bitcoin: dump incoming?

What's good, guys? Welcome back to another video. So yesterday we were looking for a bullish trade and yesterday we were looking for a bullish CISP sometime during the New York morning. But what we ended up getting is just fully bearish. Now, one of the positive things that got out of yesterday, even though it was a no trade, is that because we closed the day so bearishly yesterday, today is going to be, I think, a little bit more straightforward. And another thing to keep in mind is that not only do we have news today, we have 5 pieces of news all coming at around that 8:30 AM window. And so I I think today is potentially going to be a bit of an A+ day. Well, I've been saying this for the last couple of days now. The first day we ended up getting a trade, but we ultimately got stopped. And for yesterday, even though we had A+ conditions, you know, things didn't end up playing out. But today, regardless, I'm still going to give you the setup for today so that you know what to prepare for. And like, yeah, let's get into it. So starting off on the daily chart, we are looking bearish so far. And going down into the 1-hourly chart, we can see that we are very clearly in bearish order flow. The only two levels that we want to be kind of like watching out for today is literally these relatively equal highs over here, as well as the fact that, you know, we already have a bullish— sorry, a bearish CSD confirmed. So by the time you watch this video, the ultimate kind of confirmation is going to be a candle close on the 1-hourly chart below 70,400. If you get that, you're going to be looking at a very easy, straightforward short. Now obviously, you're going to want to be looking for this roughly around the time that the New York kind of news event starts. So basically starting from 7:30 AM all the way to 8:30, because the way this works is you have a news window, which is You know, an hour before the news is when, you know, moves are going to start happening. This is the high probability zone. And once the news drops, then you're going to expect a lot of volatility heading into it to complete the move. That is how I usually like to explain the news window. And one thing's for sure, system performs exceptionally— well, sorry, it performs a lot better when there is news versus when there isn't news. And today is one of those news days. We have a clear daily bias, we have a clear hourly bias, we have a clear daily bias, we have very clear hourly alignment. And all that's left to do is to go into the 5-minute chart to see what is going on. So the only kind of like point of concern that I would have about today is the fact that the Asia high has not yet been swept. Now, usually on a bearish day like this, I really appreciate, or like one of the things that increases the win rate of the system is if the Asia high has already been swept. Why? Because, well, above the Asia high is essentially liquidity that the market makers and the institutions have left behind. In the event that you sweep it out, including this like couple of relative equal highs over here, it just sets the market up in a way where, all right, there is no longer any target above. So all that remains is to drop. And that is the logic behind it. The fact that we did not see it today is a tiny bit concerning, but at the same time, if we get that hourly close below, I think it's still just going to set us up for a beautiful continuation move. After all, like, if you traded the markets at all and if you understand liquidity concepts at all, you know that people talk about, oh yeah, this liquidity has to be swept, or like, this liquidity has to be swept before any moves happen. But the reality is the market is going to do what it's going to do, and it's important to just kind of like adapt as you go. Now, Obviously, this would be the A++ kind of scenario, but this is still very much valid as well. So regardless of what the market gives us, we're just going to take it anyways. So the only kind of like point of concern here is the fact that if you get an hourly close above 71,200, that would be kind of like a bullish CUSD or a potential bullish CUSD, at least an early one on a 1-hourly chart. And it will kind of throw off the hourly alignment with the 5-minute as well as the daily. So ideally, I think it's just going to be a quick sweep if it happens., and then you're going to look for a 5-minute CIC towards the downside, again, within that news window. Now, in the event that you get this, this is also, again, fully valid. One of the things that I, you know, one of the comments that I actually saw on X yesterday, which, you know, I totally understand where this guy is coming from, and potentially, like, if you're watching this video, you are well aware that this system has been struggling for the better part of the last couple of months, right? February has been my worst month to date since I started tracking, you know, my trades ever since last February. And January has been okay, not the best, but it hasn't been the best either. Now, it wasn't terrible, as bad as, you know, February, of course. But like, not only has the system like gave us a lot less, you know, kind of like trade frequency, meaning like just the amount of trade setups possible are just, you know, lesser. But at the same time, even when there are trade setups, you know, we've been ending up getting stopped out a little bit more than usual. I mean, I mean, like, case in point, if you take a look at the data, like throughout the entirety of 2025, I had 35 losses, like total out of 165 trades. And it's only been 2 months into this year, but I've already accrued kind of like 6 losses. And so far the win rate has been great throughout this year. Now what I'm about to say is what I think the reason why this is happening, like excuses aside, right, just market conditions aside, like the reason why I bring this up is to not only explain what could potentially be the reason why this is happening, but also the solution when you run into situations like this. Because the truth is there is going to be, you know, stretches of weeks, potentially months, where your trading is going to take a dip, and it's important in that moment to determine exactly what is going on. So the two reasons why, you know, people— like, the two most common reasons why people run into some sort of a just kind of like slump when it comes to trading is: A, market conditions are just not suited to the system. For example, this is a trend trading system, meaning it performs the best when the market is in some sort of a trend. If you take a look at the price action for the entirety of February, it's, it's been in a range, right? And I've been, I've been saying this multiple times throughout February, like this is going to be a market condition where it struggles. Eventually we are going to break out of a range. Right now we're breaking out of this range and eventually like there will come a time when the range traders are going to start to struggle and this system is going to start to thrive again. So market conditions is not really something that we can control. Now the core thing to understand about, you know, market conditions being an issue is that A, it's not your fault. B, you can't really control it. And C, and the way that you kind of overcome this is number one, to try your best not to lose money or just try to force setups when there aren't any setups. Because last month was the lowest. Like, look, I took a total of 5 trades last month, right? It's 2 wins and 3 losses. Not great compared to an average month where I would have a trade frequency of like anywhere between 10 to 15. This is a lot lower. Well, why? Because I am able to identify that, you know, most of the days are not giving me a setup. And in that case, I'm just going to remain patient. I'm going to remain disciplined because your only job as a trader is to take a trade when the conditions within your system are met and to not trade when conditions in your system aren't met, right? So Number one is to just survive the period so that you can thrive when the good periods come along. Now, the second kind of solution to this problem is to explore different asset classes. Throughout this entire point, Bitcoin, yes, it has been struggling. But take a look at gold. Gold has been trending. Like, even though you are going through a retracement, you are still very much trending. Even if you take a look at the euro, for example, it is trending. If you take a look at even stuff like Australian-US dollar, or even if you take a look at stuff like the USD-JPY, right? Very, very clear trends that you can take advantage of the system. I guess the point that I'm trying to make is that it's not necessarily that the system is struggling. It's more like, again, like what I've already mentioned for the past month. These are just not conditions where the system thrives in. And at this point, like, I do think that this will change soon because Bitcoin has already broken out and it's only a matter of time. Like, Casey, like, I do think next, starting next week, right now you're just going through a bit of a retracement and right now you're coming back into the range. But starting next week and for the rest of this month, I think this is going to happen. Now, I could be wrong.. But even if this doesn't happen, you're going to have a very clear movement towards the range low and to continue the overall bearish movement that is being shown on Bitcoin at the moment. The thing is, the only thing you need to understand, this system struggles in this. December is also a very terrible month for, you know, the system in general. Why? Take a look at this. Now the system thrives. Now, for example, if you guys remember from back in November, we had— we made a killing. Not only was I making videos every single day, like also like trading it on X and calling wins, but back then we had this thing called a VIP group where I was just taking a group of like 100 people and I was live trading with them every single day. And the majority of them made back their money within like a couple of trades and most of them made back the investment within a couple of weeks. So like that was just top tier stuff. Those were just market conditions that, you know, are great for the system. And when those times come, you make a killing so that when stuff like this happens, so that when the market conditions become like this, you're not tempted to try to force something because, oh yeah, you know, I need to, I need to make money. If you do need to make money, which, you know, it's understandable, we're all trading here so that we can make a consistent income. Maybe try diversifying your asset classes. The system works the same, if not better, on traditional assets. We're talking like forex, we're talking indices, we're talking metals, we're talking commodities, whatever. As long as there is a chart. Now, while I haven't quite tested this on stocks, and I don't think that this would work on stocks because the market kind of opens at like 9:30 and it closes at around 4:00 PM, which makes kill zones and news, all of this stuff, like really hard to kind of like apply. But for the majority of the other assets, it works really nicely. It works really cleanly. And it's a lot less kind of like daunting than you would initially think, right? Most of the time before you get into forex, you're like, oh, it's a completely different platform. It's completely different like terminologies. It looks different. Of course, you're going to be intimidated. Completely understandable. But at the same time, like someone who's been like taking the leap away from crypto and, you know, just started diversifying a little bit into traditional assets, it's a lot less difficult than you think. All it requires is like an hour of your time to kind of familiarize yourself with the platforms, with the various terminologies. And I trust that most of you watching this have a really high IQ. In fact, I do think that we are one of the more sophisticated channels. Like, I would like to think so. One of the more sophisticated channels in all of crypto, where it's not just like, oh, yo, Bitcoin's going to go to zero, buy this, buy that. Like, it's more logical and we're more analytical. Like, as far as crypto is concerned, I do think that we're more of an analytical audience, if that makes sense. So yeah, hopefully that kind of like alleviates your concerns. And I know it's not easy to go through phases like this, but the fact of the matter is that this is not something that we can control. Market's going to do what it's going to do. There are going to be amazing months, and there are going to be like rougher months. And the important thing is simply to identify when you're in a good month, so you go balls to the walls and like go like spend 8 hours on the chart or whatever. And on months where, you know, nothing's really showing itself, yeah, just relax, smoke a cigar, you know, have some coffee, whatever. You get the idea. But anyways, now that that spiel is over, let's take a look at Ethereum real quick. Now, Ethereum, on the other hand, you have gotten that CSD, you have swept the range high, but the problem compared to Bitcoin is that this is a much stronger range breakout, at least, you know, relatively speaking. Either way, we're still going to be looking for a short today because, well, Ethereum's going to move the same way as Bitcoin anyways. So right now you're looking for a candle close underneath that level. Have you already got it? Not really. So you're going to be looking for a candle close underneath $2,059 basically. And again, same exact setup. Price is at the moment retracing back into this bearish order block. Same thing on Bitcoin, by the way. Like, this entire thing is now a bearish order block. And like, if I were to just move this block right, that like this entire block is already resistance. And so you're just going to be looking for continuation to the downside. Now, as far as Solana is concerned, we are looking at a range breakout as well, but bearish daily bias. So coming down into the 1-hourly chart, what you don't want to see on Solana today is a candle close on the 1-hourly chart above $89. But otherwise, this entire block is going to be resistant and you're just going to be trading this towards the downside. And as usual, if I'm going to be taking any trades, I'm going to be posting it to X. You can counter that. But otherwise, like, yeah, the rough periods are about to be over. I do think we're about to go into like slightly better periods. Now, I cannot predict exactly when that will happen, but just purely based on understanding how markets like to move from periods of low volatility, i.e., ranges, to periods of high volatility, i.e., expansions, impulses, whatever you want to call it. We've spent the last month in basically a range, and it's only a matter of time until the breakout happens. And when it happens, it's going to be glorious. And all we need to do is to play it safe, be disciplined, continue executing the system without, you know, losing safe, like, because the system's not broken. We already, I've already kind of told you guys this, like, it is going to struggle in ranging market conditions. All that remains is to, you know, continue executing the system the way we have, and eventually those profits are going to come rolling in. And yeah, just a hard reality of trading, and yet it is what it is. Hopefully this teaches you a lesson at least, where, you know, there are going to be rough ones. But otherwise, yeah, I'll see you guys later, and stay tuned on the newsletter. We are going to be making that announcement of the live trading floor really, really soon. In fact, I'm really even thinking about like redoing what I did in November. I basically take a group of 100 and 200 people like for a month. We're just going to live trade every day together. You're going to get full access to me at a price point that's absolutely ridiculous, at a price point that is like far below what it should be. In fact, I'm even thinking about redoing the VIP experience that I did back in November where I basically take like 100 to 200 people. We live trade together for like a month at a price point that is more than reasonable. If that sounds like something you might be interested in, by the way, Feel free to drop a comment. I would love to just like gauge the interest you guys have in something like this. I know the past VIP members would be thrilled to do this again just because of how like— but otherwise, yeah, have a good weekend. Stay tuned on the newsletter and I'll see you guys later on X. Ciao ciao.