Bitcoin: Most Will Fall For This CPI Trap

What's up guys? Welcome back to another video. Unfortunately, yesterday ended up being one of the first losses that we've had in a while and I take full responsibility for that. Essentially yesterday I gave you guys the setup of, you know, either retracing into this further gap or that favorite gap. Then once you get a five minute change in state of delivery during the New York session, in between the hours of 7am to 10am, which we indeed got here, I believe that was the cisd. Now, some of you could argue that it's over here, but either way, I was saying, you know, almost for certain that it's, hey, par is going to continue going upwards. So the trade setup is arguable, like whether or not it was, you know, present in the first place. But definitely the direction was wrong. And so that puts us down to 82 wins over the last 98 videos that I've made here on YouTube. So anyways, if you are new to the channel, just understand that you're probably in the right place because we tend to be right more often than we're wrong. But otherwise, let's get into the play for bitcoin today and this is going to be also like. But then. And based on what bitcoin is doing at the moment, you guys are going to want to hear this. So first of all, let's start off on the weekly chart. Things are still looking incredibly bullish, but in the context of just the daily candle for today, what you specifically want to pay attention to IS1, the weekly bias is towards the upside because you got a bullish weekly close. But if you draw a fib from the high to low of that previous weekly candle. And this is going to be a pro tip for any of you who have never heard of this concept. Like, if you are familiar with the concept of premium and discount, let's just say that most people tend to do it wrong, or at least use it wrong. One of the best ways to use premium discount, actually, and especially the equilibrium line, is that when you get aggressive movements, price tends to not retrace beyond the 50% line of the candle. And so you can look for areas of retracement only within the first 50%. Now people tend to say like, oh yeah, you know, if you look to buy, you want to look to buy in a discount. But the reality of it is that when you're doing this on a higher time frame, you actually do not want to buy in a discount because that shows weakness. Ideally, when you have big bullish candles, you want to look for Continuation below, like basically above the 50 line. And so this brings me on to the second point, which is the moment you go into the daily chart. This fair value gap aligned with. Now basically this is the 50 line of the weekly candle and this is the fair bit gap. And so far price seems to be retracing back into this fair bit gap. And if you go back again to the weekly chart, one of the other things that we can do on the weekly chart is to predict what is going to be the power of three. In this case, a power of three means that if you are bullish for the week, you would anticipate price opening right, potentially going lower before later going higher. This is going to be the true move. This is going to be kind of like forming the low of the week. And this is the exact same theory that I used last week in order to predict that hey, the first couple of days of the week were going to be down weeks and then the rest of the week was going to be up weeks to the point where I even predicted the new all time high. And this is the exact same concept that I used to do that. This just so happens to align with the fact that Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday are Newsdays, which means that Monday and Tuesday could just need to setup days before you get the true move happening on Wednesday and Thursday. Now granted today is cpi, so it can still be pretty volatile, but still you get the point. So now that we have a decent idea of what's going on on the daily chart, so we can anticipate, reasonably anticipate today or potentially even tomorrow to form some kind of low of the week within this per gap here before the rest of the week continues to expand towards the upside. And when we go onto the one hourly chart, we can also see a very similar thing going on right now because this is known as a bearish change in state of delivery, at least on one hourly chart. Now previously you could have set this one, but the fact that you have also broken below this one means that this is at this point undeniable cisd. This also means that today we are probably not going to be looking for longs because right now if we go for long, then what we're running into is time frame misalignment. The daily chart closed bullish, but so far the price action is going bearish. So basically if we start going long today, we are running into some kind of time frame misalignment because the one hourly chart had the moment is showing bearish change in state of delivery. And until this changes like we don't really want to be taking longs. Now, the five minute could indicate some kind of bullishness because this is the Asia session, this is the London session. And so far from what you can see during the London session, you have swept below the Asia lows. Now, if you have followed this channel for a while, you know that session profiles are a big part of this trading system where, you know, you tend to get two different types of manip, like just session profiles. One is your typical AMD where Asia becomes accumulation. London manipulates. Right. Basically this is the false move before the true move comes in New York, which is the distribution. Following this theory, you know, you could potentially say that New York today is going to go to the upside. Now there is a world for that. Because the daily chart, you know, the daily bias eastwards, the upside, the five minute, if you get it, it's going to be bullish as well. The only problem with that is that the one hourly chart is not going to be aligned with this for reasons that I've already discussed. This changes though, if this level here gets closed above, essentially this is at the moment your bearish order block. Now, usually in when price is in bearish order flow, bearish order blocks tend to get respected. And so if you get this bearish order block here being disrespected, this is known as A1 hourly changes set at delivery. And so if you get a candle close above 117,500, this is going to be the signal for you to jump into longs for the rest of the day. Now, whether or not that is going to happen within the next like 3 hours, 4 hours or so until CPI. I just give you an idea. I'm recording this video at the moment at 4am and like we have about four and a half hours before CPI. Whether or not this will happen in the next, you know, four and a half, five, six hours, I don't know. But this will be the scenario that you want to look for when it comes to going long. And by the way, if you enjoy the way that I read the charts and also you have, if you have also seen the fact that I tend to be right much more often than I'm wrong. And if you would like to learn this system for yourself by working with me one on one, yes, me and you to get you equipped with this system within the next 30 days, then feel free to click the link in the description box below and sign up for Bootcamp with one more spot in this intake before we close for this month and then we'll likely open again maybe mid of next month. But anyways, going back to the video, if the AMD setup is potentially not likely today, then the second kind of profile is going to be an ABC profile. And this would make sense with this fairly gap target in mind. Now an ABC means accumulation. London breaks out and then in New York you get continuation. And the way this is going to look like is within the next couple of hours, basically between the hours of 5am to 7am you're going to want to look for New London to form a new swing low and then potentially retracing into some kind of key level which I will share in just a bit before continuing downwards towards 115. The target in this case would be 115, 300 to potentially just 115 flat. The area of interest in this case is going to be one this bearish order block. We have already kind of identified that. The second one we can also potentially find from the five minute chart. And we can see that this area here is kind of like a value area. And so in the event where you retrace it into either one of these levels, you could potentially also just sweep up this high before going downwards. That will be the setup for today. And for those of you who are wondering, hey, you know, if you actually go above this level, wouldn't that show, you know, bullishness? Because if you go above this level then hey, you know, you're supposed to be looking for longs. The difference here is you want to see a one hourly candle close. It doesn't count if you get just a sweep above the high. And let me show you an example of that if I can. So if you get just a five minute sweep above this level but you fail to close above it, then this is also manipulation before price continues to the downside. So scenario A today is going to be A, B, C. If I had to put my money somewhere, I would probably assume that you're going to come down here just because of how close you are already to this fair value gap. It only makes sense that you fill it first before you give, you know, upside continuation. Especially considering the fact that at least on the one hourly chart at the moment it is, you know, bearish and it's going to take a little bit of time before you know, this potentially confirms into bullish. And the second scenario is going to be an AMD where you indeed get bullish upside, in which case the setup is pretty clear. Now I wish I could give you a more like clear Cut answer for today. But the fact of the matter is that the daily chart at the moment is pointing towards the upside. The one hourly chart at the moment is pointing towards the downside. And that is a problem because right now the chart is not, you know, screaming out at us like really obviously like, hey, today is an update or today is a down day. It's a little bit different from yesterday, for example, where Sunday we had a bullish candle close. If you go onto the one hourly chart, it was also very bullish. And so that was really obvious. And then boom, the five minute was also really bullish. But ultimately we did end up losing trade. But that's not a problem because we're trading as a system. And I think one of the biggest lessons that beginners need to learn, especially you know, to get from 0 to 1 when it comes to trading is trust. Like just trading your system regardless of what the market is showing you or how you're feeling. Like as long as all the conditions of my system are checked out, then yeah, I'm just going to, you know, I'm just going to act accordingly. I'm not going to doubt the system or whatever. And sure, even when you do everything right, you are still going to lose sometimes. That's just the nature of trading. It is a probabilities game. At the end of the day, there's no such thing as a 100%. Now we can stack the odds in our favor by making sure that a trade that we're taking checks out most of the boxes within the system. And as long as we're doing that right, that's the input we go through the process. Ultimately the chances of us getting the right output is going to be, you know, much higher than if you were just, you know, to just do it randomly, rely on your feelings or whatever. And in today's case, that is also the reason why I am not giving you guys a very clear cut answer. Because following the system that I've used to achieve an 80% win rate over the last five months, there is no clear answer. Like one time frame is pointing up, one time frame is pointing down. It is what it is. And that's why it's more important today to just you accept the market conditions for what it is. You know, it's a little bit more uncertain market conditions. And so we just prepare for both the up and down scenario. Whichever one happens, that's the one that we're going to take. Either way, the scenarios are mapped out clearly and the timing for today that you're going to want to look for to take the majority of your trades is going to be between the hours of like 7:30, maybe 8:00am all the way until 9:30am that's going to be your trading window for today because you have CPI at 8:30am today. This is a big news event and to those of you who do not understand the significance of news, just understand that every day in trading you're always dealing with multiple variables. One is direction right, is it going to go up or is it going to go down? Secondly, how far up? How far down? And then third is timing news. News days are great because you pretty much know that something's going to happen at 8:30am you may not be sure like if it's going to go up or down, but you know something's going to happen. So at least it is a predictor of volatility. And so that is where you want to be focusing most of your trading kind of like window at. And just remember if you are feeling a little bit uncertain today, you know, for example, yesterday price did not give us the signals that we needed in order to have upside continuation for today. It could end up just being, you know, a little bit more uncertain of a day. And if you ever feel uncertain today, just understand that you can always come back tomorrow again. The weekly, you know, PO3 setup that I've already given you, like how much better would it be if you were to fill in this favorite gap first and then tomorrow if we get some bullish signs like that's going to give us so much more certainty heading into the trade and ultimately that's what's going to get you over the top. So not about taking a bunch of trades, it's about taking a select few high quality trades where you are comfortable putting in or risking a lot of your money behind. And that's ultimately how you create a sustainable career in trading. Anyways guys, on a side note, really appreciate all of the positive comments on the vlog. I know a lot of the viewers on the vlog channel is actually from you guys. So just wanted to say a quick shout out, thank you for the positive word. And if you haven't already checked out the vlog, what are you waiting for? Check it out. Second link in the description box below. I'll see you guys in the next one. Bye bye.