Bitcoin's daily chart looks bearish, but the 1-hour shows higher highs and lows with an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern setting up. Best trading window is 7 am to 11 am around two news events, targeting 2R-3R on entries into fair-value gaps and order blocks.
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What's good, guys? Welcome back to another video. Such a funny way the trade yesterday happened because we had our initial entry here, we ended up getting stopped out, and then the price moved straight to the TP, which is a bit unfortunate, but it's also part of the game. At least the thought process was correct, and I really hope, like, some of you at least managed to catch the move. But otherwise, like, let's get into the trade setup for today, which, based on what I'm seeing so far, is a little less straightforward but at the same time pretty straightforward. Let me explain. So kicking things off with the daily bias, it is technically supposed to be a bearish daily bias, which means we're technically supposed to be looking for a bearish trade. But at the same time, the moment you go onto 1-hourly chart is when it starts to illuminate a different kind of picture. Because so far the market has been forming higher highs and higher lows. And if you remember what I mentioned yesterday is that we ultimately got the range breakout, price retraced into the order block, and then that was the pump, right, for continuation. That was the setup that we had in mind yesterday. And we again tried to take advantage of it, but ultimately we ended up getting stopped out before hitting the TP. So overall, the idea is already there. So based on this, you can also argue that on the daily chart, this bearish candle over here is just a retrace back into this order block so that price can continue heading towards the upside. And when you zoom out a little bit, you can start to see how this resembles an accumulation/reversal pattern where you have an inverse head and shoulders over here where price is now ultimately breaking out of. Secondly, you've gotten the first bullish daily CISD in basically the last like 2 to 3 months. Like, just to give you some context, the last time we got a bullish CSD was all the way back here on the 13th of January. So for the past month and a half, we only had bearish changes in delivery. We only had bearish order flow throughout the daily chart. Yesterday was— oh, sorry, 2 days ago was the first time in the last 1 month and a half we got a bullish CSD. Does this mean that the bottom is in and that we're going to go for a full-on reversal? It's a bit early to tell right now. Now, if today's candle manages to close above this level right here, 70,000, like 70,500, yes, we may be starting to look at a start of some sort of a bullish reversal where the bottom could technically— you could argue that the bottom is in and we can trade bullish for the foreseeable future. Now, that has not yet happened. So in terms of the macro perspective, or like just a slightly longer-term perspective, I'm not going to say that the bottom is in yet. But at least for today, hopefully that paints a pretty clear picture on what direction we should be trading in today, which is towards the bullish side. So Yesterday's candle, we're going to ignore the daily bias, and today we're going to be looking for longs instead, just because of how not only can we paint a very clear narrative on the daily chart where this could be some sort of a bottom formation, but secondly, in terms of the 1-hour chart, like, yeah, you know, this is pretty clearly going into the bullish direction. And so, yeah, let's get into the trade setup for today. Now, initially, before the London session, I was already looking for a breakout above the Asia highs if possible, and ultimately we have gotten that. So as we head into New York today, the setup is going to be very straightforward where we're just going to look for a retracement into some prior-formed fair value gaps. In this case, it will be here, the first fair value gap that we can take advantage of, and the second one right here. And the second fair value gap tends to align with that previous order block. So a retracement into either one of these hourly PD arrays is going to give us an opportunity to take a trade towards the upside, very similar to what we had yesterday, where initially you got that breakout, right? You got that change in order flow in the 1-hourly, and then you retraced back into some sort of a key level. In this case, it was this bullish order block,, and then you have trend continuation. So it's going to be a very similar setup for today. Retracement here, up. Now, as for what time you should expect, rather what time you should look for this to happen, it is going to be between the hours of 7 AM all the way up to 11 AM. Why? Because we have a couple of news events, and if you know anything about this trading system, is that the ideal trading times for the system, or when I say ideal, it's just that when you trade within these times, you are going to have the highest likelihood of getting a winning trade. That is going to be the news window, basically an hour before news to an hour after news. Now, If there was one piece of news that I would likely prioritize over the other, I would say, like, if you don't want to be in front of the charts from 7 AM all the way to 11 AM, the ideal trading time is going to be prioritizing that second news event. Because oftentimes what happens on a Wednesday when we have two pieces of news right next to each other, that the true move tends to happen at around that 10 AM window. Now, am I saying that it's guaranteed to be 10 AM? No, I'm just saying, like, based on statistical, you know, probability, likelihood, whatever, It's more likely that the 9 AM to 11 AM window is going to be much more— you're going to be much more likely to not only get a trade, but to get a trade that plays out in your favor. Now, in the event that it happens at around 8 AM, I will be there. Like, I will be here on X. Now, in the event when a trade setup does show itself, I am going to be posting all of the live executions onto Twitter. So feel free to follow me there if you haven't already. Like, this is where I ended up posting the trade setup from yesterday. Again, got stopped out, but like, the overall kind of like read on the market was still correct. Although again, I'm counting that as a loss based on my, you know, public track record. But otherwise, yeah, all of the executions are going to be live on Twitter. It's not going to be gated behind some signals groups or whatever. Although if I end up posting to Twitter a little bit late today, it will be because that I am running a live trading call with the bootcamp members where we're going to be live trading the markets together. Either way, setup on Bitcoin is pretty straightforward. Let's take a look at potential targets because, you know, in the event that we are expecting a bullish continuation, then yeah, it's going to be pretty obvious what the target is going to be. Is just going to be prior liquidity levels, which in this case you're actually quite close to that liquidity level already. So I think instead of setting like liquidity targets, it will be much better to just enter a trade and then target for 2R to 3R based on whatever that risk to reward is. So basically, like, let's say on paper, like, oh, theoretically speaking, all right, this is the entry that we get. We take the first profit at 2R and then the second profit at potentially 3R. And that's going to be the way that you trade the markets for today. And the reason why this works is because we have already established the fact that the market is now in bullish market structure. It's in bullish order flow. Assuming that the market continues on with, you know, this bullish market structure, it also means that you are very likely to form new higher highs. So basically, right now we're already at a higher high. So by the time you retrace back into this, a reasonable target is to expect the market to form a higher high somewhere. Now, one of the other ways that you can use to identify new potential targets is, for example, if we were to go back to past examples just to illustrate this concept for you, is that price breaks out of a range you can see from this low to this high was the previous range. When price expands out of it, it tends to go in, you know, 0.5 to 1 increments. So this 1 basically means an expansion of 1 standard deviation, which means whatever this range is, you multiply it by 1, and that is going to be the measured move. So we can apply a very similar kind of logic into this move, for example, where price is currently already hitting the -1 standard deviation. In the event that it retraces back into here, you're just going to draw a Fib from wherever the bottom is to wherever the top is, and then you're going to look for a minus 1 standard deviation. That's another way where in a case where, you know, for example, like today, we are already so close to the liquidity level, and if we take a look at the daily chart, there's not really too much else in terms of liquidity levels that we can use to target. This is a very high probability way of just setting some targets based on, you know, measured moves. And this is again rooted in how the market makers like to, you know, deliver measured moves in the markets. It's not necessarily based on Fibonacci, but more so on standard deviations, which again is the way that the market makers like to do things. So it's rooted in sound logic. But other than that, let's take a look at Ethereum just to see if Ethereum could be more worthwhile for a long. And the immediate answer is going to be yes and no. Yes, because the targets for Ethereum are a little bit further away compared to Bitcoin. But at the same time, if you take a look at the Bitcoin chart and the Ethereum chart side by side, Bitcoin is showing a lot more strength compared to Ethereum. So in this case, when you run into a situation where you have a pair that is clearly showing more stronger kind of like bullish direction, you want to prioritize that pair when it comes to longs. Now, in the event that we are looking for a short today, then we would most likely be leaning towards Ethereum because it's relatively weaker compared to Bitcoin. That's the way that I would approach it. But either way, if you are interested in trading Ethereum, like, feel free to go ahead. It's just going to be a very similar setup where, you know, you're about to confirm that CSD on the 1-hourly chart. So it's just returning back into the fair value gap or the order block. In for continuation that way. Now, the third way, or rather the third asset that we're going to look at today, is going to be Solana. I will also mention a couple of forex pairs later because there are a couple of forex pairs that are looking exceptionally clean today. So in terms of Solana, you are most likely about to confirm that daily CSD. Again, with Bitcoin, you've already confirmed that bullish CSD on the daily chart, but with Solana and Ethereum, you have not. Hence why I say, you know, relatively speaking, it is a little bit weaker. But Solana is definitely looking stronger compared to Ethereum, just Just because at the very least you can see, like, just purely based on, you know, eyeballing it, it is looking a lot stronger compared to Ethereum. And again, same setup, like, that's a bullish order block and that's a bullish fair value gap, retrace, continuation. And the ideal time that you want to look for this is around that news window. And when you get that 5-minute CSD around that news window, that is when you get into the trade. Very straightforward so far. Now let's take a look real quick at a couple of forex pairs that I've identified a very, very nice setup. And the first one's going to be USD/CAD. Now Not only have you tapped into this higher timeframe TD array, like this higher timeframe daily fair value gap, your daily bias is bearish as well. And secondly, you have a very clear formation of some sort of a head and shoulders pattern, which is, if you know anything about patterns, it's a bit of a distribution pattern, and your distribution usually means downside. Not only that, but you have confirmed a bearish CSD at the 2 AM London open. So now that that has happened, technically you could already get into a trade here, but basically you're just going to want to look for a further breakdown, like by the time you watch this video and by the time we get into that news window, you're going to want to look for a candle close beneath this level right here at 1.366. And once that happens, it's just continuation towards the downside. This is looking exceptionally clean. And in terms of USD/CAD, you actually have a very solid target at 1.3625, which is basically about 50 pips away from where current price is, which is not too much of a stretch to hit within the same day because, well, 50 pips— Forex pairs move 50 pips easily within a day. And especially on a news day. And the second pair that you can look at, and by the way, the like the TP has already been hit. I was doing a live trading session with the bootcamp members just now for the London session. And like, yeah, this is already hit. Basically Asia accumulation, London sweeps below the Asia low, filling in some sort of an hourly PD array, and then towards the upside you go. Now either way, the setup that is going to be relevant for you today is you have a bullish daily bias, which means you're going to be looking for a short— sorry, you're going to be looking for a long. And by the time you watch this video, this is already a new bullish order block, basically returning back into this bullish order block and then continuation towards the upside. So you have— not only do you have a clear setup on Bitcoin, but you also have clear setups on Forex. By the way, speaking about these live trading sessions, I'm about to host a free one here on YouTube. Like, I'm going to be live streaming it. We're going to spend a couple of days together and going to live trade 2 days in a row. If you're interested in that, like, keep an eye out for— like, if you're subscribed to the newsletter, keep an eye out for that because we're going to make the announcement real soon. It's going to be free to attend. And if you're not on the newsletter yet, what are you doing? Click the first link down in the description box below. But otherwise, I'll see you guys tonight on X. Ciao ciao.
