Bitcoin: BIG Monthly Close/Open Move INCOMING!!

What's up guys? Welcome back to another video. As you can see the backdrop is a little bit different today. We're currently at the airport and originally I would not have been able to film this video. However our original flight got rescheduled to an hour and a half later. So here I am to get the video out for you from hello high water. Anyways, as a caveat to recording this video at the airport, it is very likely that this is not going to be edited or at least I guess just going to be minimal editing because our editor his right here as well. And so yeah, depending on when we need to board a flight. Right. Just bear with the rawness of this video. Anyways, let's get into today's video. So yesterday we talked about how price was going to head towards the downside and this would happen after you get that five minute change in state of delivery. And funnily enough like about 25 minutes after I finished recording the video, we did indeed get that five minute change in state of delivery started heading towards the downside. That is also the moment where I entered a trade. However, as I posted on Twitter if the yeah, my computer is still bugging out. Yep, computer is still bugging out for one reason or another. Started bugging out since yesterday. Probably going to have to switch a computer now. Anyways just take my word for it. Yesterday on Twitter I was like okay I did not Quite get a 2R but you can look for an opportunity to re enter later on and re enter later on indeed. Because like prior to FOMC around 10am 11am you did sweep the highs right? Basically stopping out everyone that did not yet take profit. I had already set my stops to break even. In fact I even recommended you guys to set your stops to break even. If you would like to get more of these like real time updates, feel free to follow me on Twitter at Underscore the Art of Crypto. That's where like outside of the videos like because I can give you the scenarios and videos but it's really tough for me to just make like real time updates because well these videos need to be edited. So yeah so yesterday ended up getting stopped at break even but eventually you did get a second re entry price entered closing lower and so yesterday is definitely a win. Now prior to yesterday I was sitting at 86 wins over the last 107 videos and so this puts us to 87 wins over the last 108 videos. I do publicly track this on Twitter as well and this is just to give you confidence as the viewer that hey, you're watching a channel where we are more often right than we're wrong and that's all that matters. But anyways, moving on to the daily chart for the day. Even though yesterday's candle closed bearish, we had an overall really strong positive move to the upside. And so first of all, I'm still really glad that we bounced back from that because we had a really rough week prior to that. But yesterday ended up striking the balance. And for today, the daily bias, purely based off of the daily vibes, or rather the daily flows from yesterday, it is supposed to be towards the downside, but this could look slightly different the moment we go into the lower time frames and again like I the speakers are just blasting away. Like everyone is just like moving around. So if, if you guys start hearing some background noise, like I really do apologize for that. Anyways, the one hourly chart, we are still overall bearish unless something specific happens. That something specific is going to be a candle close above this level right here at 118700. If you get a one hourly candle close above this level right here, it would signify a bullish change instead of delivery. Because otherwise we are still technically in terms of just pure order flow, we are still in bearish order flow. The moment you get a candle close above this, that is kind of like a long signal that hey, today is most likely going to be an Asia accumulation, London breakout, New York continuation type of setup. Until that happens though, you still need to play it a little bit cautiously. Now from what I remember, because I've been talking about news pretty much since last week and even up till now, today is a news day. As for what time the news is, I have no idea. Like my computer is bugging out at the moment, so I don't really want to switch tabs. Seriously, don't know what happened. Started yesterday night, but definitely, it definitely means I need to start upgrading to maybe one of the newer MacBook Pros. Anyways, just taking a look at the one hour chart again, yeah, you're in bearish water flow. Until that changes, you don't really want to be jumping into longs yet. And another reason for that is because on the daily chart you are also like yesterday's candle close bearish, which means like purely based off of candle range theory, your daily bias today is supposed to be towards the downside purely based off of that. So we should be prioritizing shorts. However, we have reason to believe that because of the overall higher time frame flow, for example, this Level like this retracement all the way down here was filling in some kind of weekly bullish fe gap. Right. We've already explained this like for a, like for at least a few days now. And at the moment the overall flow is going to be towards the outside. Now ultimately that is still something that we want to see from the market. It's not something that is absolutely, absolutely confirmed yet. And so we're still gonna just take it easy and like we expect long term it's going to go up, but for today we may not have the signal yet to just enter right off the get go. So going back down to the five minute just to give you guys a better picture of how this is going to work. And again WI fi is really spotty. So this is your Asia range at the moment. London has traded majority of the session above the Asia range. And if you do not get a one hourly candle close above this level, this would mean that Asia is going to be your accumulation, London is going to be your manipulation and New York is going to be your distribution. This is further backed up by the fact that at the moment you have a five minute change of delivery at the moment. And so technically speaking you could already enter a trade from over here. You can start placing a stop loss above this high and you can target 2R and that would be a brilliant trade. Now this again changes, this would be the, probably the official call because of the daily bias being towards the downside. And I did make a promise yesterday that I would try to trade the system more often then rather than using my, what's the, what's the word for this? Discretion. Yeah, instead of using discretion. Right. Because trading ultimately like profitable trading sustained over time is a result of following your system come hell or high water rather than a product of trading skill. You know, because you can be a really skilled trader but that does not mean that you're going to be making money or that does not mean that you're going to be, you know, just consistently doing well when it comes to trading. So anyways, we already have that five minute change instead of delivery, which technically means that right now we can already start jumping into a short targeting either this low or that low. But personally being someone who holds, you know, bags in crypto, I would most likely especially because today also we have news. I would most likely wait until an hour before news to the hour after news and see if you get some sort of one hourly candle close above this level. Because if you do, you could potentially start looking for price to do this, something like that. And then you can potentially use this prior bearish order block, flip it into bullish, like flip it into support and then you bump from there. So but again just understand that if you are taking a long two day, you are by definition counter trend trading because the daily bias is still towards the downside. Which means that if we were to take longs, ideally we should be waiting until tomorrow and not today. Another thing to keep in note, or rather to keep in mind is that today is also the last day of the month, which also means that this is the monthly close and tomorrow we are potentially going to get, you know, a decent bit of volatility. Even today we're probably going to get a decent bit of volatility to close out the month. Now tomorrow very likely going to be the same. So for today it's highly imperative that we get the direction right. At the moment the one hourly chart is still a little bit the right word to use for this is indecisive because you are very close to getting a very, you know, one hourly bullish cisd. But at the same time because of everything else that is pointing towards the downside, you have for example on the 5 minute A Asia AMD and you have on the one hourly still in bearish order flow and then you have your daily pointing towards the downside. As long as we get the direction right, the move for today is going to be pretty explosive, a lot like what happened yesterday. So as for the timing, you don't want to just be jumping into these trades like blinding. You also want to pay attention to timing in terms of that again I cannot pull up, in fact I could probably pull it up on my phone but feel free to just go on to forexfactory.com calendar, filter it by red folder USD news and our leading up to that and the hour after that is. Do you mind pulling up Forex Factory calendar for me on your phone? Forex Factory calendar in fact I'm going to show you. So yeah, just expect there to be, you know, more of a setup kind of period, more of a accumulation kind of period heading into the news. And once you get the news, well you know exactly what to look out for. Now if we were trading the system exclusively then we would be looking at a trade towards the downside and taking a look at news. Today we have news exactly at. 8:30am so yeah, within the next couple of hours you should see something, you should see something happen on the chart. But anyways, the target for today as usual target 2R but like, I wouldn't necessarily, you know, go all the way down to the swing low right here. Again, WI fi is very spotty. Like even just taking a profit at the Asia low would already be sufficient. And again, this gets completely invalidated. Like, just be ready to kind of shift your direction because the moment you get a one hourly change of state delivery towards the upside here, then, yeah, you're going to be looking pretty good for longs anyways. I hope that, like, I wish I could have given you a more clear signal, but unfortunately due to the rush schedule that I'm trying to make for today and also the fact that, yeah, we're just not really getting the clearest of signals unlike yesterday. Yesterday was super clear. The day before was super clear as well, but today is just a little bit less clear. But hey, hopefully this gives you all the prep that you would need in order to make a good decision. Personally, I'm not going to be making a call today. Like, I'm not going to count this. Just literally coming on to give you guys what you need to know. And like, yeah, of course, like I'm going to be getting on a flight soon. Definitely no way I'm going to be trading today, but otherwise, guys, going to enjoy the rest of my espresso. Have a good day, safe day trading and I'll see you guys hopefully tomorrow. Ciao.