Bitcoin trader maps out intraday scenarios for an FOMC day, with specific entry points and invalidation levels across Asia, London, and New York sessions. The overall trend is up but the daily candle is bearish, creating conflicting signals. The creator skips the New York afternoon session due to timezone constraints.
Questions this video answers
May 28, 2025.
60 wins out of the last 73 public calls (over ~70 videos), implying a win rate above 80%.
2pm (speaker references FOMC starting at 2pm).
Chapters
What's good, guys? Welcome back to another video. We absolutely nailed one from yesterday. Quite literally like 20 minutes after I finished recording the video, price started filling in the fair bit gap, filled it once, twice and three times and boom, shot straight to the target. Right now we have relative equal lows here. So all you want to do is see price sweep into here. You want to see a bullish change of state or delivery and a boom. Retrace your entry here. Stop here on the newly formed low, wherever the low may be. Right. Price could dip here. Price could dip here. I don't know where the low is going to be. Right? There's a couple of hours until the New York session. Usual wits about to. And ultimately you just want to see all three time frames align, right? That's the framework that we're using. Daily chart is bullish. Weekly chart is bullish. One hourly chart is bullish. So all you want to see is that five minute chart, right? Whenever it shifts, bullish. After filling in some kind of key level, that is when you should be looking to enter. And once you do enter, take a 2R, take it at the previous day high and that should give you a very clean setup for today. If you guys remember, the limit kind of entry that I set for you guys yesterday would have been this one right here for 4.5R. And of course we ultimately got the reversal after that point, which is why we went like. It's a very clear distinction on what we do here, which is intraday trades. We're not talking about swing trading. I'm open to talking about swing trading, but I'm just telling you that these videos are for intraday. Anyways. That puts us up to 60 wins out of the last 73 calls publicly on YouTube, like over the last 70 video videos or so since February. That's our win rate. And so that puts us well above 80%. And so to the ones who are new to this channel, just know that I will try to maintain this streak. And so today we're going to talk about bitcoin and give you guys the update on what is the setup for today. And to kick things off, it is not looking amazing because yesterday's candle was pretty volatile in the sense that you set a low and you set a high without any sort of clear direction. Ultimately, this means one thing, is that today could be an inside bar. It highly depends on whether or not there is news today. And if we take a look at this, we have FOMC meeting minutes. Chances are it's not going to be A very choppy day. And so now brings me on to the second thing because FOMC tends to be a pretty late news event. You're seeing that kind of play out on the lower time frames at the moment where London like even though it's been an hour since London started, it's been just chopping around and this is pretty common on an FOMC day where Asia and London tends to be the accumulation. And then you get the manipulation sometime during New York morning. And then today the most volatile move is going to happen during the New York PM session. Which also means that since I'm currently in Asia at the moment, I am not going to be able to to trade this session. But I will give you my take on what to expect. So going back to the daily chart, the other thing to keep in mind is that you have the down close candle yesterday. Purely based on that today's daily bias should be towards the downside targeting the previous daily low. But do not forget that overall you are still within an uptrend and so higher time frame trend up. But today could be down. But now that we have our higher time frame kind of like direction, let's head into the lower time frames to see what's going on. So lower time frame from what we can see as well is that bullish, like order flow is overall bullish so far the market structure is also overall bullish in the sense that you formed a higher high here, formed higher low and at the moment this is also considered a higher high. Now the only concern that I may have with this is the fact that you have now shifted into bearish order flow in terms of the lower time frames similar to what we saw here. And ultimately we knew that this was just a retracement move and this is very likely also a retracement move because of what I taught you guys earlier with the higher time frame bias or rather the higher time frame trend being overall to the upside. And so now we just need to look look for some areas where price may retrace to. Now this order block here has already been filled during the Asia session just now. And so if price does not bounce from here, then it means that we are going for this liquidity point right here. Right? This is just trying to break it down at the moment because currently we do not have enough price action for me to basically give you a very confident answer. Right? That's the difference between recording this video close to 6am New York and recording this video at 3am New York. I wish I could do it at the same time every day. But this day, given the fact that FOMC is starting at 2pm, I'm gonna have to wait pretty long for any sort of price action to play out. And so do pardon this video, it's going to be more about, you know, scenarios, thinking and planning ahead. I'm going to give you guys the scenarios as well as the conditions. And you know, depending on which conditions are met, you guys can just take the trade by yourself. This is how we think as traders, right? So currently the level that will invalidate this kind of like bearish situation would be a break above this bullish order block right here. Sorry, break above this bearish order block right here on the one hourly chart. If you get a one hourly kind of close above this level right here, you can look for a retrace for Price to eventually head higher and we can further confirm this with the Asia high. Now ultimately, if you are bullish for the day, for example, if Price is going to show a bullish reaction, first of all, breaking above this level would mean that you take out the Asia highs and then retracing into this level means that you're going to retrace into the Asian range to find support for an ultimate ABC situation in the sense that Asia's accumulation, depending on when the breakout happens, breakout continuation. This will be the bullish scenario, right? So if you get a candle close above that level, it means you are bullish for the day and you can start looking for longs. The only issue that I can see with that potentially, you know, messing up that plan is the fact that this is, this entirety here is a very shorter block, which means that if you do take a long here, there could be a possibility where price just start shooting down from this point onwards, although the conditions are clear, once this is met, it is worth a risk taking along if you're an interested trader. Now personally, just to play it safe, I would not recommend going full risk on this one. Like today is a little bit, you know, more blurry of a day in the sense that yesterday we had a pretty big range and it's kind of tough to tell which direction Price is heading towards at the moment. Now we move on to the bearish scenario which at the moment purely based off of the daily bias of today's candle and the current price action. So if I on the one hourly chart it is pointing towards the bearish direction. And so now we just need to look for signs to confirm that we are indeed bearish. Bearish. And the condition for this is also going to play around the Asian range. This, by the way, is what makes it tough for me to give you a concrete answer at the moment. Because we have not yet broken above or below the Asian range. There is nothing for me to kind of determine. And so I just have to go off of, you know, experience and like pattern recognition of seeing this play out, you know, tens, hundreds of times. The setup that you want specifically is for price to continue showing you bearish order flow. For example, this right now is a bullish order block, right? You want to see price break below this come back up, you know, get rejected and ultimately you want to see that Asia low get broken. Now once that happens there, if you are still bearish, then you want to look for also an ABC situation on the lower time frames in the sense that Asia's accumulation, you get a breakout at some point and then New York continuation. Now I've already mentioned the fact that because today we have FOMC that's happening at, that's happening at 2pm it means that the move today is probably going to keep coming later during the day, which means New York morning can be the accumulation. You may see the breakout during the New York morning and then some kind of retrace before the real move, volatile move happens at New York afternoon session. Now again, I will not be there today to trade that, but essentially look for something like this to happen prior, like let's say this, this level right here would be like 1pm or like 12pm and then ultimately you'll get the move towards the downside or to the upside at, you know, 2pm or getting close to the FC 18 minutes. Currently the low of the day is going to be the bearish target and the high of today is going to be the bearish, bullish target with a TP1 potentially at the order block. But like it's kind of pointless to take profits at the order blow. Essentially you just need to realize that you're within a very big range at the moment. It's tough at the moment because we do not have enough price action to see like in which direction price is going to go. But I'm hopefully, you know, briefing you guys on all of the information that you need to know in order to make a, you know, educated decision on what to do today. Now personally, just to go on record, just so you know, we have something to tabulate in terms of the calls. Honestly, I don't even know. Like there's just too little price action at the moment. There's no break of Asia high or Asia low. So now I'm going to say that my call is probably to the downside. If I had to put my money somewhere, but this is not the highest probability, you know, video that I've made purely because there is not enough price action. But the conditions are clear. This would be kind of like bullish and this would be bearish. And you guys should know what to do. And this also leads me onto a comment by someone which is a great question, right? How do you know if the reversal shift is occurring on a five minute, not continuing lower? Essentially what you want to look for is order flow. That's my reply to you. And so order flow essentially just means that bullish order blocks, like bullish order flow means that bullish order blocks are being respected, which means that if you bounce from here and you form a new high, it means that this bullish order block was respected. And so you can say that you are in bullish order flow. If you are in bearish order flow, it means that bearish PDAs are being disrespected. So, for example, you break down here, if you start making a new low, it means that this bearish order block was respected. And so you are in bearish order flow. Order flow tells you way more than what market structure can ever do. In fact, this is like early confirmation before market structure gives you any sort of like, you know, bos or change of character or whatever, you already know that price is in bullish or bearish mode purely off of the order flow. So that's the answer. And to the rest of you that replied to Lisbon and Barcelona, like, thank you for taking the time to leave those comments. I've been doing a lot more research over the last 24 hours and I have realized that it gets pretty hot in Lisbon and Barcelona. And being from Asia, like I have, truthfully, I have enough of hot weather, so probably going to just spend a little bit more time in Asia and probably head to Europe closer to the, you know, late summer months. Probably also Lisbon and Barcelona, because I do want to check them out. Been like a. I'm on a mission currently to find a place where I could, you know, potentially settle down for longer. And it helps to, you know, spend a month or two in many different cities just to see if I could see myself living there. And to the people that are recommending places, like, for example, unless you want to experience Lisbon specifically for some reason. Yeah, at the moment, definitely Lisbon or any. If you guys have any other cities within Europe that are, have great weather. Not too cold. Not a big fan of the cold either. Great weather, great coffee, culture, and I don't know, great cities in Europe. Feel free to recommend it as well. But otherwise to the rest of you, if you would like to see more analyses based on the smart money perspective on crypto, then make sure you subscribe to the channel. And if you haven't already, I did a weekly outlook at the beginning of this week, basically looking through 20 charts and giving you guys the five or six best ones to trade. Some of them are already playing out so far, and if you haven't watched that yet, check it out. You're not too late to take advantage of those opportunities yet. Otherwise, see you in the next one. Bye Bye.
