A crypto trader outlines a bearish Bitcoin setup for the week's final trading day, targeting a move down to $49-50k based on a 2021 swing-low pattern. He plans to enter shorts on a one-hour CISD with a retrace, using the same candlestick system across Ethereum, Solana, and other assets, with live trade updates on X.
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All right, what's good, guys? Welcome back to another video. Today is the last trading day of the week. Today we also had news and also I did a preliminary analysis on bitcoin earlier and so far, so good. Things seem to be playing out. And I think at the moment we're going to have a pretty decent trading day. Now, whether or not that plays out or not is another story. And by the way, yesterday, like, if you guys follow me on Twitter, I was trying to like trade the markets and ultimately we had a decent setup in Solana. It ultimately did not end up playing out because bitcoin was looking super shaky. I actually did a trade breakdown. It's like a seven minute trade breakdown and it teaches you how to manage your altcoin positions, especially when bitcoin's looking shaky. I think this is something that a lot of people are not really aware of. If you would like to get access to that trade breakdown. Usually it's only for blueprint students, but right now it's on Instagram stories. Feel free to like click the first link in the description box below. But otherwise, let's get into the trade breakdown of the day. Not trade breakdown. Let's get into the trade for the day. So so far we have a bearish daily bias. And looking at the chart so far and at the moment we are fast approaching that previous daily low sl, this daily F gap. Now one thing to understand though is that because we did not get that bullish CISD on the daily chart, we are overall still looking really bearish on the daily. And so ideally in these types of market conditions, we want to be prioritizing shorts. Or at the very least, I do think that shorts will have a higher chance of playing out compared to longs. And the moment we go into the one hourity chart is when you're able to see, you know, that scenario that I drew out is kind of of playing out. Basically what I wanted to see before the news session today is a CISD on the one hour towards that direction. And we have 26 minutes left until the hourly candle closes. But I think there's a pretty decent chance that by the time you watch this video, the CISD will have already happened. And when it does, you're simply going to be looking for a retrace back into the CISD zone. Slash this higher F gap that we've already formed on the one hour chart, basically retracing back into here or there, then you're going to head towards the downside. Now going down into the five minute chart we can see that the Asia low has been swept. Yes, but today since the daily vice is towards the downside, we have a couple of hourly PD arrays that supports the downside theory. That is the trade that we're going to be looking for today. Now if you take a look at news today we have news at 8:30am on both the USD and the Canadian dollar which which means that the ideal trading window for today is going to be the hour before news to the hour after news. Basically you're going to want to look for that retrace to either one of the PD arrays and for a five minute CISD starting from 7:30am all the way until 8:30am and potentially even after that. Now I will be posting any live executions on Twitter so feel free to follow me there if you want to just follow along the live trades and it's not gated behind some signals groups or whatever. Like speaking about USD Canadian dollar though it is actually looking super clean in the idea that I'm just going to take a couple of minutes to share the setup on USD Canadian for any one of you that trades forex yesterday. The bias is bullish but so far the like based on what we can see from the chart it is like breaking down towards the bearish direction. Earlier on today I marked this out. If you guys follow me on Twitter you would have seen this already. I marked this out and essentially it is looking to play out. Now by the time you guys watch this video, the biggest confirmation like to get into this trade is if you get a hourly CISD underneath this level right here. If you do as you head into that news window this is going to be one of the textbook just super easy trades. Not only do you have a couple of friends of equal lows over here but flat you also have this single print candle over there. So that is going to be the intraday target and potentially even lower. But just keep in mind like I know a lot of you follow me because I do you know, videos on bitcoin but the truth is if you've seen any sort of success from the system, just understand that this works across every single, you know, major market. As long as you have a candlestick pattern it is usually going to work. Now I haven't tested it on stocks so I wouldn't say that it works on stocks just purely based on personal experience like which I have none but but like as far as even meme coins go, like I've used this on meme coins to a great deal of success. Just understand that Having access or just being able to trade Forex or trading other asset classes gives you so much more flexibility. Because it's not every day that Bitcoin is going to have some sort of setup. It's not every day, in fact, that you're going to have a nice setup on bitcoin. In fact, it's not every day that you're going to have a nice setup on, you know, crypto as a whole. Case in point, the last couple of months has been incredibly rough for crypto assets in general because of how choppy the market has been. And in times like this, it is an amazing thing to just be able to say, oh, hey, we've got a good setup on gold today. Oh, hey. Boom. If after looking, you know, after scanning through the charts, boom. NASDAQ looks good, you have a clear setup on USD, Canadian and whatnot. And you can just head into those Forex charts. Like the application of the system is exactly the same. It's just a different kind of like packaging, right? Instead of BTC usdt, you're looking at USDC ad, but the mechanism, you know, the chart and everything, like it's applied the same way. So if any of you are put off by, you know, Forex, like do be, it's a lot simpler than you may imagine. I know that the overall interface and the fact that you have to use a different broker, you have to use different execution platforms may feel a bit intimidating because you've never done it before, which is perfectly normal. But just understand that it's a. It's a lot easier than you might think. But anyways, moving off from my spiel, move on to Ethereum. Ethereum. We're looking at a bearish bias so far. Like saying compared to Bitcoin, you are already having that very cisd. So in Ethereum's case, you're going to be looking for price to just simply return back into this order block right here and you're going to be looking for price to continue towards the downside, of course, like apply that news window timing to this trade and you're going to be all good. Now, as far as Solana goes, you have also already. No, not yet. You haven't confirmed that bullish CISD yet. Now one of the interesting things is that, you know, Solana does look a little bit more bullish compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum. But the fact that Bitcoin is going to point towards the downside today is simply means that regardless of how bullish Solana might be looking, like it is just like you're just going to be looking for a short today. By the time that CISD gets confirmed, you are either going to have that CISD line or you're going to have this verbigab that you can trade from. And either way, like you're just going to be looking for a trade towards the downside. Now this trade ultimately will get invalidated in the event that you get a hourly close above this level right here, which is at 67,600. That is going to mean that know whatever scenario that I just drew out here, it is just going to end up being a no trade. Again, I am not trying to make a prediction as to how the markets are going to go. Like the OGs who have been watching this channel for a while, like you know how this works. I'm not making a prediction. I'm just giving you a couple of scenarios that are most likely to play out. I have some, you know, a set of conditions that comes with those scenarios and if those conditions are met, you take the trade. If the conditions are not met, then guess what, we're going to end up with a no trade. But either way, like I'm really glad that we're close to the end of February because like this month so far has been incredibly rough. Hopefully in March we're going to get much more clear price action or like just looking at the overall situation in bitcoin. I think as we open and as we head into the next month, there's going to be a lot of potential for price. Just immediately shoot for the 60k level and heck, if you're going to shoot for the 60k level, that's I don't think there's going to be anything much to stop it from going lower. So in the event that you guys are looking to buy the dip or whatnot, now is not the time yet. At least not while the market is continually forming, you know, bearish candles. Not only is it forming bearish candles but like overall market structure wise, you are completely bearish on the weekly chart. And so I do think that reasonable target that we go for is at the very least at 50k. So like 49k to be exact. You after sweeping that low, that is when we might potentially get some sort of V shaped recovery. This is a lot or rather this is very reminiscent to a bottom that we had all the way back in 2021 where not only like after we swept some really, really key levels, like for example, once you bottom out here, you started ranging and once you swept the range low. That is when you know that next bull market begins. But even before that, if you take a look at price, this was a very major swing low on the weekly chart. Once that got taken out, if you guys remember, like from back then, people used to think like, oh yeah, you know, the bull market's over and whatnot. And. But as price takes out this key level here on the weekly chart, then you get a second wind. I do think that it is a potential. I'm not saying that, you know, bull market, bear market or whatever, but like, I do think that the market is not going to show any sort of major reversal until this major liquidity target is taken. So I'm not saying. I'm also not saying like, okay, absolutely, set your limit orders there and you're going to be good. It's more like if there is going to be a place where a reversal is bound to happen, it's probably going to be there. So I'm just going to remain patient until we at least sweep that level. And I'm going to adapt my approach accordingly. By the way, I'm going to see you guys on X later. Have a good weekend. Ciao, ciao.
