Bitcoin & Ethereum: Patience Is About To Pay

In yesterday's video, we drew out this exact scenario on bitcoin and currently it looks like it is playing out, although not fully yet in this video. I'm going to give you guys the update on Bitcoin as well as Ethereum because we also drew another scenario which seems like it's playing out at the moment. Before we get into it, if you guys want a free email course delivered straight to your email for free, click the first link in the description box below. But otherwise, let's get into bitcoin. So yesterday, the scenario that we pointed out was that we wanted to see these relatively equal lows get taken out. It is not very obvious on the four hourly chart because indeed you cannot see it. But when you go onto the one hourly chart, this is how it looks like. You have a low that was formed here, a low that was formed here, as well as a low that was formed here. These are relatively equal lows before, even though bitcoin was looking, you know, kind of bearish, we advise against shorting bitcoin because you had 1, 2, 3 relatively equal highs back here. That would act as a draw on liquidity, similar to how when we were looking at bitcoin before, where we had this bearish change in state of delivery, as well as a market maker sell model, that's your initial consolidation, first leg, second leg, and eventually price started breaking down. But the reason why I suggested against going short just yet is because you have these relatively equal highs here, they act as a drawn liquidity. Essentially what that means is that retail traders are usually going to be looking at this level and be like, oh, this is quote unquote strong resistance because price got rejected from here three times. And yet the difference between a, you know, quote unquote resistance that you can trade from and a resistance that will eventually get blown through and just be a false signal in general is the fact that you have relatively equal lows. This would be much different if this high here would have taken out both of these highs first before breaking lower. If that was the case, then I would have 100% just said, hey, bitcoin's going lower and we're going to short right then and there. This is a similar concept that we're seeing play out once more. You have 1, 2, 3 relatively equal lows over here. And so we waited for this exact scenario where all of these are taken out first before we trade the reversal to the other side. Same thing here. Once these were taken, we wanted to see the price have a strong reaction to the downside before we started going into shorts. But then we also discussed the fact that the reason why we have now flipped bullish is because of the weekly close. Now, earlier on in this week, during the weekly open, we said that we wanted to look for bitcoin to dip underneath 82600 and to essentially go underneath the weekly open. Because the way that you trade weekly closes and even daily closes, or any time frame for that matter, is that every candle on any time frame has an open, high, low close. If you're bullish for this candle, then you want to look for buys below the open and you want to sell above the open. So essentially this is known as a concept. Now, this concept is known as the power of three. You buy below the open, sell above the open, and then heading into the weekly close. So that was the profile that we sort of drew out. And the reason why we were bullish is because you have swept this low on the weekly chart here and you failed to close below. The fact that you closed higher means that there are interested buyers in keeping price above this level. That's a really positive sign. It's also the reason why I said last week that there wasn't, you know, many a plus opportunities to be had on bitcoin. And the best move is to wait for next week instead. And this week so far, is this still playing out? Although we still have to take this very cautiously because again, on the weekly chart, yeah, sure. Like the weekly chart is still bullish, right? Because if you draw higher time frame, just structure. The structure sort of looks like this, which essentially means that price can literally just go up, down, left, right, inside, outside, whatever. As long as it doesn't break this low at 50k, you're overall still bullish. The fact that you're also in a weekly fair bit gap after forming a range means that, you know, this is potentially a really bullish time for bitcoin. I know it doesn't feel that way from the sentiment and the freelancing greed index as well as just, you know, overall what everybody is thinking about bitcoin. But I can tell you this the last time, or rather every time we get a range deviation. For example, here you sweep the range high and then you go all the way back to the range low. This time around, we can also draw a range that will be the range low. And currently you are accumulating below the range low, which is a really positive signal. If you take a look back at, you know, every single instance where this happened, that's your range low right There you take out the range low. You just accumulate for like three days, four days. This wouldn't even be accumulation, actually. This just looks like manipulation. And then off you go back in the direction of the trend. Similarly, here you had a six month, you know, consolidation from March to September. Ultimately, you swept the range low before reversing to the upside again. Once more, you have a range, you sweep the range, you go back to the range low, you go underneath the range low. Manipulation boom, back to the upside. And similarly, again, here you have a range that was formed here, you sweep the range low, accumulate it, and that mark the bear market bottom. So this is not a pattern that we haven't seen before. It's just, you know, we need to give it time for it to play out. And so the odds would suggest that overall, in a macro, we are pointing towards the upside. And now we just need to catch the right entry on the micro in order to take advantage of this macro movement. And that is going to come after we break above this blue block right here. Which means until we break above like $94,000, we cannot confidently say yet that, hey, bitcoin is indeed, without a shadow of a doubt, bullish. Until that happens, we cannot say that yet. But we can still try to position ourselves early for the eventual move that comes. The only caveat is that you need to remember that, that we need to play this cautiously because overall, in terms of the daily chart, if we just take a look at this leg here, we are overall in bearish order flow. That is a bearish order block that got broken below. Price came back into the bearish order block, got rejected. Boom, breaks below again. This becomes your new bearish order block. Price breaks below, comes up retests, fails to break above it. And so again, you are bearish. So far, Price has broken again. This blue block here is a bearish order block. Price broken below. Currently, you are retesting. So for all we know, this entire leg here could just be a retracement for Price to continue heading lower. So until this gets proven otherwise, we are going to play it cautiously. This does not mean that we cannot start hopping into longs. And the signal that I'm still waiting for, that we haven't yet confirmed, is a break above this level here at $84,700. This would basically confirm a broken base. So if we move over to the four hourly time frame, a broken base is essentially when you sweep a liquidity. So for instance, right here, this is a previous sing low. You sweep the liquidity and with one aggressive move, you break market structure to the upside. In this case, that's a swing low there. So this is a broken base. And again, we just want to see a second instance of the broken base because this would signal a double confirmation. What's a double confirmation? It's essentially two broken bases followed, well, happening, you know, consecutively after each other. That is one of the most, well, let's just say that is just one of the strongest signals that you can possibly have in, you know, all of trading. It doesn't happen very often, but when it does, you can be sure that this is a very high probability entry. This is known as an A setup. Your job as a trader is not necessarily to take a lot of trades. It's to be patient and sit on your hands until one of these A setups show itself and then you can start going in aggressively on that trade. And currently, the level that needs to be taken out in order to confirm this double confirmation is this level right here at 84700. We are currently only $1300 or like $1200 away from it. So we're actually pretty close by. We just want to see that happen before we jump into anything. This would also be, you know, your typical retail. You break out above the, you know, pattern and then coming back down for the retest, which I think will happen. And then ultimately you're going to go higher back into this resistance and again bearish until otherwise proven. Right now we just play cautiously. Still no setup. As of right now. You can potentially say that a on the one hourly chart you have a changes to a delivery right there. The series of up close candles just got closed above. So this technically is already like step one in a bullish reversal. In the event that you retrace into this bullish block here, you just want to look for PD arrays within this CISD block for areas of interest. For example, you have this further gap right here and a weak low. What is a weak low? It's a low that does not sweep liquidity. This low right here has swept out 1, 2, 3 levels of liquidity. So this is definitely a strong low. Which means that you do not anticipate this low getting retested if you are overall bullish. If you're bearish, of course, then you're just going to, you know, continue lower. But if you're bullish, you want to trade into strong lows. Similarly, you know, back when I recommended not to take a short from here, it's because these are a series of weak lows, otherwise known as relatively equal highs. Sorry, weak highs, not weak lows. And same thing here, we want to be trading into strong lows. In this case, we already have that. And currently this is a weak low. And so a potential other setup is something like this, right? So in the event that you retrace into this area, you can start to look for a long with a stop loss underneath. I know these are relatively equal lows, but the fact that this is overall a strong low gives me a really positive sign. And that's a easy to r trade right there on Bitcoin. But overall, again, just macro. We are very bullish micro. We just want to play it cautiously and wait for the a setup to present itself and then we're in. Things can happen more rather things can move really quickly once that, you know, A plus setup is confirmed. So if you want to see more updates on this based on the smart money perspective on bitcoin, then subscribe and turn on the bell notification. Otherwise, now we move on to Ethereum. Now, Ethereum is kind of opposite, right? Because when we look at Ethereum, Bitcoin, it has quite literally been on a downtrend against Bitcoin for the past three years. Actually four years, right, since, let's see here, December of 2021. So for three and a half years, Ethereum has been underperforming compared to Bitcoin. You would have been much better off holding Bitcoin during this entire period compared to Ethereum. Does that mean that this is over for Ethereum? Why am I talking about Ethereum? Ethereum's dead. Like there's no point considering Ethereum. Well, I do think that there is, you know, reason to have, you know, one final little hope. And in this case you might be wondering, like, why am I even considering Ethereum? Well, I'm not really considering Ethereum in terms of the bullish side because right now, if you take a look at the daily chart, in fact, let's start off on the weekly chart. You have a bearish candle close compared to Bitcoin's bullish candle close. Which means that in terms of the weekly bias and the higher traffic bias, we just want to actually short Ethereum compared to Bitcoin. It is definitely looking much weaker. And a setup for this can be present once we move onto the daily chart where we have this February gap over here as well as 1, 2 and 3 relatively equal highs. Right? It's the exact same setup that we talked about on Bitcoin. One high, two high, three high, and Right now, four highs. So eventually this highs, all of these highs are going to get swept. If you're already in a short, just expect that Ethereum is going to sweep these highs, fill in the FE gap before heading to the downside. Now this is not a guarantee also because what we want to see after the sweep of the in fair value gap is that you want to see a change in the state of delivery, meaning you want to see price break underneath this low right here at 1875 or perhaps 1860. This will really confirm that hey Ethereum is bearish. And a retrace into this block right here is going to give you the short signal that you need to trade Ethereum lower. So as it stands right now, Ethereum is also in a no trade zone. But I think we are getting close to the point where we can start trading Ethereum. To the downside though, again similar to Bitcoin, you are overall in a downtrend until proven otherwise. So just play cautiously. If I'm looking for longs I would definitely prioritize Bitcoin just because of how Ethereum Bitcoin has, is just showing absolutely no sign of going back to the upside. Yeah sure on a four hourly you can say that's a, you know, rounded bottom but still like just take a look at the daily chart. This looks horrible if you take a look at the weekly chart. It also looks horrible if you take a look at the monthly chart. Technically kind of still in an uptrend but still it's going to take a little bit more time for Ethereum to confirm any sort of just bullish sentiment. Come back to Bitcoin. And so this is the one that I'm going to prioritize. And again if you want a trading course delivered straight to your email for free teaching the things that I'm talking about in this video, it's the first thing in the description box below. Otherwise I'll see you guys in the next one. Bye bye.