bitcoin looks sketchy today (here’s the trade I’m looking for)

What's good guys, welcome back to another video. We had a really strong aggressive move yesterday on Bitcoin, which means that we're going to have a very decent chance of getting a decent trade today on Bitcoin, which is what I'm going to be covering in this video. But besides that, I'm also going to give you a couple of kind of like mental models and just ways of thinking that's going to serve you really well in trading. But just right before I get into it, if you're new here, welcome, my name is Xuan. I've been publicly documenting the success rate of all of these calls that I've been making on YouTube, and currently I'm at about a 75% win rate across 230 trades or so. All that means is that chances are I tend to be right just a tiny bit more compared to when I'm wrong. And with that out of the way though, first thing I'm going to do is to just do a little bit of a recap on yesterday and how yesterday ended up playing out. And this is not going to be like, oh yeah, this is a summary or whatever, but there are genuinely quite a few mental models that, well, a couple of mental models that I would like to impart to you that will serve you really well in trading. So if you take a look at Twitter yesterday, I posted that, hey, this was the idea that I'm considering. At the time that I was posting, this was around 9:05 AM. Now there are two things here that I wanted to touch on, and no, this is not like a criticism or whatever. Like, I'm not even going to attack these people because there is nothing to attack. It's just I would like to share a couple of mental models that are going to serve you really well and answer the questions of like, because we had a very aggressive move towards the upside yesterday, wouldn't you want to long it? No, in fact, I don't. And secondly, to the people that were like, you know, should have waited for the candle close, careless mistake. You said you would post trade update. Guys, there was no trade update. There is no trade. Like, this was just the idea. Like, literally, you can see the lines. This is the CSD that I was looking for. It did not end up happening. Like, if we go into the 5-minute timeframe, you will see we do not have a CISD. There is no trade, so there wouldn't be a trade update. Also, like, should have waited for the candle close. Careless mistake. There was no trade, man. Like, a CISD involves a candle close beneath a certain candle body. So for example, at this point right here, this would be known as a CISD, but this was happening not at the right timing that we were looking for because yesterday is a news window. Usually when you have a news window, you want to be trading Ideally the hour before news to the hour after news. Yesterday's news was 10 AM, hence we only started looking for trades at 9 AM. At least that's what I did. I find that if I just narrow down the amount of time that I'm actually spending looking at a trade, I tend to have way more, you know, higher of a success rate while at the same time not needing to spend too much time on the charts. Now comes to answering the— not even answering, but like just not necessarily saying that I have no fault here in terms of like the wrong call that I did yesterday, but Still, to the people that were like, okay, let's, let's start here, right? Wouldn't you want to long it? The answer is no, because I gave you some very clear reasons as to why I didn't want to long this yesterday. Because of the fact that you had formed undeniable CSDs towards the downside yesterday prior to price actually pumping, and surprisingly pumping actually, you were overall incredibly bearish, not only on the 1-hourly chart. Like, if you just take a look at how the hourly, you know, kind of market structure has been playing out. Clearly bearish, bearish, bearish, bearish, bearish. So the point that I'm trying to make here is that it's not necessarily like, yes, I was wrong, right? I was looking for a short yesterday. I did not end up getting a short, right? Yesterday just ended up being a no trade, but still I was looking for a short. And to some people that might look like a mistake. I would like to offer you a different perspective to think about this. The reason why I did not look for longs yesterday, as outlined in yesterday's video, is the fact that you are incredibly bearish overall, right? Anyone can see that. Secondly, even if we do go long, we would need a miracle move like this in order for the long to play out, because you are going to be trading literally into one huge order block over here in a trend that is overall bearish. All I mean to say here is that short that we were looking for yesterday was the higher likelihood outcome, right? If you were to kind of like logically break this down, I could say that With a 60% certainty, I would lean more towards the fact that price is going to get rejected off of the order block rather than pumping. Now, with a lower amount of chance, I would say that price was going to, you know, do this miracle move, completely disregard the amount— like, all of the resistance above, not just on the 1-hourly chart but also on the daily chart, and actually just pump. So the perspective that I'm trying to share with you here is that trading success, especially long-term trading success, comes from taking the higher probability outcome over the lower probability outcome each and every single time, and you maintain this for a decently long period of time. And now what I mean by this is that given a situation where the chances, logically speaking, of things going down are a little bit higher than when it goes up, you would always take the down move, right? If you were— like, the math checks out. If you stick to that kind of level of probability, you are going to be right more often than you're wrong, or you're going to make more money than you lose over the long term. And that's what I'm optimizing for, right? I'm not optimizing towards catching every single move because the truth is I cannot predict moves like this would happen. In fact, nobody can. Now, some people may get lucky a few times, and in fact, I get lucky sometimes and I catch the move. Like, fair enough. Like, but we got to understand that that was not the high probability move. In fact, assume you know nothing about what happened yesterday. Take a look at the chart again. What do you see? If the answer is bearish and you ended up being wrong, quote unquote, on the bearish move, that's not a mistake, man. That's just probabilities. Even if you're right 75% of the time, like, you're going to be wrong like 25% of the time. It just so happens this was one of the 25%, which is perfectly fine at the end of the day. So to the people that were asking, like, yeah, this is clearly not the right idea. Yeah, clearly it was not the right idea. But again, this was just an idea. This was not a trade. This is just what I was looking for from like the video, right? Everything that I, I basically planned to trade in the YouTube video and then I was looking for the trade, but ultimately I did not have a trade. And so that was a no trade. But yeah, just to, you know, get into one last little mental model before we dive into the actual trade of the day. Wouldn't you want to long this? The answer is no, because again, this was the lower probability outcome. You wouldn't have seen it happen anyways. And by the time that, you know, like prior to the move actually happening, yeah, sure, you know, you got a bullish CIST, but again, you could have made the argument that you were coming straight into resistance at the moment. And like, yeah, it would have just been the lower probability outcome. Even if I ended up winning on this, like I'm going to be dead honest with you, I probably wouldn't have— like even if I went long, right, I probably wouldn't have risked the, you know, a good amount of money because I would know in the back of my mind, like, oh yeah, if you just take a look at the hourly order flow and everything, like, it's incredibly bearish. So I'm not going to risk too much money here, you know, in case I'm wrong, because I know that I'm counter-trend trading. So the next time, like, just hopefully this is a mental model that serves you. If you find this valuable, like, let me know down in the comment section below. And just to, you know, go back to answering the question, now that we had a really aggressive move towards the upside where we have clearly shifted the trend in the opposite direction. Now that I have clear certainty that, hey, price is in fact bullish, it's not too late for me to now look for a long. Instead of trying to predict and guess what the market's going to do and pray for a Hail Mary, I can now get in on a train that has, you know, a lot more certainty. Like, for example, now it's incredibly bullish, which leads me on to today's trade, which is, if we go, if we start things off on the daily chart, believe it or not, we actually got a bearish candle close from yesterday, which means technically speaking, we supposed to be looking for a short today, um, which I am still going to lean towards. Now let's go into the 1-hour timeframe to see if this still holds up. Now in order for a short to be, you know, possible when it comes to today, uh, A, like step 1, we already have a strong high over here, but step 2, we would need a change in state of delivery on the 1-hour chart, which again, this— whenever you see me draw these lines over here, just assume that you need a candle body close beneath this level at 62,330. So once you get that, it shows you that, okay, order flow is now bearish. And the reason why we need this for today in order to look for a short is because yesterday we had a very major CSD with this candle over here, which means now technically speaking price is in bullish order flow. Then secondly, what if we make an argument for the long side of the equation? Like, let's say we completely ignore the daily bias. That means that chances are, uh, we are either going to just bounce from this order block over here, or B, we're going to sweep the liquidity first before bouncing. Now let's go into the lower time frame to see if we have one of those setups. London has clearly swept out the Asia highs. Now, in the event that we are following the daily bias today, London would have actually been the ideal time to trade because one of the most textbook setups that I can possibly give you guys, and just textbook A+ setup for me even, is when you have a bearish daily bias, you want to look for the London session to sweep above the Asia highs followed by a CSD, and this is where you enter. And obviously you place a stop somewhere above, but This is essentially Asia manipulation— sorry, Asia accumulation, London manipulation, followed by New York distribution, which means London heading into New York. This is what you would look for. And at this point, some of you more astute kind of traders would have picked up on a little bit of a problem. And this is something I love to point out every single time I run into it, which is the fact that we're getting mixed signals here. Now, for example, the daily chart is bearish, so we can make an argument that, okay, Asia high swept, we would look for New York distribution towards the downside. But if you take a look at the 1-hourly chart, well, 1-hourly is quite bullish because we've not only had one CSD, but we have two CSDs in a row. So the 1-hour chart is really bullish, which means we can also make the argument that, okay, maybe this manipulation is just to go down to the Asia low and you sweep out some liquidity, and then you're going to bounce, uh, with a V-shaped recovery, just like what we did yesterday where we ended up taking some relatively good lows and then bounced like one of those miracle recoveries. So to the people that caught on to this, the fact that we have mixed signals, congratulations, like you're progressing. And secondly, if you don't know what I'm about to get to, essentially whenever I get mixed signals in the market where I can make an argument towards the upside or towards the downside, the correct thing to do here, boring and as unpopular this is going to sound, the correct thing to do is actually just to go for a no trade. Now the reason why I say this is because, well, back to, you know, all of the trades that you have had where you made an insane amount of money, or those wins that just came super easily and you actually made a lot more money than you initially anticipated and you were genuinely surprised, like, whoa, you know, I didn't know trading could be that easy. Think back to those trades for a moment. In fact, feel free to pause the video here. What commonalities do they share? Now, I'm willing to bet that those trades were incredibly obvious in the sense where every single timeframe was pointing in the same direction. You had a very clear target and you had a very— like, price was— everything was just perfect. And that, at the end of the day, is what I urge you to hunt for if your goal is to make, you know, a really decent amount of money trading. Because trading, at the end of the day, right, or making money from trading is not about how many trades you end up taking, but rather the quality of the trades that you do take. And I'm sure you've heard some variation of this somewhere else before, and everyone likes to talk about it, but how do you actually execute upon this? Well, practically speaking, which is going for the days where everything— well, one of the criteria that I go for at the very least is called timeframe alignment, where I will only take a trade where when the 5-minute chart, the 1-hourly chart, and the daily chart are all pointing in the same direction, right? Those are the 3 timeframes that I have selected. Currently, the 1-hourly timeframe is pointing bullish, the daily is pointing bearish, and the 5-minute, you can kind of make an argument for both. So what is the correct thing to do here? Well, for now it's going to be a no trade. Like, I wouldn't— like, I cannot responsibly tell you that, you know, this is what you go for, or like, oh yeah, this is what you go for. Truth is also I am uncertain. And the second thing is maybe if we wait for a bit, we might see some different confirmations show up. So for example, if we do go for that kind of liquidity sweep, then when I see signs of that, I'm definitely going to be updating you guys on Twitter. And please do not assume that an idea is a trade. If it's a trade, I will tell you. And besides, back when we were here yesterday, like, we— I don't know, man. Again, maybe I need to word myself a little bit clearer, but like, clearly an idea is not a trade. It's an idea, and it's an idea that I was considering. There's some arrows on the chart as well. So yeah, but either way, like, feel free to follow me on Twitter. Like, I will post any of the trade updates and any trades that I do take. I will be posting them on Twitter. But yeah, just make sure you differentiate between an idea and an actual trade. Now besides that, if we also take a look at the that we do not have news today, we do not have news for tomorrow, we do not have news even on Thursday. The only bit of news that we have is on Friday. This uncertainty starts to make sense. Now, why do I say this? Because the first thing you need to understand is that a lot of the major market moves out there, like for example, moves like this and moves like this, they are not retail driven. These are usually done by smart money, or at least a big heavy contributor to moves like this tend to be the big wallets, right? The funds, the banks, the smart money, right? The big money. Now, the second thing you need to understand is that these entities, they do not move for absolutely no good. Reason. It's not like they just show up on a Tuesday without any sort of economic news on the calendar and decide that, okay, yeah, let's, let's, let's, let's do this, right? Let's do a miracle move like yesterday. The only reason why we had this kind of miracle move, if you go back to the exact minute that it started, it started because of news and it also continued because of news. For example, right here, major pump, right, basically began a few minutes before 10:00 AM, specifically speaking 9:35. This was right after the New York futures opened. So right after that, like boom, right? You continue going towards the move and you go all the way to around 11 AM, which is what I'm willing to bet, right? This is where we topped out yesterday for the most part. Again, all of this movement happened between the news window, which I said 9 AM to 11 AM. Now, why am I bringing this up? Well, the markets need a reason to move. When you do not have red folder, right, red folder high impact news for the USD, there's not as much of a reason to move, which means two things. One, you're just going to get A, much lower volatility compared to a red volume news day, but B, even if everything on price action checks out, you tend to have just an overall lower win rate in the first place. And third is you get days like this where you get some mixed signals where, you know, one timeframe is pointing clearly bullish and the other is not. So what do I do in this situation? Well, the answer is simple. Look at other assets. You have, I don't know, hundreds if not thousands of assets out there. This system works just as great, if not better, on forex and indices, and you do not have to just look at Bitcoin. You can always go on to even other cryptocurrencies. And this is the danger of looking at only one asset because there will always be a tendency to be like, okay, I am looking at the charts today, I would really love to take a trade today, but if I'm only looking at one asset, even when there is a situation where I'm not supposed to, like I know for a fact that this is not the highest quality day out there, I'm still going to try to force something because I'm only looking at one asset. So in order to not let yourself hallucinate here, right, have a selection of different assets, right? When I'm not trading Bitcoin, like guess what, there are opportunities on the euro, there's opportunities on the NASDAQ, on gold, on GBP, on oil, USD/Canadian, whatever. So that's step one, right? When this is showing me mixed signals, until the point where I get some clear signals, which by the way, I've given you the playbook, we need a candle close beneath this level. If we do get that, then fantastic, I will be interested in a short, but otherwise I will probably be sitting this one out. Secondly, until these mixed signals kind of like clarify itself, I'll just be looking at other assets because at the end of the day, your job as a trader is to make money. How do you best make money? By taking the highest quality trades. How do you ensure that you're taking consistently high quality trades? Well, It's to just look through your list of assets, determine which one has the highest likelihood of playing out for you, and that's the one that you focus on. Simple as that. You don't— you never need to get married to any one single asset. It's all the same. Like, yeah, sure, there are some minor differences between, you know, chart to chart and how they like to behave. For example, the NASDAQ is going to behave a little bit differently compared to the EUR/USD. But is it a night and day difference? Absolutely not. It's just some small details. Which, will it help if you understood these details? Absolutely. But is it going to absolutely derail you if you don't know these details? I wouldn't say so. So, like, give it a try. If you've only been looking at crypto, I can tell you one thing, you're missing out. Go sign up to a prop firm, costs a few 10 bucks, and you all of a sudden you'll be able to get access to Forex. And at that point, the world becomes your oyster because options kind of start opening up to you. Anyway, if there is going to be a trade today, I'm definitely going to be posting it on Twitter. Like, this is specifically what I'm going to look for. Like, if you, if you just start off somewhere, this is what I'm specifically going to be looking for. And obviously we still left behind some relatively equal lows from last week. Secondly, if we just take a look at the weekly bias, we're overall pretty bearish, which means Like, yeah, the weekly objective has not yet been taken. I do expect that we will break it down at some point, so that's where I'm leaning towards. But as of right now, I can tell you one thing is that, like, I don't have enough confirmation yet. And so that's why I'm just being a little bit more cautious than usual. I don't want to be that irresponsible YouTuber that tells you, like, oh yeah, this is the top, or like, oh yeah, just make— just speak confidently as though I was super confident about it just to, you know, find views or whatever. I'm not trying to be like that. And at the end of the day, I don't take this kind of responsibility lightly. I know that a lot of you tune in to watch this every single day, and last thing I want to do is to say something stupid or say something, I don't know, with confidence even though I have no confidence and cause you to lose money. Now sure, there are times where it will work out, but again, trading is a game of optimizing towards the higher probability play each and every single time, and that's how you ultimately end up being profitable. I know that's going to fly across a lot of heads,. But if you're able to listen to this and you listen to the advice that I've been giving, and if you listen to the kind of like advice or lessons that I've been giving throughout this video, and if you like this advice and if you like these mental models and the ways to think about the market in a very systematic fashion for long-term success and not just like short-term, oh yeah, I made some money, and then you proceed to lose it all, feel free to click the first link in the description box below to work with us one-on-one. Like 50% of the people that come through our program end up getting funded and going full-time as traders. Like this is not a number that any other program can claim because they simply do not care about your success. But we do, because we're working with you one-on-one. If you're tired of just like second-guessing and you want to tap into a solution that is proven, that will get you to where you want to go in trading within a decently short amount of time, then click the first link in the description box below. But with that out of the way, I'll see you guys later. I'll see you guys tomorrow. Ciao ciao!