be VERY cautious when trading bitcoin today (here's why)

What's good guys, welcome back to another video. I'm gonna break down the exact trade that I'm going to be looking at for Bitcoin for today, and truth be told, today's market conditions are a little bit weird, and so you're going to want to be a little bit more cautious when you approach today. I'm going to break it down all in this video. Before we do though, if you're new here, welcome, my name is Xuan. I have been publicly documenting the success rate of all of these trade calls that I've been making on YouTube for the last year and a half, and so far I'm at a 75% win rate, which means I tend to be right just a tiny bit more compared to when I'm wrong. So hopefully that gives you a reason to listen to the stranger on the internet. But with that out of Let's get into the video. And kicking things off, we have the daily chart. And I'm going to take a little bit of time later to break down the trade from yesterday because yesterday was a really weird day and there are a couple of lessons that we can learn from that. And one very important lesson that you can take from the, the way yesterday kind of played out that will help save you a lot of money down the line. So just to kick things off for today, we are looking at a bearish daily bias because yesterday we ended up closing bearish. The last couple of days as well, we ended up closing bearish. And if you take a look at the lower timeframe price action, this is for the most part pretty bearish, right? You have lower lows and lower highs, and order flow is very clearly bearish. Now, this changes though, because today we actually got a bullish CIST. And if you know anything about the system that we trade, is that ideally we want to be taking trades where we have timeframe alignment, where basically the higher timeframe, the middle timeframe, and the lower timeframe are all pointing in the same direction. And clearly that is not the case so far. Just realized like my face was getting like the background is getting absolutely blown out. So sorry about that. I fixed it, hopefully. So when I say that is clearly not the case right now, it basically means that the daily chart is pointing towards the downside. Right? But the 1-hourly is at the moment pointing towards the upside. And so already we're getting a bit of timeframe misalignment. Now, the reason why this rule is important is because the best trades that, you know, I've ever taken on, you know, using the system are the trades where they're just super easy and straightforward. And the reason why they were easy, straightforward, and high quality was because every single timeframe was pointing in the same direction. But just because we have timeframe misalignment does not mean that the trade is automatically done for today. It's just we want to take on a much more cautious approach when we approach the markets today. The best way I can explain this is that at any given moment in the markets, you're always trying to balance between, all right, how risky is this? And based on, like, for example, in this trade right here, we have things that are pointing towards the fact that, all right, today's probably going to be a less good trading day for Bitcoin, not only because we have timeframe misalignment, but we also have absolutely no news for today. And when you put both of these factors together, you're ending up with a day where chances are it's not going to be great. So when you deal with a day that is lower quality, how do you compensate for that? Right? How do you tip the scales back into your balance? And we do this by being more conservative with our actions. So instead, let's say usually we would wait for maybe 2 confirmations before we enter the trade. Well, today we're going to look for 3 confirmations, right? The fact that we're being more conservative is being used to compensate for the fact that we're dealing with lower probability market conditions. Or another way that, you know, we're going to be doing this is to reduce the amount of risk that we're taking on trades like today, period. So for example, if usually we would risk $1,000 on this single trade, well, today we might Just go for $500 risk per trade at the very maximum. Again, this is us compensating for the fact that like this is not the best trading day for Bitcoin, and I'm going to be super honest with you. This is not a day that I would trade, but I'm still going to break it down regardless in the event that you know you are looking to get into some sort of a trade. And this is a very similar situation to what we had yesterday. For example, in the video yesterday, I basically told you guys that okay, if you were to retrace back into this order block right here and you start breaking lower, then this would be a you know that would be the trade that we're looking for. Unfortunately though, if you guys follow me on Twitter, which I'm just going to pull. This up so you know I'm not just pulling this out of nowhere. So over here at around 8:30 AM, I posted the fact that, okay, I would love for this liquidity to get swept first before seeing the breakdown, because otherwise you're going to end up with relatively equal highs. And so what ended up happening was we have these relatively equal highs where near the liquidity wasn't swept, but we ended up getting a CSD towards the downside, which is exactly, if you recall, what I was looking for as a trade idea from yesterday. So what did I do? Well, I still entered the trade, but I reduced my risk on that trade heavily because I know that there are a couple of factors. Well, a couple of factors, namely the fact that we have relative equal highs lowering the probability of the trade yesterday. And so I compensate for that by going lower risk. It would be a mistake for me to go and treat this as the, like, a high-quality trade setup and risk, like, proper money behind it because it's not. The reality of, you know, trading in any financial market is that you're always just dealing with ever-changing conditions. So it's always a game of a balancing act, right? If the market conditions are absolutely amazing and you're, let's say, a very conservative trader, then the mistake would actually be to continue to remain too conservative in an amazing market condition. Because by you doing that, you're literally shooting yourself in the foot and just missing out on opportunities where they are abundant. So in that case, you would actually be more risky, right? And usually you would wait for 2 confirmations. Well, now you only need to wait for 1 confirmation and then you can start entering in. If usually you would only risk $500 per trade, then now you would risk $1,000 per trade because of the market conditions. So hopefully that makes sense. And the second lesson that I really wanted to impart, and this is going to help you guys a lot, is not taking trades into relatively equal highs or relatively equal lows if possible. Now, relatively equal highs and lows are, you know, it's a bit of a fancy sounding name, but like, as the name implies, I think the easiest way that you guys can understand this is the fact that these are just double tops or double bottoms in the event of lows. So why do we not trade into double tops? Well, Well, this boils down to an understanding of liquidity, right? How does liquidity in the markets work? Well, we know that the markets tend to move for a reason. That reason tends to be to stop out previous traders or to get liquidity from previous swing highs and swing lows. Now, if price happens to stop right before a key liquidity point, there is usually a reason for that. Now, I'm not going to go full conspiracy theorist mode and tell you I know exactly why this happens, but We've seen it enough times now to where this can reliably be a pattern that we look for. Now, when you get these relatively equal highs forming without sweeping the liquidity that we were looking for, what ends up happening is that it's going to slightly edge down, right? To trick people into thinking like, yeah, okay, the conditions are met and price is actually going down. But in reality, this is just to kind of get people to commit early before eventually sweeping them out, right? As you saw what happened yesterday. Now, full disclosure, I did end up taking a trade here because I did think that the conditions were met, right? Full disclosure. I ended up taking this, but again, I compensated for this by reducing the amount of risk that I was taking on the trade. And part of, and that's also the reason why I did not end up posting this trade onto Twitter because I just had a feeling, not even had a feeling. I just know that this was not a quality trade setup. And knowing that there are literally at this point, thousands of you like watching my Twitter every day for my trade setup, I feel responsible, right, for making the right calls. So I'm not going to make calls that I know for a fact are lower probability. So yeah, in the event that, you know, next time you see relatively equal highs form forming right before, like, you know you have a valid trade idea. But ideally, you want to be trading into highs that have already been swept. Like, it would be a completely different story if we actually swept out this high and then you get that CSD. This high becomes a protected high. This high becomes a strong high. Now, I know that sounds like a fancy term, but it literally just refers to, again, the understanding of liquidity. Knowing that the markets usually move somewhere because of liquidity, you can imagine that when liquidity above has been taken out, well, guess what? The next, you know, most reliable source of liquidity is going to be below. And assuming we are going for a short, which we were yesterday, then if we had a strong high, this would be a much higher quality trade, and I would be way more confident not only calling this trade but also putting more money behind this trade. As tempting as it might be to trade into double tops or double bottoms, they rarely play out. And in the rare event that they do, it doesn't matter anyways, because statistically, right, if you play this out, right, if you play double tops and double bottoms out for like, I don't know, 1,000 times, chances are you're going to end up with maybe 40% of the time they work and 60% of the time they don't work and they end up stopping you out. That is statistically a bad kind of decision over the long run. And if we know anything about what it takes to be successful at trading long-term, not just making some money here and then losing it all, then it literally boils down to, all right, we want to be taking high probability outcomes over low probability outcomes and repeating that every single day throughout the rest of time. And if we can do that, and that's how we ensure that we remain successful as traders. It's not a very interesting answer. It's definitely not a very sexy answer, but genuinely this type of discipline to just stick to the basics is what actually pays the bills. And keeps things consistent. So now that the rant is over and the you know the lesson is over, let's get back into the trade setup for today. Now again, we've already identified the fact that we now have a bullish CSD on the one hourly chart. Now if we take a look at the five minute chart, we can see that okay, we have the bullish CSD, but in terms of the five minute chart, we have swept out the Asia high. And one of the textbook setups for the system that we're trading right now is when we trade above the Asia high, right? This basically means that the liquidity above the Asia high is now taken. If we are also having a bearish daily bias, then this would be the best. Kind of area to look for a short. And so that is most likely going to be the trade setup that we're still going to look for. Like, for example, by the time you watch this video, you get a CSD on the 5-minute chart where basically price closes below this level right here at 77,600, then this would still be a valid trade setup where you take the trade and you place your TP at 2R. Now, the caveat to this is the fact that because you have a bullish CSD on the 1-hourly chart, this lowers the probability. And that's why I am not taking this first CSD right here, right? Technically, we already have a CSD, but the reason why I'm looking for an undeniable CSD is because, again, if usually I would need one confirmation, well, when market conditions are not as good, I'm going to look for 2 confirmations, right? This is compensating for the fact that I am dealing with overall lower probability conditions. So when you get into the New York session for today, you're going to look for undeniable proof that price is in fact bearish. But if I'm going to be honest, if you can stay out for today that will be the best. The fact that we have clear timeframe misalignment on a non-news day already screams to me that like this is not the best day for trading. And me personally, I would rather just save my ammunition for a day where it's actually worth, you know, putting time and money into. That's just how I think of it. But in the event that you're looking for a trade, then this is going to be the setup. But in the event that price ends up going super bullish, like for example, it starts making higher highs and higher lows by the time you enter into the New York session, which is between the hours of 7:00 AM to 10:00 AM. Then you could look for a long. Now again, would you go full risk on that? No, because again, you have timeframe misalignment here. But in terms of the 1-hour chart, it's definitely pointing towards the upside. If the 5-minute chart also points towards the upside, then that's the direction that you take. So at this point, you might be wondering why 7 AM to 10 AM? Well, the thing you need to understand about the markets is that there are 2 axes on your chart. There's the y-axis, which is price action, which is what most people tend to focus on. Oh yeah, we got resistance. Oh yeah, we got order block, whatever. But that's not the only side of the equation. You have also the x-axis, which is time. And believe it or not, certain things happening at certain times either increases or lowers the probability of that trade playing out. So depending, like for example, as you enter 7 AM to 10 AM, if price is doing this, then that's the direction that you take. If price is doing this, then this is the direction that you take. Now, if you can sense a bit of like hesitation for me to just kind of like give you a pure like straight up direction, which I tend to do when it's a solid trading day, then yeah, that's also a sign that I'm kind of doing my job correctly. Where like, yeah, truth be told, this is not the best trading day. I would not trade this, and I would recommend that you don't. But if you want, then that is the playbook that you want to follow, which is once you get into the New York session, depending on how price ends up playing out or which direction the 5-minute order flow kind of points, then that's the one that you take. Now personally, this doesn't mean that today's just going to be straight up a no-trade day because we still have other assets to look at. For example, NASDAQ is playing out pretty well. USD/JPY just had an insane move like throughout the Asia session today because the Bank of Japan had a bit of news, and this is price action that we could catch, we don't necessarily just have to look at Bitcoin. Because after all, when it comes to trading, the job of a trader is literally to just trade whatever best asset there is on for that particular day. We're never married to a certain asset. Just because I make videos about Bitcoin primarily doesn't mean that's the only chart that I'm trading. Also just looking around like, hey, okay, uh, if I look through 10 charts and okay, I can decide that, oh yeah, gold is probably the best, cleanest setup for today, which by the way, look at gold. Gold is trending very nicely. Bullish daily bias. You have a bullish 1-hourly order flow, and in about a couple of hours from now, you're probably going to confirm this order block right here. And if it does, boom, boom, retrace into the order block between the hours of 7 to 10, and off you go. Super straightforward, right? Notice how it took me way less time to come up with a trade idea on gold compared to Bitcoin, where I had to justify this and justify that. That already is a bit of a red flag. So not really the most exciting video that I've ever made, but generally, if you understand how to just sit out of the markets, which I've kind of— hopefully I've taught you how. It's a skill that's going to serve you really well in any stage of your trading career. But anyways, if I'm going to be posting a trade today, I'm going to be posting it on Twitter. And by the way, if you want to work with us one-on-one to learn this system for yourself and have us install the right mental model so that you know exactly how to think about the markets in a way that is going to get you consistent and profitable over the long term, feel free to click the first link in the description box below. At this point, we have had close to 65 students so far, and about half of them are either funded or just full-time trading. So that's a success rate that I think Not many other programs can claim. And I'm only sharing this metric because I know like we genuinely care about student success and student results. So yeah, if you've been putting time into trading and you know you could be getting way more results for the effort that you're putting in, but you just don't really know what is exactly wrong or what you're doing wrong, click the first link in the description box below. We can help out. Otherwise, I'll see you guys in tomorrow's video. Ciao ciao.