Bitcoin: Is The Recovery About To Start?

What's good, guys? Welcome back to another video. The trade yesterday unfortunately did not play out, but fortunately pumped the markets. So today we're going to answer the big old question. Is the bottom in? Are we going to start seeing bitcoin pump from this point onwards or are we really still in a downtrend and that we are continuing to go down below? By the way, if you're seeing a different setup, a little too windy for me to be recording at the usual spot today. So just changing the setup up every now and then. Let me know if you prefer this kind of backdrop or that one though, cuz this is actually where I'm working. This is where I have the setup usually. All right. Yeah. So before we get into the video, I almost forgot something really important which is to just give you guys an update on the overall win rate. So far we're sitting at 126 wins. And accounting for yesterday's loss, we're now currently sitting at 126 wins out of the last 161 trades called. This is accounting for yesterday's loss as well. So short yesterday may have been an L, but overall we are still, you know, winning more often than we lose. So anyways, now that the credibility is set, let's get into the video. So in terms of the daily chart, we are looking at a potential bullish daily bias. Right? We've already mentioned this yesterday. It's never too long to jump into a long after we at the very least get some sort of bullish daily candle close, Right? Yeah, we can now get into some sort of. Okay, yeah, so now that we have some sort of bullish daily kind of close, we could potentially start looking for longs. This however, does not negate the fact that if you take a look at the one hourly chart, this is as a bearish. That this is as bearish as it could possibly get in terms of the order flow. So my goodness, dude, never in. Never ever have there been crickets when I was. I don't even know if they're crickets, but like never ever did they start making noise when I was recording videos before. Always record my videos at the same time. Anyways, let's just ignore them. This is the level that needs to be broken for us to say like, okay, price is now undeniably bullish because this is the first kind of major order block that exists from, well since yesterday. And if you're able to break through this and flip this from a previous resistance into a potential support, this is going to be a really Great sign. Right now we have not yet done that. In fact, if anything, price is currently forming kind of like bearish order blocks and heading towards the downside at the moment. So this puts a little wrench into our plans because in terms of the daily chart, it's a bullish daily bias, which means we should technically be looking for longs. But the moment we jump down onto the one hourly chart, not only is the overall order flow really, really bullish in the sense that, well, we've been making lower highs, lower lows and just overall very bearish order flow. That bearish order flow has not yet been broken. And so right now we have misalignment with the one hourly chart as well as the daily time frame. Now that's not to say that we cannot jump into belong, it's just that based off just these two time frames alone, it's looking a little bit shaky. Right. This wouldn't necessarily be a day where I go all in on my risk where I'm like just super certain, okay, this is going to be the direction, this is going to be the trade. It's a less of a day like that and more of like, okay, let me see, let me observe how price action is going to play out because like, if I'm going to jump into a trade today, I better be sure, I better be certain that all of my crack here are met and I'm jumping into a good trade. Now potentially the five minute chart could give us a better signal and unfortunately it does not because right now the London session for the most part has been trading within the Asia low and the Asia high, which means that neither one of these levels has been taken yet. Which means that, well, there are two ways that this could potentially play out. I'm going to give you the long scenario first because that tends to align with the daily bias, which is you want to look for the Asia low to get taken out sometime during news. And news is something that we do not unfortunately have today. Now, earlier on in the week, there was actually supposed to be news on Thursday and Friday, but hey, US government is going through a shutdown at the moment. Which could explain the reason why things are looking so choppy. Right. Without news, there is no catalyst that drives price and that's why things are just chopping around for eventually a bigger move. So I think the play today, A is going to be no trade because, well, we already kind of marked out a very clear condition for the one early chart. But B, we, you know, if you're someone that's A little bit more trigger happy. You definitely like you absolutely need to get a trade today. Then I think you're going to look for something along the side, something on the long side. And specifically there is not a lot of DD for you to take advantage of on the one hourly chart outside of this order block. So we're not looking forward to price coming down into this order block actually, because it's. If it does, then you're going to be looking pretty bearish into sort of one hourly order flow. So I think a better setup for you instead is to just maybe take advantage of some sort of Asia low sweep for targeting these relatively equal highs. But again, I must warn you that in terms of the one hourly chart, this is still very much bearish order flow. And yes, sure you have relatively equal highs. Again, like this is kind of like a retrace before you know, further downside rather than something that looks like a bottom is in. And again, the criteria for know this potential bottom is in kind of moment, it's going to be right here once you break that level. So today just play really cautiously. I am now going to go onto ETH and Salana just to see if we have some better options. I'm also going to give you guys a couple of Forex setups actually, because if you take a look at news, we have potential for GBP and USD Canadian dollar. These two, I believe will get a pretty decent setup, at least compared to Bitcoin if you're into that. But before I do though, just want to give you a heads up that I've been pretty recording these videos for like 300 days at this point. Never once have I ever, you know, kind of broke down the system that I'm using. The good news is that I'm about to do that in about 25 days on 29 November, I'm going to be holding a free masterclass breaking down this exact system that you've seen that have gotten us an 80 win rate of the better part of the last 300 days. If you want to sign up to that, click the first link in the description box below. The signups are now public. Again, it's absolutely free. Just make sure you sign up so you know where it's going to be held so that you have all of the links and all of the information. Otherwise, let's go back into the video and let's take a look at ETH to see if potentially we have a better setup. And Eve so far is, you know, bullish daily close. Fair enough. But if you take a look at the one hourly chart, it is also pretty much the same story. This is a very key resistance that price hasn't even tapped into yet. Until you break above this resistance, it's very hard to say that Ethereum is already bullish because for all we know this could be just some sort of market maker sumo where this is smart money reversal. First impulse up, maybe second impulse up. Before market structure breaks, we have traded the market makers model time and time again. And this is one of the highest probability models out there that we have used to just take advantage of moves that nobody else sees coming. Fun fact, this was also the same model that I used to predict that bitcoin was going to drop. When we got that huge liquidation event on bitcoin, the market maker sell model was a culprit. If you take a look here, this was a higher time frame order block right here. And I mentioned at the time even that this needed to be broken before we can say that, you know, price is going to continue into bullish direction. Until that happens, we're going to just keep trading it bearish. And so boom. That's your smart money reversal right there. One impulse, two impulse up into key level break down and off you go. That is not the only example. I'm like over the last 370 days, like I've already marked out so many of them. So right now that is your smart money reversal. That's still only the first impulse up. Maybe you might get a second one, I don't know. But in terms of eth, like, I hope you guys can see why I'm saying this level is key for both Bitcoin and Ethereum. Until this gets broken. Yeah, it could just be another higher time frame resistance price comes into and continues going to the downside. So in terms of Eve again, I think the play, the correct play today is going to be a no trade just because of how shaky or just the lack of direction we're getting. Right? It's not every day where we get a lack of direction. A lot of days actually it's pretty clear. Like yesterday for example, all of the criteria within the system were pointing towards the downside. And so we looked for shorts. Ultimately we were wrong. Which is, it's cool, right? There's no system that's going to give you 100% win rate. As long as you win more often than you lose or when you win more money then you lose money. That's all that matters. And this system is ultimately one that fits the fits that Bill but it can be wrong sometimes and that's perfectly fine. It's just part of trading. So in terms of Ethereum, the only positive I guess is the fact that London has traded below the Asia low. Although you could very well just, just go for a straight out continuation. In terms of bitcoin, honestly it's just going to be a no trade call. Like I think that's the more responsible thing to do because things are looking pretty bearish. We have a very clear condition before we go long and otherwise it's just going to, yeah, just continue dumping. I don't want to sound like, yeah, you know, I shouldn't bullpost. None of the conditions are in yet for, you know, today to be a bullish trade. If anything, once you break below the Asia low, you could potentially turn into resistance and prices continue stomping lower. If anything, that's going to be the likely a call. I will give you guys an update later on Twitter around 7am to 10am but yeah, just going to do the responsible thing here. Like don't know what got into it. I usually don't try to frustrate but I guess the pressure of making these videos and like needing to make a call every day, it's kind of got to me. But yeah, things are just pointing bearish. Like again we have a very clear condition for going bullish and so until that happens, this is just patience. Until then in terms of Solana, let's take a look. If it is painting a different story and it is not most part you are also in just bearish resistance. This is your smart money reversal. One, two, impulse up. So far you are breaking change in order float right here. So in the event that you get back here, this is going to be a trade just to the short side. So yeah, all of the calls for bitcoin, Ethereum, Sol is just going to be towards the short side. It's still looking really bearish. Sure you got one bullish close on the daily chart but if we give more weight to that compared to what is currently happening and what has been happening on the 1 hourly chart in terms of the overflow, I think the one hourly takes a little bit, you know, it holds a bit more weight and it holds a bit more precedence in this specific example. So just take a look at GBP USD and I don't think there is a much of a setup at all. But USD Canadian, if you're trading forex you're going to have a pretty good opportunity. So in terms of the daily chart you're looking pretty, you're looking pretty bullish. Secondly, you have this daily fever gap right here that just got filled during the London session. It sweeps the Asia low. So this is going to be a very clear setup. You're going to look for a change in state delivery. Currently, you have already gotten that change in state of delivery, which means that this is already a valid trade setup. Just boom, boom, target like 3R, 2R, whatever like you're going to be looking for a long setup today since the one hourly. If there are any other, this also aligns with a bullish order block and you have a potential bullish revenue gap right there. So yeah, if either one of these levels gets filled and you see that bullish reaction around the hours of 8:30 to around 10:00am, it's going to be the window because news is dropping at 10am I think this is going to be the much better setup. And by the way, even if you're not interested in Forex, there's a very big lesson here for you because whatever concepts that I talk about here, whatever concepts that I'm going to be teaching inside the masterclass, they are applicable to every single market as long as there are candlestick patterns. And in terms of this, oh, it's just a chart with a different name on it. It doesn't make a difference. It doesn't mean that these concepts are not going to work. You just got to apply it slightly differently. The beautiful thing about having access to Forex and just looking at other asset classes is that in moments where there is nothing much to do in crypto, where, like for example, today, right, it's one time frame is pointing up, the other time frame is pointing down. You could make a reasonable guess in both directions. But again, instead of a, all right, I'm 90% sure that this is going to go down. It's going to be like, okay, I'm 60 sure that this is going to go down and 40% sure that this is going to go up makes it a very different type of trade. Whenever you're in moments like that, it's such a blessing to just have other asset classes where, for example, USD Canadian, it's so clear it's up. It just depends on frequent from where is it going to go up, right. So direction becomes less of an issue. It's just about finding an entry. This is a skill that you're going to learn inside a master class. This is a skill that you're going to learn inside Bootcamp. It's just the ability that no matter if crypto goes into a bull market or a bear market, if something's happening, if nothing's happening, you have options because you know how to read the charts. And that's what ultimately gives you options. And options gives you freedom. And speaking about freedom, I am now going to go enjoy my freedom. I'll see you guys later tonight on X. If I do take any live trades. And I'm so sorry for this slightly drawn out video where I can't seem to make up my mind. But ultimately, I think the good news is that we ended up on a much more correct analysis rather than trying to force something, which I think is really important. But anyways, guys, I'm going to see you tomorrow. Ciao.