bitcoin is showing the BIGGEST signal we’ve seen ALL WEEK (take this trade!)

What's good, guys? Welcome back to another video. Today, the market condition is looking spectacular. Honestly, I'm already seeing like more price movement today than the rest of the week combined. So chances are, I think we're going to get a pretty decent day for today. And in fact, it's going to be super straightforward. If you guys have watched any of my videos from the last few days, you know that the overall vibe that I was kind of giving off is like, yeah, guys, this is not really the best day to be trading. You want to be very careful. And then I kind of go on 10-minute spiels, just giving you guys some mindset lessons or some Other type of you know alpha that I could give you other than you know talking about oh yeah yeah Bitcoin this is the trade for today. So yeah anyways I think we're going to get a pretty decent day for today so I'm going to break down the exact trade I'll be looking at for Bitcoin. Besides that I'm also going to give you guys a quick little bit of alpha in terms of how to think about Bitcoin in a long-term way because on Wednesday we actually got interest rates getting hiked plus the fact that just earlier Japan came up with the announcement yeah you know that part where we're going to raise interest rates so that you know our people are going to stop suffering and our currency is going to stop crashing and yeah they took it back real quick which is going to affect the U.S. US bond market, which is going to affect the rest of the assets, especially Bitcoin. Anyways, before we get into it, if you're new here, welcome. My name is Xuan. I've been publicly documenting the success rate of these Bitcoin trade calls that I've been making daily for the last year and a half. And currently I'm at about a 75% win rate. I tend to be right just a tiny bit more often compared to when I'm wrong. So that gives you a pretty good reason to listen to me. Then here's the other thing you're going to want to pay attention to. We made a second channel recently where I'm just posting a lot of alpha about trading. So if you want to check out that channel, feel free to check it out. You'll find it down The link in the description box below or whatever. Otherwise, let's get into the video. So just to kick things off on Bitcoin, we have a bullish daily bias, right? This is after sweeping out this key level yesterday. I was saying like, yeah, okay, we're just a little bit uncertain. I don't really want to just straight up recommend longs, but neither do I want to recommend shorts. And I'm really glad I did because take a look at what happened yesterday. Like, we ended up getting some up and then we ended up getting some down, and then we just chopped around for the rest of the day until today where the Asia session finally picked up some steam. And in just like the first few hours of today, like not even the London session yet. We've already gotten more price movement than, you know, the last 48 to 72 hours combined. So there is a very clear reason as to why I keep telling you guys to be cautious. Like, one of the most valuable skills that you can possibly learn as a trader is to be able to spot the market conditions that are not going to be ideal for your system. I know for a fact that my system thrives in trending conditions where price is just moving really cleanly. This is when the system is able to just jump in at some point, get out at a very high probability, at a very high win rate, and that's like easy money. The problem is, just because we know Like, for example, I'm saying this from experience after working with some students, especially the ones that kind of just start getting into trading. Just because they understand something in theory doesn't mean they're going to be able to execute it, or there's going to be some base part of their brain that's going to go like, oh, price is moving, oh, let's get in. Then they just fail to wait for the ideal market conditions to be present before they start executing. And the market conditions alone will dictate the success or failure of your trades. Because case in point, even if yesterday, for example, right, this was a trade that I ended up taking yesterday. Now, Grant, Now granted, I ended up getting stopped out breakeven, so I didn't actually lose this trade. But still, I wasn't asking for a lot in terms of this target, right? We got a liquidity sweep during the New York session, and then we got a CSD on the 5-minute chart, and then we got a pretty aggressive movement, at which point I was really happy about. I was like, all right, this is surprising. I was expecting today to be a very low-quality day. It's also the reason why I did not call this trade on public on X, because I already knew what kind of conditions I was operating in. The last thing I wanted to do was to get you guys into a position where something like this would happen. I might have got out at breakeven because I have a rule where every time price goes up, especially if it goes up by like more than 2R at some point. Like, take a look here, that's my original entry. We were at 2.8R at some point, and the moment price goes above 2R, I'm just like, yeah, it makes absolutely no sense why I would continue, like why I could even stand the chance of losing money on this trade, especially once it has moved this much. So usually at that point, I just move my stop to breakeven, and that's how I protect my downside. I think that's the exact rule that I use, by the way. Feel free to copy that. But the key thing here to understand is when your market conditions are terrible, this is what happens. And this is not something I can predict. Now granted, there are some leading indicators that I can use that points towards the fact that that day is very likely to be pretty low quality, such as for example yesterday, right? We were saying in order to be bullish, price actually needs to tap here. In order to be bearish, price actually needs to last this. And in both cases, by the time any of these things happen, it's not going to be within the same day anymore. So we might as well just wait for the next day, right? Because right now trying to force a trade you know, in these, like, in the middle of nowhere, is going to be pretty risky. So granted, that's the reason why I did not call this trade publicly yesterday. And good thing I didn't, because some of you may have gotten stopped out. But if you take a look at today, right, it's a lot more clear. Because not only do you have a bullish daily bias, if you take a look at the 1-hourly chart, you finally have that CISD above that line that I was talking about, which is right here, right? Now that you've gotten this bullish CISD, price is clearly in bullish order flow. Now guess what? Today is going to be a way easier day to execute compared to Yesterday compared to Wednesday, heck, even compared to Tuesday. Setup for today is going to be pretty straightforward. You have a 1-hourly PD array over here that's a bullish order block, and you have a 1-hourly fair value gap over here. Just to go down into the 5-minute chart to break it down a little bit further, Asia session gave you a pretty convincing CIC towards the upside, which means that overall order flow is already bullish. Now all that means is that as you approach the New York session today, you are just looking for continuation. And so literally between the hours of 7 AM to 10 AM, wait for a retracement into either one of these key levels that I've drawn out on the 1-hourly timeframe here. You're going to look for a retracement into those levels. You're going to wait for 5-minute to give you some sort of a CIC towards the upside, and you're just going to jump into a trade, place your stop, and you're going to take profit at 2R. Potentially you could even go for more by targeting some daily levels. Well, we don't really see any daily levels. There's not really any 4-hourly levels as well. But on the 1-hourly, you can see the price is currently taking out some sort of key level, which kind of means that there is a potential where price is going to retrace before continuing. But in the event that today ends up being a pretty volatile day, we're going to head all the way up to— well, I would say that is a pretty reasonable target. Or is that a reasonable target? Well, let's take a look at the daily volatility. So far, the low of the day today is at $76,200. The high that we're targeting is at $79,500. That's about $3,000. On average, we can expect about $2,000 of daily price movement for every single Bitcoin day. So maybe that target is a little bit too ambitious in the sense where, like, $76,000 recently, we can expect $78,000 by the end of the day. So setting a target there would be a bit too ambitious. So in the event that you jump into a trade here, the correct thing to do is to simply take profit at 2R. So let's say that's my entry, that's my stop. Well, I just take profit at 2R, and that's going to be a pretty solid trade. But the one thing that you definitely want to make sure is that once you get into these key levels, this is just like, this is just step one. This key level over here acting as support is kind of like my idea that I have about the markets. But, but just simply having a trade idea or simply having an idea about what the market's going to do does not automatically turn this into a valid trade setup. In order to turn this into a trade setup, you also need the market to give you some evidence that it agrees with your idea that you have about the markets. So what you need to see is ideally some sort of a 5-minute CISD. That's why I added that as a condition. Now, if you have heard me mention like order blocks and PD arrays and CISD and liquidity, and you feel like I'm speaking in Chinese, don't worry. I made a video recently where I break down all of these concepts in a very beginner-friendly way. Now you'll find that at the end of this video. I'm going to point it somewhere on the screen. But for now, just make sure that once you get into either one of these, you just need to make sure that you have that before you enter. Without this, no bueno. If you enter without seeing that 5-minute CISD confirmation, you're going to have a pretty high chance where you're going to get stopped out or faked out. Now, the last scenario that I want to mention before I get into interest rates or the bond markets or whatever is that there is a possibility also that by the time you watch this video, like price will not retrace into this fair value gap below. It might just kind of come into this one right here. In fact, it already has retraced back into this order block. You might just form a new bullish order block, at which case that is the new kind of key level that you take advantage of on the 1-hourly. By the way, if I do get into any trades today, I'm going to be calling them on X. None of my Bitcoin trades are gated behind some signals groups, although I do call like forex trades or even live trade forex with the members of bootcamp like once a week. Which, by the way, if you've watched this channel for a while now and you feel like I'm the right guy that can get you to where you are right now, to just making consistent profits with trading, I want you to book a call using the link in the description box below. Like, we just did some, you know, data collection recently. I basically asked the team to go through the entire list of students that we have, especially the ones that are active and, you know, actively putting in the work, because I really wanted to know the total percentage of students that we have inside the program that are actually funded or have gotten the result. And you know what? The answer actually shocked me because total at the moment we have 46 students, right, that are active, or at the very least they have, they just didn't like kind of drop out after spending a week inside the program. We have 46. And amongst the 46 total students that have put in some sort of consistent effort, 31 of them are currently actively funded where we have their funded certificates to show for it. That is a funding rate of 67%, right? Out of 46 total students, we have helped 31 students achieve the promised result that we kind of promise on the program. That is a success rate that no other program in the industry can claim because they simply do not care about student success, but we do, and we try everything under the sun to make sure that you succeed as a trader once you start working with us. If you would like to be the next success story, if you are tired of putting in effort and spending time on the charts without seeing anything in return, or worse, seeing you lose money, you want to fix that, first link in the description box below. And if you're still here at this point, I'm going to give you a little sneak peek because you actually stuck around for the, you know, quote unquote sales pitch. I'm currently rebuilding the entirety of Bootcamp from the ground up. I'm refilming all of the course modules. In fact, right before recording this video, I just recorded a London session masterclass. Where I break down exactly how to trade the London session, where you know a lot of the times trading London could even be easier than trading the New York session. And obviously, I've never talked about trading London on this channel because all of these videos are exclusively for the New York session. There are big changes coming to the entire program. It's only going to get better from this point onwards. Highly encourage you to click the first link in the description box below right now. But otherwise, let's get into the bond markets and JPY. So it's not a surprise at this point that the bond markets are sitting at, or rather, the ten-year bond yields for the US government bonds are sitting at 5%. Now, this is a very major psychological level because we have not been in 5% for a very long time other than 2024. Now, 5% is very significant because this means that, okay, if I was like some big institutional investors managing like tens of billions of dollars for my clients' kind of money and I needed to generate them some sort of return, guess what? I could have a pick between, you know, putting it in the NASDAQ or the S&P 500, which are incredibly You know, AI-focused. And also, the moment that bubble pops, there goes the entire market. I stand a chance to lose a lot of money. It's also very overheated right now in terms of the price action. Or I could look at, you know, something super risky like cryptocurrencies, like Bitcoin, right? Or just any sort of altcoins. Well, this is also a pretty risky investment. Or I could throw my money into US government bonds that has a yield of 5%. What that means is that I get to get a 5% return In order for investing into something really safe. Because the only way this investment does not pay me is if the US government literally goes into anarchy, at which point the least of our concerns is going to be money or generating a return for our clients because like the world is gonna end. As an investor, if I have that option that's gonna pay me 5% basically risk-free or trying to invest into the stock market or invest into some other riskier assets, guess what I'm gonna do? I'm gonna take this loophole because it's safe and it's gonna give me like a return that is, you know, outpacing inflation or at least the official inflation numbers. So what this actually means for the overall economy, Especially the Federal Reserve, is that they're put in a situation where they're going to be forced to raise interest rates. And obviously they're not going to raise interest rates because of the US bond market, but the bond market is just one factor that I discussed. They raise interest rates right now. In fact, on Wednesday they actually raised interest rates because inflation is running really hot thanks to, you know, the war. Because of the war, energy prices are up like 18% or something, or like there's an 18% kind of like inflation kind of number at the moment. And obviously like energy affects every other industry. You'd need energy in order to produce food, to produce, you know, everything. And so Inflation is running super hot, and so they're going to have to raise rates. So both of these factors combined puts crypto in a state where like the macroeconomic situation is just really going against Bitcoin. If you look at the last couple of bull markets, especially the biggest ones, namely 2020, right? That was one of the biggest bull markets in existence. Like that happened because the macroeconomic conditions back then was kind of like a rising tide lifts all ships kind of moment. Interest rates were basically at 0%, and then you have the government like printing money like crazy. Both of these factors combined, even if like the 4-year cycle or all of these other conditions were not really met purely because of the macroeconomic situation at the time, it would have gone into a bull market regardless. But this time it's the opposite, where even if a lot of the factors were to be present— for example, let's say we get a clean market structure shift right now, we get a clean, you know, CIST on the weekly chart, some major macro movements, some major news announcements or whatever— Bitcoin at that point may still not go into a bull market because of the macroeconomic environment that you're dealing with. Easiest way that I can explain this is that But back in 2020, when you have like really good macroeconomic conditions for risk assets, it's like when you're riding your bike downhill. You know, at that point you're just kind of enjoying it. Even if you decide not to actively pedal, you're still going to be moving. And if you actively pedal, guess what? You're going to be flying. But compare that to the opposite scenario where you're riding a bike going uphill. If you don't pedal, guess what? You're going to go backwards. And if you pedal, you're going to be struggling to really get up that hill. And that's the current situation that Bitcoin is in right now. So to answer the question of, because a lot of people have asked me at this point, like, do I think, okay, once we hit $83,000, which we most certainly will, because right now we have relatively equal highs over here, when we hit $83,000, are we going to, like, is that going to be the top and we're going to continue dumping? Based on what I understand about macroeconomics and based on what I understand about price action, the fact that, you know, currently this is still incredibly bearish and currently we're just operating within a range. That's the range high. We swept the range low recently. And so we're going for the range high. Once we sweep the range high, you're going to go for the range low. And combined with the fact that we have a key liquidity point right here that hasn't been tapped yet, all of these things combined, yes, I do think that at some point we are going to revisit especially $50,000. And until something changes in macro or something very, very convincing happens in price action, kind of shows itself, I'm not going to be changing my mind. But if things do change, I will change my mind and I'll be the first to let you know about it. So subscribe if you don't want to miss that. But otherwise, here's that video about order blocks, CSD, and liquidity that you can check out. That's explained in a very beginner-friendly way. And over here is another video about how I have managed to achieve an 80% accuracy rate when it comes to reading the daily bias day in, day out. Check it out.