bitcoin is setting up for a MAJOR shift (weekly close analysis)

What's good guys, welcome back to another video. It's a new week on Bitcoin and that means we are going to get some pretty good opportunities heading into this week. I'm going to break down the exact trade that I'm looking for today, also for the rest of the week. So yeah, just before we get into it, if you're new here, welcome, my name is Xuan. I have a 75% publicly documented win rate on all of these daily YouTube calls that I'm making, so it just means that I tend to be right just a tiny bit more compared to when I'm wrong. So hopefully that gives you a bit of a reason to listen to me. But now let's get into the video. So First things first, we're going to start off on the weekly chart, and we can see that last week's candle actually closed bullish above this level, which is a really good sign for people that are expecting Bitcoin to go towards the upside. Reason being is that there were 2 scenarios that could happen once you took out this level, right? The first of which is that it just ended up being a liquidity sweep, and you're going to leave behind a huge wick without actually closing above this level. Now that you have actually closed above this level, this shows you that A, there were enough people, you know, there was enough interest driving price beyond that level, but also the fact that there was enough people that were willing to buy at these prices In order to keep the price afloat, right? Basically above this level. And also we got the retest, and currently we're retesting it the second time. So overall, this is a really positive sign. It's a good first step in confirming some sort of a Bitcoin bull market because because at the very least it shows that you know there are people actually interested in these current prices. Does that mean this is just you know bull markets absolutely back? I still wouldn't jump to that conclusion, but I will tell you that I'm a lot more bullish this week compared to last week, right? If this ended up being a liquidity sweep, then yeah. 100%, we're just going to go back to the range low. But just because we ended up closing above this level doesn't mean it automatically gives us the green light to just kind of get in. It just means that this is step 1 in some sort of a bullish reversal. Although if you ask me what would be step 2, I would probably tell you like you need to go above $93,600. If you get a CSD above this level as well, where basically you get a candle close above this level, like yeah, hell yeah, undeniably you're back in the bull market. Even right now, this is a convincing CSD, not gonna lie. I'm not going to jump to conclusions with the swing trades yet, but I know that there are a couple of charts that are already absolutely taking off. Hyperliquid is one of them. But for now, I can tell you that this week I'm going to be very, very bullish into Bitcoin. And yeah, where better to start than to just get into the intraday setup for today? Coming down into the daily bias, we can see that the last couple of days we are in fact bullish. And in fact, one of these scenarios that could potentially set us up for a really bullish move heading into this week is the fact that we've already swept out the low from back when we kind of retested that level. And once I go down into the lower time frames, you're going to see this a lot clearer, where in terms of the 5-minute chart, the Asian session literally started off the day slash started off week by sweeping out all of this liquidity, followed by an aggressive dump towards the downside. And London, so far you've gone for another couple of sweeps. So for today, I think the setup is going to be pretty straightforward. Now that you have the potential manipulation over here where you've swept out the key levels— both Asia and London has been manipulative actually— you are just going to be waiting for some sort of a clear signal from the market that, hey, there is in fact buying interest. What I mean by that is that at the moment you have 1, 2, and 3 levels that you can potentially use for an OCISD. Obviously this first one Once it gets confirmed with a candle close above on the 5-minute chart, this would be an early CSD. And by technical definition, once you get 2 consecutive CSDs, uh, this makes it undeniable. But, but kind of like what the name would suggest, undeniable CSD is when you get a CSD that's so convincing that like, okay, hell yeah, you're absolutely having a new bullish order block over here that you can work with. And that's why I would prefer using this level. Reason being also is that today is Monday and there is no news today. And one of the key things you need to understand about the markets is that at any given moment, you're always trying to balance a scale between risk and reward, right? And obviously, the thing that determines whether you're going to likely end up with risk or if you're likely going to end up with reward is the probability. Depending on certain criteria, for example, today's Monday and there is no news. Both of these criteria combine to lower the probability of the day. And this is all relative. Now compare this to something like Friday where we're going to get NFP. Right? That is a Friday with red folder USD news. So when you compare today where you have absolutely no news and no reason for the market to move really cleanly versus Friday where you have all the reason in the world where everyone's going to be expecting some sort of volatile move on Bitcoin or a lot of financial assets, relatively speaking, today's probability is going to be lower compared to what we're going to get later on during Friday. And so in that sense, because we're dealing with a lower probability day today, we want to adjust our behavior so that we're compensating for this lower probability. So instead, like for example, with Friday, I would have just told you straight up that, yeah, the moment you get an early CSD, because we've already swept out a key level, the moment you get an early CSD, yeah, it's good to go. You don't have to have any second thoughts. But because today is Monday and the probability is lower, instead of the early CSD, we're going to wait for the undeniable CSD because that is like our insurance plan, right? When the probability goes down, we adjust our behavior in a way that kind of compensates. So like for example, right, this would be an absolutely balanced scale. The probability goes down, we're gonna adjust this way so that it ultimately kind of cancels it out. But on the flip side of the equation, let's say you're dealing with like a really high probability scenario or like a really high probability day, then your probability is gonna be there and you don't wanna be like, you don't wanna be so conservative. And if anything, you wanna be more aggressive so that again, you're balancing things out. You're too conservative on the day where you're supposed to be aggressive, that oftentimes leads you to just completely miss moves and like, yeah, that's just a mistake. And by the way, if you guys enjoy a lot of the alpha that I share within these YouTube videos, you're gonna really love the second channel, where I'm posting a lot of these snippets from my coaching calls as well as live trading calls where, you know, I generally discuss some pretty valuable stuff. It's just not in a format that would otherwise make it to this main YouTube channel, but we are clipping it and posting on the second channel. Feel free to check it out. Otherwise, just to get into an invalidation scenario, because we don't just want to jump to conclusions and say like, oh yeah, 100%, things are just going to pump straight up, because the fact is like we're still dealing with Monday here. And when it comes to Mondays, I usually tend to avoid Mondays because even though I have a relatively high win rate, the majority of losses has historically come on Monday. I would say more than 50% of my very little losses have come on Mondays because what tends to happen on Monday is that you get price action playing out really cleanly, but for some reason or another, when you actually get into the New York kill zone, even though price action, you know, completely lines up, it just completely fails, or you end up with a day with zero volatility during the New York session. So usually I tend to avoid Mondays, but if I get this undeniable CSD It still wouldn't be the absolute best trading day for me because technically speaking, you know, when you get this undeniable CSD, you are kind of trading into this bearish order block right here. Although like this would be the absolute minimum requirement for me to even think about the trade. And if you get that, then yeah, 100%, uh, you wait for some sort of new order block to form and off you go. And today of course we're not going to be too aggressive with the targets, just 2R basically. If you enter here, let's say your stop loss is over there, you see this number over here, well just make sure that number says 2 or slightly above 2 if you want. Uh, just go for 2R, there's No, like, real target here. I don't really expect the current Asia high to get taken out because that would mean we go from $85K all the way down to $83K and then all the way back up to $85K again, which is like quite a lot of volatility, especially for a Monday. There is also a pretty high likelihood that you don't get the CSD that, you know, is going to be present here. And you could even argue that price is now currently in super bearish order flow, which is a valid point. And that's also what makes today a bit of a red flag when it comes to trading, right? Because the moment I come on to the hourly chart, you can see, okay, yeah, it's pretty, it's pretty clear that we're bearish, but you've just swept out some sort of a key level, which are these relatively equal lows back here. Also, we have retested the weekly, you know, kind of key level. Could argue that, yeah, just because you're bearish, but you were bearish for a reason, to come down to sweep out this liquidity so that you can give a reversal or so that you can go bullish again. On the lower timeframe, we're saying that, okay, we do in fact believe that it could be bullish, but we cannot deny that price action has been pretty bearish so far and market structure. And there is a high likelihood that we're just going to kind of get rejected at these kind of key resistance zones and just continue going down. Hence my reasoning for saying that, yeah, Today's just not the absolute highest quality trading day. And if you know anything about making money consistently from trading, it's not really about trading every single day. It's trading less but taking better trades. And if there is one filter that I use all the time to help me determine if a particular trade is going to be high quality or not, it's simply that, can I make an argument for both sides of the equation? Because if I have a reason to be bearish on this and have a reason to be bullish on this, what's the clear direction here? Now, on the flip side of the equation, I'm sure you have taken trades before where everything just kind of lines up, right? Ding ding ding ding ding! All of your conditions line up super straightforward. You open up the chart and within 15 seconds you're like, "Yep, I'm getting into this one." Those are the super obvious trades, and they're obvious for a reason. They're A plus. Everything lines up, and those are the trades you want to prioritize, not the ones from today. So if you get into any trades today, just be really careful. This scenario that I drew out right here may not happen. It might just continue forming bearish order flow heading into the rest of today. It also doesn't mean that we need to jump into a trade, right? You can. You can just let price action do its thing and just jump in tomorrow. Now, just to give you an example of what I would be thinking, if today ends up closing bullish, then clearly this key level is not really much of a key level, right? And because we got a bearish close, tomorrow, like within, you know, after the New York session today, you're going to get a bit of a retracement. And this is where we can kind of jump in before a daily expansion towards the downside again. So wait for the trend to establish itself, wait for a high probability retracement zone, and then you just ride the continuation. And obviously the target would be closer to $80K and at the very least, right, $82K. Now, The second scenario that could happen is that today ends up closing bullish, right? You get a bullish move that completely reverses the trend. In terms of the 1-hourly, the key level to look at is going to be right here at 83,450 because this is the first bearish order block on the 1-hourly chart. If you get a CSD above this level, guess what? You're going to flip this into— from resistance into support. And tomorrow we can jump in at either here, here, or here, and we can ride a move towards the upside once we get a confirmation that this was in fact going to hold as support. But today it's a bit more of a guessing game in the sense where we like, we were just kind of making predictions here. Is it gonna go down or is it gonna go up? At the end of the day, we don't have enough confirmation for both. And that's what makes today so tough. And that's just why I'm most likely gonna be sitting out for today. But hey, if you guys wanna jump into a trade, hopefully this gives you enough information as to what you need to hopefully catch a good trade. And by the way, if you're enjoying the content from this YouTube channel, I just want you to understand that you are gonna gain way more if you actually join the paid programs. Like, I'm gonna be honest, what you're watching here on YouTube is already amazing and you can definitely figure it out over time if you just continue to watch these YouTube videos. Because people have done so. But if you value your time and if you value speed to result, then I would highly encourage you to consider clicking the first link in the description box below where you can apply to work with us one-on-one, like me and the rest of the team at AOC. We're going to be holding your hand one-on-one and taking you through the entire process of not only learning the system, but implementing the system that gets you consistent results in a way that gets you consistent trading results. Absolutely no pressure, but I just wanted to put it out there for the people that might be interested because more than 50% of everyone that joined the program have either gotten funded for $100,000, or they have managed to go full-time into trading. And it's a success rate that no other program can claim because they simply do not care to measure student success, or they wouldn't dare to measure student success because they know just how many people don't get results from these paid programs, right? We know we're making an impact here. We know we're making a change. And that's why I'm able to speak of my program with such high conviction. But otherwise, I'll see you guys later on X if I do jump into any trades. But otherwise, I'll see you guys in tomorrow's video. Ciao, ciao. Ciao, ciao.