Bitcoin: Are We Safe Now?

In today's video, I'm going to be answering the question, is the bull run over? Last week we got a pretty bearish candle close. And right now let's just say that it's not looking too good. But there is still a silver lining and I'm going to get into all of that. Plus I'm going to get into the intraday setup. And if you were following me on Twitter, you would have known that that was in a trade. And this is like that trade, right there was a prime example of why you didn't jump in before you get all of your confirmation signals. This is something that I wrote, by the way, for the members inside the VIP of the masterclass, which is which. Speaking of the masterclass, guys, I know that a lot of you are on the email list, but if you don't sign up to this event, like first link in the description box below, it's a free masterclass. You don't actually click and sign up. You're not actually going to get the details of when and where this event is going to be. Just because you're on the newsletter doesn't mean that you automatically sign up to the masterclass. So just click the first link in the description box below. Yes, I will ask for an email again, you just need somewhere to send it to. But sign up and this masterclass is going to break down this exact 80% win rate strategy that you can see over the last 300 days. Yeah, but yeah, going back to what we were talking about last week, we didn't get the confirmation signals and that was a prevention of what could have been a very ugly trade. So last week, last Friday was just a no call. Let's get into the video for this week now though, kicking things off, we have closed bearish on the weekly chart. And the bad news is that we have closed beneath this level right here, which if you guys remember from, well, basically multiple weeks ago, I was mentioning that this is a key level. You do not want to close below this level. Now, the beautiful thing about bitcoin is that for four weeks and potentially even five weeks, almost five weeks, we were just trading around this level, but we never quite got that we could close below it. And so for this week, this week, this week and this week, I was still bullish on bitcoin because, well, you haven't gotten a change in order flow. However, now that you have gotten a bearish candle close now things have changed, essentially because now you are looking at. This is so laggy today, I'm not sure why? But the Internet is screwed. And now what's interesting is that if you take a look at where price is currently, this is now a potential bearish order block, which means that if price comes up, you're actually going to be looking to sell or just offload some of your positions or to take a short to drive up for price to essentially go lower. You're not necessarily bullish anymore. Now, the bright side is that this level right here, which I mentioned, like, if you close beneath this level, man, that is like. That is like over. This is over. But you did it. So you're still safe, at least for now. But I think the directional bias is going to be in some kind of pump early into this week. But then the overall bias for this week is probably going to get to the downside. Now, are we very happy if this ends up getting proven wrong in the sense that if you close above this level right here at 114, 500, this is a bearish order block at the moment. If you manage to close above this on the weekly chant, you have room to flip this potential resistance into support and to not for the gold market to continue, basically. But until that happens, well, we're going to just be looking for shorts. Now, this is a lot reminiscent, by the way, to what we got here, where we got an initial CISD here on the weekly chart. But eventually you just came down to fill some sort of favorite gap before the bull run continues. The beautiful about this is that, yes, this is cisd, this is also cisd, but you have this bullish F gap over here that is aligning with, if you draw a fib from this low to this high right here. This is the 0.705, which means in the event the price comes in here, you could very well just start heading higher. But the problem is this level here is at 90,000. We're currently at 106,000, which means that that's about a $16,000 gap between where price currently is and where we would like to see it go. If you were just trading bitcoin itself, like, sure, the damage may not be huge because that's just around a 11 or maybe like 14% dump. But if you're trading altcoins, let's just say that a bitcoin goes back to 90k, you are looking at a whole lot of pain, at least in terms of altcoins. So how do you play this? Well, me personally, the way that I'm playing this is that I've already offloaded some of my crypto Positions, I will continue to offload. As we head into this level here, I will start to build a short full price to eventually come into the zone. This zone is where I will eventually start looking to buy. It doesn't mean I just set a limit here and I buy, but I would start looking for some sort of reversal signal here. And if it happens, then that will be very, very close to the bottom. I will definitely make a video when that time comes. So make sure you subscribe and turn on the bell notification if you would like to stay up to date with my calls, which has had around an 80% win rate throughout this entire year that I've been making daily videos. Now, this doesn't mean that whatever I am doing is going to be correct. Doesn't mean that whatever I am doing is going to be the correct play for you. I'm just sharing what I am personally doing. Ultimately, you need to remember that I am first and foremost a trader and then investor second. And I would always lean towards trading what the market is telling me rather than, you know, stubbornly holding onto my beliefs. As much as I would love for the bull run to just continue here, as much as I think that there is a possibility that things could just go up from here, based on what I can see from the markets right now, it's not looking like we are coming out of this retracement period anytime soon. So in other words, qldr, this could be the final shakeout before the eventual breakout. So that's kind of the angle we're looking at for bitcoin at the moment. Now, there is also an argument that could be made that, yeah, you know, the bull runs just over, which temporarily it is, don't get me wrong, even if price does not come all the way down here, the fact that you have formed relatively equal lows underneath this low right here at $98,000 means that there is a very high chance that you're going to come and revisit this area before any sort of pumpkin. So at the very minimum, we're looking to come down to $98,000. This goes in line with the weekly bias, which is towards the bearish direction. Again, ideal zone that you want to sell from is here. And ideal zone you want to potentially even start like the first zone, right? The first zone where you even want to start looking for a long. It's going to be here. But ideally I think we're going to be looking at here. So hopefully that gives you a very good big picture understanding of what is happening. On bitcoin right now. And now let's get into the daily chart because this, it's now time to get into some intraday trades, which is what we do here on this channel. Anyways, now that we are on the daily chart, what we will immediately see is that yesterday closed pretty bullish. And we have a daily bearish F gap right here which aligns with also a daily bearish order block. So in the event that price, we're basically looking for price to come into this level either today or tomorrow, and then for the rest of the week to start dumping aggressively, that is going to be the play for this week. Now this place, this goes again in line with the weekly bias, where we have a power of three, right? Because we are bearish on the weekly, we are looking for, you know, any sort of sell opportunities above the weekly Open. Now this is the weekly open right here. So right now price is above the weekly open, which means that the high of the week is likely to come above the weekly open. Then we're going to go for a true expansion underneath the weekly Open. It's the same thing as what we did last week where we had a weekly bearish bias. And so if you take a look here on Monday, this is where you opened up. Granted, you did not go very much above the weekly Open. Like this is the high of the week and it formed above the weekly open. Now this is the opposite. If you are bullish on the week, for example, on this week here, you would have been bullish for the week. And so on this one we would have ideally wanted get into buys. So right now, any sort of pump into these higher time frame resistance levels is just going to be kind of that false move, right, the high of the week before we eventually get the true move. And so that's what we're going to be looking for in terms of the daily chart. But regardless, today, because of yesterday's daily bias, because of Friday's daily bias, we are still looking for a bullish trade. And we are going to be looking for that bullish trade to come into this favorite gap or at the very least starting at $107,000. Now of course this could change and we could just dump. From this point onwards, you don't necessarily have to come into these higher time frame resistance levels. It's just that if they do come into those higher time frame resistance levels going to be much more favorable of a position for us to take a short at. Now one other thing to note is that in terms of one hourly chart you are already in some sort of resistance level. So hey, potentially today if you start breaking lower from this point onwards and you start making, you know, just five minute changes instead of delivery towards the downside. Especially once you align this with timing which is anywhere between 7am to 10am today. Yeah, you could literally just trade it lower. And I will of course be updating you guys on Twitter as usual. Please feel free to follow me on X if you want to just you know, follow along any live trades that I do take. Otherwise like yeah, what I'm kind of anticipating at the moment is scenario A price breaks down and you just kind of momentum trade things lower. And the scenario B is that you get kind of like a three rise pattern around, you know, 7:00am to 10:00am Once you fill in that order block or once you fill in that favorite gap, then you can start heading lower and potentially the dump may not even begin until all the way until tomorrow. And that is perfectly fine. Mondays are not necessarily great for trading anyways and unfortunately I am not able to get access to Forex factory and I'm not sure why. I wish there was another way for me to get access to like news data. All right, so I can see the news data and because in the Nasdaq I don't see any news until Thursday, sorry, this is the dollar index. So let me see if there is any other news on the Nasdaq. And yeah, I don't really see too much news and this is so weird. So yeah, based on what I can see here on the charts at least like there is no news today. I just actually answered this question for one of the people that are inside the VIP group in the masterclass which by the way guys, if you're not in VIP and you are serious about learning, it's essentially like the next like two months you get to just ask me questions. So think about that for a moment and think about whether or not that is worth it. Because there are a lot of things that you can hear me say on these videos but you're not quite certain. Well, the best way to be certain is just to ask, you know, directly. Anyways, the question that I was answering is that, you know, Monday tends to be the opening range of the week. Just like how we don't usually trade the Asia session because the Asia session, like is just accumulation. Ideally we at least want to know if, you know, let's say London manipulates above, manipulates below so that during the New York we can counter trade the distribution to the other side. Monday tends to be the opening range for the week where maybe Tuesday or Wednesday we might get a manipulation kind of like what I was talking about. So Tuesday this is maybe the high of the week and then Wednesday you start with distribution, Thursday you follow and then Friday you chill and maybe even start a reversal. This is cut kind of like the average weekly profile at least for this weekly profile that we're looking at. So Monday is also perfectly fine to just not trade especially if there is no news. Like if there is news on Monday, like amazing, go ahead and trade it. It's an amazing day. But if there is no news the prob everything could align but the probability just goes down by a lot. It's also okay to just play it easy today. Of course I will be updating you on X but otherwise guys, I will see you later and I'll see you tomorrow for the video. Ciao.