bitcoin is setting up for a NASTY move soon (be careful)

What's good guys, welcome back to another video. Bitcoin looks like it's setting up for a big move. Now whether or not that's going to happen today or tomorrow is a question that I'm going to answer in this video. But just right before we get into the video, if you're new here, welcome, my name is Xuan. I've been making these videos for the past year and a half, and so far at around 200+ trades called, I'm at about a 78% win rate. So if you're new here, just understand that you're probably in the right place because I tend to be right a little bit more often than I'm wrong. Also, there's a quick note before we get into it. We're currently running a giveaway where I'm giving away $25,000 worth of coaching to my flagship programs for absolutely free. All you have supply. If you'd like to check that out, feel free to check it out on X or the link in the description box below. Not going to talk too much about it within this video, but now let's get into it. So in terms of the weekly bias, remember what we talked about yesterday. We are looking for sells above the weekly open. Now Monday has currently traded above the weekly open, and currently Tuesday it is looking like it's going down. But I would say that this is going to be a little bit misleading because, in fact, I'm just going to talk about what's going to be misleading here on the 1-hourly chart first, which is the fact that at the moment you have relatively equal lows and you have relatively equal highs. Now I actually filmed a video video last week on like why you don't want to be trading into relative equal lows and highs, which I will be posting sometime throughout this week once it's, you know, being edited. For example, right now if you were to look at Bitcoin and if you were to trade, you know, chart patterns, you would see like, oh yeah, this is a bull flag or bear flag or whatever. Like, to me, this is just a range, right? You have a bunch of relatively close, you have a bunch of relatively highs. Either way, you're in a range, you're consolidating. And one of the reasons why we try to avoid ranges, because oftentimes this is the type of pattern that stops us out before the kind of like true move happens. One of them that recall making a video about was literally just last week. In fact, I think this was the video where I'm— this was the exact example that I used, the video that I made on why I don't trade into relatively equal highs and lows. And like, essentially you have this kind of triangle pattern here, falling wedge, whatever you want to call it, bear flag. Eventually you sweep out the highs before you eventually go for the lows. Now mind you, that was a day with a bearish daily bias, and we already called that trade where I think that was the day where I got the 10R trade in like the span of like half an hour. So that was a pretty good trade, but that was a day where the daily bias was super clear. Now, if we take a look at the daily bias for today, we're actually supposed to be looking for longs. Now, here's the problem with looking for longs into this type of a situation. A, in terms of 1-hourly chart, you have gotten a bearish change of state of delivery, and that means right now if you were to go long, you're literally going to be trading into resistance number 1, resistance number 2, and potentially resistance number 3. So this is not the ideal kind of situation that you want to be trading into. Now, secondly, you're currently going to be aiming for these lows until proven otherwise. Why? Because these are relatively equal lows. Relatively equal lows, if you understand anything about liquidity concepts, is that they are a magnet for liquidity in a sense where price is always going to be attracted to these relatively equal lows. Chances are if you like take out this low and you get a little bit of a bounce, that is not a signal where you want to just start going long because chances are you're going to take out this one first. Now in the event that, you know, by the time you watch this video though, you do sweep out these lows right at $58,900 or $58,850 and you do see a 5-minute CSD towards the upside, you know, there is a chance that you might continue reaching back towards this level. Now here's the other problem in terms of the overall 1-hourly order flow. It's bearish. And secondly, you still have further targets down below. Third, in terms of the overall weekly bias, we're actually bearish for the week. So overall, we're looking for shorts actually. So you don't even want to be looking for a long here. And if you're wondering why this might be happening and why the, you know, just the overall day seems so low probability, well, it's good to understand news. Now, news is also the reason why we ended up sitting out yesterday and why my call to just essentially be like just no trade for yesterday went brilliantly. The problem that you run into when you have a no-news day is that you got to understand that the biggest moves in the market often happen when there is a strong reason, or at least a reason for the market to move. Like when you have news, for example, and when I refer to news, I'm talking about red folder news. So calendar, Forex Factory, and you can look at, okay, tomorrow we have red folder news, Thursday we have red folder news. Now what news tells you is that, okay, you know, within these 3 news windows here, I may not know where price is going to go, but I'm pretty damn sure I know that something like some sort of a big movement is going to come. Because, well, there's economic news and there is just a general reason for the markets to move. Now, what you end up getting on days where you don't have news, especially USD/RED for the news, is that the market just chops around even though everything on price action seems to align. And this is exactly what I mentioned yesterday, by the way, if you guys watch the video, shout out to you, you're the real ones. Even though price action aligns, you just don't get the trade. And even if you do get the trade, it's not like oftentimes the volatility is so low that, for example, this would have been like the TP1, and it did not even hit TP1. There was not even enough volatility. Once you got the CUSD at what, $59,700, you moved a grand total of $700 on Bitcoin. Such amazing conditions to trade with, right? So this is one of the reasons why you do want to avoid non-news days. And secondly, the reason why we're ranging is because oftentimes what you will see at the start of the week on Mondays and Tuesdays, especially if there is no news and there is a big piece of news coming on Wednesday or Thursday, or in our case even today's the last day of the month. Let's put it this way, it's pretty normal to expect that, okay, on the first day of the month we're going to get an increase in volatility, right? It's the start of the month, and at the same time, we're going to get news events tomorrow. And third, Monday and Tuesday so far are looking like they're setting up for some sort of a bigger move later this week, which is exactly the thing that I talked about yesterday. So we don't want to play into this, right? Knowing that, okay, A, price looks like it's setting up for a big move, B, price is in a range, and when price is in a range, we understand that, okay, you kind of want to wait for the lows to be swept. And ideally, considering that we are looking for a short this week, Ideally, we want the highs to be swept before we get into something. Then the correct move for today is to simply stay out of it. Because what's going to end up happening if you try to force a trade in these conditions where clearly price is just bouncing between like a value area low and a value area high is that you're going to get very low probability trades. You're going to get a lot of trades that get stopped out because direction is just not clear. Even when you do get into the trade, and even if it does look like it's playing out, you're just not going to hit your TP because, well, you're in— price is just literally trading in a tight range. And so yeah, you're just not going to have a good time. Then why not? Like, the alternative to this is that, okay, let's say today we finally get a super bearish move and we get a confident candle close beneath all of these levels. All of the lows have been swept down, and yet price is showing no indication that it wants to go towards the upside. Tomorrow, let's jump into a short. It's never too late. Like, just because we know, or at the very least, just because we think price may be going to a certain level, does not mean we have to trade it, because it may not be a high probability trade. And again, remember that you are paid in trading relative to the quality of the decisions that you do take, not the amount of decisions, or like the amount of trades or the amount of hours that you put into this. Because at the end of the day, if you try to force something here, you're only going to get stopped out. Now imagine if you can wait for more confirmations, and then once everything's aligned and you think that's an A+ trade, you put, say, 10 times the amount of money that you would usually put in. Like, you're going to stand a much greater chance of actually making a decent paycheck rather than, you know, just forcing, oh yeah, I think price is going to come here, uh, it's just a couple dollar, a couple hundred dollar move, and like, I also think that this trade couldn't work out, so let me just take a small trade with like $50, right? That's, that's not reinforcing the right behaviors, and Now I'll give you another example to just really kind of hammer this home. In trading, oftentimes we already know, like you and me, we both know what the A+ setup looks like. In fact, I have realized time and time again that every time I know that the big money makers are always the A+ setups where everything's super clear, where you're operating in high probability conditions, everything is aligned. Those are my money makers. But the place where I actually lose a lot of money is all of these other trades that are, they kind of meet the conditions, but they kind of also don't. Let me just put a small amount of money in them and just see how it goes. Newsflash, they almost do work out. In fact, most of my losses do come from that. And if you have realized a similar trend as well, that should give you the answer. So the hard part is not waiting for the A+ setups. The hard part is avoiding all of the garbage that comes in between the A+ setups. And today is looking like one of those days where you have a reason to believe that it's going to push to the downside. You also have a reason to believe that it should go to the upside, but neither case is super strong. Whenever I can make an argument for both sides of the equation, that is my biggest warning sign that I should stay out. Because it's always on days like this, it's always on trades like this where I end up losing because the direction is just not clear. I implore you as well, while this may not be sexy, it may not be the most exciting advice that, hey, you're watching this video but I'm just telling you not to trade. The reality is this is just kind of how trading works, right? It's not as exciting as all of these degen bros out there with the Lamborghinis make it look like. A lot of the time it's a lot of waiting and it's waiting until we get clear conditions. At that point, you've seen me act without hesitation. And even then, right after that, it's a lot of waiting for the trade to kind of play out and eventually hitting a $10K day. Overall, I cannot in good conscience tell you that today is a high probability, you know, kind of trading day. But I can tell you that if you are looking for something, I know regardless of whatever advice I may give, some of you are still going to try to force something. For those of you, the thing that you're going to want to look for is between the hours of 7 AM to 10 AM. You're going to sweep these lows, especially at $58,850-ish. And once you sweep it out, you get that 5-minute CSD that is going to be your entry trigger. And you're just going to target for 2R or at these highs over here at $61,000. In fact, $61,000 is the exact level that I was looking for yesterday. But We just kind of stopped short. And the reason why we were looking for that yesterday is because this is a weak high on the daily chart. And in fact, if today's candle closes, you know, without sweeping these highs, then these are most definitely going to become relatively equal highs. And you know what that means? Chances are we might get a really choppy week overall. Now, of course, I cannot predict volatility. I cannot tell you that, you know, this week we're going to see $5,000 worth of price action. Last week we definitely did see a very volatile week. In fact, just throughout the month of June, I've already made more than enough to basically cover my expenses. The rest of the year. And I think a lot of you have as well, just because the market conditions throughout the second and third week of June has just been fantastic, like mind-blowingly fantastic. If you guys didn't make money on that, like you really do need to reflect on, because this system performed exceptionally well during the last couple of weeks. By the way, if you're watching at this point so far, and if you enjoy my trading philosophy of how I keep it real and how I really do try to show you the real side of trading, and if you would like to learn from a trader that is transparent about his wins and losses, and on the days where there is nothing to do. I am telling you there is nothing to do, even though this is not going to get me the most views. If you want to learn this trading philosophy and install this for yourself so that you can stop being inconsistent with your trading, stop being frustrated, and actually get some systematic trading into your life, feel free to click the first link in the description box below. But otherwise, I'll see you guys tomorrow. Ciao ciao!