Bitcoin: Is The Bull Run Over?

What's good guys? Welcome back to another video. Safely made it to Hong Kong and getting started with filming a Hong Kong vlog this time around. So look forward to an update to the personal channel. But anyways, getting back to the call that I made on Wednesday before, you know, before I departed, we ended up, you know, flipping that previous resistance into support before Price pumping. It was a trade that I called on Twitter. And so again, like I personally would not be in the trade because, you know, I already mentioned that I would like time frame alignment before I took that trade. So I'm not going to officially call this as a win. But for those of you who have, you know, made money from this trade, like, feel free to let me know if you managed to get a 2R down in the comment section below. It does really help me out and at the very least keeps me going on, you know, this journey of making daily videos. Like for example, like I was camera shopping until like 20 minutes ago where I rushed all the way like through, you know, through the city just to come back and record this video out for you guys. So yeah, you know, if you guys find value from these videos, do let me know it. Yeah, just keeps me going. Gives me a reason to show up every day and to make sure that I get this video out to you guys. But anyways, besides that intraday win at the time, we now have the kind of like larger picture, bearish scenario playing out in the sense that I already mentioned the fact that this was a fab gap and Price ended up getting rejected from the fairway gap and now is heading lower. So let's see what we are going to do about this, especially from an intraday perspective today. But I'm also going to get into the longer term perspective as well. And to kick things off, let's start with the long term. So far we are, you know, going a little bit lower than I would like to see on this bullish order block right here. And that is of course a bad time because usually when it comes to bullish order blocks, you want to see Price just come into the order block before bouncing, you know, confidently and aggressively. That is not what is happening at the moment. This leads me to believe that there is a chance, or at least there is a likelihood. Well, there is a pretty high likelihood that we are going to tap 107,500, which is this previous liquidity point right here. Now previously I would have expected this liquidity point to be kind of like the bottom because Price ended up bouncing from this bullish order block as well as this larger time frame weekly order block right here. Just to show you guys what I mean, this is, is a weekly order block. Price was in the process of bouncing out of it confidently until we got this kind of price action. And so what's next? Is this over? Are we going to start going into a downtrend on Bitcoin? Well, the answer is that I think so. At this point. There is enough proof to where I may think so, but, but, but, but, but, but as traders, we do not jump to conclusions. As traders, we do not try to predict what the market is going to do next. Or rather you trade what we want to see from the markets. It's very important as traders that, you know, we wait until all of the available data is available and then we read and react. And in that case, the conclusive level is going to be here at 17,100. In the event that you break below this level right here, that would be a daily changing character, would also be a weekly changing character and potentially even a change in order flow, because a break of this low right here, especially of Weekly close underneath 108,000, it would mean that this bearish order block right here was respected. And the point where it's, it's respected is because, well, once you come into this bearish shoulder block, you fail to break above it, but you also form a new lower low. And so that's a really bad sign. Ideally, you don't want price to close below this because then this level right here will become your new bearish block for price to come into before we go into a further downtrend and potentially tapping or rather going below the 100,000 level. Now, there is also a chance that, you know, this may be the bull cycle top maybe, but I want you guys to just pay attention to the larger picture here. This is still a level of support. This is also a level of support. And even without that level of support, we do have a 5 gap, which is a imbalance in price right underneath that liquidity level right there. It is not big, but still it is a valid one. And essentially you may just go for a little, you know, liquidity sweep here before one last push either to form a lower high or a higher high. And I think that may be it for the rest of the bull run. And this is expected or at the very least, I'm expecting this to happen sometime closer to the end of the year. So right now we may be going for a little retracement period, which is completely normal by the Way every time in this cycle that you have formed a new major high. For example here, major high, you go for a retracement period of like five to six weeks. Over here, once you form this new high, you go for a retracement of like three, four weeks before forming the next one. And when you take out this high right here, that is also like 8 to 12 weeks of retracement. Once you take out this new high. Well, this was the previous all time high at the moment. Well, this back at the time was the previous all time high and you went for like a 6 month retracement. Same thing for each and every single time where you form a new low during the cycle. Now, there are a lot of reasons why this may be the case, but I don't think it's important for us to understand that. What's important is that this is basically as per usual. The fact that we're spending this much time going into a retracement is completely normal. Markets always move from periods of high volatility to low volatility and then from low volatility back into high volatility. So it's our job simply as traders to stay alive during these moments of chop, during these moments of retracement before clear movement comes back again and then we can take advantage of it. You will make way more money in two weeks of this type of price action or three weeks of this type of price action than you will from 12 months of this type of price action. It's all about understanding the market conditions, playing our cards right when the time is right and playing our cards safely when it is not yet our time, which is something you probably wouldn't be going all in on a pair of like twos and threes in poker. Maybe you would, I don't know, maybe you're that type of player. But one thing's for sure, objectively speaking, that is a subpar, you know, decision quality. That is a subpar decision because you're going in very aggressively with a very weak hand. So if you extrapolate, sorry, I don't want to use fancy words here, but if you, you know, just expand this out to like 10,000, like a sample size of 10,000, guess what, more likely than not, you will be losing money. So this is a negative expected value play. So not to get too deep into that, just understand that no panic so far. Like if the market conditions do flip towards the short side, it is what it is. Like, we are still going to be, you know, as traders we're still going to be trading that towards the downside. And in the meantime, I will let you guys know if I do take profits on my Bull Run bags. I've already taken a little bit of profit back over here. I've already mentioned it. Like, I'll let you know if, if I sell everything. Basically, again, the goal is just one little disclaimer here. The goal is not to catch the absolute top. The goal is simply to leave the cycle heavier than when you came in. As long as you have that kind of mentality, you're going to be safe and you will have enough money to, you know, lead you into the next bear cycle where you will actually have free capital at hand to take advantage of any dips, any generational dips before the next Bull run begins. So at the moment, so far, again, like, we're starting to see signs where it's looking bearish, but we're not going to be super certain until a week later and especially like by next Monday, I think we'll have our answer. So not too long left to wait and definitely don't make any panic decisions right now, even though again, the signs could be starting. But again, this is just our thoughts at the moment. This is not what the market is actually telling us. But going down to the daily chart, because we closed Bearish yesterday, we are going to be looking for a bearish trade also. In fact, this is starting to seem like a bearish change in state of delivery. Again, we're not, we're going to look past this. We're going to just wait, be patient. But just understand that so far I think the signs are about to be in. This is the further gap right now that we have to pay attention on the one hourly chart. So in the event today you retrace into this further gap. This is going to be a pretty straightforward setup. And by the way, Intensity's intraday calls, if you're new to the channel, understand that you're probably in the right place because we tend to be right more often than we're wrong in the sense that so far since February of this year, I've done about 135 calls, not including the one on Wednesday that ended up winning. It was the right call, but I, I didn't take it. And out of the 135 calls, we have been correct on them on 108 of them. So that's about an 80% win rate. So if you're new to the channel, again, probably at the right place because we write more often than we're wrong. So today the intraday setup is going to be pretty straightforward because we have a bearish daily bias. We have also a bearish hourly bias. And the fact that we have a hourly PD array that we can take advantage of, we have just going to take a short from that point onwards. Let's take a look at the Asia session just to see if any of this lights up. And the good news is that the Asia high has not yet been swept. Now, for those of you who wondering why I'm bringing up the Asia high, it's because during a bearish day, ideally you want to take advantage of any price above the Asia high to go short. Similarly, if we're long, we want to look for a false move, right, some kind of manipulation below the Asia lows before we distribute back to the other side. The fact that we have currently multiple relatively equal highs above the Asia High leading into the one hourly PD array leads me to believe that this could be the setup for today. So in the event that you are going to go into this level right here, all you need is some kind of five minutes change in state of delivery and you're going to be all good to go to go short. Now the reason why you have to wait for that five minute change in state of delivery is because like I want you to imagine on route to this level right here, you're going to be in bullish order flow and you do not want to be shorting into some kind of bullish order flow. So ideally you want to see going to wait for the market to give you some signs that, hey, you know, bearish order blocks are being respected, bearish fair value gaps are being respected. And at that point, only at that point do you dive into a short. That is how you as a trader are able to mitigate a lot of risk or jumping in when there are only premature confirmations. That's been an issue that you've always struggled with. Well, CISD is going to fix that for you. All you want to see, like I'm going to put this in layman's terms, is you would just want to see kind of like two lower lows and ideally at least two low highs. Once that happens, that is, you know, definitely a market structure shift. Now, if you want cisd, it's going to be when you get bearish or blocks being respected. Now, those longtime viewers here on this channel, you guys, you guys will already understand this. For those of you, for those of you that don't, don't worry, you will pick this up over the next few days or over the next few weeks as you watch this channel. But anyways, there is also a second possible scenario that could happen that you want to keep in mind, which is the fact that you just go straight down from this point onwards. If you just break down and go underneath 108,800 or even you just break down straight away and you go below 108,800 by the time that you're watching this video, then chances are this entire block here is going to become your bearish order block and you just want to momentum trade it lower. Either way, the setup for today is going to be towards the bearish side of things. Now I'm just going to take a look at the calendar just to see if we have news today. And we do in fact have news. And the reason why this is important is because ideally we want to be trading on news days. News days are when we get really clear movements such as yesterday and for example, Wednesday. Right. We did not have news and that's why the movement on Wednesday was so choppy and it was such a small movement compared to what we had yesterday. Yesterday was an aggressive dump. Very straightforward. Now news does not guarantee that it will be very clean and straightforward and volatile, but it at least guarantees that it's a better market condition compared to days where there is absolutely no news. And so again, the setup for today is going to be you want to look for that kind of sweep above these levels in between the hours of 7am to 8.30am Basically you want to look for this to happen before news. You also want to look for that CISD to happen sometime as we get closer to news. So possibly between 8 to 8:30 or if that happens, that's going to be the ideal setup. And don't worry guys, if you are not sure as to what to do, feel free to follow me on Twitter. The Art of Crypto if there is any live trades then I will be calling it here. And lastly, you can expect this move to last, you know, anywhere from an hour after, a couple of hours after news. At the very least, that is where I'm looking to close. And as for targets, again the setup always is just 2R. Which means that if you place your trade here and if you place your stop loss here, you just want to wait for this number to go to at least two. So if you get something like this, this is already a very solid day of trading. It essentially means that if you're risking a thousand bucks here, you're going to make 2,000 bucks back. You repeat this over the course multiple times a month, not even a lot. You do this five times a month, you're going to end up with $10,000 in profit. Accounting for losses, of course, like definitely you're not going to win all of your trades, but you know, you account for losses. This is something that you can expect. But anyways, now that we are done with Bitcoin, let's just take a look real quick at what Ethereum is doing. Ethereum has been, whoa, okay, Pretty bearish. Damn, okay. Very bearish in fact. So I do remember recalling that, you know, we wanted to go short on Ethereum, but I wasn't quite expecting Ethereum to just completely blow through this F gap right here. So one thing to understand for sure is that at the moment there are two ways that this can play out. One is that this is already a major, right. Both of these levels here are already major changes to say a delivery in terms of the daily chart, which means that so far Ethereum is already in bearish workflow in terms of the one up, sorry, the one day time frame. The fact that you also have this heads and shoulders pattern here is not a great sign for the bulls. So potentially, if you're holding on to Ethereum right now, you may want to consider taking a little bit of profit when you get the next bounce up and the next bounce up. There's another way that is to play out which is some kind of a range deviation. If you take a look at this as the range high and this as the range low. Once we swept the range high, we ended up, you know, retracing all the way back to the range low. So at the moment we have swept below the range low. So there is a possibility that you can retrace all the way to the range high right here to take it to take out this buy side liquidity at 4770. So that is a possibility. But just understand that so far at the moment this is bearish order flow and the next time that you go up, definitely consider taking some profits because otherwise you may risk leaving the cycle with not much. Now, in terms of the intraday new kind of trade, it's going to be also pretty straightforward. We can see here that the Asia high note, Asia high has not yet been taken, but price is already kind of breaking lower after filling in this bearish order block right here. So if I were to stick to a short, I think I'm going to stick to Bitcoin. It seems a little bit clearer at this point. But Ethereum is also valid in the sense that this is already a bearish order block price so far. If you close below this candle right here at 3920 within the next 17 minutes, then this is going to become your new hourly bearish order block. And so when you retrace into 3920 you can just take a trade to on towards the short side or take your profit at 3,820 or if we zoom out a little bit. Nope, that is seems to be the only target. So if you take a trade something like this, it will look, you know, you place your stop above the order block and you take your profit at 2r. In this case this would be a 3.3. If you place your stop loss above, far, well above this order block actually you're still going to end up with the 2R trade. So that's going to be trade set up for Ethereum just because it's looking pretty bearish and Salana, we could potentially do the same. If we close underneath this weekly order block right here, it's going to look pretty dangerous. Whoa. Okay, we've already closed below some. Yeah, like all across the board I think we're seeing some, you know, bearish changes to delivery. At least we're in the daily chart which is a high enough time frame. So this is going to be looking a little bit sketchy. I'll try to do a bit of a digging and do a bit more research and come up with kind of a longer term outlook on all of these points sometime during this weekend. So if you're interested in that, subscribe turn on the bell notification and yeah, for today I'm not going to, you know, overload you with information. I'm going to call it here if you would like to prepare yourself for whatever the bear market is going to bring. For example, if you're not confident that you're going to be able to make money inside a bear market, I can help equip you with all of those skills one on one. I'm going to coach you personally so that you're able to trade or at least get results similar to what we've been able to do here publicly. Everything's tracked. If that's interesting to you, click the first link in the description box below. But otherwise guys, I'm gonna enjoy Hong Kong for a bit and see you guys on Monday or see you guys somewhere during the weekend if I film a video. Ciao, ciao.