The Art Of Crypto reviews a recent Bitcoin trade and breaks down three likely intraday scenarios using higher-timeframe bias and order-flow analysis. The channel has hit an 80% win-rate since February. Watch for NFP volatility as a timing risk, and expect targets around 2R with support near 94,000.
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What's good, everybody? Welcome back to another video. Yesterday's bitcoin setup was so picture perfect, like I couldn't have said it better myself. You guys remember yesterday I said that if there was going to be a setup yesterday, it's probably like this is probably the most obvious one and probably going to be the only one. And indeed, once we broke out of it, we confirmed the changes there. Delivery, retrace back into the order block. Boom. To our instant, easy, clean. Of course, there is always this target right here which will give you a 2.5 R. So this, I think, remains the intraday type of trade for today. Open and close within the hour. My only hope was that I could have gotten the video out sooner for you guys. And the bias yesterday was also picture perfect in the sense that we were predicting price to go higher. And so today I'm going to give you guys the update. But before I do, it's time to update this. So yesterday we were sitting at 44 out of 56, I believe, with the five point win. And yesterday I asked you guys to let me know if you guys think it's a win or a loss. Over here. We have a win. Good advice. Count it. Okay, that's win, I guess. Hey, Casey, what's up? I guess I'm gonna claim this as win. Back to shirtless summertime trading again. Absolutely, man. I am shirtless at the moment that I'm recording this as well, which is also the reason why I haven't turned on the camera. It is getting hot here and it's not because of the winds that we've been pulling off. So count this as a win. Count this as a win. And one guy, Kevin. I respect the honesty. If stop loss with hit, no win, imo, no problem. Based on the majority advice, I'm gonna just count it as a win. Like so. That puts us a running total up to 45 and 57, I believe, which is close to 80%. And with the win from yesterday, that puts us up to 46 and 58, which I think we're definitely getting close to the 80% number. So for those of you who are new to this channel, welcome. Just understand that you are in the right place because these are all publicly called analyses. Basically, I give you a breakdown for the day and if it comes true, then we count it as win. And if it doesn't, then we count it as a loss. So far we're doing about 80% in terms of win rate since February. And I'm going to continue to, you know, Maintain the momentum and just keep going from here. So starting things off today on Bitcoin, it's time to first go onto the daily chart because we always start from the higher time frame before we go into the lower time frame. The big mistake people make is that they start from the lower time frame and then they got lost in all the noise and then they forget the fact that you're supposed to be trading in line with the higher time frame flow. And taking a look at the higher time frame, yesterday's daily candle closed pretty bullish. And so today the daily price is going to be towards the upside. But secondly, just understanding the fact that we are currently in bullish order flow at the moment, which means that even if you do not pump today, you would you want to be looking for retracement into bullish PD arrays or a sell side liquidity sweep that will ultimately lead to higher prices, which was the thesis that we came up with yesterday, which was exactly what we did in the trade yesterday, right? We looked for a change in state of delivery, for a change in order flow on the lower time frames and then boom, we ended up trading in line with the higher time frame order flow. There were, I guarantee you, there were a lot of people on Twitter and you know, wherever who are calling that this was, you know, quote unquote, a market structure break. And this is the problem that you run into if you only understand market structure and if you only study the lower time frames. Because if you were to have kept the higher time frame flow in mind, you would have been able to see that, hey, you're not supposed to be looking for shorts here. You're not supposed to be going into this bearish rev the gap or like after this quote unquote resistance got swept. You're not supposed to short from there because your higher time frame flow is where's the upside? You would not be able to see that if you were purely on the one hourly chart. That's why, that's why it's so important to keep the higher time frame in mind and always start your analysis off on the higher time frame. Now, understanding the higher time frame though yesterday because our daily bias was bullish, that means that today we are also looking for some kind of a bullish move. And immediately, based on what I can see from the one hourly time frame, I can see that we are in a bullish order block at the moment. We retraced back into it during the Asia session, at which point we started pumping, although London pretty much reversed that entire Asian move. And currently we are getting really close to the Asian lows. So I think even though today is going to be a bullish day, there are only really a couple of possibilities that this could play out. One is that you're going to go for another southside liquidity sweep, given the fact that right now it's about the end of the London session, right, it's about 5:30am so it's only about an hour and a half until the New York session starts. Anywhere between 7 to 10am you want to look for price to actually sweep this low right here and to give you some kind of a bullish reaction to to take a long. But otherwise if that doesn't happen, if you start, you know, coming into this level and then getting rejected off of this block, for example, during a New York session, then chances are you are going to actually go for a retrace, which would not be surprising. Like it wouldn't be alarming actually, because right now you have a daily fairfill gap right here. It doesn't matter if you go all the way, even halfway to this candle, as long as you're not getting candle closes underneath 94,000, you're actually still pretty bullish. I would even say that this is a daily bullish order block, right? So you can quite literally retrace all the way down to 94,000. As long as you're not closing below this, you're actually still safe. The bullish trend is still intact. And so today, even though the daily bias is supposed to be bullish, I could see a world where we do not get a pump and we just retrace into here, fill this in and then maybe Saturday we chop around Sunday, Monday, and then we start moving again. Now one thing to keep in mind, just to help predict whether or not volatility is going to be coming in, is Today at 8:00am we have non farm payrolls or as the forex guys would say, nfp. So today is NFP Friday, which means that more likely than not, it's going to be a pretty volatile day. So based on that, I'm going to talk to you about the first scenario. I do think that is probably more likely, although again, it's hard to say because you want to be looking at the behavior of price at certain timings. In this case, 7 to 10am, you either get a sweep here and you start pumping. That's going to be scenario number one. And I'm going to give you the exact breakdown on what to look for to confirm, you know, what a Pump is second is you break down, retrace, you do not get a change in order flow, and you continue going downwards. Now remember, you can go down any way until 94,000 and you're going to be safe. The uptrend will be safe. And in the third scenario is that we do not even touch this level in the first place. We are currently, if you guys remember, this is a bullish order block, right? Which means if we get a change in state of delivery above this block, right now, this can validate this as a bullish order block. Although would I take this as an A plus setup? Absolutely not. Why? Because right now you have one low and two lows. In fact, these are, you know, flat candles, which means that currently this is looking like kind. This is looking like a magnet for liquidity, for prices. Sweep everyone out before doing a reversal move. That's at least, that's what I think will happen based on experience. I've seen this happen one too many times to not, you know, call this. But if you do get a change in delivery convincingly and New York session, right, let's say in the next couple of hours, you pump, you retrace New York session, you know, 8:00am and then boom. This is also a likely scenario, which means for today you have a couple of setups. One is going to be right here on this order block, and you're going to target 2R at a very minimum. So that's going to, you know, be taking out yesterday's previous daily high, which will make sense. That would be the target for the daily bias, secondly is that you get a sweep underneath these levels, right? Maybe underneath this level as well. And then New York, you start pumping and then your entry is probably going to look somewhere here, stop here, and then your target 2R or even here for about 3 to 4 hours. And the third scenario is that you start breaking down and going lower. Now, again, it's hard for me to say which one's going to come true at the moment because ultimately, one thing you need to understand is that the job of a trader is to prepare for, you know, multiple scenarios. And when they do happen, it's like, boom. You just re and react. You're already prepared for it. And so with that said, though, I'm going to show you, like, exactly what to look for in the lower time frames in order to confirm what is known as a pump. And the key word here is that you want to pay attention to order flow. Order flow means that in bearish order flow, bearish PDAs, such as bearish order blocks and bearish fav gaps are being respected, right? That's bearish order flow. Basically from this point here, right, Price comes back into bearish order block, boom, goes down, forms a new bearish order block. All right? And it keeps going down, right? The bearish order blocks are respected. So in this entire leg here, you have bearish order flow. Now, this could be changing, though, because right now you are in bullish order flow. If you take a look here, you have your bullish order blocks, right? That's a bullish order block, is respected. That's another bullish order block. And currently it looks like it's being respected. Another thing that kind of points me towards the upside, by the way, and why I don't think this is going to be likely to happen, that I zoom into the lower time frame is the fact that right now, London, you have just taken out Asia Lows. For those of you who have been following this channel anytime within this week, you know, I have called more than one, you know, Asia AMD kind of setup. The other day was on Tuesday where we had Asia here. Then we manipulated below the Asia lows and a boom, right off we went. And currently it's looking like a pretty similar setup. The only problem is right now you've left behind relatively equal lows, right? That's the only consideration as to why I think, you know, you may get a sweep before price continues. But overall, like, just read the order flow, especially when you get closer and closer to the news, eventually, just giving you guys the scenarios so that you're ready for whatever happens, so that you are able to make money regardless. And speaking about these trading skills, in about nine days, I'm going to be hoisting a masterclass. Guys, this is absolutely free. I'm going to be teaching you the six skills that you need in order to go full time into trading. One of them is how to think in terms of scenarios. How to properly plan out scenarios in a way where you're not, you know, thinking about too many scenarios so that you start overthinking, but not too little so that you get fixated on one of those scenarios. And for those of you who have joined the masterclasses before, you know, this is two hours straight of value. It's not going to be any fluff, not going to be any bs. If you are struggling in trading right now and you're kind of stuck, you know, you should be making more, but you're not sure what the hell is wrong, then I would highly recommend you Sign up to this master class in the first link in the description box below. Otherwise, guys, the setup for Bitcoin today is well to be determined. You just want to look for bullish order flow once IDA bite, this bullish order block gets closed above, right during the New York session. Either that or once you get a sweep below these lows, you want to look for bullish order flow to confirm that you have a move. Chances are if this happens, you really want to see it happen instantly, right? Almost instantly. Because it's going to be 8am there's not going to be any news. It's Friday, it's the last day of the week. So if it doesn't happen instantly, then, you know, expect the day to end up being kind of like a retracement day and for this previous day's high to not get tapped. But ideally we see a change to set a delivery on A1 hourly confirming that bullish order block and then just for price to be delivered cleanly towards the upside. If you get that, then literally just momentum trade. But otherwise, right now we're wrapping up a very solid week with wins throughout the entire week. And if you guys love these analyses from the smart money perspective on crypto, then make sure you subscribe because I'll be coming to you guys with these videos more and more often. And drop a comment down below if you have made any money using the analyses that I have been giving you guys so diligently on YouTube. But otherwise I will see you guys in the next one. Take care. Have a great weekend. Bye bye.
