The Art Of Crypto argues Bitcoin's bull run isn't over, pointing to a weekly fair-value gap that previously supported lows. The market needs a bullish weekly close to confirm a bounce, with key intraday moves tied to kill zones and news at 10:30am and 2:00pm.
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What's good guys? Welcome back to another video. In this one I'm going to give you a long term and I feel like I've looked for the coin just on where we're at in terms of the bigger picture. But I'm also going to get into the intraday setup. And speaking about intraday setup, the one in yesterday ended up being a bit of a no trade. Although we were overall correct in terms of the overall movement. Just to give you an idea of what I'm talking about, yesterday we mentioned that either one of these levels were going to be possible. You just needed to look for a N5 chunky state of delivery. Unfortunately on this initial one we did it. Why get it? And on this second one, by the time it hit it was already like 11:30 New York, which was outside of our trading window. And usually I don't take trades outside of any kill zones, especially when there aren't news. And so even though the overall direction was correct like we did end up actually taking a trade from it. And so right now we're still sitting at 128 wins under the last 164 trades called. And anyways, time to get into the long term outlook for bitcoin. So just to break down a couple of things, first of all we're going to take a look at this weekly favorite gap right here. And by the way, this long term outfit was requested by Ananda inside the vip. If you would like the opportunity to just ask your questions directly and get answers directly, feel free to sign up to the masterpass and sign up to vip. It's going to cost you less than a signals group and it's going to get you way more results than a signals group ever could. Like most of the members inside VIP have already made back their investment with it. Just a couple of weeks but anyways let's get into this FE gap right here. This is where we're at at the moment. If you guys recall from a few weeks ago, actually even a couple months ago, I did mention already that in the event that we get back into this F gap, this would be the kind of support zone that I will be looking for. It doesn't mean that I'm just going to place a long here and just hope for the best. Ultimately there is the difference between my opinion which is I think that the market's going to bounce from here. I also do think that based on past data and based on how the system works, which is pretty fine win rate system, that this is a reasonable area where we could find a bottom. Just to give you some examples of what I'm talking about, this previously was a rep a. This was also a bottom that I called live here on YouTube. For those of you who are following me. A few months ago, you will recall that I was telling all of you guys that if you are swing traders, buy into bitcoin at that spot because, well, ultimately it's going to pump and kaboo it did. And right here, this bottom also came at a weekly fabric. And this bottom here came at a weekly fabric. This bottom here came at a weekly fabric. So ultimately, based on the behavior of this current bull run, so far, throughout this entire bull run has been forming at weekly favorite gaps. So right now, just because we're here means that there is a higher likelihood that we are going to find a bottom here and we are going to bounce up from here. But it is still too early for us to just execute right here, right now. Now the second thing to consider is the overall market structure. Now. Now one of the concerns that some of you may have, and this was brought up earlier during a dukem Q and A call which was yeah, in the event that you come back up into this order block right here, wouldn't that just become resistance for Price to alter e just yeah, like Bora Dover and Price in a dump from this point onwards. The answer that I have to that is that you need to consider the overall market structure. If I just draw out market structure as all right, you can see that we are still very much with it. Bullish structure. Until this low is broken, you are overall in bullish market structure. And when you are in bullish market structure, guess what happens? Bearish order blocks, bearish resistance levels tends to just get completely destroyed. Right? It gets a blamethrough. Like here's another order block right? Boom, boom. It just completely kind of disregards it. And so while you are still in bullish market structure, we continue to trade with the trend. And just to kind of illustrate an example, I don't know how many of you watching this have been in this bull market since like 2024. Well, like even 2023. But if you recall back then the sentiment when we started hitting 69,000 or 70,000 and people saying, oh yeah, this behavior is not like the bull run. You know, you hit a new all time high before the halving, blah, blah, blah, blah blah, this is the top. All right. Sure, mate. Yeah, you may be right. But you ultimately missed out on a further $50,000 worth of movement. Same thing here when we get 100k, everyone was calling that, oh yeah, this is the top, you know, distribution, whatever. Yeah, sure, maybe you were right for a few weeks, but you also ended up missing out on another 20, $30,000 worth of movement. And the point that I'm trying to make here is that there is a very big difference between what we think. Like you may think that this is up, I don't like, like at the end of the day, right, There's a difference between what is our opinion, what the market's actually showing us. At the end of the day, if you want to make money, you trade what the market's showing you. And at least so far, this structure is still bullish for the most part. Like in terms of every higher time metric, you are still bullish, really bullish. And the only way this changes is if this swing low gets broken. And I understand that $75,000, which is a swing low, is quite a ways away, but that's also the way that hiring hyper structure works. So yeah, my, in terms of market structure was still really bullish. And I, based on my kind of past data, I would say that the likelihood that we bounce from this point onwards is higher than the likelihood of us just completely dumping now. Again, this is likelihood. This is something that has been, you're kind of right about four out of five times throughout this bullet, right. Taking a look at this W gap. So that was one instance, that was two instance. There was three instances, four instances. So yeah, for the past four instances this has been pretty right so far. Versus if you think that this is the top, right, if you think this is a top or whatever and price is going to, you know, dump the ball, runs over whatever, but so far you'll be right a grand total of about zero times because, well, price continue to make new highs. So I'm not saying that this is guaranteed to, you know, be the bottom and you know, things are going to go up from here because ultimately there's one thing certain about the financial markets is that nothing is ever certain. But at least based on the probabilities as well as what we have been able to observe this forehand so far, this is a decision that ultimately could be odds in our favor. And when it comes to trading, if you understand anything about trading, it's not about, you know, single trade basis. It's not about your performance over the course of like a single trade. It's more about, it's making sure that you make more money than you lose over the long run. And so far somewhat We've been able to observe throughout this bull market this has been a, you know, higher probability outcome than a lower probability outcome. And so I like my odds on this. Now again, just because we have you kind of entered this level that I've been predicting over the last couple of months does not mean that I immediately buy into this. Because you still need to wait for the market to give you some sort of confirmation because so far this is still looking pretty bearish. And the way that confirmation is going to come is we get a bullish weekly close this week. Then at the very least we can start looking for longs next week. But definitely right now, try not to place the limit quarter just here. Like you can do it, feel free to do it. I'm not going to stop you. But I'm just sharing what's work for me. And the reason why I talk about this is because like there's been quite a few instances where, you know, for example, let's say you think that this F gap is the bottom or like this fav gap is supposed to be the bottom or whatever. You place a limit and boom, you get stopped out before the booth continues. Same thing in, let's say this what block right here. Maybe you thought this was going to be strong support, price breakthrough. I just, just a few weeks ago a lot of people were saying oh yeah, 105,000 was strong support or a hundred thousand was strong support. Yeah, guess what, you're 10k below that point right now. So there's a very big difference. Again, so like setting a limit based on where you think the market should bottom is like one out of every ten times if you get it right or one out of five times. But again it's about the odds and the probabilities over the long run. It's not based on single trade basis. Like you want to just overall make the objectively correct decision or the objectively better decision. And that involves jumping into the markets with some and that involves jumping into the market with a systematic plan and setting a limit based on what you think it should be. The bottom is not a systematic plan. It's just you trading what you think. Hopefully that kind of gives you a overall idea what I'm looking for in terms of the high country. It feels really bearish right now. You know, the fearing re index, you are very much the interfere at the moment. But just understand that that's also okay. Right? Everything is temporary and doesn't mean that all runs over at least based on market structure and everything. And we're still going to be looking for longs, but not quite yet. So anyways, just to remove all of this stuff right here, let's start off with the clean slate and let's start heavy into the intraday trade. Operate now yesterday's candle closed. Bullish, right? Which means that if it was supposed to be looking for locks and if I zoom down into the lower time frame, I can see that there is now a bullish change in state of delivery. Right? This is not highest fatherly signal because overall have still been placing in really bearish workflow. In fact, I'm sure there were instances in the past before. Like in fact not so long ago on the 11th of November, you got a bullish change to set delivery but then you still came into a bearish oil block and you dumped and if you take a look at even here you came into a bullish change of state delivery here and then you still didn't break above this bearish oil block and you eventually don't. So let's see if this is going to be different. In this one you have a string state of delivery, but the next point of resistance is going to be over here. And price hasn't quite tapped into that area yet. I'm not mistaken, at least on the chart based on this, like I'd say this is looking like a better kind of like long setup as compared to the past couple of examples. And ultimately, even though the market is bearish, but just because of the bullish ad kind of close, as well as the behavior that we've been able to observe on the monetary chart, I'd say at the end of the day we need to trade what the system's telling us and not what we think. And, and even though this may feel bearish, we learn to trust the system. And this has been proven kind of again, for those of you who have been watching our videos over the last 300 days or so, you will have noticed that there were many instances where I was feeling bearish, but just because the system was pointing towards the bullish direction, I called a bullish trade and eventually that ended up being the right decision. I'm not saying that this is guaranteed to be successful, but I'm just saying like we're choosing to follow the system over, you know, what may be our own opinion. So, so that's just the way that I'm approaching this at the moment. But I'm not going to disregard the fact that you not only right after this bullish delivery, technically you also have the bearish delivery over here. But what is positive for me at the very least is the fact that this is a February gap that has been respected so far. So in the event that as like basically as long as you don't break below this level you're going to be good and the timing that you're going to want to look for this level to not get breaking below basically just could treat the hours of 7am to pen a.m. but but there's a little bit more nuance to this because today you're about to get news at 10:30am as well as 2:00pm at 2:00pm you can get FC. If you know anything about, you know just the financial markets, you know that this is a very high impact piece of news and usually happens During a day left 1C is that you may get an extended accumulation in the sense that not much could happen between now until the end of the New York morning. Now usually we would trade during the New York kill zone between the hours of 7am but on a day when we're at late use the true movement and the true like the biggest moves of the day could happen a little bit later closer to both the m 1pm or even 2pm which is the hour core news to the hour of news. Let's keep that in mind as we head into today. That potentially betray for today could happen a little bit later than usual but otherwise let's start getting into the lower time frame now just to observe like if there is a potential long setup and so far the fact that we have swept below the Asia lows give me, you know, a little bit more hope because usually the Asia low acts as kind of like a manipulation, right? London is the session of manipulation. If you get manipulation below the Asia lows with big deggy bias towards that to towards the upside, this is a really positive signal because eventually you may get distribution during the New York morning as you enter into the afternoon. So so far this is looking pretty positive. I suppose already like in terms of 5 minute chart you're already putting in pretty bullish order flow. So overall you're just going to be looking for longs. Especially if by the time you watch this video price is making higher highs and higher lows then yeah, just continue to momentum trade this higher. If by the time that you watch this video, let's say during the New York morning hours price is putting in like bearish or flows in fact in it then that's going to be a bit of a red flag because it means that this bearish HS delivery on the one hourly time Frame may be the one that's being inspected instead. And if you get that happening, it means that this order block is going to be a bearish order block and price is going to start going lower. Now, am I going to take a short trade if that happens, potentially I'm going to update you guys on X. Speaking about X, I actually wanted to post some trade updates yesterday, but as you know, cloud flag went down and as much as I tried, I just could not. Well, first of all, I could not load Twitter, like it just wasn't working and secondly, when I tried to post, it just wasn't allowing me to. So I do apologize if you guys were looking forward to an update. Twitter was just straight up uploading yesterday. But I did post some updates to the VIP group. So yeah, I guess if you want direct access to me if you're free to check out vip, but no pressure on that. So yeah, the overall bias in terms of the system today is still going to be pretty bullish, but I wouldn't be surprised if I end up changing my bias later on. I just got to react in real time to the market conditions and that's a skill that you kind of need to be like a good trader, right? Just the ability to react to check my ever changing market conditions because it's always going to be, you know, evolving and changing. Now today, unfortunately, like the bias versus the one Audi order flow is a little bit different. So you just got to play it smart, got to play it safe. But overall, like, I see a world where you can go long, I see a world where you can go short. Unfortunately, the best solution is I'm just going to ask you to, you know, watch what I post on X. There are days, there are many days in fact where the bias is really clear. The everything's just really clear and just like, okay guys just short or okay guys, just go long. Today's not one of those days. And this was reflected in the past week where we, I think basically want four trades in a row. And those four days were like super straight. Call it like us just short and, and you're going to be good. Yeah, I wish I could have given you a better call, but I hope that I've at least prepared you for just kind of the scenarios that are possible for today. But otherwise the core trading periods that I'm going to be looking at personally is going to be between the hours of like 9am to like 11am because we have a piece of news at 10:30am means by 9:30 you may potentially get a setup again. I'll keep you vice versa on X. Feel free to follow me there. And then in about 10 days, I'm going to be hosting a live master class breaking down this exact system. That's got to be an 80% win rate over the last 300 days live. If you want to sign up, click the link below, but otherwise, see you in the next one. Ciao, ciao.
