Bitcoin: It's About To Happen

What's good guys? Welcome back to another video. So yesterday's trade setup, while the idea was right, the market conditions just were not there. Already mentioned that because we have so much news coming later today as well as on Wednesday and Thursday, the conditions are going to be much better, you know, heading into for example today. So even though that is the case, I did make a call and the call didn't end up playing out and so I'm still going to consider that as a loss. So that is going to put us down to 106 wins out of the last 132 calls that we've made over the last seven months. So if you're new to this channel, just understand that you're probably in the right place because we still tend to be right more often than we're wrong. But anyways, today we get into bitcoin, going to get into Solana, going to get into Ethereum. I'm going to give you the trade setup for today. Again we have news heading into later at 8:30am and so this is going to be a pretty interesting day. But tomorrow is still going to be the arguably the biggest day in the end entire month. Not only do you have, you know, CPI for the gbp but most importantly you have federal funds rate. If you would like to understand my kind of like weekly outlook because this week is very likely going to be the biggest wheat in, you know, for the rest of the year actually. Because what happens this week is quite literally going to determine if the bull market continues not I've already made a video on that just so I don't have to repeat this every single day when it's kind of like an intraday video. Going to link the video down below, check it out once you are done with this one. But otherwise, yeah, let's dive into today. So 8:30am is going to be the, you know, kind of time window that we're going to want to look for. Yesterday's candle closed bullish on bitcoin. So that's a really good sign which means that we are reasonably going to look for upside today. Now besides that, if you guys recall yesterday I marked out this fairly gap right here. I did say that bitcoin was going to fill this in and right after filling this in yesterday the price started pumping. So even though yesterday's setup was short, just understand that this is in line with kind of like a bigger picture clay here. If we take a look at the weekly chart since we are bullish, we are looking for buys underneath the weekly open so that we can write the price higher into the weekly close. Similarly, for example, let's say that we were bullish on this week here. Anytime price went underneath the weekly open was an opportunity for us to buy for an expansion towards the upside. Same thing with this candle open here. Look for buys below expansion to the upside. Yesterday, it's the same yesterday ended up going lower. I did already, you know, mention this in the weekly outlook video, but that is the situation where we look to buy and seems like so far, especially if today's candle closes bullish as well, that's going to be the weekly bottom at least for the rest of this week. I highly doubt that we're going to revisit that bottom. However, that highly depends on how the price closes today. Just looking at the one hourity chart so far, there are two possible scenarios going on right now. First of all is just following along the system, right? Part of the system dictates that we want to trade with time frame alignment, which means that at the moment the daily chart is pointing towards the upside because we have bullish daily bias. So the one hourly chart, we also kind of want to lean towards that direction. And you can see that we have had multiple changes. Instead of delivery, this is your first one and and this is your second one. So by all accounts, right, the trade following the system today is supposed to be towards the bullish direction. There is a slight problem with this though, which is the fact that this kind of looks like a market made to sell model which where you are getting the smart money reversal. So one, two impulses up into some kind of one hourly higher frame bearish, you know, kind of PD array. And the reason why we are still technically bearish on the one hour chart is because we got that CISD over here yesterday. And so this entire block, until this gets closed above on the 1 Audi chart, this is going to act as resistance until you know otherwise prove it. And today we could prove that wrong or we could respect the market maker sell model and you form a lower high here and then you start going down and you're going to revisit 114400. So there are a couple of ways that this can play out. But again like purely based off of the system, the trade for today is going to be the upside. But we are going to play this with this market maker sell model in mind because when the facts are like in front of your face, it's stupid to just ignore it and not take it into account whatsoever. The way that we're going to take this into account, by the way, is to not jump into trades prematurely. Right now, as of the time that I'm recording this, it is around 6am New York. News is going to be dropping at 8:30am New York, which means that's going to be the timing where for example, like let's zoom into the lower time frame charts if you fail to make a new high by the time 8:30 rolls around. In fact, I would even go so far as to say that the best trading window for today was going to be between 7:30am till 9:30am New York, which is an hour before news and an hour after news. If you do not get a decent setup, or at the very least if you do not start forming new highs and new lows, then you are not going to have a long setup for today. Because what's likely going to happen is that you are going to form some kind of a lower high and then you're going to continue breaking lower. Right now price is already in some kind of bearish order flow, at least from the five minute perspective. So if this continues, then you are going to be expecting further bearish price action. So this is a bearish order block right here. This is another bearish order block. So with both of these confirmations, we are in bearish order flow. What you want to see specifically is for at least this order block here to get like get blown through so that you can flip it, flip the potential resistance into potential support. So that's specifically what you want to look for. Now alternatively, we could, we may. Right, this is just a. Another kind of scenario that I'm keeping in mind here is that you are going to sweep the Asia lows, but then at the same time, the Asia lows has already been swept right before London. So at the moment things are looking kind of bearish. So the conditions for this trade is quite straightforward. You just want to see some kind of bounce and 100%, you do not want to see this low right here at 115,000 flat get disrespected. Because if this happens, then boom, you have just flipped this entire series of up candles into bearish resistance and the straight setup is going to be towards the out side. Instead. If in the event that you do get a sell side set up, meaning like if price does not break above that order block and whatever, if price actually just comes back on, retests it and starts breaking lower, then you can reasonably anticipate today to be a short day. However, I'm probably not going to be taking that setup because my system requires me to have time frame alignment. But I understand that you watching this video may not have the same system as me. So in the event that your system calls for a short that is also a viable scenario. So far it's a bit too early to tell. I wish I could give you a much clearer answer. Again, there are some days out there where the trade setup for the day is super clear, and there are some days like this where we have reasons to believe up and we have also reasons to believe down. So what I'm going to do instead is I'm going to call or kind of like make an official call on Twitter at Underscore the Art of Crypto. This is where I do my live trading. Whenever there are days where it's worth trading, this is where I will be calling the trade setups and calling the entries and sharing ideas about altcoins, sharing ideas about Alpha, whatever. Feel free to follow me at Leonardo Crypto if you would like to follow along with that. But otherwise let's get into Solana and Ethereum. So taking a look at Sorry, taking a look at Ethereum to kick things off, it's much more bearish compared to Bitcoin, that's for sure. It had a bearish candle close. So technically today you are supposed to look for shorts on Ethereum, but let's take a look about that. So before I get into that though, just remember we are still in the middle of some kind of a retracement. Either you come into this block right here or you sweep out all of these relatively equal lows from back here. Either way you are retracing in the moment and until price starts forming a new high you are going to anticipate more and more downside. But keep in mind that in the bigger picture this is just a retracement and the bull market is still going to continue. However, I highly doubt that we are going to sweep out all of these primarily because tomorrow we are going to get federal funds rate and so potentially you are just going to retrace back into this order block that is going to be the bottom. So if you are a swing trader or if you're a slightly longer term trader, then that area right there is going to be very good to take advantage of. However, keep in mind that because federal funds rate is going to be a pretty volatile event, there is a very high likelihood, or at least there is a chance where there will be a wick underneath all of these relatively equal lows before some sort of A V shaped recovery within the same candle. So in the event that you set your stop loss here and you get swapped out and you see price starting to go back towards the upside, do not hesitate to jump back in. That would be a suggestion, by the way. Yesterday's kind of closed. Bearish. So we're going to take a look at how price action is playing out and oh my God, this is choppy. This would actually be super tough to trade. But the setup for today since Ethereum is going to be towards the short side is that right here you have a bunch of relatively equal highs right before some sort of a fair Vindicap. And so the set for today is going to be much more straightforward compared to Bitcoin. But you're just going to do this with your target here at 4463. Basically you're going to want to look for a suite above 4540. That will be the ideal scenario because you would fill in the higher typhoon PDO 8. Now the reason why relatively equal highs are so important and why they work so well is because I want you to imagine like retail traders are going to be all looking at this level right here and be like, oh wow, look, Ethereum has gotten rejected from this strong resistance 1, 2, 3, 4 times. So if this resistance were to get broken, then they are, there are going to be two camps of people, right? And primarily it's going to be the breakout traders who are like, oh, super strong resistance has been broken. Oh, let's go long. And they're going to go long, right, at really high prices. And guess what's going to happen? Price is going to reverse. They're going to be trapped in their long positions because chances are retail traders are not using a stop loss and eventually with a strong enough retrace, they are going to get stopped out. And this is the essence of how the smart money likes to trade. Remember, the market is a zero sum game. For every dollar that you quote, unquote, make from the markets, you're not actually making that out of the net. Whatever you win, someone else is losing. And most of the time when you are winning, the counterparty to that is the smart money, right? The brokers, the exchanges, the funds and whenever you win, they lose money. And so if you flip that around, it's in their best interest to cause as many people to lose money as possible so that they stand to gain the most. That is the essence of smart money trading and that is also the essence of what we teach inside Bootcamp. If you would like my help, one on one to help you set up that system for me to teach you everything I know that has allowed me to achieve kind of like an 80% win rate over the last seven months. Publicly tracked, by the way. Then feel free to click the first link in the description box below and I'll get you profitable within the next 90 days. But otherwise Ethereum is going to be pretty straightforward. The other, you know, kind of contingency plan is that right here you have a bearish order block and in the event that you do not sweep above, and let's say by the time 7:30 rolls around you do not sweep buff, then this is going to weigh what you want to look for instead. Now, I'm also not saying that the target is going to be here for sure, but this is a reasonable area to take some profits most of the time though. For example, if I were to take this trade right now, I would just set my target to R, which means every dollar that I risk, I make two back. That is all I need as a trader. And truthfully, that is what most people need. You don't need like 3, 4, 5, 6, 10 Rs you just need to get 2R consistently over time. Build that confidence so that you can get to a point where you know for a fact that your system works so that you can start putting more money behind your trades with the confidence that this is something that produces, or rather this is something that has a positive return over the long term. At that point, you can imagine if I risk $10,000 here and I make 2R back, I'm making 20K. It's much better than, you know, trying to aim for like a 10R and placing yourself really tight and getting stopped out like nine out of 10 times. And then the whole time you're just risking like $100 a trade. Even when you win, you're just making like pennies. So stick to 2R, build their confidence as a trader, because that is the most important ingredient that you need to succeed as a trader. Arguably, without confidence as a trader, there is nothing else that truly matters. By the way, guys, I am so sorry for, oh, my voice sounds different or whatever. Like there is a huge. I'm always like this when I come back home, probably because of the dust or some allergies or whatever, but like nose just gets really sensitive. But anyways, now that we're done on Ethereum, those are the two setups again, pretty straightforward. Let's take a look at Solana. So Solana, so far has taken out the daily target that we set last week, which is beautiful. Right now though, you are in the middle of retracing, which means that long term we're still looking for longs. But short term, based on yesterday's daily candle close, we are going to be looking for shorts. And I think we are going to see a pretty similar setup here. Now if there is one chart that I would probably lean towards, I'm going to lean towards Ethereum because it is looking much weaker and the fact that you have multiple relatively highs there made very clear fabric gap makes that for me in my opinion a better short setup compared to Solana. But the setup for Solana is going to be the same as well, where you have this weak high right here and also the other you have this weak high right here with the fair bit gap right above. So in the event that you retrace into here 7:30, you're going to look for a five minute CISD and you're going to ride it lower. Now another reason why I would pick Ethereum over Solana for a short setup today is that compared to Ethereum, Solana does not have a bearish order block. If you take a look here, it's actually in bullish order flow, whereas Ethereum, you already kind of have a bearish order block in play. So if I had to pick one, I would definitely pick Ethereum as the higher probability play. In terms of shorts, I'm going to lean towards Ethereum as the main focus. Right. So depending on how price action shapes up later at 7:30, if it's looking like price is going to go up, I would focus on Bitcoin. If it looks like it's going to go down, I would focus on Ethereum. That is how I would approach today. Anyways guys, if you would like to get my weekly outlook and figure out exactly how to take advantage of what's about to happen tomorrow and as well as for the rest of the week, as well as if you're a swing trader and you would just like to learn kind of a longer term thesis, click the video down, click the video on the screen right here and otherwise I'll see you guys on Twitter later. I'll see you guys tomorrow.