Bitcoin: It's Going Lower + Mid-Cap Altseason Picks

What's up guys? Welcome back to another video. Unfortunately, the camera is still bugging out, so no camera for today. But just, you know, picture my hands and face on there and you're going to be good. But anyways, yesterday ended up being a loss in the sense that due to, you know, the order block and the fair value gap and stuff like that, we were anticipating a sweep of this low right here and then for price to change in state of delivery to the upside and then for price to ultimately start heading up. We did indeed get the sweep, we did indeed get the changes at delivery and unfortunately we did not get the movement towards the upside as we were anticipating. Now, even though that is a loss, it's not something that we did not anticipate. The fact that yesterday we already mentioned that there was no news on Monday, even Tuesday. Today there is no news. Tomorrow there is no news. It's not until tomorrow where we get news. Then, you know, all of this is pretty, you know, par for the course. When there is no news, the day just becomes a little bit lower probability, lower quality. And oftentimes, even though the technical analysis portion may check out, the fact that there is no news and there is not the right, you know, catalysts means that, you know, all the TA stuff will be there, but it may not play out. Honestly, I think the mistake from yesterday is simply that I made the video a little bit too early in the sense that we needed to see one hourly close above this level here before I could confidently say that, you know, we are going to go up. If you guys remember in early on in the video, that is something I did mention. But then after that, you know, in my haste to finish recording the video, yeah, I just, I just probably made the wrong call. So I do apologize. And so I suppose that puts us down to 85 out of 103 of the last public YouTube analyses that we've done since February. Today though, let's hopefully not make that same mistake and let's get right into it. So to kick things off just on the daily chart, yesterday closed bullish, which means the bias for today should be bullish. But the fact that we got so close to filling in this weekly favorite gap right here without actually filling it means that I'm really anticipating like just a second, you know, down move to fill in the further gap before we get some kind of upside movement. If you take a look here yesterday, we already mentioned the fact that there is a weak low right here that could be swept right above the further gap. So you'll sweep out the liquidity trick. Everyone thinking the market's going lower. Fill in the further gap before you start having upside continuation on bitcoin. And so basically this is still on the table even though yesterday closed bullish. I wouldn't be too quick to jump into bullish positions right away. Now, secondly, if we really try to break down exactly what went wrong yesterday in terms of just price action, like I kind of already hinted at this before, but we did not get a one hourly confirmed changes, date of delivery. Now, yes, you could argue that from this point onwards it is already in bullish order flow. However, until you break above this order block, basically, you cannot say, you know, confidently, undeniably, that hey, you are already in bullish order flow. Okay, so that was the mistake that we made yesterday. I didn't mention it, but I think I just didn't mention it enough times. And so I think a lot of you actually ended up taking this trade once this happened and you guys lost. And so I'm gonna, you know, just take responsibility, call it a loss. But then today I think we're also kind of getting the similar, like the same situation in the sense that this at the moment is a bearish order block. Right, Let me just remove all of this stuff now. So this is a bearish order block that needs to be closed above before you can confidently say that, hey, the CISD is undeniable. Until you get this happening though, I wouldn't be too quick to call long even though. Right, okay. Even though we already have a one hourly changes data delivery. So if you're going to take a long, this is going to be your invalidation. Right? You want to see price come into here, potentially even just retesting the top of this, you know, to continue upwards, taking out this level and taking out this level right here back time to remove that cisd. The target for today in terms of the long side could be 119700. That's going to be an optimistic scenario. However, as because of the fact that I'm recording this video very early today, we do not yet have those confirmations. Now, the other likely outcome for today, given the fact that we have identified this previous week low right here and the fact that yesterday you have now formed relatively equal lows over here right before a weekly February gap, I'm going to say that today could be some kind of an AMD in the sense that this is your Asia, this is accumulation London as manipulation, tricking everyone into thinking, oh yeah, you know, you got that one hourly Changes delivery, blah blah, blah, blah. Like price is going to go up. In fact this is just manipulation and price is going to reverse pretty quickly and then distribute towards the downside targeting 115700. So that is the scenario that I'm having my eye on. And the conditions for this to happen is that you need to see a one hourly, just changes, sorry, a five minute changes state of delivery or at the very least a 15 minute one. So for example, this right here is a bullish order block, right? What you want to see is for this bullish order block to get invalidated, basically broken below. When I see Price, you know, kind of retracing, doesn't need to be at the order block, but you just want to see price retrace and then for another, you know, kind of like break in order flow, break in structure, whatever you want to call it, if you see this anytime between new 7 to 10am New York or potentially even starting as early as 6am, then you're going to be all good for a AMD. Now the second kind of like scenario could also be that price just literally breaks down over the next hour. So you know, the hours between five to six, maybe five to seven, you're going to do that retrace and then you're going to continue heading downwards. So this is playing into the fact that at the very moment the one hour chart is in bearish order flow, right? This is your bearish order block. Price breaks down, comes up, fails to break above this order block and starts breaking lower instead. This becomes your new bearish order block that price needs to invalidate. And in this case, like if you just start breaking lower from here, it means that price is getting rejected off that bearish order block once more and it's going to head down. Target for today is already like pretty straightforward right here. 115600. If price continues to go downwards though, you could potentially be looking at 115200. Now a very important note that I do need to make is the fact that today is a non news day, which means that in terms of probability and in terms of the type of trading day today is, it's not necessarily the best day, right? So if you're going to trade today, one ensure that all of the conditions that I've mentioned are undeniable in the sense that you really want to wait, if you really want to be cautious and wait for these confirmations before you jump into any trades. And if you do jump into a trade, you just understand that it may not Play out. And so potentially, you could do two things. One, set your stop to break even. Once you're up by 1r, potentially take profit at 2r, potentially take profit at this target right here. If it actually plays out, instead of waiting for this one. Because today is on a news day, maybe go half risk, right? Both are worth doing. Anyways, just to illustrate this concept idea about systems, I'm going to show you a little board that I made for Bootcamp, which by the way, if you'd like to work with me one on one to get from where you are right now to trading with confidence over the next 60 days, feel free to click the first link in the description box below. Otherwise, this is a little illustration that I've tried my best to create on systems theory. Essentially, you go from input, which is, you know, the what you decide to do with the raw data in the markets, right? You take data from the markets, you go through a process. This is your trading system, right? What's step one, two, three, four, five in this case? My system is pretty straightforward, right? From the daily chart, you identify the bias. On the one hour chart, you identify order flow. And on five minutes you also identify order flow. And if all three are aligned, that is the system. If you take the right input and if you follow the right process, most of the time you will get the right output. And of course, the feedback loop is your journaling. And most importantly, this is something that a lot of people tend to just completely disregard, which is the environment, right? You cannot control your environment, but you can account for it. And in this case, we can account for the fact that today is non Newsday by playing it accordingly. These are just some core tenets that we teach inside Bootcamp. But anyways, just on another note, for all of you who have watched until this point so far, I'm going to talk a little bit about alt season right now. I know altcoins are on everybody's mind and is for the right reasons, and rightly so, because this is where most of the gains are being concentrated at at the moment. If you take a look at bitcoin dominance, like it's finally starting to fall for the first time in a while, right? If you take a look at bitcoin dominance, this is the biggest drop in bitcoin dominance in pretty much since like November of 2024, right? For. So for the first seven months, this has been the best week in terms of altcoin performance so far. Now, what are the important things that you guys need to know? Well, for starters, the main top gainers so far from last week, from in the last couple of weeks basically have been Solana, they've been xrp, they've been bnb, they've been the large caps. The lower caps are not performing as well outside of like Dogecoin, but if you take a look at others, Penguin is also doing really great because of the announcements. But if you take a look at meme coins, large cap, meme coins, mid cap coins, they're doing all right. And if there's one thing you need to understand about crypto is that money flows in cycles. Go from Bitcoin down to ETH down to Solana and XRP and BNB and basically all of your large caps and then you move into your mid caps. Right? Which means that right now we are at this phase of the cycle so far, right. Potentially even this one, which means that this one is going to be the next phase of the cycle. So you want to position yourselves accordingly and not try to catch the whatever is hot right now. Right? Sure. Go for it. At the moment, if you missed this move already, you're basically like 50% behind already at this point. Right. Solana started at $130 just a month ago, it is now up 50%. This is a large point XRP, just two weeks ago, it is already up 50%. So chances are on these large cap coins, there is a lot of market cap that needs to be moved in order to, you know, generate substantial gains. So it is maybe in your best interest to start researching what are the midcap coins that you want to look at for, you know, this next leg up when we get into midcap season. And even after you've researched this, it isn't. It doesn't mean that, you know, you should jump in right now because truthfully, because the alt. Because the large cuts are pumping like crazy, eventually they are going to go for a retracement. When that happens, it's probably going to be due to some kind of fear in the markets. And so the mid caps are going to retrace as well. So rather than jumping into mid caps right now, your solution, or rather the best practice in this case, is to start preparing. For example, on sui, this is. This one's on the top of my list. If SUI returns back into this fair value cap, I will look to buy into SUI in between, like 3.$5 to around 3.$3. And I would look to ride a move up to like 4.5 or potentially even 5 or beyond. Right. So I'm coming up with a game plan. So that will be about a 20% retracement from current price. 20 to 30% with a potential kind of like 50 to 100% gains. So that's a good risk reward. But the key here is no. If you miss this move so far, don't worry, like, we all miss moves all the time. It's perfectly fine. All matters is that you control what you can control, which is your actions, the way you are approaching this. And ultimately, that's what's going to ensure that you're on the right side of crypto, where you're actually making money and not losing money. Anyways, guys, I'll see you in the next one. Bye. Bye.