Bitcoin: Is The Bottom In?

What's good, guys? Welcome back to another video. So yesterday was an interesting situation where got the overall direction correct, but obviously the entry was invalidated. It was seeming pretty good until, you know, news decided to screw us over here to do a quick reflection on this just to help you guys be able to anticipate this better, of course, and for myself as well, because I like to hold myself accountable. And speaking of which, that puts us down to 65 out of 79 of the last videos since February. And this breaks our one and a half week kind of winning streak on these YouTube videos. But otherwise nothing too serious. We're still above an 80% win rate. So yeah, to all of you that are new in this channel, just know that we're right more often than we're wrong. So you're in the right place hopefully. Anyways, I'm going to do the reflection first and then when we get into the analysis for today. But yeah, this reflection is going to help you guys a lot because I had this exact same question asked yesterday during the Inner Circle bootcamp call. Do that twice a week. And one of the students basically asked me like to break down what happened yesterday because it was seeming like it was going good until it didn't and how to, you know, kind of prevent this in the future or to counter this kind of like manipulation kind of price action. And so I'm going to get into that. So real quick, what ended up happening yesterday is that because of news, price actually just went higher than we initially expected before continuing to go downwards. And so that leads me onto my first kind of like take tip for you guys is that it's the same situation as what happened all the way back here. Basically on this day, if you guys remember, when I made the call, I was like, okay, even though the lower time frames is showing that it's bullish, but overall the higher time frame trend is towards the downside, right? In terms of daily order flow. In terms of the overall order flow, it is bearish. And so do not be tricked by this price action thinking that it's going to go higher. In fact, the only reason that it's going higher is to retrace back into some kind of higher time frame order block before for price ultimately dumps. And this move here is to trick many people into thinking that, hey, price is going to go up, but in reality it's actually going down. And that's the key takeaway here. And so in order to determine these moves or whether or not these are false moves, and this is going to be the takeaway is that we keep in mind, like the thing that helped us get over, or rather not get tricked by this, is that we kept the higher time frame flow in mind, meaning the higher time frame is going down and we have clear reason to believe that, you know, it was still going to continue to go down. This brings me on to my tip for, for you guys in this move, which is yesterday, if you guys remember, the daily chart was pointing down, right? The higher time frame is down. The weekly chart, we had reason to believe that it was going to go to $100,000 and that has been hit. And then on the one hourly chart as well, it is in bearish order flow. So keeping that in mind, it's just price on the lower time frame just went a little bit higher than what we initially anticipated before ultimately giving you guys the direction. And so once you keep the higher time frame flow in mind, you'll be able to see, see that these are just, you know, false liquidity sweeps, right? False moves if price continues going down. Right. And that leads me on to kind of like the second bit of reflection. So yesterday we had news, as you know, discussed in the video. And the thing about news is that there are many occasions where news actually gives you a very clean move in the sense that yesterday the prediction was at A, B and then C, basically retracing here and then continuing back to the downside. But with news, sometimes there tend there can be these manipulative, you know, false moves. And this is not surprising. But there is a difference between, you know, something that is not surprising versus something that, you know, you can anticipate. Because the truth is this was like you wouldn't be able to anticipate this. Like I couldn't just tell you right from this get go that hey, you know, this was going to be A, N and D and then before reversal, basically this is X. I couldn't tell you that. Now there was a possibility of that, but we had a clear bias and we had a clear know idea and ultimately the price action just went a little bit higher before going down. And that's normal. But what we shouldn't be doing is to try to predict these moves because it is next to impossible. The goal of, or rather the job of us traders on a day by day basis is not to predict moves, but rather to prepare for any scenarios that can happen. Basically thinking in terms of probabilities and whatever probabilities that happen, whatever scenarios that happen, we just act accordingly. Right? Basically, okay, we have planned plan A If this happens, then, for example, on Twitter yesterday, you guys followed me on Twitter. I would have given you guys the update, right? We get the changes that are delivery here, and then, you know, to start taking a short. In fact, this is where I started taking a short, which got stopped out. And that's perfectly fine. There's a very clear difference between, you know, taking a trade where everything in your system has lined up, but then for one reason or another, usually because of market conditions, or in yesterday's case, news, we got stopped out before price, you know, continued heading in that direction. In that case, it is not the problem of our system. It's more like market conditions. There is a very clear difference. And I think this is a problem that a lot of beginners face, which is they take a trade and then it loses. And they think that it's their system that has a problem, it's the strategy that has a problem. And then they start looking for a better way to improve this strategy or to look for a new strategy altogether. This is not a problem with the system overall. Like, we're right about 80% of the time since February. So ultimately, this was just market conditions. It's not surprising. But this is also not something that you can predict now. You can kind of account for it by, like, for example, yesterday, something I could have done better is to say that, okay, potentially you can get A and B. I didn't mention that I was. I think I was too confident in this move to kind of, you know, predict that. But still, the goal here is just to, you know, differentiate between what is a systems problem and what is a market conditions problem. And so with that out of the way, the entry for you guys yesterday, if you were watching, you know, this whole move play out, would have been this retracement into this fer gap right here where you could have taken the next entry all the way down to 100,000. And this was a really clean move overall yesterday. Big news day. And that leads me on now to the analysis for today. And yesterday, the daily candle closed really bearish. But you have just retraced into that weekly F gap that I've been talking about for about a couple weeks now, maybe three weeks. And so this F gap has already been filled. And so far you're already seeing some kind of reaction from Price in the sense that today we have been, you know, putting in very bullish price action. And so today is probably going to end up being another one of those days where the higher time frame is going to be misaligned. With the lower time frames. You guys remember on Tuesday I told you guys that hey, even though yesterday's candle was closing bullish, there is a daily favor gap over here that I expect price to get rejected from. And so this is one of those days where it's kind of a level two day. Now just to give you an idea of what that means, the way I grade my trade ideas and the way I grade if today is going to be a good day for trading is I grade it between level one to three. Level one means that, you know, not enough things are present to where like today's definitely not a trading day. It's just too unclear. It's rangy, it's choppy or whatever. Like you do not know what is the clear direction. Level two, which was this day is when you know the higher timeframe is kind of like adding up. Like you know, like you have a clear scenario and price is getting there but it's not fully there yet. So put it on your watch list. But it's definitely not tradable yet. That was this day right here. And then you have level three, which is a trade ready day, which was this day right here. We caught the move cleanly. And this day right here, which we missed the entry, right? We were wrong on the entry. But overall the direction was super clear. And that's an example of a level three day, right? It's in other words like an A plus day. Today is very likely going to be a level two day because the daily bias is bearish because yesterday's candle closed bearish. But on the weekly chart you just filled in a bullish fab which means overall, like in, in a higher time frame, you're actually expected to go higher. But then if you take a look at the one hourly chart right on the daily chart, you would be looking to trade this bearish today, right? You would be looking for taking, you'll be looking to take shorts today. And so the condition that will need to happen in order for us to, you know, just flip bullish is for this candle to close bullish. So then the next day when the candle opens up, we can look for a retracement down below the daily open before writing a move higher. Now obviously tomorrow is Saturday so it's not going to be a trading day. You shouldn't be trading on Saturdays in the first place because there is very little volume and it's usually going to be a very choppy day. But like come Monday if you get, you know, Saturday and Sunday closing Bullish Then you can look for a retracement and boot. Right? Like super easy. It's going to be much more obvious. It's going to be much more of a high probability day. Now that that's out of the way, just letting you guys know that, hey, today's probably not the highest probability day. Still going to break down any potential setups that you can take. But just so you know, this is not a day where, you know, things are lining up with my system. And so I'm going to avoid this day because my goal is to, you know, follow my system. And whenever there are things that are not adding up with my system, I'm not going to take it. But I know that, you know, every day these videos get about a thousand views. So there are a thousand different unique views and not all of you are using the same system as I am. So I'm just going to give you guys my take on what I think is likely to happen and you know, the probabilities or rather the scenarios that are likely for today. So on the one hourly chart, the thing we are looking for because it is daily candle close bearish, is that you want to look for price to retrace into some kind of PD rate before the New York session so that you can trade it lower. The reason why it's slower is because yesterday's candle was bearish. Okay, so you'd be looking to take shorts right now at what time is it? 6:00am in fact, right now it's already 6:30am New York. You're already inside the February gap. And so once you start seeing lower time frame shift in order flow, you can start trading this lower. Targeting the yesterday's daily low from reasons that I've already discussed, this is probably not going to get hit. Also for another reason, yesterday's candle was very volatile, meaning the high of the day was 105 and the low of the day was 100. That's a 5k daily range. Usually markets move from periods of high volatility to low volatility, which means you go from aggressive moves to ranges that's just a normal part of the market and you go from ranges to high volatility moves again. And yesterday we had a high volatility move. So today you, you may also end up with, or rather you are very likely to end up with an inside bar. Meaning an inside bar is a daily candle that does not take out the previous daily high or the previous daily low. Basically, just stay within the daily range. Like based on my experience, today is probably Going to be a little bit more choppy. Although we do have USD news later, in fact three at 8:30am so because today is a news day and also today is nfp, you know, non farm payrolls day, there is a chance that you could just continue another volatile move to the downside. You never know. Or you could just start breaking up higher right away. Like I'm going to break down the scenarios for both of that to happen. And both of these scenarios revolves around this one hourly fertility gap here. If you break above this one hourly fertility gap, come down to find support roughly around the hours between 7:30am to 8:30am, basically when the news hits potentially 9:30 as well. If as long as you do not break below this February gap right here, then there is a chance that you go higher today. Note that I'm talking about this from the one hour hourly chart which means you want to see a candle close above this ver gap before you even consider anything bullish. So that'll be scenario number one which is the bullish scenario. Now this is again counter trend because the daily chart is pointing towards the downside, the weekly chart is pointing towards the upside, the one hourly chart is pointing towards the downside because we have bearish order flow so far. Like you haven't broken out of bearish order flow. In fact you will not break out of bearish order flow until this block here gets closed above. Basically until you return back above 105 you are not fully, fully bullish yet in terms of order flow. In this case you are having time frame misalignment. I just want to make that clear. Scenario number two would be bearish, basically expecting bearish continuation. So this is Asia. London has broken above very convincingly and so today is very likely going to be kind of like an A, B kind of C setup, just like what we were anticipating yesterday, except we got a M, D and X. X is reversal. So today, you know, maybe you could get AMD as well. But I don't think this is super likely where you get A and for D to happen you would need to do a move something like this over the next couple of hours. All right, the next few hours. So today on the lower time frames this is a B, you can potentially look for a retracement lower in terms of the one hourly. Do we have any fair value gaps to take advantage of? Yeah, potentially. This one right here, it's a tiny one and potentially you have one over here where if you retrace back into either one of these levels, you could look for a long opportunity towards the outside. But again this is very risky because this is a bearish favorite gap. If you get rejected here like you are again counter trend trading. But if you are, if your system, you know, thus is open to something like this, then this is also possible. But just again understand that you are trading into bearish order flow. That's a bearish order block and that's a bearish fiber gap on the one hourly chart. And also the daily bias is pointing towards the downside. Now we move on to the bearish scenario and for what needs to happen in order for this bearish scenario to get confirmed. Basically you want to start seeing a change in state of delivery. So for example 5 minute, you want to see changes, state of delivery, retrace and then going down. This is the exact same setup that I caught in on Twitter yesterday where after price returns back into this bearish order block that we were talking about, you get the changes there delivery, price has breaking down, retraces back into the changes there delivery. And you know, the ideal situation yesterday would have been for price to just start heading down. We did not get that due to news. And so that would be the same setup that you will be looking today. Like you just want to see signs that you know, price on the 5 minute chart is forming bearish order flow. If that happens, then just continue trading it down all the way back to potentially the Asia high to, you know, where you can take some profit off of the table and potentially Asia low, where you definitely take a lot more profit off the table and potentially the previous daily low, which again, I don't think that is very likely from experience because of how volatile yesterday has been and also today has been. But again, they have news so it's tough to say. But overall like both scenarios are possible. I'm not going to make a call today again because like things are just not adding up enough for my system to work here. And in fact this entire week has been kind of tough, but we've still managed to pull it off. Like there is a virtue in trading that says that, you know, patience pays. We as traders are not paid based on the quantity of decisions that we take, are more in the quality, which means waiting if needed for high probability days and high probability setups to form before, you know, going all in on those. That's a much more sustainable strategy for long term trading or like long term profitability. But still for you guys who you know, are eager to get into a trade today, those will be the scenarios I'm pretty sure I'm not missing anything. But either way, the hours leading up to like 7:30am to potentially 9:30am is going to be extra volatile today due to news. Hard to say which direction it's going to go based on what the lower time frame is showing. I would say the odds are that it's going to go to the upside. In fact, if I had to put my money somewhere, I would be looking for a long situation. But just like I'm totally open to taking a long today, especially from lower timeframe price action. It's just like yeah, this is a level two day. Let's discuss where you know you have, you can start, you can start to see where price is going. Price is already kind of showing a reaction, but it's not there yet. And so this probably concludes my trading week for, you know, this week. I'm probably going to be looking for setups next week instead and just taking the rest of the weekend off. But hopefully all of the advice that I've shared in this video helps you and gives you a very clear picture of what to expect today. And, and if you watch until this point so far I feel obligated to tell you this, but if you'd like to work with me one on one, yes, me and you to get funded over the next 60 days, then feel free to click the link in the description box below to check out what we offer here at Bootcamp. It's basically just a very systematic way of getting traders from zero to funded within 60 days. But otherwise, if you enjoy these analyses from the smart money perspective that has been right about 80% of the time over the last four months, then feel free to subscribe and turn on the bell notification because I'll be coming to you guys with the daily videos during the weekdays and on the trading days. Otherwise. Guys, I'll see you in the next one. Bye Bye.