BIG dump incoming for bitcoin today? (catch this trade!)

What's good guys, welcome back to another video. In this one, I'm going to get into the exact trade that I'm going to be looking at for Bitcoin for today. Granted, today is going to be the first news day that we're going to see this entire week, and you know what that means— the probability that we're going to end up with an A+ trade today is going to be higher compared to a regular day. So I'm going to break this all down. Before we get into it though, if you're new here, my name is Xuan. I've been publicly documenting the success rate of all of these YouTube trade calls that I've been putting out daily on this YouTube channel for the last year and a half, and so far I'm at about a 75% win rate. So hopefully that gives you a reason to listen to me because I tend to be right just a Tiny bit more often compared to when I'm wrong. Also, by the way, before we get into this, I've made a highlights channel recently where I'm taking a lot of the clips from my coaching calls, my one-on-one calls, and even the live trading calls that I've been doing with my students. There are some segments there where I dive really deep into a very specific topic, and they're not necessarily good enough to post onto YouTube or like the main channel. But that's why I made the second channel. Feel free to check it out somewhere. You'll be able to find it. But otherwise, let's get into the video. Now speaking about the win rate yesterday, we ended up with a loss, and like. Yeah, yesterday was just a bit of a weird one because if you take a look at the overall kind of price action leading up to the point at which we lost— and by the way, if you feel like this chart is super messy right now, I'm going to delete everything once we discuss yesterday's trade. Heading into the New York session yesterday, I was telling you guys like, yeah, you know, if you come back into either one of these 2 levels right here and if you show some sort of willingness to go to the upside, which there was willingness to go to the upside between the hours of 7:00 AM to 10:00 AM, that we would just go for a long and targeting for 2R or potentially even more. Now, prior to 9:30 AM yesterday, everything was going quite well, as you can see on the 1-hour chart right here. And then the 9:30 AM candle dropped, and yeah, just all hell broke loose. It just completely went towards the downside. And like, yeah, I had a couple of trades going, and both of them end up getting stopped out. So it is what it is. And so in this kind of situation, right, it's very easy to just blame, like, oh yeah, you know, I'm wrong. Which, by the way, I admit it, like, I was wrong for sure. Like, even with a 75% win rate, I do still lose trades, believe it or not. Now, the key thing that I want you guys to take away from this is that Like, if you guys got pissed off by the fact that you ended up losing that trade, even though everything seemed to be going in your favor before that, like, trust me, it's not the first time that it's going to happen, and it's not the last time it's going to happen. So the lesson that I want you to take away from this is before you get pissed off at the result, right, because the result is the only thing that's kind of outside of our control, right? We can do everything right, but we cannot guarantee that we're going to get, you know, that we're going to make money, right, to get a positive outcome. And what we can control though is our decision-making in the moment before Before we dive into the trade. And that is the part that you actually want to examine, not the result, but the process. So just to give you an example of what I mean by this, prior to getting the loss yesterday, right, let's look at the actual process. We basically planned out the trade in a way where, okay, we need condition ABC to get met, and then once it gets met, we are going to do step 1, 2, 3. In terms of the trade yesterday, all of this was present where, you know, we waited for the exact conditions to be met, and then once they are, we executed according to our plan, right? So basically, we planned the trade and then we traded the plan. So in terms of the actual process, I couldn't have done better. If anything, like, everything was perfect and I just did everything that I was supposed to. And so in this sense, regardless of whether the trade wins or loses, I've already won. And this is not some woo-woo method of like saying, oh yeah, just think positive. But like genuinely, your success or failure as a trader is purely predicated on how well you can focus on your process over the long term. So instead of focusing, okay, I want to aim for an 80% win rate, because that's just not realistic. You can't aim for a certain number. Even if you aim for it, like, what actions are you going to take to get you to that? That's right, you gotta Focus on the process. If you can consistently show up and execute your rules every single day for a long period of time, you're basically guaranteed to make more money than you lose. But notice how the only thing that's within your control is your actions, right? It's the inputs. So yesterday, I don't think there was anything wrong with the overall trade call. Like yeah, sure, maybe I could have foresaw things, you know, to actually dump based on the daily bias, which was bearish yesterday. But we had a very clear plan, and we had a sound plan, and I gave my argument as to why that plan was going to work. And we took a bet, and we failed. And that's at the end of the day, that's the end of the story. So yeah, Tony. Anyone that ended up taking the trade yesterday, I know it was a bit unfortunate that it ended up being a loss, but honestly, as far as losses come, that was a good loss because it's not like we broke any of our rules. And like, yeah, we planned to trade and we traded the plan. So coming back into today though is when it becomes a little bit interesting because in terms of the weekly bias, if you guys remember, we were looking for a bullish weekly bias for some sort of a move towards $83,000 now, and that hasn't changed. The only problem is that when we go down into the daily chart, we are looking at a bearish daily bias over here. And it seems that, you know, we might be getting 4 days straight of dumps, right? And this is going to be entirely dependent on what's— what I see later on the 1-hourly chart. But just based on what I'm seeing right now, we've got— we're potentially looking at 4 days straight days of dump and potentially a Friday reversal. Now I know this is contrasting to what I've mentioned at the start of the week where the prediction was to Monday, Tuesday come into this order block right here, and then Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, right? Like that was a prediction, but I was also saying I'm ready at any given moment to be flexible and to adapt to the changing market conditions, because what I admitted in the last couple of days was that this is just my idea. Now, if it happens, great, but if it doesn't, I'm ready to adapt. And at the moment, this seems like— well, it seems like the time has come for us to adapt. So the thing that really seals the deal for me and why we're going to be looking for a short heading into today— and obviously before we look for any shorts, I'm going to mark this out as a daily liquidity level that we can potentially target right here at $76,000— but I think that really seals the deal for Me is the fact that over here we have gotten a bearish CSD, right? And a very convincing bearish CSD at that. Just like how yesterday when we got the bullish CSD over here, like that was the undeniable bullish CSD, or you can even mark it out over here. That was the point at which I was like, yeah, it's looking great. I'm super interested into a long there. Now, did we ultimately end up getting just faked out where that was the sweep of the range highs and then we eventually came down? Yes, but we also had a bearish daily balance yesterday technically. So The odds are that we're going to be looking for some sort of a breakdown today, and the signal that's going to make this possible is if we get a candle close, right, a candle close beneath this level right here at $77,900. And when we get a candle close below here, this is going to validate this as a potential bearish order block, right? And once you get the bearish order block, you're going to look for a retracement into the bearish order block, and you're going to look for a move towards the downside. Now, as for the exact time that you're going to expect this move to happen, Today we have news at 8:30 AM, which means that chances are the best trading times for the day— for today is going to be from 7:30 AM all the way down to 9:30 AM. So ideally you want to look for this order block to get confirmed prior to 7:30, ideally a retracement sometime during that news window, and for some sort of a breakdown to all happen within that news window. Now the reason I'm talking about time so much is that you got to realize there are 2 axes on your chart. You have a Y-axis and you have an X-axis, right? A lot of people just focus on price action. which is the y-axis. But very little people actually consider that depending on the time that certain things in— that certain behaviors of price action happens, it greatly affects the probability of whether or not that trade's going to play out. So if we can pair timing plus price plus the fact that we have news today, then that's the ultimate recipe for an A+ trade setup. Now, at the moment on the 1-hourly chart, you can also see that potentially you've got a bullish CSD over here. Where, you know, you could potentially, right, head to a certain direction. Now, the reason why I'm ignoring this is because the overall daily bias so far is bearish, and the overall order flow on the 1-hourly chart is also bearish. And so for that reason, we're going to ignore this. And so even if price decides to pump later on today, like, that's not going to be a signal that we're going to try to catch, right? Remember that just because price is moving doesn't mean you need to do something about it. You can always just watch price move. At the end of the day, the only criteria as to whether you decide to take a trade or not is whether the conditions of your system are met. In this case, in my system, I trade purely with a very heavy emphasis on timeframe alignment, which means that if I'm going to jump into a trade, for example, today I'm looking for a short. Why am I looking for a short? Because the daily chart is pointing down, right? We have a bearish daily bias. Towards the 1-hourly chart, we have a bearish hourly order flow. 1-hourly chart is also pointing towards the downside. And so now, as long as the 5-minute chart is also pointing towards the downside, This is time frame alignment, where all three time frames are aligned and pointing in the same direction. Now, the moment I get time frame misalignment in a sense where all right, the daily chart is probably going to point towards the downside, the hourly is pointing towards the downside, but yeah, later five minute chart it's going to go towards the bullish direction. That's not a trade I'm going to take because it lacks time frame alignment, right? That's a very key rule in my system, and as much as possible, I know that success in trading is predicated on how well I am able to follow the rules of my system consistently for a long period of time. And so if that is the focus, then we're not going to break any rules if price. Ends up pumping here, then guess what? We can jump in tomorrow and catch a very high probability move. But for now, the odds are stacked in favor that it is going to go towards the downside. So that's the direction that I'm going to be trading in for today. Now remember, this trade idea does not get validated if we do not get this bearish CSD. Now you may argue that technically speaking, this is also a bearish CSD level that we can look at. Yes, that is true. And both of these, to be honest, are both valid as long as you get this Like that certain behavior price that I was discussing. As long as you're getting it happening around that news window, you're going to be all good. Now, as usual, I'm going to be posting any of my trade setups on Twitter, and it's not going to be gated behind some signals groups or whatever. So if I jump into a trade, you guys are going to be able to see it along with my exact entry and stop loss and target, of course. And if you have watched my videos for a while and you know for a fact that this system works and this system works consistently, and I have a unique way of thinking about the market, or as far as maintaining discipline goes, and if you would like my help to implement this style of trading, into your own trading, then I want you to click the first link in the description box below. This is not going to be a program where I just slap on a course and let you, you know, just do your own thing. I'm going to be heavily involved with you. We're going to work together one-on-one, not only with you, not only with myself, but with my team. And if you've been trading for a while and you haven't gotten results, chances are you've never had anyone who's already achieved the thing that you're trying to achieve tell you exactly where you're going wrong and what the solution is. So if you're tired of wasting more time putting in effort into trading but not getting anything out of it, The first link in the description box below. But to the rest of you, I'll see you on Twitter later, or I'll see you tomorrow in the video. Ciao ciao! Safe trading.