Bitcoin: Big Day Incoming, Don't Miss This

What's up, guys? Welcome back to another video. Now, yesterday's trade also ended up being a loss, or at least a call that I made ended up being a loss. And it's pretty rare that I have gone through a two losing streak in the last like five months that I've been tracking these calls. So yeah, officially this puts us up to, sorry, down to 82 wins out of the last 99 videos that I've made. Although that is still a pretty good rate. And ultimately, fundamentally, nothing has changed with the system. The same system is what has gotten us to, you know, 82 wins in the first place. Couple of losses, perfectly fine. But just to give you guys a little reflection on what probably went wrong yesterday, like the condition that I gave you guys was a. If you get a one hourly candle close above this level right here, then you want to look for longs, right? But then yesterday's daily bias was pointing up, but the one hourly was pointing down. So that was just time frame misalignment in general. I also mentioned that yesterday that I would ideally be looking to trade on a day where the conditions are a bit more clear. And it seems like today could be one of those days. But essentially I was just kind of forcing a trade in a day where I should have otherwise just, you know, chilled. And the second thing that potentially went wrong is if you remember yesterday, we did the talk about this FE gap right here. I was expecting that to get filled actually yesterday, but somehow price stopped just short of that level. Now the better move would have been to exercise, you know, just extreme caution because there is time frame misalignment and most importantly, potentially wait for this further gap to get filled, which, you know, also did mention yesterday. Once this FE gap is filled, then you can start heading towards the upside. It wouldn't be too late to wait for the next day before taking this trade. But you know, that's the reflection over. It is a loss. It is what it is. Today we're going to try to, you know, break this two losing streak. And yeah, let's get into it. So going, starting off on the weekly chart, you are still incredibly bullish. You are still heading towards this target at the moment. Now with short, you may go through a retracement period we do not yet notice though, because in order for at least the weekly chart to confirm some kind of retracement period, you would need to go back to $100,000. Now, even on the daily chart, at the very least $106,000. Because once this happens, this is a change in state of delivery. This is a break in market structure, whatever you want to call it. Until that happens, you are still very much bullish and you should still be looking for longs. Now the only problem with this is that yesterday the daily candle closed bearish, which means the daily bias for today should be bearish. Now the only problem with that is the fact that yesterday's candle closed bearish, which also means that today's daily bias should be bearish, which means this should be the target for today. However, once you go into the one hourly chart, you'll start seeing a slightly different picture. And one of the reasons actually why I have delayed making this video as late as I could possibly get is because, well, let's just put it this way, for the majority of London, nothing has been happening outside of the fact that you have broken up above Asia and you, well, most of the trading volume is, you know, happening above the Asia high. This is a good sign for a potential a see, you know, session profile today where A is your accumulation, right? Asia accumulation, London breaks out, holds above the Asia high and then New York like before New York, you may retrace a little bit and then you continuate to the upside, which means also that today is another day where we're getting a bit of time frame misalignment here. Because if you guys remember, the daily chart is pointing towards the downside. The one hourly chart at the moment is like weakness. This is now known as a changes delivery, which means the one hourly is now bullish. So right now one hourly is bullish, daily is bearish. Which is exactly the reason that causes the loser trade yesterday. This does not mean that today is just straight up a no trading day. The reason why I mentioned this is to take into account what kind of environment we are trading in. So the fact that we have time frame misalignment means that, you know, compared to a day when you have time frame alignment, this is a lower probability day. And this means that if we do take trades, we want to be one, a bit more cautious. Two, we may want to take our profits a bit sooner. Three, we may want to go half risk just taking into account the environment. Now if everything else within the system still matches up, I am still going to take the trade and but I want to keep this environment in mind. A big mistake people tend to make is they do not ever consider the environment. And so potentially in like ranging conditions, they'll set targets that are really far away and you know, price goes up a little bit and it stops and out. And it's not a problem with the system. It's more about, you know, just taking into account what is going on in the environment at the moment. And in terms of today, just purely based off of price action does not seem like, you know, this is an A plus day. Although there is still one very promising setup that you can take and that is going to be relating to the ABC session profile. Before we get into that though, let's take a look at news. So Today we have 8:30am news. This is called PPI and PPI, which means that today is still a. Generally on news days, the price action tends to be a bit more clean, yesterday being the exception. And most importantly, when you have news, it means that the day is going to have some kind of volatility. Now the thing that makes trading so tough for so many people is usually you are dealing with a lot of variables at the same time. A being, you know, the direction of price, is it going to go up or is it going to go down? Second is how far up, halfway down. And then you have to deal with timing as well, like when is it going to happen? Or like how long can I expect the, you know, the move to last, for example. And news days are great in the sense that they pretty much tell you that, hey, at 8:30am on Wednesday, July 16, something's going to happen, right? Price is going to move. And your job then is to identify what type of move is it's going to be. And that is where we get into the session profiles and the session profiles you. There are usually two ways that the market tends to play out. One is a amd, which is kind of what happened yesterday actually, because we had Asia Accumulation London with the manipulation and then eventually it retraced. Now if you guys remember, one of the setups that I caught yesterday was that price would sweep out this high right here before falling. The only problem came because I added a condition saying that if you get a one hourly candle close above this line right here, you would actually want to be looking for longs, right? And upon reflection, I probably should have, you know, been more clear cut about this manipulation move. And then now we get into the session profiles and then there are usually two ways that price tends to play out when it comes to session profiles. And this has been true for the past like 99 videos that we've been making. It either plays out in one of two ways, right? First you have your accumulation, manipulation and distribution. Clearly this day does not look like it is going to Go down. So then that brings us on to the second one which is an accumulation breakout and a continuation. We saw this very clearly yesterday in the sense of accumulation here, London breaks below and then for the most part most of the trading volume is below the Asia low. And then right before the New York session you actually retraced take out this high, which is a condition that I mentioned yesterday. Like hey guys, don't be surprised if you, you know, sweep this high and then price goes down. The only problem that led to a loss yesterday is that I did mention that if you get a one hourly close above this line right here, then you would ideally be looking for longs. So we did ended up getting the sweep, but we also got the, you know, kind of candle close which just ended up being a little bit contradictory. But overall yesterday was still an a breakout retracement continuation type of trade and today seems like it's going to be another one of those. So the game plan for today is going to be pretty straightforward. At the moment with this candle right here, you have a fair value gap. You have an order block right, right here. And you also have another potential bigger order block down here. Now retracement into either one of these levels in between the hours of 6am to let's say 8 or 8:30am is going to give you a setup to go long continuation. Now one thing that I must again caution you about is that the daily bias is bearish at the moment. We have a daily ferbly gap here that has yet to be filled, but we got really close. So just be aware that this could just straight up reverse and I will give you the invalidation scenario for, you know, what to look for in case, you know, things start going down instead. But at least for now, based on the one hourly chart as well based on the session profiles, it is at the moment safe to say that you're going to be looking for a retracement before continuation. Now just keep in mind that things could also happen around the 9:30am mark because yesterday, even though the news was at 8:30am the real move, like the big aggressive move actually happened between the hours of, if you take a look here, 9:30am to 10:00am where price, you know, just reversed basically. And today could also be one of those days. But like if I had to put my money somewhere, I would say between the hours of, you know, 7:00am, 8:30am going to get that retracement and if you start seeing the market give you a five minute change in state of Delivery, then that's going to be what you need in order to get into a long trade for today. Now, speaking about the exact confirmations that you should be looking for, just understand that at the moment you can say that this, you know, leg up here is known as bullish order flow. But you can also say that this leg up here, sorry, down here is bearish order flow. And the difference between the both is, you know, you want to see bearish order blocks getting retested and like being respected in general. Once Price came into this bearish order block right here, it started going down. It did not break this bearish order block. And so you can see that this entire swing here is in a state of bearish order flow. So chances are if you start going into like, especially if you go down into this area right here, you are going to be in bearish order flow. And so what you want to look for is for, you know, order flow to start changing into bullish. And then at this point here to probably get in, wait for a retracement, maybe it can get in, stop loss underneath this low. And that's going to be the setup for today. Now, in case where you get an invalidation whereby, you know, at the moment, again, the daily chart is pointing towards the downside and the daily chart is a higher time frame compared to the one hourly chart. So it may go down in the event that that happens. The area that you want to look for for a short to happen is right here at this bearish order block, which by the way, if you do take a long here, just secure some profit once you hit this bearish order block right here because there is a potential that Price could go for a little retracement before tomorrow. You continue on. Now, if you're a swing trader, this is not going to matter because none of the ideas that I mentioned in this video are for swing trading. Heck, they're not even for short term trading. So this is purely from an intraday perspective and we're taking day by day, secure some of your profit over here. Then tomorrow we can potentially look for more continuation. Now don't get me wrong, Price could also just straight up, you know, continue on to form a new all time high or something. It is possible, but just in case, you can always secure some profit and leave a runner for in case if it goes further. Now the invalidation scenario today is a, you know, we want to look for potentially a short here. I wouldn't do it today though. But the second one is if you start breaking below Especially this level right here. I don't. Again, I don't think this is going to happen, which is why I said earlier that if I had to put my money somewhere, I do think it's going to be abc. Right? Continuation to the upside. And the reason for this is because at the moment, price is at $119,000 at the moment and in order to get a one hourly close beneath, you know, 117300, that is about $2,000 that Bitcoin needs to move within the next three hours or so. Not saying that it's impossible, but it's not as likely in the event though that you do get a break below this level here and if you get a one hourly candle close below here, this would be a confirmed cisd. Now another one of the mistakes that I made yesterday is that like this level right here is kind of cisd, right? If you break above here, it's kind of cisd but it wouldn't be fully, fully confirmed. Like this level here would be the undeniable CISD to where at which point you can confidently say that order has shifted bullish. So I'm not going to make the same mistake today and say that. Oh, just because if you close below this bullish order block right here, this is already CISD, right? If you get this one right here, then 100% you going to go down. I don't want to say 100% because trading is still a probabilities game. Nothing is ever 100%. It is only likely. But I can definitely say that if you get a close below here, this is changing state of delivery and price is likely to be, you know, bearish at that point and you will target this fair value gap. Is that likely to happen today? Probably not. In fact, likely not currently. This gives you a very clear game plan heading into today and if you would like to go from where you are right now to trade ready within the next 30 days, basically learn the system that has achieved an 80% win rate over the last five months for yourself and you just got to follow the rules and we help you install it. Plug and play. Feel free to click the first link in the description box below to check out Bootcamp, which is our flagship one on one program. Yes, you will be working with me, but otherwise to the rest of you, cheers for watching this video and I'll see you in the next one. Bye bye.