Bitcoin: Is The Bottom In?

What's up, friends? Welcome back to another video. Last Friday we played this to absolute perfection, whereby I said that, you know, just because you come into this zone doesn't mean that you just immediately start shorting because it ended up going higher than I initially anticipated. But once the CISD happened, this high never gets taken out again and then boom, big dump. So call that to perfection. Hopefully you guys were able to make some money off of that. That puts us at 89 wins out of the last 110 calls that we've made on this YouTube channel so far. And to those of you who are new here, welcome. Probably at the right place because we tend to be right more often than we're wrong. And in today's video I'm going to try to do the same. Kick things off on the weekly chart. Last week we closed Bearish. So technically the weekly bias for this week should be bearish. Although again, this is the weekly fer gap. We are still within the weekly F gap until we start bouncing out of here. Just understand that if you're a swing trader or if you're a longer term trader, this is still a level of support that you would be looking to buy from. But this is not a moment where you're panicking and, you know, just trying to sell. And secondly, like you have this order block over here from the weekly chart, which means even if you were to come all the way down here, you would still be pretty safe in terms of, you know, long term, right? As long as this low doesn't get violated at 100,000 basically, or like 98.5, like the long term uptrend is still very much intact and it's only a matter of time until you get a second leg up. Just understand that at the moment we may be going through a retracement. That's why you're seeing dumps. Previously we went through 1, 2, 3, 4 weeks of retracement. This time around we are right around the four week mark. Now, while I may not be predicting that we're going to be pumping immediately during this week or next week, what I'm saying is that this is all par for the course. After explosive movements up, it's very normal to get retracements. And just because it's happening on a higher time frame means that, you know, it's going to take some time and in many instances we're not able to wrap our minds around how long this really takes. So just understand that. So far so good, at least on the higher toe fring we are still very much intact and don't panic. And speaking about panic, expect there to not be a video this Wednesday. This will be the first weekday that I will not be posting a video. I previously I even posted when I was at the airport like just to get it out to you guys because I have a commitment to you guys. But this Wednesday I will be traveling right around the time that I would be posting these market updates. So if I do post something it will be super late. But if not just expect there to not be one of these market updates. But anyways, going down to the daily chart, right now we have a bullish daily bias because yesterday's candle closed bullish. But at the moment we are trading right into bearish resistance in the form of this folding up and we still have this bearish resistance over here. Now eventually again this will all get broken. Like eventually the resistance will cease to be resistance and they will get traded above. Then price will find this, you know, prior resistance and flip it into support. However, at the very moment are not quite there yet and so take into account that right now we are in a bearish zone. Although purely going off of the daily bias we should be looking for longs. However today is Monday and also the fact that we do not have news. If you just take a look at news at the moment, Monday we do not have news. Tomorrow will be a much better trading day compared to today. Wednesday we don't have news. Thankfully I will be traveling so probably Wednesday is not going to be a good day to trade anyways and then we have news on Thursday. So ideally we want to be taking the majority of our trades around Tuesday and Wednesday. Sorry, Tuesday and Thursday rather than Monday, Wednesday and Friday where we do not have USD news. Now if you guys recall from two weeks ago I had a really rough patch with these calls. Like sure, overall I may have an 80% win rate out of the five days in the week I probably made a correct call like once and the second time we would just kind of break even. And that has to do a lot with the fact that on that week we had one news day. When there is a lack of news it's really tough to trade the markets because let's just say that on Tuesdays price action tends to move in a fashion that is much more clean. Whatever that we expect to happen tends to happen. Right. Just to give you an example from last Friday at Friday we had 1, 2, 3, 4 pieces of USD news. And so all of the manipulation and all of those movements that are called Basically happen and then boom, right? It's a clean movement. You cannot quite say the same for days where there are no news. And that's the biggest difference. So if you're a trader that takes this game seriously and if you just want to be consistent, just understand that technical analysis is not all there is to the game. A lot of the times we just focus on like oh yeah, what's the new technical analysis method that I can learn that will, you know, potentially give me an edge? It's not just about the behavior of price. Right? Because that's what we focus on when we learn neotechnical analysis concepts or when we focus solely on technical analysis. It also matters what is the behavior of price at certain timings. News is a type of timing event, right? We know that. We know for a fact that on Tuesday at 8:30am no, actually on 10am we will have USD news. And so we can very likely expect something to happen here. And once you pair that with your understanding of behavior of price, that's when you get really high probability opportunities. Now speaking about high probability opportunities, if you would like to work with me one on one. Yes, me and you to learn this system for yourself that has helped me achieve an 80% win rate over the last six months since February when I started publicly tracking this, feel free to click the first link in the description box below and I would recommend that you do it within the next three days because we will likely not be able to take on many more calls after that point. If you're an intermediate trader that has been doing this for a while now, but for one reason or another you have not yet found consistency. You win some money but then you lose a lot. Feel free to book a call if you're interested, but otherwise let's get back into the video. So on the daily chart we've already established the fact that we are ideally looking for longs today and the moment we go onto the one hourity chart we can see that there are a couple of areas of interest that we want to take into account. Although in my opinion that is all going to be noise because we have liquidity over here. Right. The market is always at any given moment, as long as the market is moving somewhere, it is moving towards some kind of liquidity objective. And at the moment we have relatively equal lows over here, which means that I am fully expecting the Asia low to get swept sometimes during 7 to 10am today. So you're going to sweep this low first before any sort of upside movement is possible. That's what I think taking along here does not necessarily mean that we are wrong because technically this is still a big order block over here. But if we take a trade here and we just start going long here, we put ourselves at the risk of these relatively equal lows and having our stop loss swept before price actually reverses. So ideally for today, this is going to be the level that I'm going to watch, which is 114. If we sweep this level and we get some sort of lower time frame change in state of delivery, like all that means is that you want to see order flow being bullish. And just to give you an example of bullish order flow, like let's look at this leg here. Let's say that this is an order block. Price respects the order block and continues to make a new high. Over here you get a new order block right here. Price breaks up, comes back down to retest, it respects it, heads up, and then once more you have this bullish order block right here. Price goes up, comes back to retest, it respects it and starts making new highs. So that is an example of bullish order flow. That is exactly what you want to look for when it comes down to 7 to 10am if you get this sweep of this low right here, you do not enter before you get that 5 minute change in state of delivery or at least 5 minute confirmed bullish order flow. And the reason why this matters so much is that, number one, it's going to save you from, you know, getting into false entries last week, last Friday. There is a reason why I emphasized heavily on the fact that just because you retrace into this one hourly bearish order block here does not mean that it's an automatic entry. Now, sure, at this point you would have, you know, entered the fair value gap and you had some kind of a down move. But you will come to realize that the largest move only happens after we get confirmed changes in state of delivery. So no order flow, confirmation no entry. We can have a hypothesis what price is going to do in this case, sweep this low and then go up. But until the market actually confirms your hypothesis, you do not enter. As a trader, you trade what the market tells you, not what you think you want to see from the market. Now, second of all, the reason why this is important, as you head down into this level, I want you to just picture this. Order flow is going to look pretty bearish, right? You're going to have low lows and low highs and it's going to be bearish order flow and you do not want to be trading into bearish order flow and you do not want to be taking longs into bearish order flow, right? You at least want to wait for order flow to shift and then you can enter here in case you stop there, target 2R. And it's going to be a pretty easy day. Now, easy day is one thing, but one thing you need to realize, very important is to take into account the market conditions. Taking market conditions into account has been the one thing that has saved our bums from many potential lost trades. Because today is not a news day. Which means in terms of if we could rate like the quality of the days, right, like on a day where there is multiple pieces of news, it could be, you know, a 10 out of 10 baddie. But today unfortunately is more of a, more of a six, right? You know, it's tradable, but you know, there's some flaws, right? A couple of red flags. And in the case of today, like it's a Monday and it's a non news day, so very likely today's price action is going to be a little bit more choppy than on a high quality day, right? Ideally, save your financial capital, save your mental capital and you know, pursue the tens, pursue the baddies rather than try to, you know, close a six, for example. So ideally you're not going to be trading today, but if you do want to trade today, I've already kind of given you the setup. The invalidation for this is pretty straightforward. Until you get that five minute exchange instead of delivery, you're not, you're just straight up not getting into a trade. Just understand that overall you are still in a bearish, you know, kind of higher time frame zone. And so this could very well, like if you take a look at this, this is potentially a heads and shoulders formation. You could very well just break your low, that liquidity point right there and you just start heading lower instead of, you know, going higher. And there are just so many more like retracement areas down here, right? You've got that order block over there, you've got fair bit gap over there. And overall, like it wouldn't, yeah, again like if possible, save your capital for a better day. But you're going to take a trade today. That would be my setup that I would be looking for. And just understand that these are just intraday trades. This is not the grand scheme of thing kind of trade. This is not a swing trade. Because if you were truly looking at swing trades, you're potentially looking for a retracement back down into the discount zone within this range. So that would be between 113300 to about 113200 before you even think about entries or potentially even $113,000. If that happens, we're going to be in a much better place to take on some swings or just slightly longer trades. But for today, that will be the setup and last thing to talk about. Just as a word of caution is that yes, price could just start pumping from here on out, but the only risk is I probably wouldn't be taking this trade because you have relatively equal lows, which means that there is a very high risk that you will get stopped up and then price continues moving in the upwards direction. Remember, Asia tends to be accumulation. In this case London is also extended accumulation because, well, it has not yet taken out either the Asia low or the Asia high. Which also means that in the New York morning, if you get the manipulation and you can start distributing the other way and that's what you can take advantage of. If that doesn't happen, then yeah, you know, just take it easy. Not every day is a trading day and in the case of today, definitely not my preferred trading day. Anyways, guys, see you in the next one. Bye. Bye.