big dump incoming for Bitcoin this week?! (get ready)

What's good guys, welcome back to another video. It's a new week and you know what that means, we have new opportunities on Bitcoin. Now this week is going to be an interesting kind of week and I'm going to break down the weekly outlook when it comes to Bitcoin as well as the trade that I'm going to be looking for in terms of today. Before we get into it though, if you're new here, welcome, my name is Xuan. I've been publicly documenting the success rate of these trade calls for the last year and a half or so, and publicly I'm at about a 75% win rate. So all that means for you is that chances are you're in the right place because I tend to be right just a tiny bit more compared to when I'm wrong. But we're going to kick things off on the weekly bias, because it's good to understand what the weekly has in store for us before we jump into the lower time frames. Just like how we wouldn't start our analysis on the 5-minute chart, right? We always want to follow the direction of the higher time frame bias. And so that's why we're going to be starting off this time around. And so far, the weekly bias is bearish. Why bearish? Because it closed bearish. On paper, it doesn't seem like a very sophisticated way of predicting what the overall direction of, you know, the next candle is going to be. And yet, in the last I don't know how many years that I've been doing this. This is a very simple yet foolproof method. 70 to 75% of the time we tend to get it right. And I'm not just pulling this out of nowhere. This is like OGs. You guys have seen this work time and time again. And if it seems like voodoo magic, I don't really understand it either, but it works and I'm going to stick with it. So, so far we're looking at a bearish daily bias, which means that we will immediately set our eyes to some weekly liquidity targets that we can go for. Now, obviously the major one is going to be right here at 57,600. Now, one of the core things that you will immediately be able to kind of realize with the fact that right now we're looking for a move towards the downside— that was quite a mouthful— is that we are currently in a range. And if you understand anything about this system, is that this system tends to struggle when Bitcoin, or any asset for that matter, is trading in a range. So if we take a look at the average volatility chart over here, you can see that it has been in a very clear downtrend, right? In the past, on a weekly, single weekly candle in the span of 7 days, we could reasonably expect $10,000 up and down, right? Assuming this is the entire span of the weekly candle, you have $10K. Right now you're sitting closer to $6K and this is only going lower. And in fact, like, it's quite obvious to see from the chart as well, right? Very little volatility. And even the last few weeks has been trading severely below the expected kind of range. For example, starting from 5 weeks ago, basically the start of July, The low of the candle was $61K and the high of the candle was $64K, right? So this is a range of about $3K. This is also $3K. This is $3K. This is $3K. And so you get the idea, right? On average, even though we're supposed to be expecting $6,000 worth of volatility, 1, 2, 3, 4 weeks in a row, we have fallen very far short of that number. So if you have been struggling with the system, or if you've noticed over the last few weeks, my amount of no-trade days have gone up significantly, that is not a mistake. That is by design. The fact that I am getting a lot of no trade signals means that my system is working properly. After all, it does not work as well during a range, and so if it is printing aggressive like, hey, buy now, sell here, whatever kind of signals to tell me to get into the markets, that is a very clear sign that either I am the one that's broken because, you know, I'm just falling prey to FOMO and impatience and I just want to trade for the sake of dopamine, or B, the system's broken. Because in order to have very clear signals as to what makes a trade a good trade or a valid trade, you also need to have some pretty black and white signals for when does it constitute a no trade. So now we're going to go into the daily bias, and based on what we can see so far, we have a bullish candle close on Sunday but a bearish candle close on Friday. And so far this day has been trading incredibly bearish, uh, the overall trend as well, um, which is really important to note is that you have gotten rejected at this order block, it broke lower, and then you formed a new order block, broke lower, and then you are now coming into this new order block. So in terms of the daily chart, I'm going to mark out this order block over here and then and we're going to go into the lower time frames. Now, this is the 1-hour chart. Clearly, order flow is incredibly bearish. In about 23 minutes, um, chances are we're going to get a candle close beneath 62,500 over here, which means that this is going to be a very undeniable CSD. Now, this is also followed by the fact that we have a strong high over here, which means the playbook for today should be quite simple. I think today is going to be one of those days where we just completely ignore the bullish candle close mainly because, well, two reasons. One, it's a Sunday, and usually I would treat the Sunday thing like I would treat— like I would just trade the Sunday kind of candle close. At the same time, order flow overall has been quite bearish. Secondly, I wouldn't be able to reasonably call any sort of long for today considering that if you— especially if you get this bearish CSD, which is undeniable over here, uh, A, you're going to be trading into this entire order block over here, B, you're going to be trading into this order block. All it means is that you're going to be trading into a lot of resistance. So even if you have a long signal, right, it'll be tough to execute that. So So in terms of today, I think I'm going to make the call to kind of ignore the Sunday candle close, and I'm going to use the overall order flow both on the daily chart as well as the 1-hourly chart as my overall bias. You will have noticed that I am treating today as a trading day, which is rare because I tend to say that Mondays are just an extended weekend where a lot of the times, even if price action does add up, the probability, right, the win rate of the day itself is going to be pretty low because you wouldn't have a reason for price to move. Well, guess what? If you take a look news today. We actually have news today at 10:00 AM, red folder, high-impact news, which means the ideal trading window for today is going to be between 9:00 AM to 11:00 AM, and it makes Monday tradable. And so we're going to take advantage of that. Now, there are two setups that I'm going to be eyeing in terms of today. The first of which is to come back into this daily order block. Uh, when you do, starting at 62,800, this is going to be more than valid enough for you to jump into a trade. At that point. And B is that once you get this kind of close over here at 62,500, then you're going to just wait for a retrace and price to continue heading lower. Now, in terms of the overall daily targets for today, I can see that there is a couple of, you know, liquidity levels that we can go for, first of which is at 61,800, and then you have a bunch of relatively equal lows over here, like just all throughout here. Uh, it should be pretty easy to spot, but that alone should be a very decent target. Now, the way that you're going to navigate today is going to be to just wait for new order blocks to to form. For example, as price is dumping right here, this is a new order block. You literally wait for price to break down, retest, and your entry and stop is going to be very simple. Now you might think that, oh, isn't this very risky? It feels like, you know, you're just trading from the middle of nowhere. But you will be surprised to know that some of the most profitable trades and biggest winners that I've ever had are momentum trades, where basically we just identify— all right, we wait for a trend confirmation. Now we can identify that it's bearish, and then from that point onwards, it's like, okay, the train's already moving, we're just going to hop on some at some point throughout the journey and then get off at some point throughout the journey. And this, believe it or not, has been an absolute revelation. Not only is it super simple, it's almost brain dead. In fact, the only reason why people don't really do this is because they think that trading should be a lot more sophisticated than this. It feels like this is not a strategy that would work, and yet you will be surprised at how profitable this is. So either way, like, as we head into, you know, the New York session, I'm going to be posting any trade updates on X, so feel free to follow me there. It's at The Art Of Crypto. But if I do get into any trades, I'm definitely going to let you guys know. But essentially, you're just waiting for some sort of a retest into either the daily order block or to confirm that 1-hour daily CIC. And then you're just going to wait for new order blocks on the 5-minute to form, and off you go. In terms of the targets, we are looking at 61800, and then of course we're looking at those multiple relatively equal lows over here. In terms of the daily chart, um, I'm not going to mark them out, but And you know what, just for the sake of the video so that you guys can see it, 61,660, 61,500, 61,300— those are all valid targets. Uh, me personally, I would probably just go for a 2R trade today, meaning like wherever my entry and stop loss is, I would target for 2 risk to rewards basically. Like, you know, for example, my entry and stop loss happen to be here, I will target for 2R, which looks like this, right? Just set the number to 2 and you're going to be all Good. And if you have more than 2R as a trade today, like, that is going to be a big win. Now again, be aware that we are going to be trading against the daily bias today, meaning like the daily bias is technically bullish. We're supposed to be looking for a bullish trade, but for reasons that I've already explained, I don't think this is going to be smart to go into any sort of a long even if we have a signal. So yeah, we're just going to be trading short today. And of course, like, just because I call this, you know, kind of setup, it does not mean that by the time 10 AM, you know, that kind of news window rolls around, we are 100% going to have a valid trade. If there there isn't, I'm going to post it on X. If there is a valid trade, I'm going to post it on X. So just feel free to follow me there. But otherwise, with that out of the way though, I'm going to catch you guys in the next one. Ciao ciao!