, seltzer, and craft are still in contraction. On the total bev-alc side, NIQ's latest 4-week scans through mid-February make it clear that prepared cocktails are doing the work. Spirits-based RTDs and wine-based RTDs are putting up strong growth in dollars, While FMBs and hard seltzers are down and core spirits, beer, and wine are basically flat. Within beer/cider, domestic super-premium and imports are still in the black, while domestic premium, below-premium, and craft are negative but improving. Non-alc beer continues to post solid double-digit growth off a small base. Consumer behavior is helping explain the shape of that curve. Bank of America data shows alcohol as a share of household spend near a 40-year low, Liquor store spend in January was down, bar spend was up. Younger drinkers are pushing more money toward gyms and active social activities. Nearly 3.9 million 21- to 34-year-olds have stopped binge drinking. Over the last decade, binge rates in that group dropped by almost 10 points. People are still drinking, but they're choosing different occasions and formats. On the spirit side, MGP's year underlines that whiskey and contract distilling haven't found the floor yet. Sales were down about a quarter. Their distilling solutions business dropped sharply, and brown goods were cut in half as major customers paused whiskey purchases to work through inventory. Guidance for 2026 points to another down year for that segment, while branded spirits are expected to decline modestly, with Premium Plus growing and mid-value shrinking. That supports the view that the Easy Spirits growth story is over, at least for now. Uncle Nearest shows the balance sheet risk in that environment. The brand is in receivership, the court-appointed receiver is selling non-income-producing assets to satisfy liens, and lenders are prepared to foreclose. Potential buyers are trying to slow the process down to finish due diligence. It's a clear reminder that a great story does not insulate you from leverage and lawsuits. Meanwhile, hemp and THC beverages have become a real adult beverage category, moving from a fringe experiment to full sets in some retailers. With dozens or even hundreds of SKUs and meaningful share of sales and profit, the consumer already treats these as another way to relax. The issue is policy, not demand. Current federal language would effectively push most intoxicating hemp beverages out of the legal market in late 2026. Unless Congress pivots to a proper regulatory framework modeled on alcohol, with clear testing, labeling, dose limits, and age gating, here's what it means. For operators, less bad beer doesn't mean load up; it means keep lists tight and feature the parts of beer that are actually growing. Lean into prepared cocktails, cider, and non-alc, and build experiences that compete with fitness and other social outlets, not just other bars. For distributors, it's about discipline and mix. Keep inventory tight in mainstream beer and brown spirits, and push where the data says the growth is. Behave like a good actor in hemp so you're ready if regulation lands. For suppliers, this is about pruning and focus. Protect premium-plus brands that are still turning, be honest about mid and value brands, and stop assuming whiskey and legacy beer will bail you out. My take: 2026 is a mix game, not a volume game. The winners are the ones willing to cut slow, capital-heavy pieces of the portfolio. Move that energy into RTDs, cider, non-alc, premium tiers, and hemp, where it's legal. Waiting for the old world to come back is the riskiest strategy.