bitcoin: fake pump (time to short?)

What's good guys, welcome back to another video. Literally just checked into the Airbnb here in Seoul and dropped my bags and headed straight into recording to make this video for you guys. And like, yeah, rate the setup. I think this apartment is pretty nice, uh, in the sense that, yeah, it almost feels like this entire space was made for just recording. So that's a So that's a good thing, I guess. But otherwise, yeah, going to be spending a few weeks here in Seoul. And let's get into the video for today, considering that I've already missed one from yesterday. Like, just to dive straight into it. Now, I am also looking at the charts at the same time as you guys are. Like, this is the first time today that I'm looking at a chart. So like, yeah, I'm going to try to bring you guys through exactly what I see in the exact order that I see it. And I'll explain why I'm seeing these things. So what I like to do every single time is I just start off on the weekly chart, especially if I am just starting to look at the charts for the week. So basically Monday or Tuesday, this is the time where I break up the weekly chart because I would love to understand, like, what is the weekly bias. Essentially, because last week closed bullish, we have a slight inclination to go towards the bullish direction for this week. So in this case, we're looking for a bullish trade for the week. Now, does this matter for an intraday basis? No, uh, because ultimately intraday we're looking to exit and enter a trade, um, within a couple of hours from start to finish. And while it's good to keep the weekly bias in mind, it's not going to affect the day-to-day. But still, it's just good to gain an understanding because, for example, right now I've seen that there is a fair value gap over here, and in the event that price comes into the fair value gap, and knowing that this week is likely to have a bullish inclination, I'm going to try to take advantage of this area here to kind of like confirm maybe a low of the week or like a bottom of the week. So once the low is formed here, and let's say we get into Wednesday or Thursday, I have much more confidence from that point onwards, especially if price starts to pump. I'll have a lot of confidence that, hey, this is the low of the week, and I'll just want to take advantage of whatever moves that come after. Now, that's the rationale behind why I'm looking, I'm looking at the weekly bias. So in that case, like, we're going to keep this in mind, basically 68,230. In the event that price comes back into here, obviously that's going to be a pretty nice area for price to just kind of like bounce and, you know, form a low of the week. But for now, for today, we're looking at a bearish daily bias, which means that the trade for today should be towards the bearish direction. In fact, before I even jump into price action, it's important to first understand what news we have. Like for example, today is completely a non-news day. And the reason why this matters is because news is a catalyst for volatility. Basically, when there is no news, there is not much reason for price to move a lot. And as traders, we literally, like our profit and loss depends on how much volatility there is in the market. If you're just ranging around, there is not much movement for you to take advantage of. But in a case where, you know, Bitcoin goes from, I don't know, $70,000 to $65,000 in the same day, that's a lot of movement that you could potentially make money off of, right? The lifeblood of a trader is volatility. Without volatility, you're kind of screwed. So for example, I'm going to see that, okay, there is news primarily on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. That kind of tells me that I might want to focus my trading closer to Wednesday to Friday because that is when there is reason for price to move aggressively. So not to say the price is not going to move today, it's just the way that I'm going to approach it is that I'm going to take today a little bit more, you know, safe, right? I'm going to wait for— if usually I wait for 5 confirmations, I might wait for 6. If usually I go for 1% risk, today I might go for 0.5% risk, right? This is just a way of accounting for the less than ideal market conditions. It's not that it's completely untradeable, but just because you're dealing with a slightly lower tier market condition means that you adapt accordingly. So in terms of the hourly, what I'm also seeing is that we are coming back into a bearish fair value gap. We're also taking out a previous liquidity level. In fact, we're taking out relatively equal highs. So this further kind of like proves the point that I might be looking at a high of the day being formed around here. And we are also coming back into this order block. If that means anything. Like, this entire block actually is an order block, so we're already in resistance. So for now, I think the setup is going to be pretty straightforward. You don't want to see price break very much above this fair value gap. There is a higher one over here that price may tap, but at this rate, considering that we are already at 5 AM New York, I think the play today is literally from now on, right? From this moment onwards, we're going to be looking for a 5-minute bearish CSD towards the downside. That's already going to be good enough for us to get into a short. Basically, a 5-minute CSD is going to be the where something like this happens, right? A break below 68,900 or potentially even 68,700, that would be your undeniable CSD. So if either one of these happens by the time that you watch this video, then you basically know that this is going to be the setup for today. Now the reason why we have to still wait for the 5-minute CSD instead of just going in at market is that I often say this, but there is a very big difference between an idea and whether or not the market validates that idea. For example, right now we have an idea that, okay, we are bearish on the day, price will come back into this fair value gap and price is going to dump from this point onwards. But that's our idea. Now, we do not jump into a trade until the market also validates that idea, right? You want to wait for the moment when the market agrees that, hey, your idea might be playing out. And I say this coming from a perspective of, like, by the way, like, to anyone here that is new to the channel, I've been publicly documenting my trades for, like, the last year. So far, I have about a 75% win rate across 180 trades or so. And, and right now, and if you'd like to learn the entire system behind how I was able to achieve this, feel free to check out the first link in the description box below. Blueprint is now officially open after being closed for 4 months. It's back now. Much better than ever. And like, it's going to close again in 2 weeks. If you want to check it out, feel free to check it out. But otherwise, going back into the video, there is again a very big difference between your idea. The moment when the market validates the idea is when you get that CSD either early or undeniable. And ideally, you want to be looking for this to happen between 7 AM to 10 AM New York, because that is going to be the New York kill zone. Now, so far, I don't think there is too, too much left to talk about in terms of Bitcoin. Now, the only thing that I think you do not want to see is a candle close above 69,400 or like 69,420. If you hourly candle close above this level, that kind of makes it a little bit tough to justify like, hey, you are still short for the day. Either way, now I will try to keep you guys posted as usual on sharing the live trades onto Twitter. But just a heads up, I do have a pretty nice dinner booked from one of the chefs in Culinary Class Wars. If you guys haven't checked that movie out or checked that show out, check it out. It's a pretty nice cooking show. But for those of you who have watched the movie, I've booked about 12 restaurants from like the chefs from Culinary Class Wars that I'm going to be going to over the next like 2-3 weeks. If you guys would love to hear the reviews of like, you know, how it is, I'll be happy to share. One thing's for sure, I'm super stoked to just be able to get a reservation at these restaurants because they are completely packed. But otherwise, like, yeah, in terms of Bitcoin, you just don't want to see it kind of close above that. If I do get into a trade, I'll definitely let you guys know. It would be pretty cool if I can make a couple thousand dollars at dinner to pay off whatever I'm going to spend during dinner. But yeah, let's take a real quick look at Ethereum as well while we're at it. So Ethereum, so far we are still dealing with a few relatively equal highs. So I think the downside until otherwise proven. Weekly bias, you're looking at a bearish weekly bias as well. Now in terms of the hourly, you are looking quite a bit stronger compared to Bitcoin, but still so far, because you are dealing with a bearish daily bias, if I'm not mistaken, you are still going to be primarily looking for longs. So right now you're about to tap into that hourly PD array, and obviously it's going to be a pretty similar setup compared to Bitcoin, except with Ethereum at this very moment, right when we're looking at the chart, the level for the CSD is going is going to be at around $2108, which is a long way away from current price. So the way that I would play this is like, okay, eventually price is going to tap into that. And I'm going to look for something like this where, you know, this might become the early CSD where I can get into price. So for example, going into a short, something like that. And at that point, you're probably going to get some sort of a head and shoulders pattern. And like, that's going to just kind of like give you a pretty solid trade setup. Now, in terms of Solana, we're also going to take a look at that. Now, in terms of the daily, you are bearish. Solana is looking quite considerably weaker compared to both Bitcoin and Ethereum. Weekly bias, you're looking at bullish as well. But like, again, take a look at that. With Solana, you have a huge gap. Meanwhile, on Bitcoin and Ethereum, not so much. And so far, you're going to be looking for literally the same setup. Again, at some point, I am going to migrate over to— like, I'm going to talk about Bitcoin primarily just because like that's the name of the channel. But there's so many opportunities on, you know, forex that we can be taking advantage of. Like, at some point, we're definitely going to get into that. So to those of you that haven't gotten into forex already, get started. In fact, I've got a couple of videos that I plan to film while I'm here in Korea that will help you a lot in getting into not only prop firms but also forex. So stay tuned for that. But otherwise, like, yeah, I'm gonna wrap this up here. I have to get ready for dinner. But just a final note, if you would like to get access to Blueprint, which is the system that will get you from where you are to consistently profitable within the next 90 days, it's open for the next 2 weeks. Check it out. But if not, feel free not to. Otherwise, see you guys tomorrow. I'll see you guys later if I post a trade.