The Art of Crypto argues Bitcoin's recent $10,000 drop isn't a buying opportunity. He says "buy the dip" fails in irrational markets and traders should short instead, targeting 59,300 USD for Bitcoin and 1,736 USD for Ethereum based on order-block and market-maker sell patterns.
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What's good, guys? I'm back. For the last couple of days, I was busy with a bit of traveling. Never would I know that bitcoin would drop more than $10,000 in these last couple of days. But one thing's for sure, if you follow my Twitter, like on the day that I wasn't, you know, able to have time to make a video, I did at least post some live trades. And yeah, this one right here ended up really well, right? We ended up getting a 5R out of it. And so even throughout this entire dump, like, we're still one of the only channels out there that is, you know, actively making money. This is very reminiscent to the days back in November, if I'm not mistaken, where as the market was dropping, like, really aggressively, I was one of the only people not only calling for you to short the market, but also telling you not to buy the market because, well, now all of those bull posters from back then would at best be sitting at break even, but most likely they would be deeply in the red right now. You know, what's worse is that these indicators know influencers, these traders on Twitter and YouTube, they make these statements so irresponsibly that all of their followers end up buying as well into a market that is fundamentally falling. And if there's one thing that I really do want you to understand is we don't buy dips. Buying the dip sounds good on paper, right? It sounds good logically, where you know, you're getting a discount and instead of buying Bitcoin at 100,000, you get to buy Bitcoin at 65,000. Conventional logic doesn't work in the markets because here's the thing, right? Like, the difference between a financial market and, like, a real market, right? Let's say you go to a supermarket and if usually you can buy an apple for like a dollar, and today it's on discount, like, you can get the apple for 20 cents. Oh, you. Even if you didn't want. Even if you weren't feeling like an apple today, you would probably buy it because, well, it's on discount. It's a great deal. Like, it. It's not the same in the markets because there is no value to, like, you cannot pin a kind of like fair market price for any asset, right? Bitcoin doesn't matter if it's forex, doesn't matter if it's stocks. The price of that asset is whatever the market decides it should be. And when I say the market, I mean, like, the market participants, right? The combination of millions of buyers versus millions of sellers. All of these transactions, they end up, they culminate into what is price. But at the same time, like, there's no, you know, kind of like consensus. Oh yeah, the fair market price of one bitcoin should be $35,000. So anything above $35,000, you're buying it at premium. And anything below 35,000, you're buying at a discount. There's no such thing. Like, we can make predictions, we can make estimates. But in general, like, guys, just because things are falling doesn't mean that you should be buying into it. Because here's what you need to understand the market. A falling market is fundamentally a down. A market that is in a downtrend. If you've ever heard of the saying that the best money in trading is made from trading with the trend where the trend is your friend. Guess what, when you're in a downtrend, you're supposed to be shorting. That's why we're also like, if you guys have been making money throughout the last like three months while the entire market's kind of bleeding out, you guys are doing way better than the average kind of crypto, bro, at the moment. But anyways, that's ran over. Like, you can tell this is something I'm very passionate about. Like, I have been burned way too many times by, you know, conventional logic and buying the dip. Oh, yeah, you know, buy blood. Yeah. Guess what? Nobody knows where the bottom is going to be. We can make guesses. You, ideally, when you're putting your hard earned money on the line, you don't want to be putting that money on the line based on guesses. Anyways, that aside, now that I'm back, let's try to, let's try to get into the intraday setup and again, follow me on Twitter if you want to follow along any live trades. Like, unlike people that kind of gate this behind signals groups, it's on Twitter for public, for the public to see. And I also publicly track my trades. Right now we're at about an 80% win rate since 2025 over the course of 175 trades taken live publicly. So anyways, let's get into it. So far, we are dropping. Yes, we're dropping. Guess what? When we're dropping, we're looking to sell, we're not looking to buy. And I know, like, oh yeah, liquidity level is in sweat. Guess what, it can still go lower. Oh yeah, we're in some sort of weekly bullish order block. I know. Guess what? When you're in a downtrend bullish order, blocks tend to get broken. So at the moment, like, we're just going to be looking for shorts. All right, that's end of story. Now, as for where the short target could be for today, I can see that there are some relative equal lows left behind at around 59,281 on the Binance chart. But otherwise, in the event that this downtrend continues, it wouldn't be surprising to hit 50k. So in case there are anybody, if there's any one of you here that you know, you, you have bought the dip and your liquidation is anywhere before 50k, just understand that there is, there is a real risk that you could get liquidated. So I don't know, two things you can do right now. One is try not to buy the dip next time because nobody knows where the bottom is going to be. I know that you buying the dip right now means that there is a chance that you may be able to catch the bottom and to have the bragging rights. Oh, yeah, bro, I caught the Boston man. Look at, look at me. I'm so great. But, you know, guess what? In the market, there's a popular saying that you can either be right or you can make money. Now, you don't have to be right to make money, and even when you are right, doesn't guarantee that you will make money. I know goes against conventional logic, but it's kind of going back to what I was talking about earlier, where conventional logic doesn't work in a market that is fundamentally irrational. So anyways, we're looking for shorts. Like, read over a promise. We're looking for shorts. And, like, I wouldn't be like, I cannot call the bottom. Like, we can make estimates, we can make guesses, but nobody really knows anybody that claims to know. Like, sure, they could be right, but, like, what's the track record here? You know, and ultimately, I don't try to play a losing game, which is also the reason why I've been able to maintain an 80% win rate over the last 300 days in a bull market that is quite a bit different and quite a bit harder compared to past bull markets. And now that we are, you know, kind of in the middle of a free fall. Oh, yeah, bear market. We're still making money. And that's the beauty of trading. You don't need the market to go up in order to make money. And the market's going down as long as you read it correctly and as long as you position yourselves in good areas you can make money all the way. Going down, ignore this. But otherwise back to the daily bias. We have a bearish daily bias which means we're going to be looking for shorts here and going down into the lower time frame. This is going to be the order block that we're going to be looking for as well as this favorite gap on the chart right now which has not yet been completely filled. Besides that, we also have a potential liquidity point over here and right. I'm doing now what I'm doing right now on the one hourly chart is just marking out levels that where price may, you know, give a reaction today. And one of the other things that kind of stands out to me at the moment is the fact that we have something like a three drives pattern here where you have a high, a second high and then a third high coming into some sort of a higher time frame for a gap. And this kind of screams out to me one thing. If you, if There are any OGs that have followed this channel for like the last year, this is a market maker sell model and or at least a potential market maker sell model. We're going to go down into the five minute chart just to kind of break this down. And yep, the Asia high has already been swept. Right now all we need is some sort of a CISD on the five minute chart sometime during the New York session today for which I can give you a much more accurate kind of time frame actually which is going to be 10:00am U.S. right, 10:00am today we're going to get USD news which means the ideal trading window or like the ideal time that you're going to look for the CISD to happen on. Five minute chart is the hour leading up to the news to the hour after the news. So basically from 9 to 11 that is going to be your most ideal trading window. Now what you're basically looking for is for price to like price is able to go above this high. That's what the Asia high. But you don't really want to see a hourly close above, you know, this F gap at the very least. So basically you can sweep above. Right? Just basically go for a four drives pattern. Right. That will really kind of like hit the nail into the coffin or whatever that, that, that statement and whatever that sentence is supposed to be. The brain's not really functioning right now. But yeah, if you get that full sweep that is. But you're definitely just going to want to look for that CISD towards the downside on the five minute chart especially around that news window and you're going to be all good. That is going to be your ideal, like the most ideal setup for today. And as for intraday targets today, like, it's going to be pretty straightforward. You have a couple of, like, relatively equal lows here on the one hourly chart. Now, given how volatile the market has been, like, it wouldn't be surprising to, you know, hit 59,300. But there is no guarantee that it's going to happen today. So just based on conservative estimates, I would probably lean towards just taking some profit at 2R 3R. Because one thing you need to understand is that the market always moves from periods of high volatility to low volatility, which is also why after major dumps and major pumps, you oftentimes see price kind of like consolidate for a bit before the next leg happens. So far today, it's looking like more of a consolidatory kind of day. So in the event that you get into a trade, like, you know, just take a 2R, take a 3R. Like today's looking a little less volatile. So we got to kind of take into account the market conditions. Now, of course, if you start breaking down and you see that price just start shooting down, feel free to, like, if you happen to be looking at the chart and you haven't set your TP yet, feel free to just monitor it. Like, as long as price is dropping really aggressively. So safe bet that you will get more than a 3R. But the, you know, the requirement is that you kind of have to be in front of the charts while it happens. But if not, like, yeah, it's pretty straightforward. Even if you take profit at the Asia lows, that is already Asia low being 63,500, even if you take profit there, like, you're already going to end up with a solid 2R, potentially even 3R. But otherwise, I know this video has been a bit more ranty than usual, but there are some things that I have warned all of you like time and time again. And I was also one of the people that was screaming at you basically since the 10th of November that there is nothing bullish about bitcoin ever since we got this CISD on the weekly chart here, like, it's already been in a downtrend and there is no indication that it was going back into an uptrend. So a, if you, if, you know, if you've been burned by these bull posters, maybe consider dropping this channel a little subscribe because I try not to lead you into some hopium right. I'm always giving you the most rational kind of analysis. I'm just saying things for how they are, which is probably also the reason why I don't get that many views. But secondly, yeah, market still in the downtrend like that. I've seen so many people get burned by buying dips, myself included, that I am truly passionate about this. Like don't, don't, don't buy dips. Like it's always so much safer and so much less headache to just wait for the market to kind of bottom out and then you get that kind of like confirmed sign of reversal. All right, get in there. When you get in at that point, price is not going to spend very long before it just kind of takes off and you get to save yourself from losing a whole load of money on the way down and you know, potentially catching a bottom. You think it's a bottom and then you get stopped out and then it goes lower and then you try again, you get stopped out again and by the time that you actually catch the bottom, it's like you've burned half your account. And right now whatever that position is, it's just not worth that much. So yeah, don't buy the dude, do the opposite. A market that is going lower can always go lower until proven otherwise. If that's, that's the one thing that you take away from this video, it's that. So anyways, I'm just going to look at Ethereum real quick. Ethereum, obviously we're heading for that weekly kind of liquidity level over here. You don't really have as much support on Ethereum compared to Bitcoin in terms of the daily chart. You have a bearish daily bias as well. Are there any targets that you could go for today? That's going to be 1736 right there. That's going to be an intraday target. Pretty straightforward. Going down into the one hourly chart, you are going to see a bearish order block right here. So less of a three drafts pattern compared to Bitcoin because you have already gotten that CIC towards the downside on the one hourly chart. So this block here is going to remain as resistance until proven otherwise. And if you go down into the five minute chart, the Asia high has already been swept. So right now you're looking for just New York to continue towards the downside. So if you end up getting CISD towards the downside, Ethereum is looking considerably weaker compared to Bitcoin. So in the event that you are prioritizing a short, which we all are prioritizing a short today. Ethereum is probably going to be a better idea compared to Bitcoin just because of relatively how much weaker it looks where, you know, it's already starting to break down. And the target for today intraday is again going to be 1737. Now you may not hit that today, so just make sure you take some profit from. Just make sure you take some profit at 2R, take some profit at 3R and you know, you can leave the rest as a runner to, you know, in the event that price becomes super volatile. Now the second thing you want to keep track of Solana, right? Solana. Let's take a look real quick. So far you are still in no bearish daily buys. So far, your weekly, yes, Solana is looking just like super weak. The only issue with Solana based on what I can see compared to Ethereum is that the target has already been kind of taken. So Solana is looking considerably weaker compared to Ethereum actually. But like, I think the setup in terms of the actual setup for today, it's a little less clear compared to ETH because you know, the highs are kind of all over the place. So, yeah, I would recommend Ethereum and Bitcoin over Solana for today. Hey, purely just based on the five minute chart, like, yeah, it's looking considerably, you know, kind of stronger. But in the event that you get that cisd, that is going to be your trigger also at the same time, taking your profit at 2R 3R and you're going to be all good. But otherwise I will be posting. If I do take any trades today, I'll be posting them on Twitter. Not, not a guarantee though, because today is my last day here in Taiwan. Gonna be another travel day tomorrow. But otherwise I'll see you guys on Twitter later. I'm gonna be posting any live trades if I do take them. But otherwise, just on a closing note, if you have lost a considerable chunk of money this time around, I have made a video specifically for moments like this on how to deal with this kind of pain, how not to do some stupid things, and how to ultimately recover. If that sounds interesting to you, I'm gonna link it right here. Feel free to click it. Otherwise, see you, ciao, ciao.
