A+ trade incoming for bitcoin today? (don't miss this)

What's good guys, welcome back to another video. I'm going to break down the exact Bitcoin trade that I'm going to be looking for in today's video. Before I get into it though, if you're new here, welcome, my name is Schwinn. I have a 75% win rate publicly documented on these YouTube daily trade calls that I make right here on Bitcoin. If that gives you a bit of a reason to listen to me because I tend to be right a little bit more often compared to when I'm wrong, then yeah, let's just dive right into it. Now just to kick things off, now I'm just going to be straight up with you and tell you that the market conditions today are X. Really uncertain in a sense where if you take a look at yesterday's daily candle, we ended up closing just slightly bullish, and that is not a good recipe for success. And usually when I see this, I'm immediately just looking at a lot of choppiness for the next day. Now, it's not always the case that it does happen like that, but at least if you take a look at current price action, it is looking relatively choppy. The bright side here is the fact that we have just recently swept out some equal lows over here, which is the range lows. And currently we're making a move back towards the range high. Where you have a couple of relatively equal highs above there. Now, this movement right here feels very convincing, and it leads me to believe that okay, the liquidity down below here has already been swept out. Usually what happens is that when you take out the range low, you tend to go for the range high. Now, I'll give you a few examples of this happening. Now, if you take a look at the weekly chart, this is a range low. Once you take out the range low, guess where you're going? You're going to the range high. Technically, this is the range that I used to draw out like over the last few weeks, which means that's the range high. It's already been taken. Now, Usually once you take out the range high, you will have a tendency to return back to the range low because one of the core things you need to understand about range trading, when price is in a range, it tends to want to remain in a range. And a lot of the times you'll see, like for example, you get one sweep, a second sweep, maybe a third sweep, and then you get a fourth sweep. And then usually on this move right here, or the fifth move is when you get that kind of explosive breakout. Of course, this is just a rule of thumb. Don't treat this as gospel. It's not always like that. For all we know, we could just completely just start taking off from here. But what's important is to wait for this weekly candle to close first before we jump to any conclusions. Because for example, if this weekly candle here manages to close above $83,000, it shows that there is at least an interested pool of buyers who are again interested to keep price above this level. And it shows that there is buying volume to support the price action being at this level. Obviously, if we just end up getting a wick above, right, this week trades above this level, but then eventually closes down below, below this level right here shows you that this is a bit of a failure and there is just a lack of interested buyers who keep the price above this level, which means that chances are we're going to revisit some lower levels for buyers to load up again before we make another push towards the upside, which at the moment I've already marked this level out right here. I do expect to return back to this level at some point before the next big move. And apologies for suddenly shifting over to the higher timeframe, but the other couple of things that I do want to mention is that Yesterday, the overall target was— I mean, I can't really make this up. Like, this is absolutely spot on. We talked about $83,000. That level right here is the previous weekly high, right? And I said that price would come back to retrace and just kind of retest it to see if, you know, we will eventually hold or if we will just kind of break through. And one of the things that some of you have definitely mentioned is that, you know, my predictions have so far felt a bit like a crystal ball or like it's a bit like magic, right? At how easily I'm able to kind of predict these kind of tops and bottoms. But the truth is technical analysis is not really that There is only so many concepts that you can learn. A lot of the times though, what I notice with beginners or just intermediate traders or just people that I end up working with is that when you add too many concepts at the same time, that's when you get a lot of conflicting signals. So in reality, trading or technical analysis can be very simple. It's just a lot of people overcomplicate it, which causes their win rate to go down, which causes them to get confusion and stuff like that. If you have like 20 different indicators on the chart or maybe you follow like 10 different YouTubers or 5 different YouTubers every single day trying to understand like what are their thoughts on the market. Like it could be worth just narrowing that down to 1 to 2 maximum. In terms of your indicators, I trust that you don't really need too much. Like heck, the only indicator I have on my chart, it's not even really an indicator, it's just something to show me the time. 8:00 PM to 12:00 AM New York session. And over here is 2:00 AM to 5:00 AM London, New York session. And then you have 7:00 AM to 10:00 AM New York session. This is just literally showing me the— You know what time are the kill zones. By the way, today we have an overall bullish daily bias. We've seen that London has went ahead and swept out the range lows, followed by some sort of really strong bullish CSD, which means that the trade today is going to be very straightforward, where Asia is very likely going to be accumulation, London manipulation, and New York distribution. Just to go down to the 1-hourly chart as well before I start jumping into the lower time frames, and it just kind of started there because I just so happened to be on the 5-minute time frame. One last thing to mention is the fact that after the retest of $83,000 yesterday, we are now out getting a heads and shoulders pattern, or rather an inverse heads and shoulders pattern right here, with this being the neckline. And given the fact that range flow has already been swept, I do expect that at some point throughout the day we are going to make a push towards the upside. And so that's the trade that we're going to go for. Now, the overall order flow is technically already bullish, although this is a bearish CSD right here. So all I urge you to do is— the setup for today is going to be relatively straightforward, with one caveat. That setup being, like, for example, right now with manipulation here, like, I can already enter Right, right here, right now. Now, this is a wide— this is a slightly wider stop loss than I would otherwise like, because then in order for me to hit a 2R in this trade, I would need to aim for somewhere in the ballpark of $85,500. Which, is that likely? Well, let's take a look. Overall volatility that we are dealing with at the moment in terms of the average Bitcoin daily candle is about $2,500. Even if you were to give it, you know, $3,000. We started today at $83,700. We are currently at $84,800, which means $85,500 is very much within the realm of volatility that we can expect for, you know, the average daily candle. So am I going to count on it? Yeah, potentially. But either way, just to get back to the setup that I was trying to share for just now, it's the fact that, okay, Asia is very likely accumulation, and London, we have seen that the manipulation has already happened. One of the hallmarks, right, one of the biggest confirmations that you can use to confirm if London was indeed manipulation or if London is kind of like a breakout is the behavior of price after it sweeps Some key level. For example, this is a couple of relative equal lows that we marked out just now. After sweeping this level, we immediately got a strong push towards the upside with a lot of candle closures above all of these levels, which now turns this entire block right here into a bullish order block. Now, if this was not manipulation, then you would have seen the opposite happen where you would just kind of like continue to chop around or potentially show some indication that you want to continue going to the downside. Now, that would be an example of an Asia accumulation, London breakout, and a New York continuation. Now, this is just one of the session profiles that I cover in depth within the bootcamp. And I'm just going to take a minute right here to answer one of the most common questions that I've ever gotten, which is, does this system work on the Asia session or London session? Basically, does this system work outside of the New York session? Now, the short answer and the long answer is yes, it does. In fact, I would even say like sometimes it works even better compared to the New York session. Just to give you an idea, the head coach at AOC, his name is Sid. He's an amazing trader. He's an absolute wizard with the charts and just being able to trade very profitably. He trades exclusively on the London session. And then you have the Aussies and Kiwis that we have inside the bootcamp program where because of their time zone, they can't exactly trade the New York session unless they wanna stay up till 2:00 AM. They are exclusively trading the Asia session on gold, for example, and they are making an absolute killing. So yeah, it works on other sessions primarily because every session has its own kind of profile, right? Asia, just because it's accumulation doesn't mean you cannot trade it. If anything, if you take a look at the Asia session, this is quite a decent bit of volatility, almost as much and if not more than what you've got during the London session. And the London session obviously You look for manipulation and there is an exact playbook to trading the London session. Now, the only reason why all of my videos I seem to be trading only the New York session is because that just fits my lifestyle like the most. Living in Asia, I get to have the rest of my day from morning to the afternoon to just, you know, work on AOC, to spend some time in cafes, to visit interesting places. Now, a lot of you may not notice, but for the past 3 years I've been traveling like basically full-time. Currently in Korea right now. And guess what I'm doing when I'm not trading? Yeah, just being a tourist, right? Walking around, exploring new places, spending time like a normal human being. And overall, the reason why I trade the New York sessions just fits my lifestyle more. I come home, I have dinner, and boom, I hop on the charts. All right, I'd spend a couple of hours, no more than a couple of hours a day. And yeah, I either end up with a trade or I end up with a no trade. And then yeah, just rinse and repeat. It's a very sustainable trading system, doesn't require a lot of time, and most importantly, it's consistent as heck. If you'd like to learn this full system, by the way, feel free to click the first link in the description box below where you are not just going to be handed a course and just like, hey, go figure it out. The way our program works is that we're going to be holding your hand one-on-one from start to finish. And I really mean that. When you're learning the theory, we're going to be there to make sure that you're learning everything correctly. When you're in the practicing or like the backtesting phase, we are going to be personally reviewing your backtests to make sure that, okay, you think you understand the theory, but can you actually apply it onto your like trading, actually putting it into trades and making sure that you've got— you're thinking about the whole system the right way. And then even when you get into live trading, once a week you're going to hop on a call and we're going to review your journal, Basically saying like, man, you know, I know you weren't supposed to take this trade. So why did you end up taking this? And the reason why we do this is to just give you the fastest possible feedback loop. So instead of you running into a problem and then you spend the next month just repeating that same mistake without even knowing that you are making that mistake, we're there right away, catch onto it, fix it. And that's the reason why over 55% of the people that have ended up working with us, they get funded for at least $100,000 or they start making a full-time living from trading. Success rate is completely unheard of in the industry. And for 2 very obvious reasons. One, most of the trading gurus out there will not bother to track this. And secondly, most trading gurus out there don't really care for their students' success, but we do. And that's why we get results like nobody else. If you'd like to be the next success story, click the first link in the description box below and book a call. But otherwise, just get back into the trade today. Just understand, like, you are going to look for one very important condition to be met before you jump into any trade, which is the fact that you want to see the 5-minute chart give you continued bullish order flow as you enter into the New York session. Now, why am I talking about the New York session? That's probably the time that you're going to be watching this video. Obviously, I have the benefit of understanding how to trade London, and I could potentially just jump into a trade right here. Although, to be honest, I would much prefer taking a trade from here. I'm not going to explain why, but by the time you guys watch this video, it's going to be after the London session. So ideally, what you want to look for is for the market to continue to show signs of bullishness. Why? Because the entirety of this manipulation idea is hanging on the fact that this low right here swept out This key level and potentially stopped everyone out is going to be what is known as a protected low. And what is a protected low? Basically, if you think about the markets in terms of liquidity, you know that, or rather we know that after every buy-side liquidity sweep, the objective is to take people out. Once enough people have been taken out, there's no longer much reason or much incentive to go higher because, well, there's just not as much to be gained from these levels. And so the reason why you see these kinds of like, you know, seek and destroy, Range trading, liquidity sweep, whatever you want to call it. You form relatively equal lows, right? This is where a lot of people are going to be looking at this level and be like, oh yeah, this strong support, whatever. All right, you sweep all of these people out or potentially trick people into shorting at really low prices, and then you reverse the price, right? Go all the way to the other side and do the same for the people over here. This hinges on the fact that, okay, once the incentive— the fact that we have gotten this bullish CSD over here, it means that the incentives are no longer as present, right? It's not to mean that everyone is stopped out. Like, you're always going to have markets, you're always going to have people, you're always going to have liquidity. It's just like, okay, Is the liquidity here bigger than the liquidity over here? If so, then we expect this low to be protected, especially after sweeping out some key levels. And so in the event that you guys watch this video and price actually comes all the way back down here, guess what? The thesis is invalidated. Gotta understand that just because this is likely to hold as a protected low does not mean the probability is 100%. A 60% over 40% probability is still— like, this still makes it the more likely outcome, but it does not make this A certain outcome. It just means that as long as we continue to use this concept or to repeatedly take this action over the long term, right? Let's say we take a protected low versus an unprotected low for like 1,000 trades. We are gonna be right, let's say 70% of the time, like on 700 times, and we're gonna be wrong 300 times, which again is a recipe for consistent profits. So much of trading simply boils down to that, right? How many times can you consistently take the higher probability action over the lower probability action and repeat this over time? So by the time you guys watch this video, if this happens, it's just going to end up being a no trade, just like yesterday, right? We took a look at the overall manipulation, right? Yesterday was also accumulation, manipulation, distribution, by the way. Asia accumulation, we had a bearish daily bias. We had a very key level over here, which let me just move this slightly up because like, you know, that's the true level. During the London session, we swept above the Asia high, right? Stopped out all of the liquidity above here. And then you immediately gave a CSD towards the downside. Now, was there an opportunity for me to get in there? Potentially, but that would have been a very wide stop. Now, either way, once you finished the manipulation, You distributed all the way to the key level over there. And during the New York session, you just showed continued bullish order flow. Now, if you guys remember during the video that I made yesterday, I was like, okay, what you want to do is you want to see price come back into this key level right here, and then you need to see bearish order flow. But then all throughout 7 AM to 10 AM yesterday, we just got bullish, bullish, bullish, bullish, bullish. Guess what? That becomes a no trade. Just because we planned for a trade, just because I did some work making a video telling you guys all about this level right here, Does not mean that when price gets into this level, I'm just going to force something. That's unfortunately not how trading works. Trading works when you map out a couple of high probability scenarios that you think are going to work, and then you come up with a couple of conditions that are needed to be present. For example, yesterday was super simple. This is the key level. This condition number one: I want price to touch this blue box. Condition number two: I need price to touch this blue box sometime between 7 a.m. to 10 a.m. because that is the New York chosen. And then. Third condition is that once you touch this blue box within 7 AM to 10 AM, you want to see somewhat of a bearish breakdown, which unfortunately you did not. This was just super bullish. You're making higher highs and higher lows all the way until past the kill zone. And then you got that bearishness. And then that's the point where a lot of people started to jump into the price because they've been waiting all morning trying to take a trade on this. But then the moment they see that sign happening, but it's outside of the kill zone, they're like, yeah, you know what? I've been waiting all morning. I've been like putting in work all morning, looking at the chart, and they're going to get into it. And guess what? Everyone's going to get stopped out. That's not how trading works. It's you have a set of conditions that need to be present. If they are not present, you don't take the trade. If they're present, doesn't matter how you feel. Even if you feel a little bit scared or anxious and nervous or whatever, you're taking the trade. So yeah, anyways, a little bit animated today, but either way, like, yeah, as long as this does not get violated today, you're going to be all good to take a trade. If not, and in the event that you watch this video right here and price has already hit the range high, you know, it is, it does leave a bit of room for concern. But what you want to see then is just for price to, again, when you retest this level, right? When you go above this level, you are going to retest this level. Do you see any sort of indication that price is continuing to make bullish order flow as you head into the New York session to potentially turn this range right here into a potential breakout? Now, if you see the signs over there, don't hesitate to take a momentum trade. So many people get really afraid of momentum trading where basically, like, you know, let's say the initial move starts here, but then by the time they look at the chart, you know, the price is already over here. So many people get afraid of trading Like basically buying high and selling higher. But in reality, this is some of the highest probability trades that you can possibly take. Because the issue that most people don't really think about when I'm trying to catch this initial manipulation and kind of move, right, basically the start of the move, is that I'm really very much guessing, right? I'm making an educated guess that the trend has already reversed because prior to this, price is in a downtrend, right? At some point, the trend reverses, and jumping in early means that your probabilities are going to be a bit lower because you haven't had enough confirmation yet. The beautiful thing about momentum trading which is essentially buy high, sell higher, or sell low, buy back lower, is that you have the luxury of having the trend already confirmed, which means now you're jumping into a high probability move. Now, sure, like the absolute magnitude of the movement that you're going to get is not going to be that great. But you know what's a beautiful thing? If I set my stop loss like this, I would need to move all the way to $85,500 in order to get a 2R. Guess what happens if I were to, you know, let me just go back to an example if I can find it. For example, right, I'm just going to look at this chart right here and I'm going to, you know, for example's sake, I'm going to use this as an Right? This is the initial CSD right here. In the event that I were to place my stop loss here, my entry right here, I place my stop loss above. And let's say I need to target 2R, right? Because that's that's the way that my system works. I go for a minimum per trade. If the trade idea is worth less than 2R, I don't take it because it's just not worth the risk to reward. This is the initial entry right here where the initial CSD happens. Now guess what happens if I just wait for a new order block to form? Like for example, this order block right here. Then I place my stop loss. Sorry, my entry here. I'll place my stop here. And I'll place it at 2R. Guess what? In both situations, I get 2R. Now, obviously this did not play out. Again, this is just an example for example's sake. But notice how much smaller the stop loss is over here compared to the initial entry. Just because you're early doesn't mean you're going to make more money. Like so often, I found myself making more money by exclusively taking momentum trades where I can get a pretty refined risk to reward. And this has been the exact case with my students as well. Like some of the most profitable students are the ones that are just kind of jumping into confirmed trends and taking momentum trades. In fact, A lot of the struggling students that I've had, historically speaking, are the ones who try to catch that early move. They either start looking at the chart way too early, or they just jump in at the first sign of confirmation. And again, at that point, you're dealing with lower probability in your kind of trading conditions because simply put, you're jumping in at the first sign of a trend reversal. Instead, wait for a confirmation of the trend and jump in at that point. Guess what's going to happen? You're going to have an easier time making money. Things are going to be a lot cleaner, and you're going to spend less time actually looking at the chart because at that point, You're catching the tail ends of these moves where they're usually pretty quick and you know accelerate pretty quickly. Let's just put it that way. Either way, so much alpha that's shared within this video, and I really hope that this doesn't fall on deaf ears because the truth is like these videos they have a shelf life of maybe eight hours, right? Maybe five. What I'm trying to say here is that when I put these videos out, people are going to watch it, and after a few hours it's not going to be as relevant anymore, which is why I don't necessarily have to share this much alpha or like just try to get. Teach as much as, you know, as I am with these videos. If you guys appreciate the teachings and the alpha that I'm sharing, like, I'd love for you to drop a comment down below just to see who's actually staying all the way to the end of the video and still paying attention and potentially valuing the alpha that I'm sharing. Now, obviously, if you also think that I should not share as much alpha, not share as much teachings, and just kind of get straight to the point, like, hey, yeah, this is the trade, which I would think would not be particularly beneficial because it's not really about giving you a fish. It's kind of like, if I can help teach you how to fish, like, That's ultimately the goal, right? But you let me know. By the way, if I'm jumping into a trade today, I'm gonna be posting it on Twitter as usual. None of my trades are gated behind some signals groups or whatever, so just feel free to follow me there. But otherwise, I'll see you guys next week. Ciao ciao.