bitcoin: big news dump incoming (take advantage of it)

The Art of Crypto is hosting a live trading event April 1-2 and breaks down Bitcoin's technical setup: bullish daily bias but bearish short-term, with a potential short below $66,500 and target around $68,000. He notes 40-45% of registered traders admit to overtrading, which he'll address during the event.
Chapters
What's good, guys? Welcome back to another video. Before I get into it, very important announcement. The live trading floor is going to be starting tomorrow. In 2 days, I'm going to hope to pass the funding challenge, hopefully alongside you guys. And essentially, if you've ever wanted to see me execute this system in real time, like throughout many, many hours, like April 1st, April 2nd are going to be the days. If you haven't signed up already and if you would like the invite link so you know where it's going to be held, make sure you click the first link in the description box below. But otherwise, let's get into the Bitcoin video for today. In fact, let's start off with yesterday, actually, because ultimately the scenario that we kind of drew out ended up playing out. Unfortunately, instead of this being the 3 drives pattern that we were looking for, we ended up getting 5 drives, which is pretty rare. I'm going to say that right now, like, 5 is pretty rare. Secondly, we ultimately got that CSD towards this, like, below this 1-hourly, you know, kind of line. But unfortunately, it happened at 1 PM New York time, which is not part of our trading window. And so yesterday just ended up being a no trade, even though, you know, we had the idea. By the time it played out, it was already outside of timings, which if you guys have followed my channel for any period of time, one of the things that I like to say often is that just because the market is open 24/7 doesn't mean that you should be taking trades 24/7. In fact, most of the good news throughout the day tend to be focused in on just like a few kind of like key zones. That's going to be the New York morning, it's going to be the London open kill zone, it's going to be the Asia kill zone, and potentially even the London close, kind of like New York futures open, if you want to consider that as a kill zone. And You know, the beautiful thing about the live trading flow is that you're going to have, like, you're going to be able to see my exact thought processes when, you know, something like this is happening, where the market, like, where we have a clear idea about what the market's supposed to do, but then there are not enough conditions to confirm a potential trade. And so we just end up doing nothing. And in fact, fun fact, so far about 2,000 of you have signed up to the live event itself. And we ask you to basically fill in the survey of, you know, what problems that you're dealing with, or like, what are the biggest problems kind of like holding you back from achieving trading success. And about 40 to 45% of you have stated that you overtrade a lot even when there's nothing there. And if that's exactly what I'm going to help you kind of like solve tomorrow in the event. And by the way, thank you so much for taking the time to fill in the survey because if you did not fill that in, I would not have known what you were struggling with and the presentation tomorrow compared to what it is currently would have been like a lot more general. So shout out to you guys who took the time to fill in the survey. Just understand that you've helped me help you better. But anyways, in terms of Bitcoin today, We're looking at a bearish, sorry, a bullish daily bias, although that can be a little bit misleading because like so far you are still kind of trading back into this bearish fair value gap over here. But for now, like let's go into the 1-hourly chart to see if there is a potentially clearer picture here. What I can see right off the get-go is that currently you are looking to make a CSD below 66,500. Now if you do make that CSD below that level, then it's not like you're just going to go dump straight away. I do see the world where, you know, potentially you have this one hourly fair value gap so that you can come and form a lower high before you dump. In this case, that would kind of complete the, you know, kind of head and shoulders pattern that we have been eyeing since yesterday. And if that happens, then great, you know, we're going to have a potential short on our hands. But at the same time, because the daily bias is bullish and you have a couple of relatively equal lows here, there's some potential where by the time you sweep out, you know, these lows, price might start pumping towards this level right here that we already drew out. But again, this wouldn't— it's not me saying like, okay, once the lows have been swept out, we're just going to go for a full-on, you know, long towards, you know, $68,000. I'm I'm saying that because so far the order flow seems pretty bearish. What I'm saying is that, you know, potentially the trade for today might just be a trade back into that fair value gap. A small trade, I know. Or the better one is to just ignore the kill zones, right? And just go directly for that downside move. So far, I'm giving a little bit more weight to the downside move. But let's take a look at news to kind of like confirm our theory. So, so far, we have news on every single trading day of the week, which is going to be fantastic because every day is basically going to be a high-quality trading day. Today, it's going to be at 10 AM. So I think this sets us up for a potential, you know, retrace by the time you get the CICD below level, and by the time you kind of retrace all the way back into that fair value gap, I think it would be fair to say that it would be close to that news window. Which by the way, if you don't know what the news window is, it's the hour before news to the hour after news. So that's where we would ideally like to focus our trading at. Now as usual, I'll be making any updates on Twitter if I do get into any trades. But to be honest, like the last few days I've just been so busy with, you know, kind of prepping for the event tomorrow. The presentation is going to be absolutely insane. Like I've just basically tailored something that I think most of you, in fact I have the exact numbers, 70% of you are facing some sort of executional problem. And that's what the presentation presentation tomorrow is going to be very focused on. So if possible, if you guys have signed up for the live event, try to show up in the first hour of the live event. Otherwise, you're going to miss the entire presentation, and like, you're just going to be starting on the back foot if you join late, because like, day 2 is just going to be very, you know, live trading focused. Yeah, try not to miss it if possible. But otherwise, going down into 5-minute chart, just see if I can find some other confluences. So far, it's— yeah, you know, it's looking pretty bearish. So I'm gonna, you know, go on a whim and say that we should ignore the daily bias today, and we should just wait for a breakdown and then price to continue down towards the downside. Now, if there updates to that thesis, I will of course update you on Twitter. But so far it seems like you're going to be going for that $65,000 target. At the very least, before the news, like before the news even happens, it's very high likelihood that you will already hit $66,000. But like for now, the daily kind of like move seems to be going towards the downside at the moment. Now in terms of Ethereum, it's basically going to be the exact same setup. You're coming back into the fair value gap and in terms of the hourly, you don't really have SMT. So, so far I think we're going to be focusing on Ethereum. And yeah, Solana is looking quite considerably weaker actually. There is potential in taking advantage more of Solana just because of how much more relatively weak it is looking compared to Bitcoin. But to be honest, because we have USD/CAD news today, like the trade setup, the better trade setup actually could even be in forex because right now you've got a very clear PDRA on hourly, you have a very clear daily bias, and you have news on Canadian ledger at 8:30 AM. You've got a couple of relatively big lows here, sweep this out, come back, like, guys, what did I tell you? Take advantage of forex. Which, speaking about forex, guys, if you want to make the most out of the live event, since it's going to be a live trading event, I'm not just going to be trading Bitcoin, right? I'm also going to be trading in forex. So right now, Apex today just started a 90% off. So basically for $25, you can pick up a $50,000 account. If you haven't already had access to forex, I highly recommend you pick an account up for $25, get a $50K account, connect it to your TradingView. It's super simple. It's not a lot of money. And show up to the event tomorrow with a forex account at the very least so that you can take advantage of all of the forex trades And I'm going to call. In fact, if you've been putting off getting into forex or just putting off getting a funding challenge for a long time because it just seems really foreign to you and like, oh yeah, you know, I've never done this before. I don't know what all this terminology means. Guess what? Tomorrow is the perfect opportunity for you to just pull the trigger because you'll have someone there to kind of like explain things to you as we go. Otherwise, I'll see you guys tomorrow. Super excited. Yeah, going to be exhausting, but super excited anyways. Cheers.










