Bitcoin: dangerous move coming today (be careful)

What's up guys, before I get into this video, just a reminder that we have a $25,000 giveaway and you have around 48 hours left to submit an entry. Like, this is the biggest giveaway that we've ever done, so go and submit an entry before it closes. First link in the description box below. You can also see the URL just right here or something, wherever it's on screen. But otherwise, let's get into this video. So Just to kick things off, today we have FOMC, which means that we are potentially looking at a pretty aggressive move on Bitcoin today. And so obviously we're going to want to take advantage of that. Now I'm going to break it all down within this video. But just right before we get into it, if you're new here, welcome, my name is Xuan. I've been publicly documenting the success rate of these trade calls that I've been making here on YouTube over the last year and a half or so. And over the course of 200+ trades, we're sitting at around a 78% win rate. So all that means for you is that if you're here, chances are you're in the right place because I tend to be right a little bit more compared to when I'm wrong. But with That out of the way, it's time to get into the meat of this video. Now, just to kick things off on the daily chart, so far we're looking at a bearish bias. So technically for today, we're supposed to be looking for a short. Now, once we go into the lower time frames, you will also see that this confirms that we should be looking for bearishness. Now, full disclosure though, this week has been a little bit rough, just on the intraday, because like if we actually take a look at the price action, we've just kind of been thrown around like both to its like just really aggressive moves to the downside and really aggressive moves to the upside all within the same day. So just to explain what I mean here, like on Monday, we were like Monday, literally V-shaped recovery. Like this was really hard to trade even though I got the overall like kind of idea correct. I wasn't able to get into a trade purely because like this is pretty hard. Same thing for yesterday, we had down, up, and then followed by another down. So overall we're just looking at a lot of like, lack of a better word, like manipulative kind of price action. And it's only normal that sometimes when this happens we would get stopped out. And for me, for me yesterday, I also ended up getting stopped out. So Like if you guys have been struggling so far this week, like you're not alone. I have been as well. And hopefully though, today will be a different story. So let's just break down the trade setup. So, so far again, we've already been looking at a bearish day, gladus. And the moment you come down into the daily part, you will also— and the moment you come down into the hourly part, you will also notice that we are looking at inverted CIP here. So far this is kind of like low lows, low highs as well. The overall kind of order flow on the 1-hourly has already shifted towards the bearish direction. Now, this is the level that we want to be paying attention to, which is this prior block right here. The fact that we've got the CIC, which is this line, means that this now becomes a potential zone of resistance for prices to actually drop from. Now, not only that, but we also have another point of resistance right here on the one-hourly chart. So we've got a couple of carries that we can deal with. Now, obviously, this does not discount the fact that there is a potential that price will just drop from the— like, from this point onwards. If that happens, also give you the game plan for how to navigate this. But just so far, we are looking for a retracement back into either one of these resistance levels at a certain tiny level. And then we're going to be looking for a short towards the downside, most likely targeting this low over here and potentially even like further like towards the downside. This I cannot be certain of, but if we go into the daily chart, we can see that we do have a liquidity level over there. Now one of the things that's going to make the day a little bit harder to navigate as compared to like a regular week is the fact that if you recall from last week, is the fact that it report from like, right, I mentioned the fact that we are apparently operating within this range right now. So once the range lows have been swept, there is a pretty decent likelihood that we're actually going to go target the range highs. This was also my projection at the start of this week because we had a bullish weekly bias. I was actually expecting price to go towards the upside, towards this level right here. And so far, it's not to say that this cannot still be possible. This kind of adds a, you know, kind of point of uncertainty for our short today, considering that, okay, range lows are in sweat in terms of a macro perspective. So we're actually looking for price to continue going to the upside. So that's the only thing to keep in mind. So just to explain what's happening right now, we're in a situation where we can make a case that price is actually going to head towards the downside, but we can also make an argument for the fact that price is actually going to head towards the upside. Now, in a situation like this, the playbook is actually super simple, which is the fact that Whatever we're looking at on the higher timeframe right now is purely based on our inning and also it's the higher timeframe. But in terms of the videos that we're making right here, we are actually looking to trade on an intraday basis, which usually means that our trades take a grand total of a couple of hours to both enter as well as exit. So a lot of what happens on the higher timeframe here, yes, it's good to keep in mind, but chances are it's also not going to affect us in terms of what we're doing here on the intraday. But still, it's good to keep in mind. So that we can, you know, be prepared in case if there are any failure points throughout the trade for the day. But with that step, with that being said though, into the higher timeframe, it's not like we're just going to go long right now because like we're very, we're getting very close to a sell-side liquidity right here. And also again, the hourly has already confirmed like bearish order flow and stuff like that. So if even if we do go long here, you're just going to be running into a lot of resistance. Now I'm not saying that this is absolutely impossible. I'm just saying this is a lower probability outcome, right? Chances are it's less likely to happen. So with that said though, earlier on I mentioned that there was a specific timing that you're gonna wanna look for this trade. And essentially there are two timings for today. Now, why is there two timings? Oh, that's because today we are looking at FOMC. Now this is a news event that happens at 2:00 PM New York time. Now, if you know anything about news, it's that you understand most news tends to come in the morning of New York session. So 10:00 AM, as you can see right here, that's 8:30 AM as well. So it's not often that we get a news event happening at 2 PM. Now the reason why this matters is because the system that I'm using right now and the system that I've used making a decently high success rate on the last year and a half or so for Bitcoin is that we trade during a kill zone or during a news session. So the kill zone in the New York, the New York kill zone in this case is gonna be 7 AM to 10 AM New York time. But if it's today, we also have news at 2 PM. It means that we have another kill zone to take advantage of. So we're going to be looking for a trade either between the kind of like initial morning New York kill zone, 7 to 10, or but also if that trade setup does not show itself during the New York morning session, we also know that, okay, the hour leading up to news and the hour after news is a very high probability zone. So basically from 1 PM to 3 PM New York, that's where you need to execute. Me personally, I'm not going to be touching that because I'm currently in Asia and like that's going to be happening at like what, 3 AM my time. So I'm going to be asleep by then. So the overall idea is that we're looking for two scenarios, right? One I've already shared with you earlier. If you retrace back into this level and you start heading towards the downside, you're going to look for this sometime during the New York morning kill zone or during news. Now the second scenario I may want to account for is if price just continues to put in like really strong bearish momentum, in which case we're just going to be taking advantage of that throughout the day. But there's such a common misconception in the trading space where, okay, if I miss the retracement entry, right, and if price just continues going towards the downside, if you start getting into highs while it's going to the downside, almost feels like you're late, but that couldn't be further from the truth. If anything, like some of my most successful trades that I've ever taken, which is taken when prices clearly confirmed some direction of momentum and I'm just hopping onto the train that's already moving and getting off at a later stop. So the way this is going to look like, it's okay, price is very— is super bearish. We have a target for begin, which is down $61,300, and so we have further targets down below at around $60,000 and even $57,800. Now, assuming that price continues to put in bearish momentum, we're just going to be selling low and then buying back lower, which is kind of how shorting works. By the time you watch this video, assuming that price is already kind of heading towards the downside, then like, yeah, just take advantage of that. And especially once you get in through that new kill zone, just utilize the 5-minute order flow to just kind of get into new entries. Like, just to give you an example right now, this is a new bearish order block that formed on 5-minute chart. And I'm not saying this is a blanket take that this is how it's going to look like. You get a new 5-minute order block, and then when price reverses into the order block, you place You basically just utilize the order block. And even if I just set the target here at 61,300, you'll see that the target is, you know, 1.8 risk to reward. Similarly, if I were to, you know, quote unquote, get the optimal entry, let's say I get like, I get an entry here and I, you know, manage to place my stop loss here and I risk it all the way down here. You can see like this is inferior in terms of risk to reward, right? Even though I got the much higher probability entry or like the more perfect entry, I actually make less money on this as compared to just taking a simple Nike trade. So the only thing that I would ask you to be careful when it comes to this method is the fact that once you get down into this level, right, by the time you watch this video, if we're already here, the thing you want to be careful of is if you get a candle close beneath this level right here, which is at $61,000-some country dollars. Now this is a candle body right here, and if you do get a candle close on the 1-hour chart below this level, this will kind of confirm another just instance of bearish order flow. Now if you get that, then 100% we're just going to be looking for a short or just all the way for a set outside. But if you just get a quick liquidity sweep, right, kicking out this level, and then without a candle close, price just kind of start— but the thing that you want to be careful of and thing that you want to look for is that in the event that price accept this liquidity level and it starts showing signs that it's going to bounce towards the upside, you will be able to read this on the 5-minute chart. Then you want to be very careful because what is potentially going to happen at this stage is that price is just going for the bullish sweep followed by a move towards the outside. It's the same type of move that we've seen all throughout this week where, for example, on Monday, right, there was— this is the range low that I kind of talked about, and this was the liquidity sweep that I talked about. Once you swept out the liquidity, boom, you go all the way back to the upside in a V-shaped recovery. And right now we're kind of operating in a very similar situation here, where this is the 1-hourly chart. This is the range low, so this is the range high, and the bears are digging up the range low while it's itself heading towards the range high. The way you'll be halving could be on the altcoins. And as usual, like, feel free to just follow me on X, where I'll be posting any of my free updates. Like if I do get into a trade, I'll share my entries and my stops and everything. This is how, you know, I am publicly documenting my, you know, success rate when it comes to these calls. And like, yeah, yeah, some update to the Banzai Sickness Group or whatever. Now if throughout this entire video, um, I feel like my, like my explanation is kind of all over the place, like you guys will know this doesn't usually happen. Usually, you know, pretty straightforward, it's pretty clear-cut. But do you get the feeling that I'm kind of all over the face? There are a few things that are kind of happening right now. One is that I can kind of make an argument where it is a high timeframe, this is what I'm looking for, which is towards the upside, but it's a lower timeframe, 30-point move to the downside, right? So there's a bit of a mismatch. And this is one of the toughest situations for a trader to kind of navigate because you need to kind of weigh which one's more likely. Whereas, you know, the easiest trades and the best trades that we further trade in are just like, okay, 5-minute timeframe is pointing down, lower timeframe is pointing down, great, you can search for it. But today, through the dissonance, right, the fact this entire research part Even though we are applying the x2 and even though BuzzGyrp higher theme, the results have just not been favorable. And that's because we're just kind of in a rage mode. And if you know anything about the system, it's that this system tends to struggle when we are in a rage, right? Primarily it's meant for a system. So it's not necessarily to say that this system sucks or whatever, it's just African nations being not the best for this particular system that we're using. So the way that I'm going to be mentoring you is good, eh? Is a, like, you're going to look for the exact confirmations that I've talked about all throughout this video. And again, I will be posting the entries whenever I do get into them, but I will be very cautious, right? I'm going to be waiting for more confirmations than usual because again, like, it just feels kind of— I can take it on both sides, I do fudged it. If the range low here gets whacked, we might be looking at a, we might be looking at a move back towards the upside. But even if we get a move back towards the upside, it's like we're going to be running into so much bearish resistance. It's not a trade that I would take anyways, but everything else is kind of pointing towards the downside at the moment. And after taking And like essentially after taking out this range low, the next kind of like key liquidity level is going to be quite a ways down the ladder. Even if we just not look at this from the daily perspective and just kind of zoom lower, like the next major liquidity point is going to be at $16,000. So I'm expecting price to drop all the way to $16,000 today. I don't know, right? FOMC, anything could happen. But this also kind of goes into conflict with what we kind of observed on the daily chart where, okay, price is really in a range right now. We've had other range lows, very likely that we're going to the range highs. The only possible scenario that I can see right now where like any of my concerns just gets like invalidated is the fact that if you draw a fib from the low of the range to current range high that we formed, so basically up here, the— once this liquidity gets taken out at $61,000, we'll actually tap into the discount zone of the range, which if you know anything about premium discount, you want to look to buy during a discount and you want to sell during premium. So this is basically like a Fibonacci retracement level or whatever., and this would actually make sense. For today, I think realistically we may see $60,000. It also adds up with this book shorter clocked kit. So essentially we're taking trade today targeting either this low or just around $60,000, and then we head towards the upside, right? So this is gonna be exactly what I'm looking for. But again, I'll share any confirmations when I do get them. And just one final note, giveaway closes in about 48 hours, so make sure you sign up before, you know, it ends. And also just quick apologies if I appear like I've been, I might just be all over the place today. Um, today's sake is But for some reason, my thoughts just aren't flowing as cleanly today, and like, I just haven't been as on point. But if you're here at this point so far, like, I appreciate you sticking around even through all of this kind of like rambling. Claris is going to have a lot of work later to do. But otherwise, yeah, I'll see you guys later on X and also in tomorrow's video. Stay cute.