Bitcoin: It's REALLY Not Looking Good...

What's good, guys? Welcome back to another video. If you guys took the call that I made yesterday of how you would sweep the Asia high during the New York session, and then you would dump, congratulations, you would be up quite a bit. This is a successful trade which marks the 121st win of the last 150 videos that I've made so far this year. So if you're new here, just understand that we have been one of the only channels out there that have been catching the right moves and making a whole load of money even throughout all of this dump, while everyone else was getting wrecked. So. But otherwise, in this video, there are two very important questions that we need to answer. The first one is, this is the end of the bull run where I'm going to look at, you know, kind of like a higher time frame chart just to give you the breakdown of what to expect. And secondly, if there is a intraday setup that you could potentially get into for today. So let's kick things off with the weekly chart because initially, one of my main conditions for the bull run kind of continuing and not seeing just downside for the next few weeks is that we want price to not have a weekly close below $108,000. Last week, the bounce back from this level here was really optimistic. And that's why I made a video saying, hey, yeah, you know, until you get a close below this, you know, the born's not really over. And we didn't until now where things are looking kind of shaky, it's looking more and more likely that we're going to be more likely than not closing the week underneath this level. And so does that mark the end of things? Well, I think in this case there are a couple of prior examples that we can look at and look no further than this previous kind of dip here where, you know, a price did in fact close below, you know, one of the order flow levels and ended up, you know, rebounding afterwards after filling in some kind of key level. We, at the time we predicted this, we caught the bottom on this. I taught you guys for eight weeks to just buy. And if you did well, congratulations. And the second time that this happened was also very recently where you get a close below here, which turns this into a potential bearish order block. But then we had a very clear thesis, again called this, where this was a bullish order block and to buy and you would make money. So these were the two recent scenarios. So right now, just a candle close below this definitely signals that we're going into a Retracement period. But there's a bit of a different context this time around because now there is no longer any sort of key level that we can take advantage of. For example, with this one, there were two fair value gaps right below that were not filled yet. In this case there was a very clear order block. In this case there is only one potential level on the weekly chart that we can see, which is this fair value gap right here. This leads me to believe that we're going to be in for a bit of a rough ride in the event that we close below this level. But even more importantly, like if we close below this level right here at 100, $1,000 or just 100k, if you close below 100k on the weekly chart, this will not only turn this into a potential bearish resistance, but it will turn this entire block here into a bearish resistance and you are going to be looking for more downside until potentially maybe the bull market continues. The other saving grace on this side of things is like if you draw a fib from this low to this high right here, this lines up with the 0.705 of, you know, within this trading range right here. And if you know anything about swing trading, it's that you ideally want to be buying into discount zones, which is anything below the 0.5 line and you want to ideally be selling into a premium. This 0,705 level is one of the, you know, kind of magical numbers when it comes to using fib. But the problem with just, you know, using this fib right here is that it's all just a theory at the moment where we don't know if price is in fact going to bounce from here. The fact that we have formed so much price action right from the, from the end of May, basically until the mid of October, basically four months, we have four months of just trading action that could potentially turn into a really strong resistance and for price to just dump from this point onwards. Now the truth is, while I may not know if this is going to be the top, granted we still have two and a half days left before the week closes. Who knows, we may get a miraculous close just above this level if we do. Brilliant. Because then the bull market is very much intact. Like me personally, I've already taken a little bit of profit recently just seeing how this dump has played out. And in my case, I would rather just be safe than sorry. You know, if I sell, if I sell a bit of my holdings here, at least I would have capital to buy back in at a lower price. It would be a stupid idea not to take any sort of profit, especially once you're seeing this kind of weakness show up on the chart. Now, do I think the bull market is over? I don't know. I'm just going to play it day by day, play it accordingly. And again, this is what we've been doing for this entire year. This is also what we've been doing over the last couple of weeks. And like everyone who's following this channel is more likely making money rather than losing money during this entire period. But still, yeah, this is definitely looking shaky. Now the one other possibility that I could see in this, in this whole situation here is that we have this low right here. Fun fact, most major pumps in bull markets usually come after liquidity sweeps. For example, here you start liquidity and then you go up. And then over here again you sweep liquidity and then you go up. Now this is known as a sell side liquidity sweep within a bullish trend. Now the only problem with this time around again is the lack of key levels underneath these liquidity sweeps. Underneath this liquidity sweep was a fair value gap. You filled in the fair value gap while sweeping liquidity and you go up. In this case, you have a bullish order block right beneath liquidity. You sweep it out, you go up. This time around you have liquidity, but your favorite gap is all the way down here. So again, while I wish I could give you a super clear answer, it is super responsible. It is just a very irresponsible move for any sort of trader to tell you okay, with 100% certainty this is going to happen. I know it sucks that I cannot give you a certain answer, but the truth is I can only tell you the probabilities, I can only tell you the scenarios. And ultimately that is the responsible thing to do. Everyone who is telling you to go ape long, 100x or whatever back here are the exact same people that have gotten everyone wrecked. While we, on the other hand, we play it day by day. And that was how we were able to take advantage of this move because the price action was lining up. And while we would like to believe that the market is continuing to go up, we cannot deny what the market is showing us and that's how we took advantage of it. So we're going to play it the same way here. Whether it goes up or down. Know that with the intraday moves that I'm going to be calling, we're still going to be making money throughout the entire bear market. If it happens. But for now it's a bit too early to tell. That will be the conclusion because again, all of these is predicated on the fact that we get weekly candle closes. And the fact of the matter is we still have two and a half days before we get a weekly candle close. But truthfully, the daily chart is not looking amazing as well. The moment we dive right into here, not only do we, you know, do we get a change in state of delivery underneath this level, but we also have a bearish order block that we can potentially take advantage of for price to go lower. Right now the only hope that I'm holding that the bull market is going to continue is that this has been the trading range over the last four months. We got a sweep above the range high. Right now we're sweeping below the range low, potentially filling in this bullish further gap right here. And then we're going to revert back to the other side of the range and potentially to continue the rest of the bull market. But for now, unfortunately, it's not looking good. There's a higher likelihood than not that we are going for to be in for a rough few weeks of retracement. And as bitcoin loses strength, you're going to see altcoins lose strength as well. So let's just say that if you're in profit right now, um, at least I, I'm not going to give you financial advice, but just based on what I'm doing right now, I'm taking a little bit of profit to get ready to potentially recycle it back when prices get lower. But otherwise, one thing that you should not do at this moment is to buy into dips. I just actually recorded a video a couple of days ago on the best method to kind of catch bottoms and it does not involve buying dips. It is in fact statistically one of the worst performing kind of strategies when it comes into investing in a bull run. Got a much better new solution for you. Once that video is edited, I'm going to get it out. So subscribe, turn on the bell notification so that you know when that drops. Now that you understand that on the higher time frame it's not looking good, then yeah, let's get into the intraday perspective, see if we can at least make money today so that to, you know, we can cover some of the losses that we're incurring on the rest of the portfolio. Now coming back into the price action for today, we have a few key levels right here. A, you're going to have both of these fair value gaps on the one hourly chart. The upper fairly gap happens to line up with a bearish order block. So these are going to be the three levels that we're going to be looking for for price to retrace back into during the New York session, which is about to start actually in about five minutes and which is basically just between the hours of 7am to 10am now when you get into these bearish resistance zones, the call is going to be simple. You're just going to look for Price to continue heading lower. And in this case you don't want to be cherry picking tops here because of how volatile the day has been already. Which basically just means that as price retraces into previous bearish order blocks on the five minute time frame, just feel free to take a trade, place a stop here and target for two hours. Basically, if this is how big your stop loss is, you want to go for two units of your stop loss, this is what it means for two R. Honestly, as a trader you don't really need much more than this. If you achieve two R like three times a week, that's 6% account gain. And you multiply this over the course of a year, you are looking at insane numbers. I'm not saying that you're going to be able to achieve this every single week, but track record here has been pretty solid so far. Now another thing that would kind of draw my attention to this lower fair value gap right here starting at 105,650 is that you have relatively equal highs, which means you could sweep out liquidity, fill in some sort of key level and then you go down from that point onwards. So that would be the call. Again, I don't know if this is going to be the top or if this is going to be the setup or if this is going to be the setup. All three are valid. And it's not the job of a trader to ultimately predict where the market is going to go, but rather our job is to simply mark out scenarios that are likely to happen, mark out exactly how we plan to enter once these things happen, mark out the time, timing that we would like to see this happen and then ultimately if it happens, we jump in it. So it's trading is much more of a game of reading and reacting rather than predicting. I've also made a video about this recently. Man, I've got so many videos that I've recorded recently that I'm so excited to share with you guys. The other alternative scenario is that again, right now you're coming into bearish resistance. So the moment you like, by the time you watch this video, if you are breaking below this level right here at 103,600, then yeah, just again, the direction today is going to be towards the downside. And if you see any sort of setup that you can write a momentum, just do that. And the target intraday for today is going to be 101500. I'm not saying that we're going to come all the way here, but in the event that you hold a trade all the way here, make sure you take your profit because that's likely going to be the end of the intraday move. This is rough. After this period I wasn't expecting like a huge kind of V shaped recovery, but I also wasn't quite expecting a dump like this as well. Now granted we have made money like we have called every single major dump and but still it's rough on the portfolio. What I was initially anticipating like just as my prediction, which I never shared because again I don't see it as my job to, you know, predict ultimately whatever, like it doesn't really matter what my stance on the market is. I'm still just going to be acting based on what the market is showing me. My thought was that we would get kind of a range forming after this dump. We would not retrace back into this level and we would just be trading, basically deviating below the range, trading back into the range and then deviating to the range highs. And we're going to do this for like two, three, four weeks. And in this meantime where bitcoin is ranging, it's going to give altcoins the room that they need in order to, you know, just flourish. And we were starting to see this on, you know, Ethereum, Bitcoin, where it was. And by the way guys, this, this level here is the saving grace. Until you get a candle close above this level right here on the daily chart at 0.0375, you are not truly into alt season yet. Until this happens. You like do not be aggressive yet. And so far this has been the saving grace. I really hope you guys listened because yeah, Ethereum's down 10% just like overnight. Solana is down 10% as well overnight. And this level, like this is why it's so important to have confirmations. This is why it's so important to know how to read the higher time frame because this is how you stay out of a lot of false confirmations. Right? Again, there is what we think is going to happen. Right. I think like I thought an alt season was imminent. But then there's also on the other side of the equation, what the market is actually showing you. And it's important as traders that it doesn't matter what you think, you trade what the market is showing you, you do not act until the market confirms your thesis. And thankfully that has prevented us from getting into a false signal. But otherwise, taking a look at Ethereum and yeah, it's still looking stronger than Bitcoin, of course, because you know, Ethereum is only here, you haven't had a change in state of delivery. This is not yet a bearish order block, although that changes if today closes below this level at 3752. But otherwise I'm still not in a position where I'm going to be looking for longs, that's for sure, given how weak Bitcoin looks at the moment. Ultimately Bitcoin dumps. Everything's going to dump. And so whatever setup that you take on Ethereum and Solana today, look for shorts. However, I would most likely prioritize Bitcoin just because of how much more weak it's been looking. And in terms of Ethereum, you have the same, you know, fertility gaps right there, right there, as well as this bearish order block. And ultimately you just want to see price retrace into these levels in between the hours of 7am to 10am and then that's going to be your setup potentially if you go down into the lower time frames. Yeah, this is a bearish resistance. If you start heading lower from this point onwards. This is also valid. Again, it's already 6.55 in one minute. The new York sessions, Sorry, the New York kill zone is going to start. That's already a valid seller. Right. You can already dive into the markets from this point onwards. Next we look at Solana and same old, same old. Like it's probably going to look the same again, still looking stronger than Bitcoin because this is not yet a bearish order block. But in this case you have. Let's take a look on the one hourly chart, you have one fair value gap, right? So this makes it a little bit more clear between Ethereum and Solana. If you're going to pick one for a short, I would definitely lean towards this because now you only have one fairly gap to work with. In the event that you into the further gap, then that is going to be your trigger for a short. Otherwise. Yeah, I really wish I could give you guys a better answer. Truth is, it's a bit early to tell. I don't want to jump to conclusions here, especially not when, you know, 2,000 of you are watching me every single day. I feel an immense amount of responsibility to always make the right call, to be objective, to be as responsible as I can possibly be. I know how many these, like, you know, ball posters out there will just tell you to just buy into this or, like, sell into that or whatever. But then, like, proof is in the pudding, right? We've been pretty successful so far this year. Even though this is not a methodology, even though this caution, even though, you know, this whole talk about probabilities and reading and reacting is not sexy. It is what makes money. And ultimately that's what I'm here to help you guys do. Definitely going to keep you guys posted on Twitter if I do jump into any shorts today, so feel free to follow me there. Otherwise, yeah, look forward to the videos I'm about to post. They are going to be so valuable. And I filmed it all in preparation for. In the event that we, you know, start going into a bear market, at the very least, you guys will be equipped to make money rather than lose money. But, yeah, otherwise, they have talked. Fair enough. See you tomorrow when I post one of my weekend videos. Ciao, ciao.