A daily YouTube market analysis by The Art Of Crypto discussing Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana. The speaker outlines a conflicting set of biases: a weekly bearish bias versus a bullish daily bias for Bitcoin, highlighting the risk of short-lived early-week pumps that mask larger intra-week sell moves (a recurring pattern). He describes a high-probability "market maker sell model" (smart-money reversal) anchored on a filled fair-value gap and specifies confirmation and trigger levels (hourly close beneath ~85,900 would confirm downside, with a weekly downside target near $80,000). The video provides trading windows around scheduled news (major news at 8:30am and 10:00am New York time; ideal entries ~7:30–9:30am, exits ~11:00am–12:00pm) and urges observing price action into news rather than predicting. The speaker also notes analogous setups on ETH (level ~2785) and SOL, cautions against taking correlated trades across multiple assets, and promotes a free masterclass occurring in four days.
Questions this video answers
A one-hour candle close beneath 85,900 (USD).
A break in market structure at 85,850 (USD) was highlighted as the structural level to watch.
Return back to $80,000 (USD) was cited as the weekly target.
2785 (USD) was given as the level to be broken for ETH.
8:30am and 10:00am (New York time).
Chapters
What's up guys? Welcome back to another video. The trade yesterday ended up being a no trade for me personally as well as for most of the people inside vip. But ultimately today will likely be different because today we have news, tomorrow we also have news. We came up with a perfect weekly bias yesterday. But the thing about weekly biases is that they need time to play out and so I think today is going to be much higher probability of trading day compared to yesterday. Before I get into it, just realize that you have four days remaining until the big masterclass on this Saturday where I'm going to break down the full 80% win rate trading system that I've been using here on YouTube and I'm just going to break it all down in a free masterclass. If that sounds interesting to you, click the link below, sign up. But otherwise, let's get into the video. Now, first things first, when we come onto TradingView, we see that there's Black Friday. To those of you who are new to trading and you are thinking about whether or not this will be the best view of the year every year. It's already common knowledge amongst traders that Black Friday is the number one time to buy TradingView. So if you're thinking about it, don't think for too much longer. You have four days left to take advantage of this. I will put my referral link down below. That will get you a small discount. But I am not sponsored by them. It's just tool that I use and highly recommend that you use as well. Anyways, let's get into the video for today. So kicking things off on Bitcoin from the daily chart. We currently have a bullish daily bias. However, just like what we mapped out yesterday in terms of the weekly bias, when you have a weekly bearish bias, the first couple of days of the week could pump, in which case it will end up being the high of the week before we get the true movement of the week towards the downside. This is exactly what happened last week. This is also exactly what happened in two weeks ago. And so before we get into, you know, a bullish daily bias for today, we have to make sure that all of the signs are clear for a bullish move before we jump into this. Because otherwise we're just going to be playing into the manipulation of the smart money where they drive the prices up in the start of the week, half the week, Monday, Tuesday, bang, draw down towards the downside. So at the moment we are dealing with this fair value gap at the moment on bitcoin where we have already filled it, but at the moment it looks like we're getting rejected off of it. The lower timeframe is going to give us a much clearer picture though. And in terms of the lower time frame, what we can see is potentially, just potentially a market maker sell model. What I mean by this is that ultimately this is your smart money reversal. You have one impulse up, two impulses up into some sort of higher time frame key level, in which case that is the fevity gap that we are talking about. And from that point onwards, if you get a break in market structure, which let me just remove all the drawings for now. If you get a break in market structure which is going to occur at 85,850, this is known as a market maker cell model. And it is a model that we have used time and time again to quite literally predict every single major dump on bitcoin over the past like eight weeks or so. So this is a very high probability model. It just doesn't show up that often. But when it does, it's pretty powerful, especially when it's happening on the higher time frames. So just keep that in mind that even though we are having, you know, bullish market structure, just understand that we are currently still in the possibility of some sort of market maker sell model. Now, second of all, in terms of the one hourly chart, we can see that there is a reason to be bearish. There's also a reason to be bullish. Right? This is a bullish CISD and this will be a bearish cisd. Let me just go down to the five minute chart to see if, you know, there is a play that is, you know, making more sense. And one thing for sure, the direction for today is going to be a little bit unclear just because of the fact that we currently have a weekly bias that is down. The daily bias is pointing up, the one hourly time frame is pointing up. But we also have a reason to believe that there is market maker somewhat at play here. So I think the best way to approach today is going to be to observe what the price action does heading into the news timing. And in terms of the news timing, if you just take a look down below here, you have 8:30am and 10:00am as the major news of today, which means the ideal trading window for today is going to be an hour before news to an hour afternoons. So ideally we're going to be looking to enter our trades from anywhere between 7:30 to 9:30am and we're going to be looking to exit the trade enter time between 11am 12pm at least based on New York time. So what's really going to happen is there are two scenarios that this is going to, you know, kind of play out. But the first one is in my opinion the least, the less likely one just because of the fact that yes we have, you know, one hourly bullish CISD and everything but when given the choice between taking a signal that is based on the higher time frame versus the lower time frame, which in this case we have a bearish weekly bias plus a potential market maker sell model usually lean more in that direction. But at the same time we also have to deal with the fact that based on the system if you have a bullish daily bias you are looking for longs. And so far there are two scenarios that will play out here and both of these have to do with the Asia session low. So at the moment you can see that London has already swept out Asia's load which means this is potentially going to set up as some sort of an accumulation manipulation and distribution type of session, type of profile. Whether or not this will happen will highly depend on what happens when it comes time to around 7:30am when it comes to around 7:30am the reason I say this is that for example if you start having a five minute changes day of delivery and this continues until 7:30am and beyond then well you may be looking at an AMD setup. But in the event that when it comes time to around 7:30 you all you see is that price is getting rejected off of this level and you are forming bearish changes at delivery then well then the trade for today is very likely going to be towards the short direction. And of course as usual I will be posting a trade update on X. If I do decide to take any live trades or post them all on X but absolutely free, this is not going to be gated behind some signals group. But otherwise something else that you need to realize about this market maker sell model is the fact that this is not going to be confirmed until we get a one hourly candle close beneath 85,900. If we do though, well you are looking at much more downside at least for this weekly target to return back to $80,000. So just be careful of that. Now One of the other reasons why I'm not going to be looking to jump into a long way too soon is the fact that in terms of the daily chart you are still trading right into resistance. And second of all the fact that you have been breaking lower during the Asia session and the London session makes me Believe that you don't really want to be going long until at least this is broken, which is 88300 where you will get a one hourly change in state of delivery towards the bullish direction. So at the moment I know that, I know what you may be thinking, like, whoa, you know, I came here for a trade call, but like this guy's just giving me random scenarios. The truth is this is one of those days where you have quite a quite a lot of information all pointing in a different direction. There are many days in over the last 300 days that I've been making these daily videos where the trade is super straightforward. As an example, basically the last couple of weeks has been just, all right, just go short. Unfortunately, as much as I would love for this to be the case, not every day is going to be as straightforward as today. So my advice is to observe what the market is doing. Our job at the end of the day is not to predict what the market's going to do next, to simply mark out some high probability scenarios that are likely to happen. And, and when they happen, we'll have an exact game plan set. 1, 2, 3. And so this makes trading much more of a game of reading and reacting rather than a game of predicting, which is a loser's game, right? Nobody's able to consistently predict what the market's going to do. I know I've had some pretty decent results so far, but still I'm not trying to predict. I'm simply, you know, putting this raw information through my system and coming up with some sort of analysis which I present to you guys. And somehow that's gotten me to about an 8xm win rate, but still, I don't claim to know what the market's going to do next. And so as much as I would love to just give you a goal directly, like, okay, just do this, reality is this is just not enough information and I'm leaning a little bit more towards the downside, maybe like 60, 40 towards the downside. But time will tell. When it comes time to around 7:30am I'll definitely be on Twitter and I'll be posting an update. But otherwise, just take a look at Ethereum. Whoa. Ethereum had quite a big thump, but you are still trading into some sort of resistance. And, and over here you have that bearish FID gap in terms of Ethereum. I think the market maker sell model is even more clear because over here you have the fav gap. Smart money reversal. This first impulse up, second impulse up, and again this remains the level to be broken, which is 2785 before you really want to like start piling on the shorts. I don't know if this will happen when it comes time to the news. It could also just kind of bounce from, you know, this order block or this fe g and price starts heading up from here again, break. Both scenarios are valid. Just understand that today is a high probability trading day because ultimately we have news, which means there is going to be volatility. Unlike yesterday where nothing really happened, we're still going to be looking to trade today. It's just at the very moment I cannot responsibly just give you some sort of trade idea because there is at the moment not a super clear one ultimately. Like, I know a lot of you watch me every single day and you guys do actually take action on these calls and analyses. That's why I feel a great amount of responsibility to make sure I give you the best or like just the best quality trade that I could possibly give you to the best of my ability, at least every single day. Otherwise, in terms of Solana, you're trading into this sort of daily resistance at the moment and even though you have a bullish daily bias, again, you are still trading into higher time frame resistance. And same story here, market maker, sell model. So yeah, just understand that on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana at the moment you are looking very similar. And if there's one thing, and one thing you do today is not to open a trade on all three of these at the same time. Because ultimately, as you can see, it's the exact same chart. In the event that one dumps, everything's going to dump. So you think you're taking different trades, but in reality you're taking the same trade just three times with three times the amount of risk. But otherwise, make sure you sign up to the masterclass. It's going to be absolutely free and it's going to be fire. Because then I'm excited for this and yeah, see you guys on Twitter and see you guys in tomorrow's video.
