Bitcoin: More Downside Today?

What's up guys? Welcome back to another video. Going to make another intraday call on Bitcoin today. It's looking pretty interesting so far. But before I get into today's video though, if you want my long term kind of outlook on bitcoin, just to understand what's going to happen over the next two to three months, I actually spent the first 10 minutes of yesterday's video breaking that all down. So if you would like the long term outlook, I'm going to link the video down below. But otherwise, yeah, let's talk about yesterday's trade before we continue on to today's video. Now ultimately we did mention that ideally we wanted to start looking for trades around 9:30 to like 11:00am and the majority of the move that happened at 10:30 was to the downside. Nothing much that we could do there, to be honest, because once you got the CISD you didn't quite retrace into it. So yesterday ended up being a no trade for me, including the people inside the VIP group. And speaking about the VIP group, we did call a reversal yesterday after Nvidia earnings. If you'd like to just get more kind of like inside update from myself, feel free to first sign up to the masterclass that's going to be happening in nine days. And feel free to sign up for VIP if you want to get, you know, direct Q and A from myself. But otherwise, let's get into today's video, starting things off on the daily chart. We have a bearish daily bias because yesterday we closed bearish. However, so far the price action is looking quite bullish, but we're going to try to break that down. Just understand that in terms of the higher time frame, we have not yet changed out of bearish order flow in terms of the daily chart, in terms of the one hourly chart, in terms of even the weekly and the five minute, we are still looking pretty bearish. So the fact that we have a daily kind of close towards the bearish direction yesterday is not necessarily going to be a bad thing when it comes to the intraday trades. The only thing that I would kind of keep in mind is the fact that at the moment we are sitting at this weekly order block, sorry, we're sitting at this weekly fiber gap at the moment and we are expected to bounce from this area within the next, you know, three to four weeks. Again, I kind of broke it down in yesterday's video when I talked about the long term outlook and especially if you are swing trading, kind of broke that down already. So I'M not going to get into that too much today, but just understand that even though we are at a bullish level, it doesn't mean that we just start going long right away. We only go long after we get confirmation from the markets that, hey, not only is order flow changing to the upside, but also market structures changing to the upside. Until that happens, we are going to just stay put and continue trading what the market is telling us. And at the moment, so far, the daily bias is bearish and so we're probably going to be looking for shorts today. Now, the only other caveat that I would kind of mention from yesterday's trade, now that I'm looking at the one hourly chart, is that it's very clear that since, you know, the 18th, which is like a couple days ago, bitcoin has been in a bit of a range. And if you know anything about this system, or at least if you've been watching more than one video over the last, you know, kind of 300 days that I've been making these daily videos, there's one thing that this system struggles with, which is ranging conditions. So it's perfectly normal for the system to struggle. It's perfectly normal to have days where, you know, we are expecting something to happen, but eventually, you know, the criteria for the trade doesn't get met and we end up being a no trade. This has already happened once earlier this week and it happened yesterday. Again. Just understand that this is not due to the system not working. It's simply, you know, you got to take into account market conditions. There are cases where we get a couple of weeks of just really nice trending conditions and the system performs amazingly. For example, last week I called four trades and four winners. We basically, yeah, just made a whole lot of money. And this week been a bit different. And it's not that the system doesn't work right, just got to take into account what the market conditions are like. But anyways, taking a look at the one early chart, we have a bullish cisd. But I think this is going to be a little bit misleading because this is still a bearish order block that price is currently traded into. Let me just remove this weekly F gap, not to confuse you guys. So just understand at the moment we have started to do a trading higher. If you know anything about the power of theory, which I talk about quite often when it comes to the power of three, right. If you are bearish for the day, you ideally want the day to. Let's say this is the daily open. You want to See, price actually go higher in the earlier parts of the day, so that this gives you an opportunity to kind of sell high into the high of the day before the true move where, you know, it starts going lower. This has played out perfectly in last week's case. Even this week, it has played out quite nicely. This is a concept that is fractal, that applies to every time frame. And once you understand how to use the power of three, this is something that is like magic. So this is a bit of a manipulation move, at least based on what I can see. And outside of of that, we have, you know, this order block and we potentially have another one up here. Although I do not expect this one to get filled for the reason that if this one gets filled, it's very likely that we're going to see a bullish changes to delivery on the one hourly chart. And in the event that we get all the way up to $94,000, it's going to kind of invalidate this bearish scenario. So the way that I'm seeing it right now is that you either start falling from here or at the moment you have this bearish order block that is being formed at the moment. And price, price is probably going to break lower. By the time you watch this video, something like this is probably going to happen. Now that we have our higher time frame key levels marked down, let's go ahead and head down to the lower time frames just to see what else we've got. And prior to the London session, you can see that the Asia session high was actually swept. And so far the majority of London has been trading below the midpoint of Asia. Now this is a, this is kind of a good sign because the fact that Asia highs has already been taken right into some sort of key level on one hourly chart means that this is likely the manipulation, right? Potentially the high of the day. Now, this is not certain by any means, but it's an, it's a bit of information that we can use to our advantage. This so far is kind of like a value area that got broken below. Right now you're retesting a value area and you are at the moment heading towards the downside. So right now there are only two possible scenarios that I would see for a short trade today. The first of which is that by the time you watch this video, in the event that you are breaking lower than $91,800, you're going to want to look for a retrace into this newly formed order block and for price to continue dumping that's going to be scenario number one. Scenario number two is that you potentially could come all the way up to, you know, again, fill this in without a one hourly changes, state of delivery and then you dump from that point onwards. As for which one I think is going to be more likely, I think this one makes a little bit more sense. This could be further kind of like broken down once we understand when news is going to happen. And if we take a look at the economic calendar today, we have news, non farm payrolls, which is an amazing piece of news, probably one of the highest probability piece of news that we are going to see all month. And it's going to be happening at 8.30am so the ideal trading window for today is going to be anywhere between 7.30am to about 9.30am now also we have another piece of news at 10am so that extends the kind of trading window from 7:30 all the way up till 11am now the reason why 7:30 is the key here is because usually when you have news, high impact news, the hour before news to the hour after news tends to be the highest probability. You know, kind of trading window where you expect a trade setup to form around the hour before and for the trade to continue running until the hour after. So what you're going to want to look for is very simple. When you see this at around 7:30am this is going to be the setup. If you see this around the hour of 7:30am to 8:30am then that is going to be the setup. Unfortunately, I do not have a crystal ball. I cannot tell you which one is going to be, you know, the scenario that happens. But what I can tell you is the likely scenarios that will happen today and the conditions required for these scenarios to get fulfilled. The intraday target for today is going to be remaining pretty straightforward. It's going to be just at 88,600. Now I do not expect price to go all the way to 88600 but in the event that you go here, it would be a good place to close out your intraday trades. Now this is of course it goes without saying that most of your trades you should take some sort of profit. 50, 66, 75, whatever, it's up to you at 2o, which means by the time that you take this trade, let's say this is a sample trade, right? This is going to be 2R. Once you take some profit, your runner, you're going to take the rest. There at least this is so far the call for bitcoin from an intraday perspective as usual. If you would like to just follow along with my live trades, if you want to see exactly the trade that I am taking or just follow along with more updates as the day goes, feel free to follow me on X because that's where I'm going to be posting the live trades. But outside of that, let's take a look at Ethereum real quick. Bearish daily bias, pretty straightforward going down to the 1 hourly chart, this is looking well at the very least, the bearish picture for Ethereum is a little bit more clear compared to Bitcoin. Because right now you're just trading into this bearish order block and by the time you watch this video, it's very likely that you are going to break below this level right here at $33,019 basically. And if that happens, this is also going to become a new bearish order block. So you're just going to want to look to momentum trade this lower. So pretty straightforward in terms of ETH. And the intraday target remains very straightforward as well. 2870 is what you're going to be looking at and of course take some profit at 2r, take some profit at 3r, nothing too much to discuss there. Now in terms of Solana right off the get go, I'm seeing that this is looking a little bit more bullish compared to the other two assets that we just took a look at. But still the dice today is still going to be towards the downside. Although given the choice between Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana, I'm definitely going to lean more towards Bitcoin and Ethereum for shorts purely so simply by the fact that the charts look much weaker and Solana just looks, you know, relatively stronger compared to both of those. Right. This is just using what is known as relative strength to determine which asset you should be prioritizing in the direction of the trade that you should take. But otherwise, in terms of the daily chart, just understand that right now we are trading into some sort of daily fabric up. In the event that you come into this fabric gap, you are going to want to look for price to actually go lower from this point onwards or at this bearish order block right here. And the fair bit gap in question is going to be at around $146. But that is going to be, you know, outside of the scope of the intraday trade that we're going to be calling today. Taking a look at Solana, you are fast approaching the range highs, I would even say, like just avoid Solana for today. Because chances are like even if you go down from this one onwards, you are going to leave behind relatively equal highs, which means that you may have a short momentary, you're kind of dump, but then you're going to come up, sweep out the liquidity before price continues heading lower. In terms of longs, I probably wouldn't go long on Solana either because the daily bias on Bitcoin and ETH is both towards the downside. A long on Solana would basically only work out if Bitcoin and Ethereum does not poop the bed tonight. So yeah, in terms of Solana, this is going to look like more of a no trade because we have a clear kind of like area where we would like to see price go before we start taking a trade. And also the one hourly kind of order flow as well as the daily bias is just going in opposing directions, which is not what we want to see because ultimately when we take any sort of phrase, we want to look for time frame alignment, which means if I'm taking along on Solana, ideally I want the five minute, the one hourly and the daily time frame to all be pointing towards the upside and vice versa for when I am looking for shorts and in this very moment you don't really have that. So I would much prioritize Bitcoin or eth and again, both are valid. By the time you see this video, this scenario that I've mentioned will already be in play. So yeah, hope you guys enjoyed. I'll see you guys tomorrow. Ciao, ciao.