The Art of Crypto breaks down an intraday Bitcoin setup with entry zones around $69,800 and targets at $69,000 and $67,360. He emphasizes waiting for a 5-minute change-of-state confirmation between 7:30 and 9:30 AM and stresses the mistake of buying dips during a downtrend.
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What's good, guys? Welcome back to another video. Today we're going to get into the intraday setup for Bitcoin. Just a heads up, we have a live trading event coming up in just under a week now. If you haven't signed up already and if you'd like to get an invite, click the first link in the description box below. But otherwise, let's get into the Bitcoin video for today. Now, before I do, earlier on in the VIP group, we ended up having someone who tried to take a trade on Bitcoin, and, you know, he tried to take it for 2R. Now, no surprise there, he ended up getting stopped out, and I actually filmed a trade breakdown video for him, just kind of like breaking down his trade and what he could have done better and why he ended up getting stopped out. Potentially, you you guys might find value in this as well. And it goes with, and it just helps a lot to understand how the system works and exactly when you should be getting into a trade and when you shouldn't. If you guys are interested, I'm just gonna spend a couple minutes on this. If not, like feel free to skip ahead a couple of minutes and we can get into the analysis, but this should be valuable. He ended up getting into a trade around here. And the biggest problem with jumping into the trade at this point is that if you take a look at just the 5-minute chart, you will, like there is no one here that would realistically say that, oh wow, what a bullish looking market, like let's buy. If anything, this was making lower highs, lower lows, and it was generally just, you know, going lower. Now, the biggest reason, if I could boil it down, is that he ended up going long into a market that is fundamentally falling. Now, if you've ever heard of the phrase like, hey, the trend is your friend, or like, you know, trade with the trend, that's very much true, which also means that when the market is in a downtrend and when you can visibly see that it is in a downtrend, you want to ideally be looking for shorts rather than going for longs because, you know, you don't want to be counter-trend trading. And just this one tip alone, by the way, will save you from a lot of P&L. But no, this one tip alone will help you get more wins and, you know, prevent a lot of losses. But let me dive deeper into this because, like, once I zoomed out on the chart, I could clearly see, like, what idea he was going for, even though it was just that one little picture. I can only assume this is the idea that he was having, which is basically that you have a fair value gap over here and you have a prior liquidity point over here. Once that got taken out and once the fair value gap is filled, you know, his thesis was that price would bounce from the fair value gap, and price would bounce after taking out that sell-side liquidity. Now, here's the missing part of the equation, because like, there is nothing wrong with what he did initially, which is he had the idea, and the idea was sound. That's not a problem. The thing though that he missed is that with every trade, there are usually two steps. The first one is that you need to have the idea, right? If you don't have an idea, if you don't have any thoughts about the market, then you're not going to do anything about it. So the idea, great, right? It's rooted in sound logic. Now, Here's the second part of the equation that most people tend to miss, which is that you need the market to also agree with your idea before you jump into a trade. So his idea was that, okay, fair value gap, liquidity, it should bounce. At the very least, don't get into a trade until you get some sort of 5-minute change in state of delivery. Once you get some sort of higher high, once you get some sort of higher low, it's never too late to wait for price to just kind of form the order block first before you get in. And essentially what you're doing here is that you're waiting for the market to confirm, like, okay, That's your thesis. If the market agrees with it, it should, like, theoretically speaking, it should form a higher high and it should respect that newly formed order block. That is what you call confirmation. That is what people generally mean, and that is also what I mean when I say, all right, once price gets into this key level here, you want to see that the market agrees with your idea. So the next time I say something like that, just understand this is exactly what I mean, because the risk of diving into the trade only based on the idea is that, yes, it's rooted in sound logic, but How many times have you tried to buy dip on a crypto or you try to catch the top on some sort of asset just to end up not only losing once but losing twice, three times trying to catch the top? And by the time the top actually comes in, it's like, oh my God, it's like so far away from where you are. Or when you try to buy the dip on Bitcoin, right? You buy the dip and then boom, right? You immediately go into the red. And depending on what crypto you're buying, you could be sitting in the red for like multiple years and never see your money return back. This is the danger with buying dips. And the reason why it's dangerous is because you are fundamentally buying into a market that is forming lower highs and lower lows, and it's going for lower liquidity points. Now, and the one thing to understand is that we are human, and the market does what the market is going to do. There is no way humanly possible that we are going to be able to predict what the market is going to do or where it's going to stop at. Hence why I say, with my trading system, at the very least, I am never, like, even with these videos that I'm trying to make, I am never trying to predict what the market is going to do. I'm simply giving you guys the information. Like, at most, I'll give you a couple of scenarios that are most likely to happen. Now, once you get into, like, once those scenarios start playing out though, you need to see confirmation before you jump in. Because at that point, trading becomes less a game of predicting but just a game of reading and reacting. If you guys enjoyed that trade breakdown segment, do let me know. I'll be happy to talk about this on, you know, every single market update. But who knows, it might not be relevant for a lot of you. But anyways, just kicking things off on Bitcoin. Now, one thing that makes it really tough to trade today is the fact that If you take a look at the last 4 days, one of the reasons why we've been struggling so hard, and case in point, like, I don't even think I managed to take a trade today. Case in point, I don't even think I managed to call a trade in the last couple of days. Now, the reason for that is because usually when you get a bearish candle, you expect the next day to be bearish. And usually when you get a bullish candle, you expect the next day to be bullish, or at the very least to target the previous daily high. And we haven't really gotten that, right? The past few days have been quite choppy. In the grand scheme of things. Like, it's just a lot of small up and down movements and no clear trend. And this is exactly what we went through and struggled throughout the month of like February as well as December. This system tends to struggle when there is no clear trend. And currently, this is just a range. And so if you've been struggling over the last couple of days, don't worry, it's perfectly normal. We had a good first 3 weeks of the month though. So, you know, technically we've already made our money and it's perfectly normal to have 1 or 2 weeks of the month where it's a little bit slower or that, you know, things are just not playing out as cleanly. The only thing you can do when you face times like this is A, to just be a little bit more cautious. Instead of usually you might wait for just an early CSD, well, in this case, you wait for an undeniable CSD before you get in because you want to account for the lower probability conditions. But the second thing is purely just to look to survive, right? If you genuinely do not see any trades, then no trade is perfectly fine, especially on crypto. We've still been killing it on forex though and tradfi because those are Those are really fun right now, especially oil. Market conditions aside, that like, it just makes today really tough to trade because on the 1-hourly chart, we've already gotten a bearish CISP and it seems really clear that price is going to head towards the $69,000 kind of like area just to take out that liquidity. Again, we're kind of in a range right now. And when you successfully identify that you are in a range, what usually happens is that once the range high gets taken out, you tend to oscillate to the range low. And once the range low is taken out, depending on the trend, you tend to oscillate back to the range high. So right now, even though the daily bias is pointing towards the upside, I cannot realistically say that today the trade is going to be towards the upside. If anything, I think it's going to be a short, and so that's what we're going to prioritize. Second thing to pay attention to is the fact that we have news today at 8:30 AM. So whatever setup that I'm about to give you, you want to start looking for it at 7:30 AM, and you want to, you know, ideally be in the trade before 9:30. Basically, we're taking advantage of the news window where the chances of you getting a profitable trade on this system is the highest, which means the hour before news to the hour after news. So right now we can see that we have a very clear liquidity— sorry, we have a bull PD array on the 1-hourly chart at the moment. And right now there are two ways that this plays out. One is that you retrace back into the PD array before you go down to $69,000, or you literally just form a new PD array here, break down, and head towards the downside. Now we are about at— as of this very moment, we're only about an hour and 15 away from the actual start of the news window. So I don't know if we're going to retrace all the way back up here, but if you do, like, now that we're on the 5-minute chart, I think we can kind of break this down a little bit better because this is, you know, it's very clear that this is a value area. So retracing back into $69,800, it's honestly already good enough to just take a trade right then and there, placing a limit. Boom, boom, that's a 2.5:1 setup. Now, depending on what time you guys see this video, this is probably the ideal setup. Now, just be aware that because you have relative equal highs above you know, this zone right here, there is a possibility where price will sweep this out before forming another CSD. If that happens, then yeah, just get into that second trade. Part of the rules of our system is that we are allowed to take a maximum of 2 trades. If the first one gets stopped out, which sometimes we cannot really control, we fire again on the second one. And in that case, you should also end up with a roughly similar setup, except this time around you will have taken out the liquidity up top. This will be a strong high, and that also means that price is unlikely, or at least not as likely, to revisit that area. And especially if, again, this is the idea, you wait for the market to give you confirmation, which comes in the form of a 5-minute CSD at exactly anywhere between 7:30 to 9:30, which is the news window, and you can get in. And the second one is going to be just this one, super straightforward. Now, in the event that price, by the time you watch this video, right, price is already kind of like breaking lower, then just feel free to take advantage of any new PD arrays that form and going all the way down to $69,000. I know that is not a super, like, it's not a target that is really, really far away. So there is a potential that price could go a little bit lower. I'm not sure in the intraday basis how far down we might go. But $67,360 would be the target in the event that price runs a little bit further than we initially expected. Now, one of the other interesting factors to consider, and this is by no means some sort of prediction, but just based on the rumors circulating around, you know, Twitter and stuff like that, Trump is expected to give a little bit of good news for today, which also means that there is the potential that price could pump in regards to that news. Now, will I kind of take that into account? Not really, because at the end of the day, like, price action is still showing a lot of bearishness. And in order to go long, it's like, if you end up getting a candle close above $70,000 on the 1-hourly chart, then yeah, you know, maybe we kind of start considering a long, because at that point you will have overcome this bearish order block and you will basically turn that into a breaker block. If that happens, great. I'll definitely try to keep you guys posted on that trade idea. But for now, just purely based off of price action, we are so close to the range lows that even if you end up pumping, it's probably going to be short-lived. You're probably going to get rejected off of here. Because right now you're forming relatively equal lows, and this is just a liquidity that, you know, makes no sense that you wouldn't want to just at the very least take that first before moving on. But outside of that, remember, we got a couple days of live trading coming up. It's completely free to attend. Just click the first link in the description box below and you'll get an invite. At least you'll know where it's being done. Uh, but outside of that, I'll see you guys later, and hope you guys enjoyed the trade breakdown. Let me know in the comment section below if you appreciate just alpha like that or just a little bit more explanation. And cheers!
