bitcoin is approaching a MAJOR macro level (buy?)

What's good guys, welcome back to another video. Really hope you watched the video from yesterday and took advantage of that trade, cuz wow, what a banger! Like, who would have known that we would get two bangers in two days in a row? But anyways, uh, yesterday aside, today I'm still going to break down a couple of things. First of all, the best trade for Bitcoin today. We've been on a roll lately, so hopefully today is going to be no different. Uh, but secondly, we are fast approaching a very important level on the macro that I think a lot of you should know about it. Because there is a pretty good chance that we're going to get a pretty decent reaction off of that level. But before I get into it though, if you're new here, welcome. My name is Xuan, and I've been making these videos daily, just basically calling the move for Bitcoin as well as trading that move live on X alongside you guys for the last year and a half or so. And so far we are at about a 78% win rate across a sample size of about 200 trades so far. So if you're new here, just understand that you're probably in the right place. Because I tend to be right a little bit more often than I'm wrong. But now that that gives you a reason to listen to me, let's get into the video. So to kick things off, right, first of all, the daily target, or rather the weekly target that I set, you know, on Monday, basically got hit in like the single— in a single day, right, on Wednesday. And one of the biggest lessons that I hope that you guys take away from this, and one of the very big things that I emphasized from yesterday, is the fact that just because a target is hit does not mean that the market will not continue to go lower. There are so many times when I see beginners, especially when they start getting into many concepts, and they first understand liquidity, right? Okay, liquidity. If you hit some sort of liquidity point, that means it's over, right? The target is hit. It means no further movement. That could not be further from the truth. At the end of the day, you need to understand that liquidity levels is something that we use as traders to make an educated guess on where we think the market is going to stop at. It does not mean we are always going to be correct, because the market is always going to do what the market is going to do. And also implying that we can use liquidity levels to absolutely, like, just predict bottoms and tops or whatever also kind of implies that we're somewhat like in control of the markets, which could not be further from the truth, right? At the end of the day, the market's going to do what it's going to do, and it is our job as traders to simply follow the market to the best of our abilities. If the market wants to go down, we position ourselves to take advantage of some sort of a downside move. If the market wants to go up, like, I don't necessarily care what I think, you think, anybody thinks, as long as, you know, the signals from the market is telling me like, hey, um, Based on this and after applying my system to it, I'm pretty sure we're supposed to be looking for a long here. If that's the case, doesn't matter what I think, we're going long. So anyways, now that that rant is, you know, kind of out of the way, let's just start off on— well, let's talk about the macro first because like I bet this is, you know, probably one of the reasons that a lot of people are here. And here's the couple of levels that we are quickly approaching. If we draw a fib from the bear market low back in 2023 all the way up to the bear— sorry, the bull market high all the way back in 2025, you will come to realize that we are quickly approaching that 0.618 to 0.705 level. Now, for those of you who do not understand Fibs, and yes, I know I have never talked about Fibs on this channel before, but it is a pretty— it's something that works despite how, you know, not glamorous that it looks and despite how basic it sounds, it's something that works. And so I pulled this out every now and then, and I only pulled this out because a couple of days ago I was on a call with one of my students and he was basically asking like, okay, just— I know you're not in the business of like predicting what the markets are going to do, but it would be really helpful if if I were to be able to give my take on where I think the bottom, right, or a temporary bottom for Bitcoin might come. And so I use this method, and essentially in terms of the macro, you are coming back into the 0.618, which aligns with the $57,300 level, as well as the 0.705 level, which aligns with the $48,000 level. Now here's the blue box over here, is basically my answer to him where I think this time around, uh, where we may bottom during this bear market. So essentially over here, if you take a look at this low and this low over here, these are examples of what is known as a weak low. Essentially, we are so close to these lows right now that we can be considered to have relatively equal lows. And if you know anything about relatively equal lows, is that they are magnets for liquidity. It means that price is oftentimes attracted to these relatively equal lows. Or in general, the other way you can think about it is that when the market does any sort of movement, there is always some sort of an objective, right? There's always some sort of a liquidity objective. Now it is our job as traders to figure out what that might be. And usually the most common liquidity objectives tends to be previous highs and previous lows. Given the fact that the market is currently in a downtrend, is in a bearish order flow state, we are going to look for previous lows as some sort of a liquidity objective. And in this case right here, this makes sense, right? This area around here at $49,000. This is also the reason why I talk about— and this is also the reason why I believe, right, even though I'm not acting on this, but if you were to ask me what my two cents is on where I think the bottom is going to come, I think we do not bottom until we hit $49,000 at all. Now again, I can be proven wrong. In fact, I'm more than happy to be proven wrong. If we— like, if the market right now just kind of changes the order flow and, you know, kind of gives me a break in market structure and it starts pumping, great. Because at the end of the day, I'm a crypto bro, I don't want to see Bitcoin going down. But as it stands right now, it's bearish. And as long as it continues remaining bearish, I am looking at prior liquidity levels in order to, you know, just have targets. And right now The two most relevant levels right here recently, and when I say recently, I really mean yesterday, we swept out this level right here. So right now we only have two more levels. One of them is at $52,750-ish, and the other one is at around $49,000. So as we quickly approach these levels, just understand, right, I'm just letting you guys know, like, there is a possibility that things could start stalling. We might go into a bit of an accumulation. It does not mean that that is going to be the level where we are entering. That is caught— like, one thing's for sure, it's not the level where I just look at that immediately like, okay, yeah, I'm going to place my limits over there and, you know, kind of hope for the best. No, I have made multiple videos talking about why buying the dip is one of the most stupid things that you can do ever in trading. I'll even link one of them like at the end of this video, not here right now. Uh, feel free to check it out. If— feel free to check it out. I even give you like the practical solution on what to do instead so that you don't get stuck holding bags that go like -80% and how you can actually position yourselves early in before the start of like major moves, right? You're going to be early. You're not going to be at the bottom, but you're going to be very early. And that still gives you the potential to hit like 5 to 10x. But most importantly, the way that I'm going to describe in that video, that is how you end up not needing to hold bags. And you're— to somebody looking from the outside, you're going to look like an absolute genius because, whoa, you know, you catch— you get in basically a couple weeks before it starts moving. And now I've done this and I've demonstrated this plenty of times on this channel just over the last year and a half or so. But again, that video, check it out. It's going to make sense. But with that out of the way though, just understand that again, the TL;DR is that I don't think we're going to go for any— like, I don't think an uptrend is likely to happen until we hit either one of these two levels. Now again, happy to be proven wrong, but I wouldn't be buying the dip at these levels personally. In fact, I wouldn't buy dips at all, period. So now I've already lost way too much money trying to do that stuff. So yeah, you know, lesson learned the hard way, not going to make the same mistake. But let's go to Bitcoin, and let's talk about the daily setup for today. So, so far we are still having a really bearish bias, and if you remember what I mentioned at the start of the video, just because key targets have been hit does not mean that we automatically now assume that things are going to start pumping, or we automatically assume that the bottom is in and it cannot go lower, because that is not the truth. You could— in fact, how many times have you been in a, for example, a crypto bull market, and you set your target at $100,000 and it goes way further than that? Or if you've ever been through a bear market, how often have you just kind of set limits and kind of buy the dip? Okay, if it goes below 50%, or like if it goes 80% from the all-time highs, that's a really key level and that's really strong support. Guess what? The market doesn't care. The market, as long as it wants to keep going down, it's going to keep going down. And if you just take action based on some arbitrary opinion about where the market is going to bottom or top, that's how you lose money. But similarly, the way this applies to trading is that just because a liquidity level is hit, the overall market structure and the overall trend and the overall bias is still towards the downside. And so what am I going to do? I'm of course going to sell low and then buy back lower. Because time and time again, if we just start assuming that the price is expensive or that, you know, we're in some kind of a top, we are going to start doing different— like, we're going to start, you know, trading the other side of the market, right? Essentially, like, let's say the market is in an uptrend And then if I think that is too expensive, chances are I'm going to look to sell. And I can tell you one thing for sure, I have tried to do this many times in the past, especially when I was still new, and it didn't go so well. And I urge you as well, if you are currently trading, look back at your own trading and really kind of break it down. Where are most of your losses coming from? Are they the ones where you simply follow the trend? If the trend is bearish, you continue buying, like selling low and buying lower, or if the trend is bullish, you continue buying high and selling higher. Are most of your losses coming because you are trying to predict some sort of reversal point in the market, or are you trying to kind of go against the wave? And I'm not saying that going against the trend is always going to be unprofitable. It's not that you will always have losses, but it's more so that this is, statistically speaking, a losing play. If I were to give you like over 1,000 trades in a row, who do you think is going to make money? The guy that follows the trend or the guy that goes counter-trend? That's right, over the course of 1,000 trades, one is better than the other, and that is what we need to optimize for if we want to make, you know, money as a trader. Or more important, actually, making money— anyone can make money as a trader. What I really mean to say was, if we are trying to be consistently profitable over in the long run and to actually make a living out of this for not just a couple of days, but for a couple of years or a couple of decades, we need to understand long term and we need to understand probability theory and we need to understand statistics. Pretty basic, and yet nobody really talks about this. Neither do a lot of people care because most beginners, they come into the market and all they want is the shiny strategy or for somebody to just kind of like feed them the fish and like, hey, here's the trade that you take, you take this and you're going to make money. And I don't know if If you're not getting results, it's probably because, like, if you're still, like, stuck in trading and you're just incredibly frustrated at the results that you've been getting and why, like, nothing ever seems consistent, properly handed you the playbook or, like, the proper knowledge, there's good reason for that, right? This stuff doesn't sell. It's not sexy to talk about probability theory. It's not sexy to talk about, like, following a system. But if you care about making money, that is arguably the only things that matter. If you like my help, by the way, to build that, this is what we specialize in to help you overcome that stage of like just inconsistency and incredible frustration. Feel free to click the first link in the description box below if you'd like to work with us one-on-one where we handhold you through every step of the process. But hey, if not, don't worry about it. We're going to get back into the video. So either way, I've already established the fact that we are still going to be looking for a short for today, at least until proven otherwise. And I'm going to give you the conditions where this is going to be proven otherwise. So right now, we're coming back into this bearish PDAI. And by the way, shout out to anyone who managed to catch this trade yesterday. It happened real quick, and I think we had a solid 2 to 3 minutes to where the CSD got confirmed, and then the market moved, like, just exploded towards the downside. So this was one of those trades where you had to be, you know, kind of paying attention at around that 9:30 AM New York futures open, but which also matches up to the exact timing kind of window that I told you guys about yesterday. So if you guys took it and if you guys made money, drop a comment down below. Not only that, but drop a like while you're at it because it's a very small action, but it goes a long way to showing your support for this video and for this channel and driving more views, which in turn keeps me way more motivated to continue making these videos every single day. And otherwise, and right now we have a bearish fair value gap that price is coming back into. And yes, I am aware that we have had some sort of a bullish CIST. It doesn't change the fact though that we are still looking for shorts because the overall, like, in a situation, right, by the way, and this is going to be a quick lesson for all of you that are trying to make the most out of the or trying to, you know, piece together and understand the system, this is a quick lesson for you. So what happens when you have a bullish 1-hourly CUSD but then your daily bias is bearish and you are very clearly in overall bearish order flow and you're very clearly in overall bearish market structure? What do you do? In this case, you actually give a bit more weight to the overall, right, the— in terms of the bigger picture and also the higher time frame. So essentially, daily bias bearish, all right, we're going to give more weight to the daily bias. We're going to still look for reasons to go short unless proven otherwise. And the other side of the equation is the overall kind of picture, right? Overall, we are incredibly bearish. And so we are going to treat this as more of a kind of like fake out, essentially like a false pump before, like to basically trick a lot of people into getting in on this, like, oh yeah, the market's going up, the downtrend's over or whatever, let's go long or whatever, the counter trend boys basically. And then you're going to dump right after that. So that's what we kind of treat this as. So yes, we have a bullish ASD. I totally understand. But as long as price does not go above this bearish fair value gap for today, in my opinion, like, which is basically at $61,000, a short is still very much on the table. Now, obviously, if we go above $61,000, today's probably just going to end up as a no-trade day, which is perfectly fine as well. The only thing worse than, you know, force— like, one of the worst things you could do in the markets is to try to force a trade where there is none. If you really look back at most of your losses, where does it come from? It's probably because you're trying to force something, though there's nothing clear there. So the way you kind of prevent this is to come up with clear criteria, and this is what I do in every single video. I come up with a very clear criteria of what needs to happen before I even consider a trade. And but besides that, I also come up with a very clear idea of, okay, if this happens, today's no longer going to be a trading day. And for me today, it's going to be a candle close above $61,000. And as usual, I'll be posting any updates on Twitter. And yeah, feel free to follow me there. And like, whatever trades that I do take, I'm going to be, you know, just posting it over there. As for the exact timing that we're going to be looking for all of this, it's going to be on, well, basically just 7 AM to 10 AM New York. Now I am filming the video pretty early as far as, you know, when I would usually film these videos. So right now we're coming back into here. I am most likely going to try, like, if we finally get some sort of a CIC towards the downside, something like that on the 5-minute, I will try to get into a trade because again, we're already valid here. But by the time you watch this video, let's say, you know, it gets posted a couple of hours later, and as long as the price action is actually, you know, just continuing to head towards the downside on the 5-minute chart, it shows you that the order flow is incredibly bearish on the 5-minute chart. If that is the case, you simply look for new order blocks blocks, right? So for example, this could be a new order block, bearish order block that forms, and you're just going to take advantage of those order blocks and target for 2R. Again, like, so many people ask me like, hey, what are the targets? If I don't mention any sort of an explicit target, the answer is always going to be the same. This system dictates that we take profit at 2R. Now, me personally, I don't do that because I am a way bigger fan of aiming for— now, I don't mind going through like multiple losses in a row if it means that the win that I do get is going to be like an absolute home run. Like, for example, in the last couple of days. I only took basically 3 trades this entire week. On Tuesday, I lost half a percentage. On Wednesday, I made 10R, and yesterday I did close to 5R. Now that is like basically 15R on the week. Most people tend to get 15R in like a month or something, but the reason why I'm able to achieve that is not because I am better than certain people or I'm better than you. Like, for example, you're trading this exact same system as me, but you're making less R this week, don't worry. Like, don't compare, like, your execution to the results that I'm getting. It's kind of like comparing apples to oranges. It's not that I am, like, a better apple than you. It's more of, like, we're optimizing for different outcomes. I prefer optimizing for big wins. That's why whenever I do win, it's going to be a banger. But what you don't see is the fact that because I'm optimizing for these big wins, I tend to have a lot of situations where, for example, I might set my TP at 4R and price could go all the way to, like, 3.5. And then because I don't I kind of manage it for a while, it comes back and I get stopped out at breakeven, or worse, I lose money on that trade even though I was up a really good amount at a certain point. Now, not everyone can stomach that, but I'm perfectly cool with that because that's also one I'm optimizing towards. That's a very important lesson. Don't just kind of like go on Twitter or like come onto this channel and like compare your results to somebody else. Like, for all you know, they could be optimizing for something completely different and So like, yeah, so yeah, like again, the reason why I would recommend 2R for most people is just consistent. Like you can very easily average a 40, 50, 60% win rate using 2R. And for a beginner, that is arguably the most important thing on planet Earth. It's not necessarily about catching home runs because if you're a beginner and you're still trying to learn how to trade and you don't, and you're not yet equipped with all of this knowledge about, you know, systems theory and probability theory and having like the right systems in place and having the right checklist in place, you are going to struggle if you run into losses in a row, you're going to start doubting the system, you're going to start doubting yourself, you're going to start getting angry, you're going to start revenge trading, or whatever it is, right? It just makes it really hard for you to be consistent in trading if you're not getting consistent wins. But if you are, like, every win that you get, you're going to feel a little bit better about the system, you're going to feel a little bit better about yourself, and overall, that is a positive feedback loop that builds on itself. Yes, like, you're not going to make the absolute top end of money right at the start when you optimize for 2R. Trust me, this will take you from where you are now to just making your first kind of like full-time living from trading, if that makes sense. But yeah, just to get back to the point, um, I will start to, you know, dive into a trade here if we do get that CIC. If we don't, then I'm going to wait for New York session. And same thing, when you look at the New York session, you just need the 5-minute to also be showing you bearish order flow. Essentially, this right here is an example of a change in state of delivery, and the other one is, who knows, like this This will also be valid depending on what time you watch this video. But yeah, all I'm looking for is proof that, okay, just because we come into this 1-hourly PD array does not mean that I immediately set my limit, set my stop loss there, and start, you know, taking the trade. It's okay when price comes back into this level. I need to wait for the market to also show me some indication that it agrees with my thesis before I jump into it. So that's the reason why we wait. Just keep in mind that today is a non-news day, so the overall probability of the day is going to be slightly lower. It doesn't change the fact though that in terms of technical, like you're only looking at the price action, this is a valid trade setup. It's just that you want to be a little bit more cautious. Ideally, if you could go for half risk in all of the trades that you take today, that would be ideal because you don't have news today. Again, best way I can explain why we want to trade on news days, why we want to focus and go full risk and put in big money on news days versus non-news days, is because the market always needs a reason to move. There is a reason why Mondays and Tuesdays that that, you know, don't have news, you just don't really see the market do anything at all. In fact, we saw that this Monday, and that's because there is no kind of catalyst. But on a day where you have high-impact news, for example, yesterday we had USD news, right? That's Core PCE price index. When you have high-impact news on the table, every single market participant out there is going to be looking at that time, and they're going to be thinking, okay, something's probably going to happen around that time. I may not know if it's going to go up or down, but I do know that something is likely to happen, which is exactly, you know, why you see big explosive moves coming from those kind of like news days and news events, right? It's not a coincidence. Again, the more you understand about these, you know, these little things that drive price movements, that's how you start to get consistent. Which, by the way, humble shill, you've already seen the results that I've been getting for myself over the last year and a half. You've seen the results. I literally post a win on X every single day, right? Our students are crazy successful. If you'd like to be part of that next cohort, Click the first link in the description box down below. I promise you, if you've been burned by other gurus before because they just really don't care about your success, they take your money and they run. We're different and you will see. But anyways, I'll see you guys on X later. It's been a fantastic week. Thank you all for staying around and I'll see you guys in the next one. Ciao ciao.