be VERY careful when trading bitcoin today (here's why)

What's good guys, welcome back to another video. It's a brand new week and you know what that means, we're gonna get brand new opportunities to get some decent trades right here on Bitcoin. And I'm gonna break down exactly what to look for this week when it comes to Bitcoin. I'm also going to break down the exact trade that I'm going to be looking for in terms of today. And yeah, before we get into it, real quick, my name is Xuan. I've been publicly documenting the success rate of all of these trade calls that you see right here on YouTube over the past year and a half, and currently I'm at about a 75% win rate, which basically just means that I tend to be right just a tiny bit more than I'm wrong. And if that gives you a good reason to listen to me, then yeah, let's dive into the video. Oh, also By the way, just real quick, we have a second channel where I'm posting very tactical and highly specific trading-related advice and solving very specific trading problems. If you're interested, you'll find it somewhere within this video or just in the description box below. But yeah, now let's get into the video. So kicking things off, we're always going to start off on the weekly chart because like always important to do your analysis from the top down. You don't want to be starting off on the lower timeframes. In this case here on the weekly chart, I'm seeing that last week ended up closing bullish. And not only that, but we are very close to this liquidity level over here at $83,000, which means that more likely than not, this week I'm going to be looking for some sort of a move or some sort of an expansion towards the upside, towards this level. The other thing that stands out to me is the fact that previously we had a fair value gap down here, and this already got filled last week before an expansion towards the upside. Now, this is only going to give me further confidence that this week is going to be, well, more likely than not, a strong move towards the upside. And from where the weekly candle opened up, it's at around $79,000. And given our target is at around $82,000, this is a very realistic target. And I'm going to show you what I mean. This right here is the average volatility that we can expect on every single weekly candle. And you can see that the average right now sits at around $6,000. If you ignore the fact that weekends have basically zero volatility but is still being counted into this calculation, then reasonably speaking, right, you could look at potentially $7,000 or so of a weekly candle movement. Now what that means exactly is that from on average, from the low to the high of every single weekly candle, you're looking at around $7,000 or $6,000 worth of movement. Last week we opened the week up at $76,000, or rather the low of the week was at $76,000 and high of the week was at $82,000, right at around that $6K kind of target. And this week I think we can reasonably expect something similar. And if that is the case, then yeah, this target is more than realistic, and that's what we're going to go for. Now moving down into the daily chart, yes, I know yesterday and the day before ended up, you know, closing bullish, but what you need to understand about today is that it's Labor Day, which means that the US markets is technically not open today. So just because we have price action today and just because the market is technically open, it also means that today is highly likely to be a one of those low probability days where it just chops around or just gives you a couple of false moves. But before we continue on with the rest of the video, I just felt responsible for at least notifying you of this. So just because we have a trade idea today does not mean that it's going to come to fruition. And more likely than not, I'm going to try to stay out of the markets today because as a trader, I understand that I don't need to be trading every single day. If anything, I found that over the years there's been a recurring trend with my performance, which is that I'm able to catch good trades, right? That's not the issue. When I see an A+ setup, I tend to take it, and it usually yields, you know, pretty good results. The struggle that I had, and I imagine a lot of you are having as well, is how to stay out of the bad days, right? It's like, you know what a good trade looks like, but at the same time, you cannot prevent yourself from— you just can't help yourself by taking all of the bad trades that you know you shouldn't be taking. And one of the easiest ways to prevent this is to simply avoid low probability days. If possible. What are these examples of low probability days? Well, they tend to be Mondays because they tend to have no news. Now today you have another problem stacked on top of the fact that today has no news, which is the fact that today is literally a bank holiday. So chances are I'm going to still go into the lower timeframes to see if I can find a trade. Just understand that if we end up having to stay out today, it's actually very sound and responsible advice. But yeah, taking a look at the news though, now that we're on the topic, we can see that the majority of the news for this week is actually going to come on Thursday and Friday. So we can reasonably Anticipate that potentially the two biggest moves of the week are going to come on Thursday and Friday, and Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday might just be like setting up. And understanding the fact that we have a bullish weekly bias means that if Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday heads towards the downside, and right now I can see that there is an order block right here. If Monday, Tuesday heads into this order block and Wednesday starts pointing towards the upside, I'm going to be having much more confidence on Thursday and Friday that they're going to be expansion days like this. So basically Monday, Tuesday, potentially Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, right? That's just what I'm looking for. Doesn't mean it's going to come true, but I'm just trying to build a narrative from the information that. We have on the weekly chart. By the way, daily bias is technically bullish today, but again, we have a reason to believe that price is going to head towards this order block. So let's just go into the lower time frames to see what we can make of this. And so far I can see that, yeah, we are pretty bearish on a 1-hourly chart actually. Not only do we have a bearish CICD— that is undeniable bearish CICD on a 1-hourly chart— but this occurred after sweeping out the liquidity from the weekend, right? Notice this, right after the liquidity sweep you give an aggressive move towards the downside. Not only that, but you've got a bearish CICD as well. This tells me that just because the daily bias Technically bullish today, I'm not actually going to be leaning towards going long today. Now, yes, I know that liquidity here has already been taken, but the fact that you have a one-hourly bearish CSD means that at the very minimum, to be considered bullish, you would need to get a candle close above 79,720, right? And one-hourly candle body close, right? The body needs to close like this above this level in order to confirm any sort of bullishness. And at the moment, doesn't seem like it's going to happen. So the approach I'm going to take today is to lean towards shorts, and the area where I'm going to do this from is going to be this one-hour. The order block right here. So basically today, between the hours of 7:00 AM to 10:00 AM, as long as you retrace back into this level and you show some sort of indication that you are going to go towards the downside, that is going to be the direction you're going to be trading in for today. Technically speaking, even if you just wanted to use the 1-hour chart and just set a limit on the order block and just target the most recently formed swing low, it's also valid. It's going to yield you potentially a 4:1 risk-to-reward ratio. Not saying that's the absolute smartest thing to do, which is why we're going to go into the lower time frames. And actually, the lower time frames also support this theory. In the fact that yeah, this is the order block, and as long as you don't trade above the order block, chances are you're going to go down. Now, the reason why I'm asking you to wait for confirmation though is because of two things. One, today's Monday; there's no news. I've already kind of painted that picture. But secondly, just because we have a trade idea doesn't mean that the market is going to agree with the trade idea. So it's important that once price gets into the level, and this has this specific advice here has saved me from countless times where I would have gotten faked out by a move, which is. Once price actually gets into your key level, you want to make sure that the market shows some indication that it's going in the direction that you are looking for. For example, if you're anticipating the market to go towards the downside, once it taps into this bearish order block on the 5-minute chart, right, on your lower timeframe or whatever your execution timeframe is, you want to see some sort of market structure shift. You want to see some sort of changes there, delivery, whatever method that you use. Just make sure that when you get into the level, market shows some indication. Now what this does is that, okay, step 1, you have a trade idea, which is once market comes into here, it will go down. But Your trade idea, or rather what you think the market's going to do, is rarely going to be a very profitable kind of strategy to trade from. What you want to do instead is when a market comes into your area of or wherever your idea is, you want to see signs that market also agrees with whatever you think is going to happen. And if that happens, then yeah, you've got an A+ setup on your hands, and that's exactly what we're going to be looking for today. And if these conditions are met, like I would honestly even suggest maybe not taking profit all the way at the swing lows and just going for a 2R, meaning like let's say I end up you know, this ends up being my stop loss. I would just place my target at around a 2:1 risk-to-reward ratio where this is like 1 unit of risk and I'm getting back 2 units of reward for whatever money that I'm risking. And the reason why I'm prescribing this is because again, today's Monday, it's just the first day of the week. Secondly, it's a national holiday, or rather a bank holiday. That's what really matters to us, not necessarily a national holiday. So chances are we might even just kind of end up chopping around throughout the New York session. So something to pay attention to. And obviously if price just continues trading towards the upside and, you know, breaks above this level right It just means that the short idea is invalidated, and I wouldn't necessarily just look to jump back into the markets too soon for the reasons that I've already mentioned. Right? It's a bank holiday. You might as well take today off. But if you are dead set on taking a trade today, then this is exactly what I would look for. And again, like this is the liquidity target right here. If you if you're seeing the market like play out really really nicely and you're getting like clean movements and clean volatility, then it wouldn't hurt to target the existing swing low that has formed or just all the way down at like seventy six thousand or rather seventy eight thousand six hundred dollars and. That's how I would approach the markets. And by the way, if a lot of the stuff and concepts that I've talked about here kind of sounds like mumbo jumbo to you, I actually posted a video yesterday breaking down exactly what is an order block, how do you identify order blocks correctly, how do you use the order blocks in order to get solid trade ideas. I also teach you how to look at liquidity, how to identify which area of liquidity is like the best, and I also show you like in a very beginner-friendly way of what is a CUSD and how do you determine what is a CUSD. If that sounds interesting to you, then just click the video that's going to pop up magically right here. And otherwise, I'll see you guys tomorrow. Ciao, ciao.