The Art Of Crypto breaks down two short setups for Bitcoin using order blocks and change of state in delivery. He reviews his rule-based system and applies the same bearish analysis to Ethereum and Solana, then invites viewers to watch live trades.
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What's up, guys? Welcome back to another video. Made it to Bali. Like, guys, how cool is this with the rice fields and everything? Definitely going to make the most of this environment that I've got to create all sorts of videos for you guys over the next couple of months, but otherwise, we're going to get into bitcoin today. A lot has happened between now and the time that I was flying on the way to Valley. I basically only just got caught up with what's going on in the charts, and there's definitely something interesting going on today. Besides that, we're also going to break down what happened yesterday because there's. It's a really good, you know, example to showcase how even though, like, yesterday was going straight out and then straight down, as long as you have a system and you know what to look for, you can still make some money off of it. But otherwise, yeah, let's get into the video. So kicking things off of bitcoin, just going back to our previous call, I think I'm just going to mark that as a loss because we were looking for longs during the New York session. Ultimately, we did get the chinky set of delivery, but I think just the fact that you would not have gotten a 2R out of this means that price just ended up chopping around. It was not something that I could foresee, or maybe I did foresee it because I did say that Monday was going to be choppy. The fact that there was no news, and that's ultimately what ended up happening. And that's a good, you know, kind of example for you guys, showing you, hey, ideally, you want to focus your trading on the news days and on Tuesdays, this is the kind of price action that happens. But otherwise, let's get into yesterday as well. Right? Just breaking down yesterday, I was brought the question of, you know, breaking down the trade from yesterday. So during a call just now inside Bootcamp, one of the students asked me to, you know, kind of give my commentary on the bias action from yesterday. And what's interesting is that this was actually fully in line with our system. So just to give you some context, the daily chart closed. Bullish, right? Was this daily open before the daily close? So it was a bullish daily bias, which means that today we're going to be looking for longs. Now, when you're looking for longs, ideally, you want to see London sweep underneath Asia, and then for New York to go the other way. That is an 8. And like an accumulation, manipulation, distribution type of setup, which I would have thought if I wasn't on a plane and I could actually make a video. But essentially once you got that changes state of delivery on the one hourly price eventually ended up coming back into this order block and around 9am that is when things started heading towards the outside. And that is a beautiful lean trade. If you guys managed to catch this, like even without my video, I want you to drop a comment down below because I know that some of you here have followed me for a really long time and at this point you guys are already catching these trades before I even call them. And super proud of you guys. But if you manage to catch this, if you manage to see this coming, basically everything is just in line with the daily bias. This is textbook playbook. It's the exact setup, it's the exact trading system that has allowed me to get at this point, 121 wins and then the last 152 videos. Accounting for the loss that we incurred on Monday, that's about still an 80% win rate. So yeah, if you guys managed to catch that, let me know in the comment section down below. I'm always super happy seeing you guys be able to learn and grow from these daily videos that I make. I've never once actually made a video like breaking down the system, but the fact that you guys are able to catch on just from the things that I mentioned in the videos, it's amazing. So yeah, that was the trade from yesterday. Basically you're just trading in line with the daily bias. We completely ignore this because this is no longer within the timing that we're looking to trade. This is also not in line with the direction that we're looking to trade. And so it's important to understand the distinction between wanting to catch one high probability move during the trading day versus trying to catch the largest move of the trading day, which is not what we're trying to do. Right? We're trying to, you know, be consistent. And as long as we catch one high probability to our trade, that's all we need. And so that brings us on to today. So just to start off from the beginning again, right now we have a weekly bearish close, which means our weekly bias is bearish, which means we are technically looking for shorts this week. Ultimately, we do not want to see price close underneath this level right here at 108200. If we close below here, that would signal a weekly change in state of delivery. This is not a good sign and prices are likely to continue going downwards. If that happens again, to be a Little bit too early to tell. At the moment. We have four days and 15 hours until the weekly flows. So we're just going to play things day by day. Just as we have the exact same approach, by the way, that has allowed us to catch all of these tops here. Like we were shorting during this high. Here we were shorting here we were shorting. Well, we're about to short today. Let me just break it down. So if you remember, on Monday's video I mentioned that we are coming into this bearish order block. And until you break above this bearish order block before you can flip this as into potential support, we are still bearish until otherwise proven. And at the moment you are seeing Price reacting very bearishly to this bearish order block. So we could not go short yet on Monday because we were still trading into bullish daily bias. But now that we have a bearish bias in a bearish order block within overall kind of like bearish daily bias. Like on the weekly chart you have not gotten CISD yet, but on the daily chart you have already gotten cisd, which means this is already looking bearish. And so the setup for today is going to be pretty straightforward. Going to look for shorts as for where the short is going to come from. Now we hop onto the one hourly chart. There are two ways that this could play out. A is that you have this order block right here. Well, I say order block more like potential order block because you haven't got a candle close underneath this level yet at 107900. Once you do, within the next 40 minutes, if you get a candle close below this level, then you're going to treat this as a future resistance, wait for Price to come back into it and you're going to go short in between the hours of 7am to 10am New York. That's going to be set up number one, which is just kind of like a continuation trade. Now setup number two, we're going to go into the lower time frame on the five minute. We can see that over here. London has swept out the range low. Right? This is the Asia low. That's the Asia high. London swept out the lows and apparently there are relatively equal highs above the Asia high right before some kind of five minute gap. So in the event that this happens and you get five minute change instead of delivery from that point onwards, this is also a valid setup. Right. Basically you're taking advantage of everyone that is potentially. Oh yeah, it's a breakable, very major resistance. Price is going to go up as everyone starts buying high, you get to sell to them and then obviously you will triumph in this situation. So these are the two setups. Both of them are busy pointing towards the downside. I don't know which could happen. It's not the job of a trader either to try to predict which is going to happen. I've marked out both of the scenarios. When you get into here is the timing window. As long as these conditions are met, you simply read and react accordingly. And that is, that's trading in a nutshell. Going up to the one hourly chart, you can see that the fertility gap does not align with something on the one hourly chart. In fact, the one hourly fairy gap is all the way up here. So I'm not saying it's impossible for price to come all the way here. But I would wager that this is the more likely scenario. Again, I'm not dictating, just telling you guys which could be more likely. But what I am doing is I'm just preparing myself for whatever scenario that could happen, obviously whatever higher probability scenario is going to happen and then simply I'm going to react accordingly. Now I will be posting live trades later on if you guys want to follow along with that. And I have already posted a trade earlier and it has already played out if you take a look here. By the way, if you guys want to get access to all of my live tricks that I do call this was gold where I mount this out and already this was a super clean trade. Basically price break, low Ciz and boom 2R could have evened in 2.3 otherwise. That is the idea on Bitcoin. Now let's start taking a look at Ethereum. So it starts bring things up on the daily chart. You have bearishness as well. At the moment Ethereum is looking stronger compared to Bitcoin daily. If I were to paint this picture here, you can see that Bitcoin is currently looking like this while Ethereum is looking like this, right? So Ethereum's looking a little bit stronger. Does not mean that we are just going to go longer. We are still looking for shorts because of the bearish daily bus going down into the one hour chart. You're basically getting a very similar setup compared to Bitcoin where you are breaking lower on the one hourly chart. So you either get a retracement into this own block right here, taking it down or you get a sweep of the highs before 5 minute CISD. Great down. That's going to be a pretty straightforward setup. I would however focus on bitcoin over Ethereum just because bitcoin is looking a little bit more weak. Which means that in the event that we do dump, I think we're going to see a bigger dump on bitcoin compared to ethical right now, just based on how the mafia is showing. Now. Secondly, you also have Solana. So Solana, you have bearish daily bias as well. And going down into E1 hourly chart, you have very clear order blocks, right? This is a prime example of how order blocks play out. So far you have retraced back into this order block and you're currently going down. In the event that you sweep that you close below this level again, you can look for shorts. Otherwise you're going to look for price to retrace into any of these order blocks in between the hours descent 7am to 10am and you're going to take a short, take a profit at 2R. As a trader you don't really need much more than 2R, especially heading into this day where for some reason like forex factory isn't even working. So I can't even show you guys like, yeah, this is the news event to expect. But at the same time the US government is also in the middle of a shutdown at the moment, so it's going to be tough to look at news anyways. But otherwise guys going to get settled in here in Bali and I'll see you guys in the next one. I'll definitely see you guys tonight during live trading if you guys want to join in.
