big dump incoming for bitcoin today? (position yourself HERE)

What's good guys, welcome back to another video. Later at 2 PM today, we're going to have a decision on interest rates by the Fed, and this is coming alongside yesterday where the Clarity Act, you know, failed to pass, which, you know, I'll explain what that means later. Plus the fact that at the moment the 10-year bond yield for the US government is at 5%, which is an insane kind of number. All I mean to say when I tell you this is that a big move is probably going to happen for Bitcoin today. Now, as for what that big move is going to do, whether it's going to absolutely crash the price of Bitcoin or if it's going to send this to, you You know, back to a bull market. It's not going to be that crazy. But either way, I'm going to be breaking down the exact move that I will be looking at for Bitcoin today and the exact move that you should go ahead and prioritize as well if your goal is to make money. Now, before I get into it, if you're new here, welcome. My name is Xuan. I've been publicly documenting the success rate of these Bitcoin trade calls that I've been making for the past year and a half. Like, I make these daily videos every day, and currently I'm at about a 75% win rate on the trades that I've actually called and taken. So hopefully that gives you a bit of a reason to listen to me because I tend to be right just a tiny bit more to when I'm wrong. And also, there is a second channel that we've made recently where I'm taking like some very high-value segments from the coaching calls or the live trading calls or the one-on-one calls that I do with my clients. And there are some genuinely valuable, you know, pieces of alpha within these calls that I make. Unfortunately, they're not like— it's not going to do well on YouTube if I just kind of post it on this channel, you know. So we've gone ahead and clipped out the valuable segments, posting it to the second channel. So if you want to dive deeper into some more tactical or just deep trading-related stuff, check out the second channel. You're going to be finding it somewhere down in the description box below, or just right here where you'll be able to find it. But with that out of the way though, let's properly get into the video. Now again, kicking things off on the weekly chart, we are looking at an overall weekly bearish bias. Now the other thing that kind of is interesting to point out is the fact that there is basically zero resistance between here to here. So in the event that today ends up being a catastrophic dump for Bitcoin, like, there's not going to be much holding it back. Now In the event that today ends up being bullish, well, this is the target that we can go for, which is $83,000. Now, the moment we go down into the daily chart though is when the price action seems to point towards a certain direction a little bit more, which is towards the bearish direction. And in this case, the reason why I'm saying this is twofold. First of all, we have a bearish candle close from yesterday. And by the way, that was a really great call where we completely ignored the daily bias. Like, purely based off the daily bias, right, we were supposed to look for longs yesterday, but I was just straight up like, yeah, no, I don't really see that happening because the 1-hourly chart was just giving like completely different signals. So I'm really glad that we ended up, you know, making the call to, you know, basically short. And that ended up going well. Now me, unfortunately, I did not manage to take a trade, didn't manage to call a trade either on Twitter as it was happening. So I'm not going to count yesterday. Like it was a correct analysis at the end of the day. And I know some of you did make money out of it, but like by strict measurements of like my public documentation, that's not counted as a trade because I didn't get into it. And neither did I share the entry and the stop loss and the TP before I got into it. But I really hope that some of you managed to watch the video from yesterday and make money out of it. If you did, just drop it in the comment section down below. Like, really helps to know that these videos are making a positive impact in some people's lives or in some people's trading. But either way, today we're dealing with a lot more kind of like clear market conditions in a way that, okay, the overall weekly bias is pointing towards the downside. Yesterday we got a very convincing bearish candle close. So today we're most definitely looking for shorts. Thirdly, in terms of the daily chart right here, you can see that the first CSD actually happened here, right? This was the first major CSD that kind of pointed out to me that, okay, yep. Like it's not that bullish. There are two reasons why I'm saying this. Over here is the first daily bearish CSD. Now once this happened, the market is currently looking a lot less bullish because well the order flow has clearly shifted towards a bearish direction. Now at the start of this week, I was holding out hope that we could potentially just be dumping in order to sweep out this liquidity right here. This is a previous low that was left behind. I was thinking okay once this low got swept out, this could set a precedent or set up the conditions for price to actually. Go towards the upside because currently we're trading within a range. This is a range high and this is the range low. Once you swept out the range highs, you made a beeline straight towards the range lows. Usually once you sweep out the range lows, considering the fact that if you take a look at the daily or the weekly chart right here, we have very clear targets in these relatively equal highs right here. My assumption was that price was going to head towards the upside and that could still happen like sometime Thursday or Friday. It's just that for today, all of the signals are definitely pointing towards the downside. And eventually may return back to this. And when I see the signals where the market is about to pump again, I'll definitely be making another video. So feel free to subscribe and, you know, just stay tuned. But yeah, for today, not only do we have a bearish daily candle close, but we also have a second CSD. This is another CSD that got confirmed yesterday. So right now we're dealing with one consecutive, two consecutive CSDs, which just basically just shows you, yeah, okay, the market is incredibly bearish right now. So this just gives us a lot more certainty heading into the day that we're going to be looking for shorts. Now obviously it would be an absolute perfect kind of like scenario if we were to be able to retrace back into this order block right here, which I'm just going to draw out with a blue box so that we don't lose track of this. If we were able to retrace back into here before dropping, that would be the ideal scenario. Is that going to happen? I have no idea, and honestly, I'm not counting on it either, because the moment we come down into the 1-hourly time frame, you can see that, okay, over here we're coming— already coming back into a bearish order block on the 1-hourly chart, which means that from this point onwards, if the market were to drop, that's actually a positive signal that validates that, okay, yeah, today is definitely a good day where we look for shorts, because— or when price is in bearish order flow, you want to look for previous bearish order blocks to get respected and also for them to act as high probability resistance zones where you can, you know, just basically jump into a trade at. So technically speaking, right now, right, technically speaking, would already be valid for some sort of a short trade. Now, is that what I'm going to recommend? Absolutely not, for 2 reasons. First of all is that if you take a look at the 5-minute chart right now, this is the Asia high. Now, usually on a short day, or where a day where we're looking for shorts, ideally you want to see the Asia high actually get swept. Now, that oftentimes happens in London, but seeing how London is playing out so far, chances are we're going to get that manipulation during New York instead. Now, what is this manipulation that I speak of? Basically, the Asia session tends to be accumulation. Usually London tends to be the session of manipulation where you sweep above the Asia high and trick everyone into thinking that the market is actually going up. But the fact that we have a bearish daily bias, the fact that we have a bearish weekly bias, the fact that we have bearish kind of overall order flow on the higher timeframe means that this is a prime opportunity for us to just get into the market at a very good price, right? To sell To these people that don't know better. Otherwise, we sell to them. Then the market's going to drop, and that's where we kind of cash in and take some profit. Now, if you think that this sounds woo woo or just kind of made up, like this is the strategy that we've been using for the last two years. I felt like making these daily videos and just you know making money at a very high probability kind of rate, and just making like a lot of profit at a very high rate. And so immediately, I'm not looking to get into a trade unless the Asia high is swept out. And given the fact that London actually tried to make a move to go towards the Asia high, but then just stopped short, tells me that it's just building up a lot of liquidity for a liquidity sweep. later on before the market actually dumps. Now, this scenario right here can be invalidated though if we get a convincing move on the 1-hourly chart. What I'm referring to here, if price were to close or give a candle close on the 1-hourly chart beneath $75,400, this basically means that, okay, order flow is now continuing to be bearish and price basically respected this bearish order block that I drew just now on the 1-hourly chart, right? It respected the order block and currently is breaking lower. And once it breaks lower and you get that 1-hourly candle close is when you're going to get this new bearish order block that gets confirmed. Then your play in this case would be to just wait for that Breakdown, right? Retrace back into the order block, and then you're going to get in on a continuation trade, right? You're going to get in at some point. You're going to take profit at 2R or some liquidity points slightly below. Now, the thing that makes this liquidity point slightly below argument kind of weaker as well is the fact that if you take a look at the daily chart, or if you take a look at any higher timeframe chart, price moved so aggressively on this pump right here that there is no real liquidity point that we can take advantage of. For today, the play might actually just be to take profit at 2R or potentially 3R. Like, yeah, even on the 4-hourly chart, there's absolutely no swing lows to speak of. And in terms of the 1-hourly chart, like, do we have anything to work with? Yeah, maybe. But it's kind of arbitrary if we have to like kind of dive all the way down to the 1-hourly chart in order to find these targets. But you get the idea, right? Today is going to be one of those days where we're anticipating a drop. We have no idea where the price is going to drop to. We know that we have interest rate decisions coming later on, so chances are it's going to be a decently big move. We also have no kind of like clear level of liquidity that we can just set a TP. So if you do get into this trade, like literally if your entry is here, your stop loss is here, right? Just target for 2R. Basically, this is your entry to your stop loss, right? This is how much you're risking. Now your reward is simply 2 units of risk. That is 2R. Now you can also go for 3R if the market conditions are absolutely insane, then yeah, go for that. But otherwise, the playbook today is going to be pretty straightforward where we're going to look for either a sweep at the Asia highs sometime during the New York morning before a breakdown where you get a move towards the downside, or this will get invalidated, right? We stop looking for the sweep above the highs if we just get a convincing move that validates this as the new order block. And so we execute from this order block instead. Now the reason why I'm giving you 2 high probability scenarios Is, well, I cannot predict the markets. All I can do, and what I tend to do on these daily videos, is I give you a couple of very high probability scenarios and the conditions that are required for these scenarios to actually be validated. And once the scenarios are validated, you have the exact step-by-step execution where this is the play. Secondly, this is the play. There you get a 5-minute CSD and down you go. Anyone that claims to be able to predict the— now just going back down to the 5-minute. Now just to go back down to the 5-minute timeframe. Uh, the Asia high right here is only like one point of liquidity that we can refer to. The other one is going to be right here, right? You can see that there are a bunch of relatively low highs from back here. It's right above the Asia high. Secondly, we have that 1-hourly order block, as we've already mentioned beforehand. So I would not be surprised if the manipulation move actually ends up going all the way up to this 1-hourly order block, starting at $76,500-ish. And once you fill in the 1-hourly order block, you get a breakdown on the 5-minute chart. That would honestly be like super ideal. Now either one could happen though, so I'm not going to make predictions here. But either one is going to be valid. If I had to give you a tip for today, is the fact that interest rate decisions today are not going to come until like basically 2 PM New York time. Now usually when you get days where you have late news, basically like in afternoon kind of pieces of news dropping, the mornings can tend to go a little bit slower, especially the London session as well, where it's just incredibly choppy as you're already seeing right now. This is very normal because everyone in the market is anticipating a big move coming at 2 PM. So prior to that, these big players and these market makers or institutions or whatever, they're just going to be engineering liquidity for that big moment essentially. They're going to keep the price in a tight range, and eventually people, especially retail traders who don't know better, they're going to start positioning themselves, right? Getting into positions prematurely. And of course, when you get into a position, let's say you get into a short here, you're going to place your stop loss above the highs because that's what you're supposed to do as a trader. When you get enough people doing this, you're going to have a lot of stop loss orders that can get triggered at this point right here. And the institutions notice, right? They have access to stop loss data and how much money is there to be made if price actually gets to a certain point in price. The chart. And once you get closer and closer to that key timing window, which for today is late 2 PM news, then you're going to— what you're often going to see is that price is going to sweep out the liquidity before making that aggressive move towards the downside. So if you get in too early here, you're going to be in a situation where you read the overall direction properly and you actually got the overall direction right, but you're going to lose money because of it, because you got into a position too early. So the better thing to do today is 2 things. On a day with late news such as today, the ideal trading time Of course, going to be the hour before news to the hour after news. So seeing how the interest rate decision is going to get dropped at 2 PM today, ideal time for you to start hunting for trades is going to be at 1 PM all the way up to even 3 PM. Now that would be the ideal time. Now am I going to trade that? Absolutely not. I live in Asia, which means that that time is going to be like 2 to 3 AM my time. Like, I'm not staying awake for that. So what I will try to do instead is to try to get a move during the New York morning session. Now this is going to be a bit of like hidden or like slightly more advanced alpha. Basically, when you get a late news day such as today, if London ends up also just accumulating just like Asia, usually we would look for Asia to be accumulation, London to be manipulation, and New York to distribute towards the direction of the daily bias, right? That's just the rough playbook that we look for every single day. Now, on a day with late news, if London ends up being accumulation as well, manipulation actually gets shifted to the New York morning, which means that if you see some sort of a sweep followed by a breakdown during the New York morning session, which is I would say for today between 8 AM to 10 AM, then that's the move that you want to take advantage of, right? That manipulation leg. So it's still going to be beneficial for you guys to just save your bullets and fire them during the New York session instead. And with the New York morning session, I wouldn't count on that move lasting all the way till the New York afternoon. What you ideally want to do with manipulation moves is that you take profit at 2R or just some sort of key level. In this case here, in the event that we do not already break to like this point right here by the time you watch this video, then you could reasonably take your profit either here, here, or even the low left behind from yesterday, which is at $75,000 or $74,900 to be exact. So basically New York manipulation breakdown. Take your profit at these levels. Let the market chill out for a bit and continue to range about for a bit. Engineer some liquidity prior to the news. Once news drops, sweep up the liquidity, sweep up the liquidity, and whatever happens next, honestly, I have no idea. But one thing's for sure is that Clarity Act yesterday failing is not necessarily going to be absolutely detrimental for Bitcoin. Now, as for where that direction is going to go, I have no idea, and I'm not going to try to predict it either. But a couple of things that we can understand just based on like macro I'm gonna talk about the bond yields first. Currently, the 10-year bond yields are at 5%, and that's really high. Now, what that means for crypto, or what that means for the market in general, is that when bond yields are that high, right, investors, when they're looking at, okay, do I put my money into stocks or do I have to, you know, allocate some of my portfolio into high-risk assets like Bitcoin or crypto? They don't really have to do that because they could just park their money with the US government because they're gonna be paying them 5% yields. And that's an amazing return to get for very little risk. After all, the only risk that they have of not getting their money back or like losing their money is like if the US government literally like falls, goes into anarchy. And if that happens, like them getting their money back is gonna be like the least of their concerns because the world's gonna be absolutely screwed. And while this is not going to be like a one-to-one direct correlation, but as long as bond yields remain high, there's gonna be less of a macroeconomic incentive for Bitcoin to actually pump. And so until that changes and until there is a little bit more certainty back in the market, it's the reason why I keep saying like the bull market is not back. Currently we are pumping, yes, but Like, the signs are not like fully back yet. If you just take a look at the weekly chart, for example, very clearly you're in bearish market structure, you're in bearish order flow. And even if you did come all the way back up here at $83,000 to kind of like sweep out the high, unless you get like convincing candle closes above this level, you actually get like sustained volume trading above this level, indicating that there are enough interested buyers in stepping into the market and maintaining price above this level, like, you're not— like, the bull market's not going to be back. Chances are, if you do get a wick And you just immediately did break below, then yeah, that's just going to be a liquidity sweep, and that's going to set the precedent, or at least set up a range high sweep and return all the way back to the range low. Just like what you've seen on the daily chart right here, where after you sweep the range high, you go all the way back to the range low. In terms of the weekly chart, remember that we're currently trading in a range. This was the range low sweep right here, and once you swept out the range lows, right now you're moving to the range high. But it does not change the fact that currently price is still within some sort of a range. Now, could this be an accumulation range that lasts for a few months where, you know, a lot of big players or just people in general accumulate their positions before the bull market returns? It could be. Now, could this also be a distribution range where people just kind of like— the smart money gets into like massive shorts and just dumps the market from this point, considering that the market structure is overall still very bearish and considering that we have some key liquidity points that we can still take from before, such as at around $50,000? Absolutely. Now, which one's going to come true? No idea. Now, if I had to place my money or place my bets on one side of the equation, I'd say this is more likely to happen now. But I am also ready to just change my mind as long as I see the right signals kind of put into place, because at the It's just uncertain, right? It's kind of like mixed signals. You could make an argument for both sides of the equation, but I wouldn't get too excited about the bull market being back yet, right? We just don't have enough signals yet. So either way, it's going to be interesting to see what the interest rate decisions are going to be for today. And if I do get into any trades, like you guys can definitely just follow me on X because I'll be posting all of my trades over there. Like it's not going to be gated behind some signals groups or whatever. And if you've heard me talk a lot about, you know, CSD and liquidity and order blocks and whatever, I actually made a video like just explaining that from a very beginner-friendly perspective. If you'd like to just get a better idea of how to read the markets accurately, check out this video right here. You're gonna love it. But otherwise, I'll see you guys later or in tomorrow's video. Ciao ciao.