Bitcoin shows conflicting signals: bearish daily chart versus bullish hourly setup. The presenter, with a 75% win rate over 190 trades, says most traders should sit out today unless price breaks below the gap and closes under $65,000 for shorts, or holds above $65,900 for longs. Ethereum mirrors Bitcoin; Solana looks more bullish.
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All right, what's up? Welcome back to another video. Today is going to be yet another non Newsday, so chances are today is going to be a lot slower. But I'm still going to break down everything that you need to know in terms of bitcoin for today as well as, well, just what would be the possible trade for today? So to kick things off, we have a bearish daily bias, which means technically we should be looking for a trade towards the downside. And this is further supported by the fact that we have just kind of touched this bearish order block on the daily chart. So essentially this is looking more and more like some sort of a breakout retest and then continuation. And just to explain what I mean when I say breakout, you know, prior to the move that happened a couple of days ago, we were very, very squarely in the middle of some sort of range in terms of bitcoin. And if there's one thing you need to understand about ranges is that you want to take advantage, or rather you only want to jump into a trade once you are outside of the middle. Basically, either you're above the range high or you're below the range low. There are usually two ways that this tends to play out. One is you get a sweep above the highs and then you go to the rang the range low or sweep below the lows and then you go towards the range high. So that is known as range deviation. And then there's the second scenario, which is going to be a breakout. So right now it's looking like a little bit of a breakout at the moment. So you just want to keep in mind that in terms of the daily chart, not only is recent price action really bearish, but just overall you are looking really bearish. Either way, though, let's go into the lower time frames and this is when things are going to start looking a little bit more shaky because while the daily bias is pointing towards the downside, the one hourly chart just got a CISD towards the upside. And so this puts us in a little bit of a predicament where we can really realistically make some sort of an argument for both sides of the equation at the moment. There is an argument to be made that, okay, we can take a long for today. And there is also an argument that can be made for we should probably stick to the daily bias. The fact that, you know, we filled in the higher time frame, you know, PD array, we should prioritize shorts. And there is, honestly, like on days like this. Let me just share with you, like what I usually do which is the best trades that I found so far. And mind you, I've been publicly documenting my trades for the last year or so and so far I have about a 75% win rate across 190 trades. Now, one of the reasons why I'm able to maintain such a good win rate and how I'm able to be so consistent like day in, day out is that I am very selective of the days that I do trade. And one of the core things that I found out is that on days where the trade just plays out like, just like that, you enter the trade and within the next 20 minutes, boom, TP hit are the days where the moment you open up the chart, it's like clear as to what price is going to do. Now in today's case, we can make an argument for both sides of the equation. Essentially. It's also another way to say that I'm not too sure and on days like this I tend to just avoid it. Or at the very least I just wait for some sort of a clear sign that, okay, price is definitely leaning this way. And that's not to say that I definitely know where price is going to go. I'm just saying I just want to wait for a clear sign that price is going to lean towards a certain direction. And so far, in terms of the one hour chart, again can make an argument, you are right now in some sort of a bearish order block. And so in the event that you kind of break lower, that is going to be the, the trigger. But at the same time, if you break lower, let's say you get a CISD below this level, what's going to end up happening is that you're going to come straight into a bullish order block because technically the one hourly chart, you have gotten a bullish cisd. So do I know what's going to happen today? Absolutely. Not even like as far as the trading window goes today we have no news. So the trading window is just going to be literally 7am to 10am New York. And even that is not going to be super obvious as to what price is likely to do. So honestly, my genuine advice is to just not trade today. We have news tomorrow and Friday. And that also means that if we are able to conserve our ammunition on the days where it's just not super worthwhile to be trading, then when the good trading days do come around, we'll be able to take advantage of it. Because not only will we have mental capital, but not only will we have financial capital but we'll also have mental capital because we didn't exhaust it trying to force the, you know, the subpar days. That's what I would personally do. But in the event that we would be looking for a trade today, I would definitely still lean towards the downside. Just. But then this is coming with a huge grain of salt because in order to get a trade towards the downside, we really want Price to just break below. Like this fertility gap right now should not be broken above. And secondly, you're going to want to see a candle close on the one hourly chart below 65,000. Now if both of these scenarios kind of align then 100%, I do think that the odds of us getting some sort of a short move, it's going to be higher than some sort of a long move. Now if that doesn't happen though, guess what, it's just going to be bullish. Right now Price is already in some sort of a bullish pd. Like this right here is called a breaker block. I don't use it often but it is a valid concept. Also there is an order block over here. So in the event that Price just kind of makes a higher high here, like especially if you close above this level at 65900, that kind of shows you an indication that Price wants to go higher. And in that case this is the order block that you want to use. But again, there is, in both of these scenarios there is a risk and there is an argument to be had that okay, price, you know, breaks above. Okay, once you take out this high boom, you're going to drop. And likewise once you fill in this further gap, right, let's say you get that cisd. Oh, you're going to short right into a third. Sorry, right into an order block and a boom, price is going to reverse. Right. There is going to be an argument on both sides of the equation today. Like regardless of how you want to play it, I still think the best way make the best move is to just be patient for tomorrow because well have news. Let's see in the five minute chart if we can kind of break this down or at least just get some sort of a clearer picture. And the answer is no. Because like usually on a good trading day we do get some sort of a sweep above the Asia high or some sort of sweep below the Asia low. In today's case, we have been trading squarely in the middle of the Asia range. This also is yet another example of how Price is just kind of indecisive as to which direction it wants to head towards. And so on a day like this, I would again, like, I sound like a broken record at this point, but I would just be patient. Now, as far as Ethereum goes again, you have basically the exact same setup in terms of the daily chart. You're getting some sort of a range breakout. Those are the 1 hourly chart. Oh, okay, that's interesting. So you've already swept out the high, which means that there's no longer much buy side liquidity. So in the event that, you know, you start breaking lower, this would be a very similar setup as well. One could argue that this is a market acre sum model where we have a smart money reversal that's first impulse up, second impulse up, clearing some sort of liquidity level. And so when you get this moment here, things are just going to drop like aggressively. Now there's no confirmation that that is going to happen yet again. Like we're still squarely in the middle at the moment where there is an argument to be had for both up or down. All I can say is as you get closer to that, you know, just trading window between 7am to 10am, we'll just see how price reacts. And one thing's for sure, I'm going to be posting on Twitter today if I happen to get into a trade. Fun fact, I do post all of my live executions on Twitter on days that I don't post. Well, guess what, I'm not trading. And in yesterday's case was also very similar where, you know, we had some sort of a clear scenario but at the same time it's like it wasn't on News day, Trump was speaking next day in Asia. And what ended up happening is I just did not respect the, or at the very least like the conditions for our system to kind of play out just didn't really happen. And so that's why it ended up being a no trade for me. But ultimately, let's take a look at Solana. We have the range, low sweep. So far this is looking a lot more bullish compared to both Ethereum and Bitcoin. But at the same time you are still bearish on the like overall you're still really bearish. Now I would say one thing's for sure, like as far as longs go, this would definitely be kind of like priority number one just because of how much stronger it looks compared to the other two charts. Right now you are potentially to close above and yeah, you have actually closed above. So technically this is already a valid order block that you can use basically to trade price higher. Now, again, this is a. This is a day where I would be looking to trade. Not necessarily. So you stake that with a grain of salt. Just because price is moving doesn't mean that you have to take every move. It's perfectly fine to just watch how price action is playing out, understanding that there will be days where you have much better conditions, and that's perfectly fine. In fact, it's a sign that you are maturing as a trader. Ultimately, nothing too much else to talk about today. Just as long as you approach today with a sense of caution. That's my job done. But otherwise, I'll see you guys tomorrow on a Tuesday. Hopefully, we'll get a decent trade, because so far this week, we have had zero opportunities. Otherwise. See you guys tomorrow. Ciao. Ciao.
