The Art Of Crypto breaks down Bitcoin's price structure: a daily bearish close despite higher-timeframe bullish order blocks. Unless price breaks above 113,000, expect intraday weakness. The creator has hit 108 wins out of 135 calls since February and outlines specific entry and stop levels for the trade.
Questions this video answers
108 wins out of 135 calls.
112,400 (break below this low may continue momentum downward).
A break above 113,000 would flip resistance into potential support and enable longs.
Trade between 7–10am with 1% risk (speaker prefers 0.5% or taking profit at 2R).
A close below ~41,66 on the five‑minute chart (spoken as “41, 66”) would be the trigger to take a trade.
Chapters
What's good everyone? Yesterday's trade ended up being splendid. If you followed me on Twitter just like I told you, would have called the trade exactly at 10:56am and yep, just played out pretty straightforward. And so that marks the 108th win over the last 135 calls that I've made here on YouTube since February. So to those of you that are new here, understand that you're probably at the right place because we tend to be right more often than we're wrong. Anyways, time to get into the trade for today. So taking a look at the daily chart, we have closed Bearish yesterday. Now, unfortunately we still haven't closed Bullish yet. For those of you who kind of missed what I was talking about in the last couple of days, understand that we are in this bullish order block right now on the daily chart, which means that until proven otherwise, we are supposed to bounce out from this area towards the bullish side. Not only that, but if you go onto the weekly chart there is also another bullish order block. The price is in the process of filling and last like a couple of weeks ago we had a really bullish close. And so we were expecting last week to actually close bullish as well. Especially followed by the federal funds rate where they are starting to reduce the interest rates which are really good for risk on assets like crypto such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, even NASDAQ and the S&P 500. Problem is right now it's actually dumping. But we are overall still bullish, though not only in the overall market structure. If you take a look here, this is just overall super bullish, but also in the micro structure in the sense that in the daily chart you have already gotten a change change in state of delivery at this point right here. Which means like for the most part you are already bullish and right now you're looking for bullish PD arrays to retrace back into before further upside. And that's what we're looking for at the moment. So so far we're still bullish, except the fact that within the micro time frames, meaning the low, low time frames, we haven't gotten that kind of confirmation yet. And so we're just going to chill and we're not going to go long yet until we get at the very least a bullish daily candle close. But just understand, if you're a swing trader, if you're a slightly longer term trader, this is a great area to start accumulating. It's the same exact advice that I gave you guys, back when we were here, back when price retraced into this fair bit of gap right here, I called it publicly. Back when price retraced into both of these favorite gaps, I just said like, hey guys, just, just buy. Like it doesn't matter if like you buy here, it goes lower, like you're already in great profit. It's also the same thing that I said back here. So just understand that I've been making these videos for a while now and these higher frame stuff, they may take a while to play out but they're really like. The accuracy is usually pretty good and especially if you're watching this again previously. Pudding just within the intraday trades that I'm calling, I have an 80% win rate now. Long term wise, sure, you may lose this trade, you may win, doesn't matter. What matters is that objectively speaking, this is a good area to buy. And so yeah, if you're looking to accumulate, I can only speak from Bitcoin. Like I can't speak in terms of Ethereum, but Ethereum would technically be a good place to accumulate as well because you have just swept out this liquidity right here. But still we're going to get into Ethereum later. Just understand that Bitcoin, if you're a swing trader or a slightly longer term trader, this is already a great place to accumulate. But enough about the longer term stuff, let's talk about short term stuff again. Yesterday's daily candle closed Bearish. Which means today, technically we're supposed to be looking for a bearish trade. Except the fact that so far on the one hourly chart, it's looking pretty, pretty bullish. But there are a couple of ways that this can go. A is that following the bearish thesis, Price has just filled in this one hourly pdra. Bearish pdra after sweeping out the Asia highs. And this is all occurring during the London session, which for those of you who don't know London tends to be a session of manipulation. Meanwhile, Asia is your session of accumulation. And if you know anything about smart money trading, you have accumulation, you manipulate, basically do a false move towards one side of the Asia range, which tricks people into thinking that, hey, the market is going up before you distribute heavily towards the downside. So that everyone that went long here, everyone that got fools into thinking that price is going to go up, well guess what? When price retraces, or rather when price reverses aggressively towards the other side, all of them are going to be stuck and they're going to be forced to close their positions. This is the essence of smart money trading and the type of thing that we're going up against when we're trading against these big funds as well as these market makers. So that is so far the first kind of theory that I can see. The second of which is, well, you've already gotten some kind of a CISD on the bullish side of things. So potentially, potentially you could trade above this bearish order block and flip this resistance into potential support before going towards the upside. As to which one's going to happen. Well, guess what, we're going to have to zoom into the lower time frames to narrow this down. But just understand that the order block extends all the way until there because technically it's this series of like kind of, you know, random up close candles. But I think for accuracy's sake we can like reasonably and safely go for this one right here. Just understand also the overall like just keeping in mind the overall order flow, it's pretty bearish. So just understand so far we're going to be looking for downside until proven otherwise, especially because we had a bearish daily kind of close. So going down into the lower time frames, I've kind of already, you know, started positioning myself into a trade here which is we got a CISD here after London swept out the Asia high. And so this is known as a manipulation again. So like my entry would be there, place my stop above there and I'm just simply going to target for a two hour trade. So far I'm still sitting at around break even, which is fine. By the time you watch this video though, if price has broken below this low right here at 112,400 then you could potentially just continue riding the momentum all the way towards the downside with this level right here at 112,000 flat being the intraday target. Or just take your profit at 2R. Whether 2R ends here or here doesn't quite matter. Just understand that following the system so far, the trade today should be bearish rather than bullish. Now this changes though if during the New York session you get a break above this level right here at 113,000. Now if that happens, then you could potentially flip that resistance into support before price continues going to the upside. If that happens, guess what, you're going to potentially take a long me I'm going to sit this one out in terms of the long side because my system dictates that A I'm trading on a Newsday and B, there's time frame alignment meaning like the daily timeframe the hourly timeframe and the minute time frame should be aligned in the same direction. So far the daily is down and in the event that we break above here that means the hourly will be up and the minute will be up. So this is called time frame misalignment. And so personally I'm going to sit this one out. And also the other reason being the fact that we do not have news today, Wednesday, absolutely zero news which means today is not going to be as high probability of a trading day compared to yesterday where you know we called it and it happened very cleanly. That is a prime example of correct theory collect like correct knowledge and correct theory being executed on a proper day. Now there is also the flip side of that which is you are right about the theory you like. Everything seems to be lining up but then when you do take the trade it just ends up not going in your favor and that's that could purely be due to the fact that it's not a high probability trading day which I. E means that it's not a news day. Again as traders ideally you're focusing on newsdays because that is when things tend to happen as well as things tend to happen much more cleaner compared to a. The reason. Well let's just say that when there is news, everyone is paying attention to the news. And so you're going to have much more market interest, you're going to have much more market participants which also means much more movement and much cleaner movement. But anyways going back into the trade for today, just understand that whatever trade that you do decide to take, I would highly advise if you're going towards the short side, feel free to take the trade between 7 to 10am with 1% risk. But personally I'm going to try to stick to 0.5% risk or potentially just taking my trade like my TP at 2R rather than aiming for a further target. The reason is because today's like we always take into consideration the market conditions as a trader because just like how you wouldn't necessarily be super aggressive in your buying at the start of a bear market, you also wouldn't be necessarily aggressive with your buying at the end of a bull market. Right. The market conditions does play a huge part and in this case this is not the greatest market conditions and so we play a little bit more conservatively. So in the event that we go long here, I'm not taking a trade. I've already mentioned it. If we go short here. Well I'm already in a trade but like I'm probably just going to. Yeah, just let it play out. There's nothing much you could do here. Just understand again, so far this has been pretty, this has been pretty choppy and now let's get into Ethereum real quick just to take a look. And by the way like feel free to follow me on Twitter at the Art of Crypto. If there's a trade update, I'm going to be happy to post it on Twitter which is called Live Trade. But anyways, Ethereum, so far I think this heads and shoulders pattern is still kind of playing out. So far you have swept out the neckline. Now this is a liquidity level that I've mentioned that it would be swept. Now it has already been swept. So now we are just looking for some kind of an upside or like just some kind of signs of life. Just understand that so far this is a bullish PD array, right? This is a bullish fairly gap on the daily chart. Now whether or not price comes to this level or not highly depends on just the way that the intraday candles play out. Obviously for the bulls out there you are looking for price to, you know, head towards the upside. And by the way, remember last couple of weeks I said that these lows would definitely be swept before we get any sort of new all time high. Guess what? It took a, you know, it took a couple of weeks. But again this is the thing about higher time frame kind of ideas. They do take time and indeed they have been swept. Why? Because these are relatively equal lows. This is a magnet for liquidity. This is also liquidity. And right now since we're close to the PD array, I don't see why not that we do not fill the feed array as well as go all the way down to maybe 3,880 before some kind of upside movement. So in terms of Ethereum, I'm still just being patient. Same with Bitcoin. Like Bitcoin you can already start like loading up but like Ethereum, definitely being a little bit more patient in terms of intraday setup. Yesterday was also super choppy. But remember the trade that I called live on the video itself? Guess what? It played out. Price did not come back into this level whatsoever and it just went down. If you made money with that or if you made money with the bitcoin trade yesterday as well, like drop a comment down below. I'm going to be back on the comment section starting today. Past week, actually like past 10 days I haven't been feeling super well. So I apologize if I've left some of your comments unread previously. I tend to read every single comment and I reply to every single comment. So feel free to drop it down below if you have any questions or you know, if you just want to share with me, like, hey, you know, these videos have been helpful because it truly does help keep me going to make these videos every single day, knowing that they are making an impact. Otherwise with Ethereum today it's personally it's looking a little bit like choppy. Of course you're still within this bearish order block right here, so potentially just pointing towards the same side. But then this like huge sweep yesterday leads me to believe that this is not as clean of a setup compared to Bitcoin. So personally, based on the available volatility that I'm seeing so far on Ethereum, I'm going to lean towards Bitcoin for a short today. In the event that we start heading long, I wouldn't necessarily lean towards Ethereum either. Like Bitcoin just has more volatility and the price action's like just looking a little bit cleaner personally. So for today I'm going to sit Ethereum out. But yeah, no, I'm. Yeah, it's just not a responsible thing today to call something for Ethereum. The only thing I could potentially see is if you get a sweep of the Asia highs during the New York session and you start breaking lower, this is potentially another trade. Or you don't need to actually sweep the highs, you just need to kind of break below this level right here on the five minute chart at 41, 66. Break below that. If you close below that, you could already technically take a trade. Placing the entry there, placing the stop there and Simply targeting for 2R. That is in the event that you want to trade Ethereum, that is going to be the setup that you can take. Moving on to Solana, Solana has, you know, been retracing so far, although looking much stronger compared to Ethereum. You have just filled in some kind of higher time frame bullish roadblock. So let's just see how the daily candle reacts. Again, you have closed bearish for the last three days. So for the foreseeable future, at least for today you are expecting more downside movement. But if today's candle closes bullish, then tomorrow we can potentially jump into a bullish trade. But so far in terms of the one hourly, you know, it's still looking like very bearish order flow in the sense that right now you would actually be anticipating price to go lower, especially because you have Just filled in this favor gap right here. You have bearish order blocks all around. So this is the difference between like price filling in these kinds of key levels and then like we just wait until we get exact confirmations that, okay, price is going to bounce from this point onwards. The biggest mistake you could possibly make in crypto or just trading in general is that, okay, you have some sort of an idea that this is a higher time frame key level and you expect price to bounce from here. But then once price gets into this level, just buy straight away and you hope for the best. Guess what? That is not a strategy that is rooted within logic, which means you should also expect results that are not based on a strategy that is just buying and praying that it goes up. Obviously not a very sustainable nor a very good strategy. In fact, on the flip side, what we do instead is we once surprised gets into those levels, right, there are certain confirmations that we need to see before we jump into it. As an example would be a breakup of $216. Like going above this bearish short block here would potentially lead to this entire zone here turning into potential support. But on the flip side, if we just buy in right now, we could potentially just come into this resistance right here and price continues going lower. You never know. Again, sometimes you might be lucky and price goes up, sometimes you may be unlucky and price goes down. But do you really want to bet your money, your hard earned money on luck or do you want to have a more systematic approach? We are going short until proven otherwise. And taking a look at the lower time frames, well, this is a bit iffy because usually when we have a bearish bias, we want to see a sweep of the Asia highs rather than a sweep of the Asia lows. But essentially the this is going to be resistance until proven otherwise. So in the event that you start breaking lower between the hours of 7 to 10am, then yeah, feel free to go short. Personally, I'm going to focus on Bitcoin because it has, well, at the very least it looks the most clean as well as the most clear. Even though it is not super clear. Even though, like I said, today is not the highest probability trading condition, Bitcoin still just looks a little bit clearer compared to Ethereum and Solana. So that's going to be the one that I'm going to focus on. By the way, this is how you kind of look through multiple trade ideas and decide which one you want to focus on. Just go for the one that, you know, requires the least amount of rationalization. For example, in Solana, right here, I could rationalize, okay, potentially you're going to go up, potentially you're going to go down. Like, it's not as clear cut as Bitcoin. And so I'm going to focus on Bitcoin. If you've watched until this point so far, expect there not to be a video tomorrow because, like, if the weather allows, tomorrow is going to be the day where I fly to Hong Kong. Of course, if the typhoon is continuing and my flight gets cancelled again, then I'll be recording a video. But otherwise, like, most likely, fingers crossed, I'll see you guys on Friday. Ciao, ciao.
