Bitcoin: Are We Going Lower?

What's up, guys? Welcome back to another video. Bitcoin has finally filled in that weekly Fairbade gap that we've been talking about since the start of the week. So in this video I'm going to address what's next. Is bitcoin going to continue falling or are we going to bounce from this point onwards as well as just give you the potential trade idea for today. Now before we get into that, though, yesterday we talked about a variety of scenarios that eventually ended up just, you know, being that variety of scenarios. Even though bitcoin ultimately headed down, I did mention already yesterday that I did not have full clarity. In fact, I had very little clarity. And so whatever call I was going to make yesterday, we're going to consider it as a no call. So we're going to stick with that. So far though, we are still about 86 wins out of the last 104 videos since I started tracking. And so this system is something that works. But as mentioned yesterday, like this week is just the perfect example of, you know, when you hear the saying by not every day is a trading day, not every week is a trading week. You're seeing a very prime example of what it means when people say this. Like some weeks on just not trading weeks. If you take a look at the majority of this week, we have been oscillating between 117,000 and 120,000. Right. For the most of the week. Right. For five days we've just been oscillating up and down by a factor of 3%. So it is not only until yesterday. In fact, you could even argue today because like most of the major movements actually occurred after the New York market closed. For example, the majority of this move is Asia led. I remember when I said like it took Monday to Thursday to set up all of this liquidity to ultimately get swept during Friday. And this is exactly the reason why was telling you guys like constantly in every single video, like, hey, you know, when you're in a range, just understand that the opportunities when it comes to range trading do not lie within the range, it lies outside of the range. Right? Wait for either the range low or the range high to get swept before you jump into opportunities. So now that the range low has already been swept, does that mean it's time to jump into an opportunity? Maybe. But the answer is very likely no. And I wish I could give you a better answer. But let me discuss this real quick. So weekly chart again, you are now filling in the weekly FE gap over here, which means that sometime in the near future you should theoretically start going up. As for when exactly that near future is, I do not know. In fact, it is very tough to predict timing when it comes to, you know, market movements. For example, I've been saying that hey, you know, we can expect this fever to gap to get hit sometime during the week. And I said this on Monday, it took until Friday for this to get hit. So it's very tough to predict timing. So that's not what we're going to try to do. But what we can do is to look for the confirmations for when this scenario is going to play out, which is what I'm going to get into next. But before I do though, to the swing traders out there, just understand that this is the level where you want to start potentially adding to positions. And to any of you guys who are interested in altcoins, this is the area where you start looking for altcoin positions, specifically on the mid caps. So the reason why I say that is because for the past two to three weeks and potentially even four weeks, the majority of the altcoin market move that you've seen, right? The top gainers are stuff like, you know, Solana, xrp, bnb, Ethereum. What is the commonality between all of these? They're all large caps. So if you know anything about like the crypto market money flow, you know that money flows from bitcoin at the top, moves into Ethereum and moves into large caps and then it moves into mid caps and then it goes in low caps. For the past four weeks we have been here, the four weeks before that we were here. And you're seeing a very clear theme here. Now, now that you are getting a retracement period on Bitcoin and a retracement period on these large cap coins, you are also getting a retracement period on a lot of these mid cap coins. Some promising ones are stuff like Kaito, where you're getting a really big retracement on stuff like hyperliquid, where you are also getting a pretty sizable retracement compared to what it was just a week ago. And so to those of you who are interested in altcoin, stuff that you know can potentially give you a 2.3x return compared to potentially 50% on large caps. This is the time where you want to start looking into getting into positions. This does not mean get in now, but you start looking. For example, hyperliquid is at the moment inside a daily favorite gap that also exists very closely to a Weekly order block. So you know, you would ideally be looking to stack up some of your positions over here between $40 to $35 as an example. Because right now the entire market is retracing. And if you're new to a bull market, welcome and biggest tip I can give you. If you are new in a bull market, the easiest money is often made like just after, just by buying dips. You know, everything from the weekly chart to the monthly chart to the daily chart, it's all pointing towards the upside. We're still in an uptrend. And when you can identify a clear trending condition, guess where the money is going to be made. Buying here, selling here, super easy. This is also the reason why they say like, you know, everyone's a genius in a bull market because truthfully, doesn't matter what you buy, it does matter a little bit. But as long as you, you know, you're having the balls to buy the dips and to be able to hold until it goes up, which it eventually will because we're in a bull market, then guess what, you're going to make money. And so yeah, they've passed up on the easiest money making opportunity of, I don't know, the last five years. And just understand that on, in terms of the big picture, you are incredibly bullish right now. You're just retracing does not mean that things are over. It's only a matter of time, right? Whether it stays here and just goes up or it comes a little bit lower, maybe potentially into this, like this stack of bullish order blocks right here. Let me just draw that out. Like whether or not it comes to here or if it stays here and goes up doesn't matter. Like it's not the job of traders and investors to predict the bottom. What matters is that we get an entry in an overall uptrend. Like doesn't matter. If you catch it here, if you catch it here, if you catch it here, eventually price is going to come here. And as long as you're positioned for that move, that's all that really matters. Anyways, for a shorter timeframe trader, let's start getting into it. Daily chart, you closed bearish yesterday, so technically today your daily bullish is supposed to be bearish. However, you have already gotten quite a bearish move today. Does that mean that you know it's time to stop trading now? Based off of the market conditions today, I would say yes. Because you do not have any sort of news today and you do not have any sort of news until Saturday or Even until next week. And so we've already seen the fact, like you guys have seen this firsthand. What kind of market condition is present when you do not have news? Monday, no news. Tuesday, no news. Wednesday, no news. Yesterday news, price started moving and then today no news. This is very rare because it's very rare for you to get a week where you have just one piece, like just one news day for the week. For example, next week you have Tuesday, Thursday, Wednesday, Friday, that has USD red news. And so next week compare, like relatively speaking, compared to this week is going to be a much better trading week. And so it's better, if possible, to conserve your ammunition. Ideally, you don't take any trades today and you save your ammunition to fire next week because, well, market conditions is just going to be that much better. And this is something that I discussed a lot in a bootcamp as well as in past videos. A lot of the times people are only focusing on the input, which is the price action, or maybe their process. Right, which is the system. Okay, Based on whatever Price is doing, I'm going to take it through step one, step two, step three, and execute a trade that way. That's just the input and the process. But very rarely do people think about market conditions. Right? It's not something that you can control, but it's something that you can account for. For example, throughout the rest of this week, like my stance on the market was, hey, you know, be cautious, be careful, wait for confirmation to go half risk, take your profit at 2R. Imagine if I were to have recommended people to just, whoa, yeah, just oh, yeah, we're definitely going to go down or like, we're definitely going up, like, aim for big moves. Guess what would have happened? Chances are you might have moved, like, started moving properly initially, but then you would get stopped out because you were aiming too far. That's what happens when you don't take into account market conditions. If you're in a ranging condition, you should trade as though you're in a ranging condition, which at the moment bitcoin is. But anyways, rant aside, let's move on to the 1 hourly chart. Because the daily bias is bearish, we are going to look for bearish areas to. For Price to potentially get rejected from and for us to take a trade from there. So there are three areas that I can currently see off of the top of my head, and these are just three likely areas that Price could retrace to prior to the New York session, which specifically we're going to be looking at the window between 7am New York to 10am New York in order to execute the trades. And so the game plan for today is going to be pretty simple. Retrace here, retrace here, retrace here. Either one of these three levels, you're going to hop onto the five minute chart and you're going to look for a very specific confirmation. Now, if I had to put my money somewhere, I would think somewhere here or here. I think this is a little less likely because by the point you reach to this level, I want you to just imagine the order flow right within this leg here. Okay? Boom, right? You're getting bullish, bullish, bullish, bullish, bullish. And it's going to take quite a bit for, you know, price to actually shift bearish. But if you get to, for example, this level right here, you are just going to sweep out this liquidity, right? Manipulate everyone into thinking that, oh yeah, the market's breakthrough resistance buy the breakout, you know, start going up. In reality, the one hourly order flow is still down. The daily order flow is still down. And so, yeah, like a lot of people are going to buy high here. We're going to sell to these people that are willing to buy here and then, yeah, we're going to, you know, short it all the way down here. So that's going to be the game plan for today. Once you hit these, either one of these levels, what you're going to look for specifically is a change in order flow. What is that specifically? Well, I want to paint a picture for you now. Bullish order flow, put simply, is when bullish PD arrays are being respected. Let me paint a picture of that. In fact, let me paint a picture of the opposite. Over here you have an order block. Price breaks down, fails to break above this order block and continues to make a new low. Right. Eventually, price makes a new order block right here breaks down. Like, you can see that this entire leg here is in a state of bearish flow. And so when price is in bearish order flow, that is when you start shorting. You do not start shorting when there is bullish order flow because you run into just a lot of false signals and you could potentially get stopped out. What you're going to look for today is, okay, when price is on the way up to this level or this level, it's going to be in bullish order flow, right? I, I, I physically cannot make a video at 7:00am and post it at 7:01am, for example, so I can't be there to guide you. But I can give you the scenario that you should look out for. So bullish order flow. Eventually you're going to get a shift in order flow. That's where you're going to enter. Either here or here. Place your stop above here and target 2R. Now that is the only reasonable trade for today. Again, the reason why I wouldn't start looking for longs today, even though it could happen, is because like the one hourly order flow at the moment is very bearish, as you can see. Sure, we are in some kind of higher time. Frankie level does not mean that today is the day that we start looking for longs immediately. Again, the goal is not to catch the bottom. That is not our jobs as traders. We are looking for a confirmed signal that, hey, the market has indeed started reversing in trend and we're going to try to capture this move or even this move, right? It's not too late. At the very least it will prevent us from losing a bunch of trades trying to catch this bottom or like just initial reversal. That's where a lot of people go wrong. Especially beginners think they need to catch the bottom. In reality you don't. And it's much better in this case to wait for next week before we start hopping into things. But just for today, like this is looking like a little continuation trade profile at the moment. And just understand that even though the intraday idea for the day is short, just understand that you are still within a higher time frame bullish level, which means that sure, you may reverse, but at the very least from the daily to the one hourly to the five minute, everything in the system checks out. So we're still going to just trade the system as it is, right? We don't want to overthink this. As long as the conditions within the system checks out, we take it. Regardless of how you're feeling, this is how you're able to stay really consistent. For example, in the last hundred videos or so, I've won about 80 of these analyses. There is a reason for that. I don't leave it up to, you know, how confident I'm feeling or like if I believe in the trade idea or not. It's like it's a very systematic process. As long as six out of seven of the conditions in my system are met, I'm going in. And today is, you know, one of those days. I will still play this really cautiously though, and just understand again, if you're able to not trade today, amazing. Save it for next week, you'll have a much better time. But hey, if you're going to take a trade today, I don't see any other trade possible, at least based on my system that I'm using on this channel. Your system could defer. Yeah, just short. And by the way, we've already opened up the wait list for the next intake of Bootcamp. This is where you work with me, one on one. Yes, me and you. Where I help you install all of these systems that you see on these videos. Now, I'm not going to promise that you're going to get an 80% win rate, but I promise you that you will be live market ready within 30 days if you do sign up to this. This is very different from what is being offered anywhere else on the market. It's one on one. There's a lot of feedback involved and it's very intense. And most importantly, we do guarantee you get results in 30 days. And if we don't, you get your full money back, plus more just for wasting your time. Anyways, if you're interested, sign up using the link in the description box below. But otherwise, I'll see you guys next week. Bye. Bye.