BIG dump incoming for Bitcoin today (don't miss this trade)

What's good guys, welcome back to another video. Lots to break down today. There is an argument to be made that Bitcoin is going to, you know, continue the breakout and it's going to continue going higher, but there are a couple of warning signs that I really want to point out in this video. And before we get into it, if you're new here, welcome, my name is Xuan. I've been publicly documenting the success rate of all of these trade calls that I make right here on YouTube for the last 2 years, and overall I have about a 75% win rate. All that means is that I tend to be right a little bit more often compared to when I'm wrong, so hopefully that gives you a reason to listen to me. But with that out of the way, let's get into it. I'm gonna start things off with the daily chart now. Honestly, there is not much more that needs to be said on the higher time frame that hasn't already been said over the last three weeks. Sorry, the last three days, which is basically the fact that over the last three days, one, two, three, we have been retesting this line right here. Now, what is the significance of this line? You may ask. Well, that is the weekly level, this key weekly high right here that we have recently traded above, and currently we're coming back to retest it. Now, this retest is going a little bit longer than I would have initially expected, but still, we're currently just retesting that high, and the market is currently very uncertain as to what it wants to do. At around this level, which makes our job as traders really difficult because let's just put it this way, the system that I'm trading right here on this channel, it absolutely thrives when the market is in a trending condition, when things are moving cleanly and when things are moving in general. But it heavily struggles when the market is in a state where it's very indecisive and it's very clearly just in some sort of a range where yesterday you swept out the range high and currently you've returned all the way back to the range low. And right now it's looking like you're potentially going to sweep out the range low again. And in terms of the last couple of candles, you can see that this isn't really much of a convincing candle body. And if anything, if you guys know about candle patterns, then this might look like a doji candle, which again shows it's a sign for indecision from the markets. Now, before you start jumping into conclusions and saying that, oh yeah, just because the system has been struggling over the last couple of weeks because of the market being indecisive, I want you to realize one thing. There is no system under the sun that is going to be top tier in both trending conditions and ranging conditions. The fact that we have optimized the system to perform extremely well during trends means that it's naturally going to struggle when the market is ranging. Now, On the flip side of the equation, you're going to have range trading systems that are going to struggle to make money whenever the market is trending. So there is no system that's going to be like one size fits all, every single market condition you're going to be thriving. You need to understand that trading has a lot of ebbs and flows, and that includes whatever system that you end up using. So this system being slow throughout the month of September is not a bug. It's a feature of the system. It is a natural because I've optimized it to perform extremely well during new trends and less so during ranges. But with that out of the way though, this is one of the worst ranges that I've kind of seen over the last few weeks. And the last few weeks have already been pretty terrible, but like it's been pretty rare for me to just straight up come on to the camera and tell you, like for example, in yesterday's video I was like, yeah, just don't trade. And hopefully we're going to get some better times coming, but today is going to look just as uncertain and if not more uncertain compared to yesterday. Now, before I jump into the trade for today though, there is a very valuable lesson/lessons that I would like to share just from breaking down the trade from yesterday, because I was actually live trading this yesterday with everyone inside the program and One of the interesting questions that was asked, you know, by the time we hopped onto the chart, price actually ended up, you know, kind of exploding straight towards the range high and then reversing, right? And don't get me wrong, I did not end up taking a trade on Bitcoin yesterday because we were at the range highs, and I just had a feeling from experience that this was just going to reverse. And so I just let everyone know, like, yeah, we're not going to be trading Bitcoin because there's a very decent chance that things are going to reverse. But just to break it down, that question that was asked yesterday, it was basically like, okay, Because by the time we actually hopped on already, price has already pumped. So if I were to put myself in my shoes where it was 8:20 AM again before the news actually dropped, would I have traded this any differently? Or like, how would I have approached the markets? Well, that was a really great question because this concept right here is something known as game tape reading. Basically, you go back onto the charts and you go through the price action and you put yourself in those shoes and you would trade it, right? What decisions would you have made there? Like, before you scoff at this, this is a really powerful thing to do in general as a trader. Especially for those of you who are still in your practice phase and you're not necessarily live trading yet, so you don't really have a lot of trades that you can use to journal. Well, this is a great solution to that because what you got to understand is that so much of trading is pattern recognition. Like, there are only a set amount of ways that price action will tend to play out. And if you have been doing this for a decent period of time, like I've been doing this for 6 years, I've seen it happen. Like, every single scenario out there, I've seen it happen before. And obviously, this pattern recognition helps a lot in You know, just maintaining a decently high win rate or just helping me make more money than I lose over the course of the long run. And just to talk about this pattern recognition thing, just to give you an example, like you can either have, you know, a liquidity sweep, you sweep the range high and you go back to the range low, or you're going to have a breakout retest and then continuation, right? There's only really 2 ways that this can happen. Now, in terms of your session profiles, you're going to have accumulation, manipulation, followed by distribution. And sometimes you're going to have accumulation, breakout, and continuation, just like what we saw On the day before, right? Accumulation, breakout, continuation. ABC or AMD. Examples like this is like, there is a finite amount of scenarios that can happen. Like, there's a finite amount of ways that price action is going to play out. Like, you can kind of put them into templates, but you're not going to know this unless you've put in the reps. Now, usually what I would recommend for this is to backtest extensively so that you can observe for yourself how these patterns tend to play out, how they set up, the success rate of these patterns, how you would, you know, trade these patterns. But If you're not backtesting and if you're not live trading yet, a great way to just kind of get some reps into pattern recognition is just doing game tape reading. Basically going through the chart and just seeing like, okay, London has been a pretty aggressive move today. Is there anything that I could have done there to potentially take advantage of this move? Well, let's take a look. Well, I'm not going to take a look right now, but like just in terms of yesterday, just going to do a quick bit of game tape reading, which is essentially that prior to 8:30 yesterday, we did not end up getting a CSD. If you take a look here, CSD basically got confirmed On the 8:30 AM candle, which already closed all the way up here. So just because there was movement yesterday did not necessarily mean that I had an entry to actually get into. And obviously price ran straight to the target within the span of like 20 minutes. By that point, there's no like real order blocks, there's no real CSDs, there's no real way for me to have gotten into a trade unless I was positioned into the trade prior. Like let's say I was getting into the trade at let's say 7:30 or something. Where we got like an initial CSD, I could put my stop loss here and I could place my target here. This would have been an absolutely phenomenal trade, by the way. But like the truth is, if I were to be hopping on at 8:20 AM, I would not have gotten an entry. And a couple of lessons that I want to share here, first of which is that just because price action is moving doesn't mean you have to do anything about it. Like the sooner you can get comfortable with watching price do things without feeling the need to get involved is going to be the best solution for you to just stop formula trading. And the second of all is that by the time, you know, we actually got an entry, like during the live trading call yesterday, this was one of the entries that I was considering, which is when it comes to, like, if any of you have watched my channel before, you know that I'm a big proponent of something known as momentum trading, where essentially you practice the art of buying high and selling higher instead of trying to predict, you know, when the moves are going to begin or like predict the absolute bottom of the markets. You wait for the trend to confirm and then you just jump in on a momentum trade, right, where you hop onto the train at some point, Once the train has already left and is clearly heading for some sort of destination, you hop on at some point and you get off at some point. This is the idea of momentum trading. Contrary to popular belief, this is a lot more profitable than you would otherwise think. Like some of the absolute most profitable people that I've had the pleasure of meeting, and also some of the most profitable students I have actually, like the 7-figure traders out there, they are huge proponents of momentum trading. Like they oftentimes find it harder to kind of get in on trades early, but they find it a lot easier once you have clear signs of confirmation and then you just jump in at that point. And no, you are rarely too late. Except for yesterday's case, because yesterday we took out that liquidity point over there, which means that, okay, the target that we had for the day has already been taken out. Just because there is an order block over here does not mean that I should just kind of jump into it. A second thing that kind of gave me a warning sign is the volatility. If you take a look at yesterday, like the low of the day was like $83,000 basically, and the high of the day was at $85,600. This is a range of about $2,500. Now here's a quick hack. If you go onto the daily chart and you pull up this indicator called, I believe this is ATR, yeah, Average True Range. If you pull up this indicator, it will tell you exactly the average amount of volatility in every daily candle on average throughout the last 14 days. And you can see the average amount of volatility that we can expect is around $2,500 to about $2,200. So given the fact that yesterday when I was looking at that momentum trade right there, we already had $2,500 worth of movement throughout the entire day, means that the volatility probably done, right? The objective has been achieved. And so it's unlikely for the price to continue going on. Now unlikely doesn't mean impossible, but when it comes to trading, so much of trading success boils down to your ability to take the higher probability outcome over the lower probability outcome and repeat this over time. Given that this had a pretty low probability of continuing to go towards the upside, I just made a decision to, all right, let's just chill for a bit and let's see how the markets develop. And yeah, case in point, end up going for a full reversal. So kept myself out of a bad trade. And again, it's good to just do these kind of like I don't want to call them postmortems, but like just see the game tape. And over time, you're going to develop this kind of sixth sense for what price is going to do, and it's going to help you out a lot in your trading. But the sixth sense honestly just boils down to pattern recognition. There are only a set amount of ways that things are going to play out. Like, I'm going to use basketball as an example because I remember using this exact analogy yesterday when I was explaining this to the students. In basketball, so many people think that it's just all about practicing your skills, right? Shooting, driving, dribbling, whatever. But So much of basketball is like decision-making, right? If you get a double team, you immediately start looking for an open teammate depending on whether or not your defender goes above the screen or if they go under the screen, then you make different decisions based on that. Or for example, super simple one, like if your defender has his hands down and you're a good shooter, then hand down, man down, right? You take the shot. If your defender is overplaying with one foot in front of the other, then you attack that top foot. There are just a set amount of ways that every basketball possession can end up with, despite how random it might look to, you know, a third party. Same goes for trading. There are only a set amount of ways that price action can play out. And the sooner you start studying these patterns and having them become almost like second nature, or not even second nature, just— you ever notice that you have some gut feelings every now and then that if you take advantage of them, it plays out in your favor? Well, that's pattern recognition at play. The sooner you can start doing this game tape reading, make it an active part of your routine, especially to those of you that have not yet started live trading or you're not that keen on backtesting. Guess what? This helps immensely. And I've taken the last 10 minutes to talk about this for this very reason. There's one thing you take away from this video, do a bit of game tape reading, like watch Just let the price do its thing. You don't have to actively trade it, but in your mind, how would you approach it? The more you make these decisions and the more you kind of run through these scenarios, the more you're going to start building the confidence to be able to eventually start taking trades of your own. But with that out of the way, let's get into the trade for today. Now immediately, I'm going to point out the fact that currently we're dealing with a bearish daily bias. Secondly, we have swept out the range high. Now this, from yesterday, this was the target that I had in mind, and the range high has already been swept out. Secondly, we have very clearly gotten a bearish CISD on a 1-hourly chart, which means the order flow is already bearish. Fourth, we have a bunch of relatively equal lows over here that we are very likely to take out for today. And fifth, right now you are— you just confirmed actually, like, over the last, what, 6 minutes with this hourly close right here, this is now a bearish order block, which means as you retrace back into this hourly order block, you can start looking for a trade continuation towards the downside targeting $82,500. And if we can kind of narrow this down, we can see that London was potentially manipulation. And right now we're looking for New York to kind of retrace. And continue towards the downside. Now, the way that we would potentially execute this is 2 ways, right? First of which is that in terms of the 1-hourly here, we have— just because this is the order block that we're dealing with doesn't mean that we just kind of place a limit here and place our stop loss and just, you know, go for the target, because that's not really going to give you a 2R. Like, just to give you an example, place my stop loss above here. You can take a look here. This is a negative, right? 0.94 risk-to-reward ratio, which is not the type of trade that we want to be taking. So in this case, We would actually try to refine our entry. Well, guess what? By the time this next candle closes, chances are you're going to leave behind some sort of a fair value gap, right? From here to wherever. Currently, the fair value gap is here, but again, I don't know where this candle is going to close. But chances are you're going to leave behind a fair value gap. Chances are, in terms of the 5-minute as well, you're going to leave behind a weak high. For example, this right here is a weak high. Now, what is a weak high? It's a high that does not sweep prior liquidity. What's an example of a strong high? Well, a strong high is something like this, where This high right here happens after sweeping out this previous high, right? It sweeps out liquidity before forming this high. So this makes this a strong high, which means it's unlikely to get tapped, especially if you can line this up with your daily bias. So the setup for today is going to be like you're going to leave behind a fair value gap. You're going to leave behind a weak high. You're going to sweep out the weak high sometime between 7 a.m. to 10 a.m. New York, and then you're going to see a breakdown in terms of the five minute. You're going to get a five minute CSD, and then you're going to take a trade entry here, stop here above the high. Right? This will become the strong high. Place your stop above the high and off you go. That is scenario number one. Scenario number two is that by the time you watch this video, who knows? Price could have already, you know, just continued to make bearish order flow, or heck, this target could already been hit. In that case, you would just momentum trade. For example, when price closes below this level right here, this is going to become a new order block. And at this point, you can just wait for a retrace into this order block. Place your stop above. Granted, this is a weak high, so I wouldn't do this. And also, it's currently four a.m. Now granted, this is a weak high, so I wouldn't necessarily look for this as the ideal trade, but this is an example of how a momentum trade would look like, and you would just target for 2R. Now assuming that target already gets hit, it doesn't mean that price will just kind of stop from that point onwards. It's important to just take a look at daily volatility, right? The high of the day currently over here is at $84,400. So if we minus like around $2,200, we can reasonably expect price to go all the way to $82,000 In the event that you know we have a little bit more volatility, and let me just go down to lower time frames to see if we pretend yeah. In fact, we do right. This is like the first kind of hourly order block that exists in between this entire void here. If you take a look at this void, if what I just said sounds like mumbo jumbo, basically like after price aggressively pumped from this point onwards, you left behind a bunch of imbalance, right? Basically, there is no volume between this area. So by the time price actually breaks below this level, it's going to be a pretty sharp drop all the way down to the next level of volume, which is at 81,800. So in the event that you watch this video and price has already kind of moved aggressively. Feel free to just take momentum trades as long as we haven't touched like $82,000, like we're going to be all good. But I'm keeping my hopes up that we will get a retrace followed by continuation later so that, you know, by the time you guys watch this video, you're going to have a trade to take advantage of. But also on another note, if you've been trading for a while and you have been putting in time into trading, but you're not really seeing the results that you would like to see from it, chances are you have an execution problem. And watching more YouTube videos and learning more technical concepts is not going to fix it because you cannot fix execution problems with more What you need instead is a coach to work with you directly, one-on-one, to point out exactly where you're going wrong, to help you install a profitable system, and then to ultimately just keep you accountable through every step of the way, one-on-one. And I mean like one-on-one. If that sounds like an interesting option to you, that is the only thing that we offer. We do not just give you a course and say, hey, go figure it out. We're going to be working with you one-on-one. If you'd like our help to do that and to just finally get consistent in trading, I want you to book a call using the link down below. 55% of all of the students who have ever come through our door has gotten funded for at least $100,000. That is something that no other trading education program out there can claim because they simply do not track this because they know their program sucks and most people don't get results. But ours works. So yeah, book a call. Otherwise, I'm going to direct you to any one of these videos right here in case you don't understand order blocks and CSD and liquidity. This video is going to really help you. And over here, this video is the 6 biggest lessons that I've learned over the last 6 years that I've been trading. Enjoy.