Bitcoin: More Downside Incoming?

What's up guys? Welcome back to another video. Yesterday it seems like a lot of you made money from the call. Literally every single scenario that I painted out pretty much happened. Like A, when price comes into here, you know, you expect a downside move that happened and then B, you get a second manipulation sometime later during the day where price, you know, forms another high in this level right here. And then off you go. I saw all of the Twitter comments of you guys just telling me like, hey, thank you for the call. Thank you for the call. I made money. I super happy to hear that. Me personally, I lost a trade. Like, I've already posted that on Twitter and you guys saw me losing the live trade, which is fine. Again, like, win or lose, it doesn't really matter. What matters is that I was following my process, I was following my system. And at the end of the day, as long as I can continue to do that day in, day out, over the long term, that's how I am going to win. Now, besides that, I think that puts us up to 114 after the last 144 trades called on this YouTube channel since February. And so, yeah, overall we're still, you know, having a very positive win rate. And if you're new to this channel, welcome. You're probably in the right place because we tend to be right more often than we're wrong. But otherwise, let's get into today's video. Today is going to be a lot more interesting. It's a lot more clear, at least compared to yesterday. And by yesterday I was like, okay, I have a reason to believe it's going up. I had a reason to believe it's going down and was a little bit tougher to, you know, kind of get a good understanding of where we were at. But today I think it's looking a little bit more clear. So just kicking things off on the daily chart, actually, before we go into the daily to pull in to talk about the weekly, real quick, we are still bullish for this week. Okay. Just based off of last week's candle close, we're looking for price to go below the weekly open where we can buy into the low of the week before price expands towards the upside. At least this is what we're looking for so far. Let's now, this could be different in the sense that, you know, mainly this week just ends up closing bearish. And that's what we look for when we go down into the lower time frames. So in terms of the lower time frame, the daily fav gap Right. Price ended up bouncing from the daily fav gap and put in a bullish, you know, daily candle close today. We have so far been giving a bearish reaction. Now, do we look for a long or do we look for a short? My answer is today, like, personally, I'm probably going to be leaning towards taking a short unless something changes. The reason for that is because on the one hourly chart here, if you take a look, you have now left behind multiple relatively equal lows. And yesterday, after getting rejected off of this order block right here, you just started going down and in fact you did a change in state of delivery on the one hourly chart. And at the moment, Price seems to be getting rejected off of this bearish order block right here, which means that right now, until you break above, at the very least, right on the one hour chart above 123,250, you're not really bullish yet. Right? If this happens though, then, yeah, you could potentially flip this bearish order block into a bullish order block and off you go. In that case, it's still valid. But until this happens, like, we're going to have to just take into account that, you know, the one average chance looking pretty bearish. Higher time frame is bullish. And I'm going to make a video actually later, like right after I finish recording this on, you know what to do when you know your higher time frame is pointing in one direction, but your lower time frame is pointing in the other direction. To share what's worked for me so far and has prevented me from, you know, losing a lot of bad trades has in fact helped me get a lot of good trades. And yeah, if you would like to see that, feel free to subscribe. Turn on the bell notification. I'll probably post it sometime in the next few days because I'm going to be recording this later. But anyways, like, going down into the lower time frame, like, let me just paint to you what I would like to see a is Price getting rejected from this bearish favority gap right here. And then for Price to actually head towards the downside, this also coincides with a weak high. A weak high basically is a high that formed without sweeping any sort of liquidity. So just to give you an example of what a strong high. So if you take a look here, this is a high that, you know, got swept by this move right here. And so during this entire down move, this is known as a strong high. Now, of course, strong highs, strong lows, they can always be revisited, but the chances of them being revisited. It's a little bit lower, I say a little bit, but it is quite a little bit lower than weak highs and weak lows, where, you know, with weak lows, for example, here you have relatively equal lows. You are going to look for this as a target. Because we close at relatively equal lows, they tend to act as low magnet for price. So again, that is level number one, that is level number two. And of course, you have your bearish oil block right here as level number three. Now, there is a potential that price could get rejected from any one of them. Again, kind of like how I've already prefaced in yesterday's video. Us as traders, we are not trying, like, we're not in the business of predicting what the market's going to do next. We're in the business of understanding what price action is trying to tell us. And then based on various scenarios that we've mapped out, we're simply reading and reacting. This is what I try to do with these videos here, just to give you guys a very good idea of what to expect as you head into the day. So that, you know, let's say scenario B, scenario B happens and you have condition 1, 2, 3 that are met. And so this is step 1, 2, 3 that you should take. This is what I'm trying to do with these videos. And I urge you, if you are trading in a sense that you're trying to like, you're making decisions based on predicting what is the next move, that's a, that's a losing strategy because truthfully, you have hedge funds out there. You have investors and traders that have been doing this for multiple decades. You have the smartest minds in the world from Harvard or Oxford or whatever, and they're developing all of these algorithms and technology and you have access to all of this insider information. And all of of them are trying to just do one thing, which is predict the next move to the markets, and they fail. So what makes you think that you and I, and I speak for myself as well? Like, you and I, we're just breaking up people. What makes us think that we are so great that we can beat all of these people and, you know, predict the market better than them or simply do something that they are not able to do? Yeah, again, that was a bit of a rant. But the key point here is that as traders, we're in the business of reading and reacting, not, not predicting. And in this case, either one of these levels could be valid, especially when they hit at a certain time. And in Terms of the timing here today there is no news. Which means ideally we are going to just be trading between 7am to 10am New York. Again, because we have no if there was news there would be a much more specific timing that we could take advantage of this. But in this case, like yeah, 7:00am to 10:00am New York, that's all we're looking for. Essentially you want to look for price to come up into this per gap or this per gap anytime around the hours of 7 to 8am and once this happens and you start seeing a 5 minute change in set of delivery, basically you just want to see order flow going into bearish. Essentially seeing bearish order blocks and bearish favorite gaps being respected. And once you see that then that's going to be your entry trigger for price. To go towards the downside, you can take a 2R and fun fact, yesterday you would have had multiple opportunities to take two R trades. And now that I'm zooming out on the one hourly. Oh my God, I'm just realizing this now there is a potential market maker. Sumo, this is something that I discussed within the big camp call yesterday with the existing students and good to see that it's already kind of played out. So this is your first base right here. This is your second base and then your third impulse move heading into a higher time frame, Bearish PD array before you break market structure and you break order flow. And this is known as a market maker sub model. This is textbook. And so today the intraday target is going to be right here at 120,500. I don't know if it's going to get hit today or not, but definitely by the end of this week you are going to take this out because this is just how a market maker sub model works. Right now. This is just adding more confluence that yeah, the daily chart is pointing towards the upside. But again, like the one hourly chart, we have more reasons than not to believe that things are looking bearish. If we did not get this change instead of delivery here, I would have been more inclined to call something like this. But as it stands at the moment, yeah, it's just looking pretty bearish. And so we're going to be looking for bearish trades today. Now as usual, I am going to be posting any live trades that I do take on Twitter. So feel free to follow me at the Art of Crypto. If there are any, you know, ideas that I'm sharing, it's going to be on there. But otherwise I think that's about all we need to know in terms of Bitcoin next we're going to move into ETH and Solana. But before that just going to take a look, one quick glance at the five minute chart. Just understand where we are in terms of the Asia session. And yeah, the Asia session high is all the way up there, which means that usually on a bearish day we want to look ideally for the Asia high to get swept because that's just a key level. If it's swept and price starts heading down from there, that's a great sign. Now not to say that it cannot happen, but there is 1, 2, 3 levels of resistance to go to and so more likely than not, I do think that price is going to get rejected from either one of these three zones and again you're going to just look for this at around the key timing zones and when it happens then yeah, feel free to just take short and target for 2R, potentially leave a runner for that 12500 level that I talked about based on the market maker. And yeah, you're going to be pretty good doing that. Now moving on to theory, this was actually the live trade that I took yesterday. I ended up losing that of course because my stop loss got invalidated. Now later on there was another couple of entries that I could have jumped back in. So on Twitter I posted that if there was, you know, if certain conditions are met, I'll be happy to just jump right back into another trade. Thing is yesterday, you know, after the session, like after my trading session, it was already like 11:30pm so yeah, wasn't looking forward to, you know, staying up the whole night again if you couldn't tell like somewhere in Asia. And yesterday news was dropping at 2pm which means that it would have been very much deep into the midnight for me. So yeah, I'm just going to call it a no trade. So yeah, essentially Ethereum. Right now we. Let's take a look. So it's a close bullish as well. But again it's that thing that I mentioned yesterday. This entire block here is already known as a bearish oil block on the daily chart. And so actually going to be looking for price to get rejected off of here to go lower instead of higher. So that's something to watch out for going into the one hourly chart. Let's take a look here. Oof. Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. That is definitely changing state of delivery. And price has already retraced back into the change in state of delivery and right now you're still heading towards the downside so for the most part I think the setup for Ethereum is going to be very similar compared to Bitcoin. Again, the three fair value gaps, the three, sorry, the two fab gaps and the order block right here are both in play now. Oh, one other scenario that I forgot to mention on Bitcoin just now that I'm looking at ETH is that if Price just ends up breaking lower from this point onwards, like for example, if you get a candle close underneath 4411 then look for this to become the new order block and potentially if this lines up with the timing that I mentioned, 7 to 10am, then that's going to be when you want to jump into a short. Same thing on Bitcoin, I would presume. Yeah, same thing with Bitcoin. Like if you do not feel this further to go and you just break lower immediately, then don't hesitate to also go for a momentum trade. There's also the possibility where you will break below here before you get a wick into this, before you go down again, I don't know what's going to happen, but I've given you again three scenarios here. All of them are pointing towards the downside. Depending on which conditions are met, you know exactly, you know what to do here and the only thing to watch out is I do think it's more likely that we do at least fill one favity gap before going down. So this I don't think is as likely. Now I'm not trying to predict what the market's going to do, just giving you my 2 cents on what I think. Of course, take it with a huge grain of salt. Am a retail trader, much like, much like you for all I know. I don't know what I'm talking about. So anyways, that is also the setup in this case. The Asia high is also really high, so don't expect that to get swept. So yeah, Ethereum is pretty straightforward. Would presume as well that Solana is going to look pretty much the same and yeah, potentially. Potentially, yes. Potentially no. Solana is looking a little bit stronger compared to eth and at the moment this is, this is the potential bearish water block that we're dealing with at the moment. The reason why that is a bearish body block is because you got a change delivery to the downside there and Price is currently in this bearish order block which means that Solana is not going to be super, super bullish until you break above 250 at the very least on the daily chart. If that Happens then. Yeah, absolutely. Look to flip this, but that's the resistance that we're working with. Solana. I actually do see a world where we can potentially go for a long here and that world is going to involve breaking above this level right here at 230 at the very least. And then ideally even 231, if you can break above here, you can potentially come down into all of this support and go higher. Am I going to take a longer Solana today? Probably not. I would probably lean towards the outside. But like Solana is one of those trades where at the moment where you know the daily chart's pointing towards the upside, it's not super bearish, especially compared to Ethereum. The one hourly is also not super bearish. But you did get that change of state of the Libby. Yeah, heck. Um, you know what, look for shorts on Solana today and in fact I'll probably just give you guys an update. Yeah, for Solana I think you want to just look for shorts here because this is a strong high right here. We've gotten changes that are delivery price is retracing into a very key level of resistance. Of course, if you start breaking lower from this point onwards then yeah, if you, by the time you watch this video, if price breaks below 224, it's going to be your trigger to just get into the trade like that. Otherwise look for these relatively low highs to get swept, potentially these ones, and then for price to head lower later during the New York session. Now the one last scenario that I will talk about is the fact that today is a non Newsday. So there is also the chance where price is just not going to do anything today. Right. So it's just going to be a very choppy day. It's not out of this eye of the realm of possibility because today's an on Tuesday, tomorrow we're going to have news. If you take a look here, tomorrow at 10am we're going to get news. And so potentially tomorrow is going to be the much higher quality trading day. I don't know, just taking a guess here. So if nothing happens today at 7:00am to 10:00am then yeah, feel free to just sit today out. You know how the saying goes, right? Not every day is a trading day. Not every week is a trading week. Today could potentially not be a trading day. But I'll definitely keep you guys posted on Twitter at Underscore the art of crypto. But otherwise I am going to get started with my cigar and going to enjoy a little bit of work. Fun fact. Personally, I love cloudy weather. So growing up in Asia, it's always like super hot and humid, especially in Malaysia. So whenever we get cloudy days, you know, that's a bit of a. It offers a bit of respite from the heat and the humidity. So growing up, like, I've always been conditioned to love cloudy days. I know every single Westerner that I've met do not enjoy cloudy days. Right? For you guys, at least for most of you watching my videos, I see the analytics. Most of you are from Australia, America, Canada, Germany, Spain, Italy, the uk. I think these you. Well, some from Singapore as well. And. But for the majority of the like, for the majority, you know, white people tend to dominate this. The large chunk of the audience that watches me, I know for you guys, sunny days are the best days. For you guys, personally, this is it. Being able to sit here without being blasted by the sun and having, like, nice, cool weather. This has happened to me. Anyways, I'll see you guys. Ciao, ciao.